Targeted Reduction in the Reserve Requirement Ratio and Capital Misallocation in an Agent-Based Model
In: FRL-D-24-01142
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In: FRL-D-24-01142
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In 2019, the Chinese government implemented the first round of the National Centralized Drug Procurement (NCDP) pilot (so-called "4 + 7" policy) in mainland China, in which 25 drugs were included. We conducted this study to examine the impacts of NCDP policy on drug utilization and expenditures, and to clarify the main factors contributing to drug expenditure changes. This study used drug purchasing order data from the Centralized Drug Procurement Survey in Shenzhen 2019. Drugs related to the "4 + 7" policy were selected as study samples, including 23 "4 + 7" policy-related varieties and 15 basic alternative drugs. Driving factors for drug expenditures changes were analyzed using A.M. index system analysis (Addis A. & Magrini N.' method). After the implementation of the NCDP policy, the volume of "4 + 7" policy-related varieties increased by 73.8%, among which winning products jumped by 1638.2% and non-winning products dropped by 70.8%; the expenditures of "4 + 7" policy-related varieties decreased by 36.9%. Structure effects (0.47) and price effects (0.78) negatively contributed to the increase in drug expenditures of "4 + 7" policy-related varieties, while volume effects (1.73) had positive influence. NCDP policy successfully decreased drug expenditures of "4 + 7" policy-related varieties with structure effects playing a leading role. However, total drug expenditures were not effectively controlled due to the increasing use of alternative drugs.
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BACKGROUND: In 2019, Chinese government launched a nationwide volume-based drug procurement aiming at reducing drug prices and saving drug costs through economies of scale, which aroused widespread attention. The first round of the policy pilot was implemented in 4 municipalities and 7 sub-provincial cities, referred to as "4 + 7" policy. In the "4 + 7" policy, 7 antihypertensive drugs were included. This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of "4 + 7" policy on the use of policy-related antihypertensive drugs. METHOD: This study applied single-group Interrupted Time Series (ITS) design. We used drug purchasing data from the Centralized Drug Procurement Survey in Shenzhen 2019, covering 24 months from January 2018 to December 2019. Antihypertensive drugs related to "4 + 7" policy were selected as study samples, including 7 drugs in the "4 + 7" List and 17 alternative drugs. Alternative drugs refer to antihypertensive drugs that have an alternative relationship with "4 + 7" List drugs in clinical use and have not yet been covered by the policy. "4 + 7" List drugs were then divided into bid-winning and bid-non-winning products according to the bidding results. Purchase volume, expenditures, and daily costs were selected as outcome variables, and were measured using Defined Daily Doses (DDDs), Chinese Yuan (CNY), and Defined Daily Drug cost (DDDc). RESULTS: After "4 + 7" policy intervention, the procurement volume of bid-winning antihypertensive drugs significantly increased (3.12 million DDD, 95 % CI = 2.14 to 4.10, p < 0.001), while the volume of non-winning drugs decreased (-2.33 million DDD, 95 % CI= -2.83 to -1.82, p < 0.01). The use proportion of bid-winning antihypertensive drugs increased from 12.31 to 87.74 % after policy intervention. The overall costs of the seven "4 + 7" List antihypertensive drugs significantly declined (-5.96 million CNY, 95 % CI= -7.87 to -4.04, p < 0.001) after policy intervention, with an absolute reduction of 36.37 million CNY compared with the pre-"4 + 7" period. ...
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