Suchergebnisse

The article is devoted to major events in the history of the post-Soviet economy, their influence on forming and development of modern Russia. The author considers stages of restructuring, market reforms, transformational crisis, and recovery growth (1999-2011), as well as a current period which started in2011 and is experiencing serious problems. The present situation is analyzed, four possible scenarios are put forward for Russia: "inertia", "mobilization", "decisive leap", "gradual democratic development". More than 30 experts were questioned in the process of working out the scenarios.

The article deals with three possible scenarios of modernization - modernization from above, strong dash (modernization from below) and evolution (modernization from below but without a strong dash). The author points out that the last one is the most preferable for Russia, because step by step adaptation to new institutions mostly eliminates the possibility of a roll back. In the end the author suggests how could the economy develop in these diverse cases during the four ongoing decades.

The author argues that Russia needs modernization. Its essence is in the transition to the new economy. But the main factor which is necessary in this respect is modernization of social institutions. Russian society is not mature enough for the modernization. One needs to take measures in order to promote public confidence and social activity. The reforms require therefore a lot of investment, including public investment, into the transformation of social institutions.

While analyzing the role of the state in the economy the author considers functions of the state at the stage of modernization, their priorities in economic policy in relation to the chosen model of modernization. The necessity of active structural policy and institutional reforms is noted. It is argued that during transition to post-industrial economy state intervention is becoming more limited.

Currency inflow in Russia from raw materials exports allows taking into account high business activity to assimilate growing money supply transforming it into economic growth. Fall in business activity as a result of pressure on business led to saturation of demand for money. This considerably increases the danger of inflation growth and requires sterilization of excess money supply including the usage of the Stabilization Fund. According to the author's estimates, corresponding losses in GDP growth will equal 1-2 percentage points per year.

The article proposes the realization of structural reforms in the Russian economy. The author points out three sectors of the modern economy: the export sector, mainly energy and raw materials; the sector oriented at domestic market; the non-market sector, which includes, besides budgetary sphere, electricity production, gas industry and utilities. The idea is to considerably limit the size of the non-market sector at the expense of the said industries and broaden in them the sphere of competitive relations, leveling relative prices and hence creating additional stimuli to modernization of the economy.

The author on the example of the groups of countries (Western and Eastern Europe, Latin America and Eastern Asia) considers the connection of values and economic development. Spain has demonstrated serious advances in the system of values. The main factors are market reforms and democratization. Traditional Russian values seriously reflect relations of archaic society with agrarian-feudal economy and hierarchical structure of authorities. The Soviet system of values looked like a traditional one in many ways. In modern Russia under the influence of reforms and changes in the way of life the structure of value orientations moves more and more in the direction of liberal and productive values. As the author sees it formation of the productive system of Russian values requires time, continuation and completing of liberal institutional reforms, consecutive democratization, humanization of authorities, policy and social life.

Having analyzed the present state of the Russian economy the authors come to the conclusion that the only reasonable goal of its modernization is achieving high competitive capacity of production. External and internal competitive capacity is analysed in detail basing on broad statistics as well as competitive capacity of institutions and their changes, the adaptive model of transition economy. According to the authors implementation of competitive capacity policy as a national idea should take into account long-term perspective.

The article discusses the current stage of economic development in Russia. In particular, the authors analyze the problems caused by both the inefficiencies accumulated during the previous years, and the deterioration of the external conditions in 2014. They also stress the factors that can support and prevent the restructuring of the Russian economy and its further growth. In conclusion they list economic policy scenarios appropriate for the new situation.

This third, last article observes the dynamics of the development of Russia, the fourth of the BRIC countries, which have been analyzed in the context of the formation of its institutions and culture. Main factors that create a potential barrier on the way of Russias democratization and its transition to the innovation phase are selected. On one side, this barrier is lower in Russia than in other BRIC countries: bureaucracy is weaker than the Chinese one and there is no institutional separation of the society, as in India and Brazil, levels of education are relatively high, while oil export could bring additional resources for the institutional reforms. On the other side, Russia doesnt have cheap labor force which permits other BRIC countries to postpone the transition to the innovation phase of development. Will Russia be able to overcome the barriers to its development in the nearest future, and what is necessary in order to achieve this? This article aims to answer this question.

Following the issue of innovational potential of catching-up countries the authors consider the peculiarities of China, India and Brazil's institutions and culture. According to their opinion, these peculiarities can limit innovational development of the said countries. For each of them the limitations have their specifics, but when positive factors are exhausted they can become the brake to development. This issue is also important for Russia because it has its own limitations.

The article considers the role of innovations in the history of the mankind. Three stages of development are pointed out: agrarian, industrial and post industrial (innovational). Specific institutions and types of culture correspond to each of them. Peculiarities of the innovational stage according to catching-up and developed countries are discussed. The former will begin to lose their competitive advantages while approaching technological frontier. Institutional and cultural modernization of developed countries should correspond to the requirements of innovational economy.

In the next 30-40 years Russia has a real chance to enter the club of the most developed countries in the world. But for this to happen Russia should implement a number of institutional reforms and make changes in its way of thinking and culture in order to move from catching up growth to growth on the technological frontier and to deal with challenges of globalization.