Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Background: In Hong Kong, there have been significant changes in suicide rates during the period 1996–2015. Aim: We aimed to assess the impact of change in suicide rates on life expectancy in Hong Kong. Method: A decomposition method was used to quantify the impact of suicide on life expectancy in Hong Kong. Results: During 1996–2003, the increase in total suicide rate made negative contributions to the increase in life expectancy in Hong Kong (−0.15 years), with incidence component and age component accounting for −0.17 years and 0.02 years, respectively. However, during 2003–2015, the decrease in the number of suicide deaths contributed to the life expectancy by 0.16 years, with the incidence component still playing a predominant role. Furthermore, the contribution mechanism of suicide varied across suicide methods and gender. Limitations: Apart from suicide, the change in life expectancy could be affected by various factors, which needs to be considered. Moreover, conclusions of the study were made at the population level rather than the individual level. Conclusion: Suicide has a non-negligible impact on life expectancy in Hong Kong. Understanding the contribution pattern of suicide and sustaining effective strategies for suicide intervention would contribute positively to improvements in Hong Kong life expectancy.

Assesses impact on age distribution and aging of the general population, based on a simulation of the population for 1981-1996, with projections for 2016.

Abstract. Background: A surveillance system for self-harm has not been established in Hong Kong. The existing data source has an unknown degree of underreporting, and therefore a capture–recapture method has been proposed to correct for the incompleteness. Aims: To assess the underestimation of the incidence of self-harm cases presenting to hospital in Hong Kong using a capture and recapture method. Method: Two different yet overlapping hospital administrative datasets of self-harm were obtained from all public hospitals in Hong Kong. From 2002 to 2011, 59,473 distinct episodes involving 36,411 patients were identified. A capture–recapture model considering heterogeneous capture probabilities was applied to estimate the number of self-harm episodes. Results: The estimated number of self-harm incidence was 79,923, equally shared by females and males. Cases of self-harm by females were more likely to be ascertained than those by males. The estimated annual incidence rate of self-harm in Hong Kong from 2002 to 2011 ranged from 96.4 in 2010 to 132.7 in 2002. Limitations: The proposed method does not include patients who required no medical attention and those where the patient consulted private doctors. Conclusion: The capture–recapture model is a useful method for adjusting the underestimation of self-harm cases from existing databases when surveillance system is not available and to reveal some hidden patterns.