Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Pattern Informatics (PI) algorithm uses earthquake catalogues for estimating the increase of the probability of strong earthquakes. The main measure in the algorithm is the number of earthquakes above a threshold magnitude. Since aftershocks occupy a significant proportion of the total number of earthquakes, whether de-clustering affects the performance of the forecast is one of the concerns in the application of this algorithm. This problem is of special interest after a great earthquake, when aftershocks become predominant in regional seismic activity. To investigate this problem, the PI forecasts are systematically analyzed for the Sichuan-Yunnan region of southwest China. In this region there have occurred some earthquakes larger than MS 7.0, including the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In the analysis, the epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model was used for de-clustering. The PI algorithm was revised to consider de-clustering, by replacing the number of earthquakes by the sum of the ETAS-assessed probability for an event to be a "background event" or a "clustering event". Case studies indicate that when an intense aftershock sequence is included in the "sliding time window", the hotspot picture may vary, and the variation lasts for about one year. PI forecasts seem to be affected by the aftershock sequence included in the "anomaly identifying window", and the PI forecast using "background events" seems to have a better performance.

Abstract. The b-value in the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution, which is assumed to be related to stress heterogeneity or asperities, was mapped along the Longmenshan fault zone which accommodated the 12 May 2008, Wenchuan, MS 8.0 earthquake. Spatial distributions of b-value before and after the Wenchuan earthquake, respectively, were compared with the slip distribution of the mainshock. It is shown that the mainshock rupture nucleated near to, but not within, the high-stress (low b-value) asperity in the south part of the Longmenshan fault, propagating north-eastward to the relatively low stress (high b-value) region. Due to the significant difference between the rupture process results from different sources, the comparison between slip distribution and pre-seismic b-value distribution leads to only conclusion of the rule-of-thumb. The temporal change of b-value before the mainshock shows a weak trend of decreasing, being hard to be used as an indicator of the approaching of the mainshock. Distribution of b-values for the aftershocks relates the termination of the mainshock rupture to the harder patch along the Longmenshan fault to the north.

Abstract. We obtained the time-lapse cumulative slip before and after the 29 November 1999, Xiuyan, Liaoning, China, Ms = 5.4 earthquake by using "repeating events" defined by waveform cross-correlation. We used the seismic waveform data from the Liaoning Regional Seismograph Network from June 1999 to December 2006. Two "multiplets" located near the seismogenic fault of the 1999 Xiuyan earthquake and the 4 February 1975, Haicheng Ms = 7.3 earthquake, respectively, were investigated. For the "multiplet" that occurred before and after the 1999 Xiuyan earthquake, apparent pre-shock accelerating-like slip behavior, clear immediate-post-seismic change, and relaxation-like post-seismic change can be observed. As a comparison, for the "multiplet" near the 1975 Haicheng earthquake which occurred a quarter century ago, the cumulative slip appears linear with a much smaller slip rate.