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AbstractIntroductionCouples' voluntary HIV counselling and testing (CVCT) is a high‐impact HIV prevention intervention in Rwanda and Zambia. Our objective was to model the cost‐per‐HIV infection averted by CVCT in six African countries guided by an HIV prevention cascade framework. The HIV prevention cascade as yet to be applied to evaluating CVCT effectiveness or cost‐effectiveness.MethodsWe defined a priority population for CVCT in Africa as heterosexual adults in stable couples. Based on our previous experience nationalizing CVCT in Rwanda and scaling‐up CVCT in 73 clinics in Zambia, we estimated HIV prevention cascade domains of motivation for use, access and effectiveness of CVCT as model parameters. Costs‐per‐couple tested were also estimated based on our previous studies. We used these parameters as well as country‐specific inputs to model the impact of CVCT over a five‐year time horizon in a previously developed and tested deterministic compartmental model. We consider six countries across Africa with varied HIV epidemics (South Africa, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Tanzania, Ivory Coast and Sierra Leone). Outcomes of interest were the proportion of HIV infections averted by CVCT, nationwide CVCT implementation costs and costs‐per‐HIV infection averted by CVCT. We applied 3%/year discounting to costs and outcomes. Univariate and Monte Carlo multivariate sensitivity analyses were conducted.ResultsWe estimated that CVCT could avert between 54% (Sierra Leone) and 62% (South Africa) of adult HIV infections. Average costs‐per‐HIV infection averted were lowest in Zimbabwe ($550) and highest in South Africa ($1272). Nationwide implementations would cost between 7% (Kenya) and 21% (Ivory Coast) of a country's President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) budget over five years. In sensitivity analyses, model outputs were most sensitive to estimates of cost‐per‐couple tested; the proportion of adults in heterosexual couples and HIV prevention cascade domains of CVCT motivation and access.ConclusionsOur model indicates that nationalized CVCT could prevent over half of adult HIV infections for 7% to 21% of the modelled countries' five‐year PEPFAR budgets. While other studies have indicated that CVCT motivation is high given locally relevant promotional and educational efforts, without required indicators, targets and dedicated budgets, access remains low.

Background: The impact and cost-effectiveness of couples' voluntary HIV counselling and testing (CVCT) has not been quantified in real-world settings. We quantify cost-per-HIV-infection averted by CVCT in Zambia from the donor's perspective. Methods: From 2010 to 2016, CVCT was established in 73 Zambian government clinics. The cost-per-HIV-infection averted (CHIA) of CVCT was calculated using observed expenditures and effectiveness over longitudinal follow-up. These observed measures parameterized hypothetical 5-year nationwide implementations of: 'CVCT'; 'treatment-as-prevention (TasP) for discordant couples' identified by CVCT; and 'population TasP' for all HIV+ cohabiting persons identified by individual testing. Results: In all, 207 428 couples were tested (US $52/couple). Among discordant couples in which HIV+ partners self-reported antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV incidence was 8.5/100 person-years before and 1.8/100 person-years after CVCT (79% reduction). Corresponding reductions for non-ART-using discordant and concordant negative couples were 63% and 47%, respectively. CVCT averted an estimated 58% of new infections at US $659 CHIA. In nationwide implementation models, CVCT would prevent 17 times the number of infections vs 'TasP for discordant couples' at 86% of the cost, and nine times the infections vs 'population TasP' at 28% of the cost. Conclusions: CVCT is a cost-effective, feasible prevention strategy in Zambia. We demonstrate the novel, added effectiveness of providing CVCT to ART users, for whom ART use alone only partially mitigated transmission risk. Our results indicate a major policy shift (supporting development of CVCT indicators, budgets and targets) and have clinical implications (suggesting promotion of CVCT in ART clinics as a high-impact prevention strategy).