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Ghana is in the midst of a severe but not unprecedented macroeconomic crisis. This paper helps to evaluate the government's policy options by (1) explaining the crisis' causes, and (2) comparing it to previous macroeconomic crises and the policies that corrected them. Two large shocks are to blame for the crisis: an increase in the fiscal deficit of about 6 percent of GDP and a reduction in hydroelectric production that has not been replaced with thermal generation. This latter is more difficult to quantify, but may be as large as 4 percent of GDP. While large, Ghana has recovered from similar shocks in the past, and with luck, should be able to do so now. But this will require reversal of the large increases in the public sector wage bill that drove much of the fiscal shock. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; CRP2; F Strengthening institutions and governance ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

Benefit incidence analysis has become a popular tool over the past decade, especially for researchers at the World Bank. Despite or perhaps because of the popularity of this method, recent research has pointed out many of its limitations. One of the most common criticisms of benefit incidence analysis is that its description of average participation rates is not necessarily useful in guiding marginal changes in public spending policies. This article considers a variety of methods for analyzing the marginal benefit incidence of policy changes. A key conceptual point is that despite the fact that the various methods measure marginal incidence, they do not measure the same thing nor are they intended to do so. There are many possible policy changes and thus many margins of interest. Each method captures one of these and so is of interest for some analyses and inappropriate for others. Empirically, the precision of the methods differs substantially, with those relying on differenced data or aggregations of households yielding standard errors that are quite large relative to the estimated shares.

Die im Rahmen des Programms zur Konversion der Auslandsschulden in großem Maßstab geleisteten staatlichen Transferzahlungen an die Privatwirtschaft waren überflüssig. Nur wenige Unternehmen wären wegen der durch die Abwertung entstandenen Devisenverluste in Konkurs gegangen. Bilanzverbesserungen bei den subventionierten Unternehmen sind nicht nachweisbar. (DSE)

Eswatini has notably high levels of poverty and inequality. Recurrent, negative shocks are an important contributing factor. This study assesses the performance of the largest social assistance programs in Eswatini, based on 2016/17 national household survey data. It examines the coverage rates of these programs, and their incidence and effectiveness in reducing poverty and inequality. The study also examines the association between program participation and negative shocks reported by households, in particular, drought and food price shocks associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño event. Across programs, benefits are concentrated among poor households. However, the performance of programs in reducing poverty and inequality tends to be limited because of low intended or actual benefit levels and shortfalls in intended or actual coverage of the poor. Households that receive program benefits are more likely to report a drought shock. Except in the case of emergency food aid, which is provided ex post, we interpret this pattern to indicate that programs tend to provide ex-ante coverage to those vulnerable to this shock. At a minimum, enhancing the performance of programs in addressing poverty, inequality, and the adverse effects of shocks would require that actual benefit levels equal intended levels (for example, by procuring sufficient food commodities to meet the needs of the school feeding program) and that intended benefit levels are fully aligned with program aims (for example, by providing grant amounts to schools that are large enough to allow for tuition-free government secondary education for orphaned and vulnerable children). Absent greater budgetary allocations to programs, addressing these benefit-related disconnects may require improving the targeting of select program benefits to poorer households such as by using a proxy means test. We simulate the effects of programs on poverty and inequality reduction from such hypothetical reforms.