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Specific theoretical conditions for the success or failure of extended immediate deterrence (EID) are identified based on assumptions about rational action. The resultant decision theoretic model yields four hypotheses which are tested against cases of EID between 1885 and 1970. The hypotheses are strongly supported, with about 77% of outcomes correctly predicted. In addition, the article distinguishes between two qualitatively different situations in which the model leads us to expect a defender's policy of extended immediate deterrence to succeed or fail. The results are contrasted with Huth's 1988 analysis. The formally derived hypotheses of this analysis fit the data as well as Huth's probit model. The percentage of correct predictions in the model here is slightly, but not statistically significantly, lower than that in Huth's, and the model presented here is more parsimonious than Huth's. Thus the model here seems to be a preferable construct of decision making during extended immediate deterrence situations.

Represents Chinese foreign policy as a function of domestic political considerations and applies that model to the Spratly Islands dispute, forecasting China's policy. Finds low prospects of war.

A major obstacle that hinders medical and social research is the lack of reliable data due to people's reluctance to reveal private information to strangers. Fortunately, statistical inference always targets a well-defined population rather than a particular individual subject and, in many current applications, data can be collected using a web-based system or other mobile devices. These two characteristics enable us to develop a data collection method, called triple matrix-masking (TM$^2$), which offers strong privacy protection with an immediate matrix transformation so that even the researchers cannot see the data, and then further uses matrix transformations to guarantee that the data will still be analyzable by standard statistical methods. The entities involved in the proposed process are a masking service provider who receives the initially masked data and then applies another mask, and the data collectors who partially decrypt the now doubly masked data and then apply a third mask before releasing the data to the public. A critical feature of the method is that the keys to generate the matrices are held separately. This ensures that nobody sees the actual data, but because of the specially designed transformations, statistical inference on parameters of interest can be conducted with the same results as if the original data were used. Hence the TM$^2$ method hides sensitive data with no efficiency loss for statistical inference of binary and normal data, which improves over Warner's randomized response technique. In addition, we add several features to the proposed procedure: an error checking mechanism is built into the data collection process in order to make sure that the masked data used for analysis are an appropriate transformation of the original data; and a partial masking technique is introduced to grant data users access to non-sensitive personal information while sensitive information remains hidden.

openAccessArticle: False ; Page Range: S27-S27 ; doi:10.1016/j.spinee.2012.08.093 ; Harvest Date: 2016-01-12 15:10:49 ; issueName: Proceedings of the 27th Annual Meeting of the North American Spine Society ; cover date: 2012-09-01 ; pubType: Outstanding Paper: Value Runner-Up (Not Presented)

Abstract Background Effective strategies for the primary prevention of low back pain (LBP) remain elusive with few large-scale clinical trials investigating exercise and education approaches. The purpose of this trial was to determine whether core stabilization alone or in combination with psychosocial education prevented incidence of low back pain in comparison to traditional lumbar exercise. Methods The Prevention of Low Back Pain in the Military study was a cluster randomized clinical study with four intervention arms and a two-year follow-up. Participants were recruited from a military training setting from 2007 to 2008. Soldiers in 20 consecutive companies were considered for eligibility (n = 7,616). Of those, 1,741 were ineligible and 1,550 were eligible but refused participation. For the 4,325 Soldiers enrolled with no previous history of LBP average age was 22.0 years (SD = 4.2) and there were 3,082 males (71.3%). Companies were randomly assigned to receive traditional lumbar exercise, traditional lumbar exercise with psychosocial education, core stabilization exercise, or core stabilization with psychosocial education, The psychosocial education session occurred during one session and the exercise programs were done daily for 5 minutes over 12 weeks. The primary outcome for this trial was incidence of low back pain resulting in the seeking of health care. Results There were no adverse events reported. Evaluable patient analysis (4,147/4,325 provided data) indicated no differences in low back incidence resulting in the seeking of health care between those receiving the traditional exercise and core stabilization exercise programs. However, brief psychosocial education prevented low back pain episodes regardless of the assigned exercise approach, resulting in a 3.3% (95% CI: 1.1 to 5.5%) decrease over two years (numbers needed to treat (NNT) = 30.3, 95% CI = 18.2 to 90.9). Conclusions Core stabilization has been advocated as preventative, but offered no such benefit when compared to traditional lumbar exercise in this trial. Instead, a brief psychosocial education program that reduced fear and threat of low back pain decreased incidence of low back pain resulting in the seeking of health care. Since this trial was conducted in a military setting, future studies are necessary to determine if these findings can be translated into civilian populations. Trial Registration NCT00373009 at ClinicalTrials.gov - http://clinicaltrials.gov/

The general population has a pessimistic view of low back pain (LBP), and evidence-based information has been used to positively influence LBP beliefs in previously reported mass media studies. However, there is a lack of randomized trials investigating whether LBP beliefs can be modified in primary prevention settings. This cluster randomized clinical trial investigated the effect of an evidence-based psychosocial educational program (PSEP) on LBP beliefs for soldiers completing military training. A military setting was selected for this clinical trial, because LBP is a common cause of soldier disability. Companies of soldiers (n = 3,792) were recruited, and cluster randomized to receive a PSEP or no education (control group, CG). The PSEP consisted of an interactive seminar, and soldiers were issued the Back Book for reference material. The primary outcome measure was the back beliefs questionnaire (BBQ), which assesses inevitable consequences of and ability to cope with LBP. The BBQ was administered before randomization and 12 weeks later. A linear mixed model was fitted for the BBQ at the 12-week follow-up, and a generalized linear mixed model was fitted for the dichotomous outcomes on BBQ change of greater than two points. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for drop out. BBQ scores (potential range: 9–45) improved significantly from baseline of 25.6 ± 5.7 (mean ± SD) to 26.9 ± 6.2 for those receiving the PSEP, while there was a significant decline from 26.1 ± 5.7 to 25.6 ± 6.0 for those in the CG. The adjusted mean BBQ score at follow-up for those receiving the PSEP was 1.49 points higher than those in the CG (P < 0.0001). The adjusted odds ratio of BBQ improvement of greater than two points for those receiving the PSEP was 1.51 (95% CI = 1.22–1.86) times that of those in the CG. BBQ improvement was also mildly associated with race and college education. Sensitivity analyses suggested minimal influence of drop out. In conclusion, soldiers that received the PSEP had an improvement in their ...