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Abstract. As the risk of a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40) and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3). The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire.

Context. Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) are restricted to six mountain ranges at the edge of the Tibetan Plateau. One of these ranges, the Qinling Mountains, contains the highest density of giant pandas and is home to ~20% of those remaining in the wild. Commercial logging and other developments have resulted in habitat fragmentation, and an efficient and powerful conservation network is now needed for the species in this area. Aims. This study sought to assess giant panda habitat and estimate the carrying capacity of this reserve network. Our goal was to improve the function and carrying capacity of the reserve network and facilitate population growth and gene flow among subpopulations of giant pandas. Methods. We use habitat suitability models to assess the efficacy of conservation networks. With estimation of carrying capacity by home range, we can reveal issues facing reserves and populations of endangered species they contain. Here, we define key habitat, linkages, corridors and overall connectivity and then use habitat network modelling and spatial analyses to design a conservation landscape for giant pandas across their Qinling Mountains stronghold. Key results. We found that 91% of giant panda sightings were in suitable or marginally suitable habitat. The total area of giant panda habitat present in the Qinling Mountains is ~1600 km2 fragmented across four key habitat blocks by national roads or other human activity. The current nature reserve network encompasses 71% of available suitable habitat and 62% of available marginal habitat, meaning a significant proportion of panda habitat remains outside the current conservation network. We found that giant panda reserves across this region are not equal in their carrying capacity; some reserves contain an overabundance of giant pandas and the wellbeing of these populations are in doubt. Conclusions. Our results highlight the potential risk of high densities and bamboo flowering events to the safety of giant pandas. With poor population size and heavy isolation, small populations will not persist without translocation. Implication. Redrawing the reserve network to correct localised problems may improve the function of the giant panda protection system, build capacity in the reserve network, and decrease human–wildlife conflict. We propose a new reserve and adjustment of the borders and region for three reserves.

Abstract. During the 12 May 2008, Wenchuan earthquake in China, more than 15 000 landslides were triggered by the earthquake. Among these landslides, there were 112 large landslides generated with a plane area greater than 50 000 m2. These large landslides were markedly distributed closely along the surface rupture zone in a narrow belt and were mainly located on the hanging wall side. More than 85% of the large landslides are presented within the range of 10 km from the rupture. Statistical analysis shows that more than 50% of large landslides occurred in the hard rock and second-hard rock, like migmatized metamorphic rock and carbonate rock, which crop out in the south part of the damaged area with higher elevation and steeper landform in comparison with the northeast part of the damaged area. All large landslides occurred in the region with seismic intensity ≥ X except a few of landslides in the Qingchuan region with seismic intensity IX. Spatially, the large landslides can be centred into four segments, namely the Yingxiu, the Gaochuan, the Beichuan and the Qingchuan segments, from southwest to northeast along the surface rupture. This is in good accordance with coseismic displacements. With the change of fault type from reverse-dominated slip to dextral slip from southwest to northeast, the largest distance between the triggered large landslides and the rupture decreases from 15 km to 5 km. The critical acceleration ac for four typical large landslides in these four different segments were estimated by the Newmark model in this paper. Our results demonstrate that, given the same strength values and slope angles, the characteristics of slope mass are important for slope stability and deeper landslides are less stable than shallower landslides. Comprehensive analysis reveals that the large catastrophic landslides could be specifically tied to a particular geological setting where fault type and geometry change abruptly. This feature may dominate the occurrence of large landslides. The results will be useful for improving reliable assessments of earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility, especially for large landslides which may result in serious damages.

Recent high-profile building fires involving highly-combustible external cladding panels in Australia as well as Dubai, China, and the United Kingdom have created a heightened awareness by the public, government, and commercial entities to act on the risks associated with non-compliant building structures. In this paper, a database of fire events involving combustible aluminium composite panels was developed based on (i) review of relevant major fire events in Australia and other countries, and (ii) numerical simulation of the ignitability, fire spread, and toxic emissions associated with composite panels. Through the application of large-eddy-simulation (LES)-based computational fire field models, the associated risks for a standardized two-storey building with external cladding was considered in this study. A total of sixteen simulation cases with different initial sizes of the fire and different air cavity widths in the exterior cladding assembly were examined to investigate the tolerable situations and their influences. It was discovered that for most cases, with an initial fire size greater than 400 kW/m−2, the fire will spread from the first to second floor before the allowed egress time period.

Transport demand management (TDM) measures are widely regarded as essential tools to deal with traffic issues. Their effectiveness has been under scrutiny. Packaging of TDM measures has recently received much attention from researchers and governments because it can achieve more complex policy goals and resolve the negative effects of single TDM measures. Many studies have examined the concept of policy packaging, the ideal packaging process, and potential barriers at the theoretical level. However, the way TDM packaging as a concept works in a real-world context has received little attention. Additionally, there is little methodology to analyse its characteristics from a dynamic and historical perspective. Therefore, this study provides a methodology for analysing TDM packaging in four dimensions (i.e., density, classification, interaction, and time). These dimensions respectively reveal how many and what kind of TDM measures have been implemented, how they interact in a package, and how these characteristics change over time. We examine this methodology through comparative case studies based on policy document analysis in two Chinese cities, Dalian and Shenzhen, both of which adopt a large number of TDM measures. The results show that this methodology successfully reveals the characteristics of case cities: both tend to put more TDM measures into the transport policy package to deal with traffic issues, but the package in Shenzhen is more integrative than that in Dalian. We also find that with the integration of packaging increasing, transport systems are becoming more sustainable, and Shenzhen performs better in this regard than Dalian. This methodology can be used to analyse policy packaging in broader areas and to examine its influence on transport systems in more case studies in future research.

Abstract. Assessing hydrological effects of global climate change at local scales is important for evaluating future hazards to society. However, applying climate model projections to local impact models can be difficult as outcomes can vary considerably between different climate models, and including results from many models is demanding. This study combines multiple climate model outputs with hydrological impact modelling through the use of response surfaces. Response surfaces represent the sensitivity of the impact model to incremental changes in climate variables and show probabilies for reaching a priori determined thresholds. Response surfaces were calculated using the HBV hydrological model for three basins in Sweden. An ensemble of future climate projections was then superimposed onto each response surface, producing a probability estimate for exceeding the threshold being evaluated. Site specific impacts thresholds were used where applicable. Probabilistic trends for future change in hazards or potential can be shown and evaluated. It is particularly useful for visualising the range of probable outcomes from climate models and can easily be updated with new results as they are made available.