Suchergebnisse

AbstractFollowing the Mongol invasion of China, the Yuan (1260–1368) dynasty was the first political regime to introduce a precious metal standard and deploy paper money as the sole legal tender. Drawing on a new dataset on money issues, prices, warfare, imperial grants, taxation, natural disasters, and population, we find that a silver standard initially consolidated the Chinese currency market. However, persistent fiscal pressures eventually compelled rulers to ease the monetary standard, and a fiat standard was adopted. We show that inflation was high in the early and late periods of the dynasty but remained moderate for nearly half a century. We find that military pressure, particularly civil war, generated fiscal demands that led to the over‐issuance of money. By contrast, natural disasters and imperial grants did not trigger the over‐issue of money. Warfare was much more likely to increase paper money issues under the fiat standard than during the silver standard period.

AbstractDue to the server bed shortage, which has raised ethical dilemmas in the earliest days of the COVID‐19 crisis, medical capacity investment has become a vital decision‐making issue in the attempt to contain the epidemic. Furthermore, economic strength has failed to explain the significant performance difference across countries in combatting COVID‐19. Unlike common diseases, epidemic diseases add substantial unpredictability, complexity, and uncertainty to decision‐making. Knowledge miscalibration on epidemiological uncertainties by policymaker's over‐ and underconfidence can seriously impact policymaking. Ineffective risk communication may lead to conflicting and incoherent information transmission. As a result, public reactions and attitudes could be influenced by policymakers' confidence due to the level of public trust, which eventually affects the degree to which an epidemic spreads. To uncover the impacts of policymakers' confidence and public trust on the medical capacity investment, we establish epidemic diffusion models to characterize how transmission evolves with (and without) vaccination and frame the capacity investment problem as a newsvendor problem. Our results show that if the public fully trusts the public health experts, the policymaker's behavioral bias is always harmful, but its effect on cost increment is marginal. If a policymaker's behavior induces public reactions due to public trust, both the spread of the epidemic and the overall performance will be significantly affected, but such impacts are not always harmful. Decision bias may be beneficial when policymakers are pessimistic or highly overconfident. Having an opportunity to amend initially biased decisions can debias a particular topic but has a limited cost‐saving effect.

ABSTRACTMany firms offer consumers the opportunity to place advance orders at a discount when introducing a new product to the market. Doing so has two main advantages. First, it can increase total expected sales by exploiting valuation uncertainty of the consumers at the advance ordering stage. Second, total sales can be estimated more accurately based on the observed advance orders, reducing the need for safety stock and thereby obsolescence cost. In this research, we derive new insights into trading off these benefits against the loss in revenue from selling at a discount at the advance stage. In particular, we are the first to explore whether firms should advertise the advance ordering opportunity. We obtain several structural insights into the optimal policy, which we show is driven by two dimensions: the fraction of consumers who potentially buy in advance (i.e., strategic consumers) and the size of the discount needed to make them buy in advance. If the discount is below some threshold, then firms should sell in advance and they should advertise that option if the fraction of strategic consumers is sufficiently large. If the discount is above the threshold, then firms should not advertise and only sell in advance if the fraction of strategic consumers is sufficiently small. Graphical displays based on the two dimensions provide further insights.

Narrative skills are essential for children's social development. However, existing research primarily focuses on narratives' impact on children's cognitive abilities, with limited attention given to the relationship between narrative skills and peer interactions. This study aims to explore how oral and written narrative skills are associated with peer relations from a social perspective. 166 Chinese primary school children were randomly assigned to tasks of oral and written narratives, as well as peer nominations. Results indicate that grade 5 students performed significantly better than grade 3 students in both written and oral narrative tasks. Moreover, the level of written narrative proficiency surpassed that of oral skills. Significant interactions were also found among grade level, gender, and narrative modes. Crucially, narrative skills exhibited positive correlations with peer nominations, with stronger correlations seen for written narratives. These findings have important implications for narrative research and language instruction.