Suchergebnisse

Intro -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Praise for Reconstruction of Macroeconomics: Methods of Statistical Physics, and Keynes' Principle of Effective Demand -- Introduction -- Contents -- About the Author -- 1 Why Are the Standard Microfoundations Wrong? -- 1.1 Beginnings -- 1.2 Representative Consumer/Firm -- 1.3 Lucas Model-An Example -- 1.4 Economic Agent Optimization -- 1.5 Rational Expectations -- 1.6 Walras' General Equilibrium Theory -- 2 Statistical Physics and Macroeconomics -- 2.1 Variational Principle-Is an Inorganic Particle Fundamentally Different from Us? -- 2.2 The Method for Macro Analysis -- 2.3 Ramsey Model -- 2.4 Markov Model of the Business Cycle-An Example -- 3 Stochastic Macroequilibrium: A Microfoundation for Keynesian Economics -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Limitations of Search Theory -- 3.3 Distribution of Productivity as a Measure of Underemployment -- 3.4 Stochastic Macroequilibrium-The Basic Idea -- 3.5 The Model -- 3.6 The Principle of Effective Demand -- 4 Business Cycle: The Role of Aggregate Demand -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Analysis Based on Industry Data -- 4.3 Concluding Remarks -- 5 Demand Saturation and Economic Growth -Where Keynes and Schumpeter Meet -- 5.1 Growth Theory -- 5.2 Lewis Model -- 5.3 Saturation of Demand -- 5.4 Product Innovations and Economic Growth -- 5.5 Population and Economic Growth -- 6 Prices, Wages, and Monetary Policy -- 6.1 Deflation and the Economy -- 6.2 Monetary Policy and Expectations -- 6.3 Determination of Price -- 6.4 Individual Prices and Aggregate Price Index -- 6.5 Wages -- 6.6 Summary -- 7 Financial Markets and the Real Economy -- 7.1 The Neoclassical Approach -- 7.2 Mathematics of Asset Price Fluctuations -- 7.3 The Bubble -- 7.4 Difference Between Financial Markets and the Real Economy -- 7.5 Rationality in Financial Markets -- 8 Summing Up -- Appendix Pioneers.

This book explains how standard micro-founded macroeconomics is misguided and proposes an alternative method based on statistical physics. The Great Recession following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2015 amply demonstrated that mainstream micro-founded macroeconomics was in trouble. The new approach advanced in this book reasonably explains important macro-problems such as employment, business cycles, growth, and inflation/deflation. The key concept is demand failures, which modern micro-founded macroeconomics has ignored.

Introduction: a new approach to macroeconomics -- The methods: jump Markov process and random partitions -- Equilibrium as distribution: the role of demand in macroeconomics -- Uncertainty trap: policy ineffectiveness and long stagnation of the macroeconomy -- Slow dynamics of macro system: no mystery of inflexible prices -- Business cycles: an endogenous stochastic approach -- Labor market: a new look at the natural unemployment and Okun's law -- Demand saturation-creation and economic growth -- The types of investors and volatility in financial markets: analyzing clusters of heterogeneous agents -- Stock proces and the real economy: power-law versus exponential distributions.

Macroeconomic analysis of the 1990s. High growth in the past -- The 1990s -- Demand or supply? -- What type of demand? -- The "abnormality" of demand fluctuations -- Investment -- Investment to increase production capacity, and stock adjustment -- The recovery of 1995-1996 -- The fiscal policy error of 1997 -- The prolonged consumption slump -- Bad debts and the Japanese economy. Money supply and the credit crunch -- The bubble and bad debts: banks -- The bubble and bad debts: firms -- The background to the real estate boom -- Monetary policy and prudential policy -- The credit crunch of 1997-1998 -- Exchange rates. The fixed exchange rate system and the floating exchange rate system -- The determination of foreign exchange rates: short-run, mid-run, and long-run -- Purchasing power parity -- The pre-war Japanese economy -- The appreciation of the yen over the past 25 years -- Theories blaming the high yen for Japan's economic doldrums -- Japan's manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industries. Small and medium firms, and the self-employed -- An historical turning-point -- The agriculture -- Structural stagnation -- The labor market in the "ice age." Japan's rising unemployment rate -- The mismatch in labor market -- Labor mobility -- Underemployment -- The risk of falling into a deflationary spiral -- The aging of society and fiscal policy. Ill-advised fiscal reconstruction -- The alleged burden of debt -- The national burden ratio -- The social security -- Structural reform -- The future. Has Japan's potential growth rate actually declined? -- Demand and economic growth -- Japan's lost decade: what have we learned and where are we heading? The Japanese economy of the 1990s -- What must be done? -- The Japanese economy during the 1990s -- Macroeconomics policies -- Fiscal policy -- Monetary policy -- Japan's potential growth: The importance of demand-creating innovation

Introduction to the volume by Alan Kirman -- Part I Finitary methods of statistical equilibrium -- 1.Enrico Scalas, University of Sussex, "Continuum and thermodynamic limits for a wealth -- distribution stylised model" -- 2. Doyn Farmer Oxford University, Mauro Galegatti, Corrado di Guilumi and Shimon Landini, "Applications of statistical physics for rebuilding macroeconomics" -- 3. Raymond Hawkins, University of California Berkley, "Information, Inattention, and the Discount Function" -- 4. Juergen Mimkes, University of Paderborn -- 5. Hiroshi Yoshikawa, University of Tokyo/Rissho University -- 6. Yuji Aruka, Chuo University, Japan, "Aoki's Japanese textbook of stochastic economic dynamics" -- 7. Didier Sornette, ETH zurich -- 8. rank Schweitzer, ETH Zurich -- Part II Data driven analysis by econophysic -- 9. Hideaki Aoyama, Kyoto University, "Hodge decomposition of Economic Networks" -- 10. Yoshi Fujiwara, University of Hyogo, "Non -- self Averaging and Economic Network" -- 11. Yuichi Ikeda, Kyoto University, "Simple Interacting Agent Models with Reconstructed Economic Data" -- 12. Hiroshi Iyetomi, Niigata University, "Collective Phenomena in Economic Systems" -- 13. Hiroyasu Inoue, University of Hyogo, "Reactions of economy toward various disasters calculated by firm -- level simulation" -- 14. Rosario Mantegna, University of Parelmo, Eugene Stanley, Boston University -- 15. Wataru Souma, Nihon University, "Income distribution, inequality, and entropy" -- 16. Thomas Lux, University of Kiel.