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Domestic support is crucial for state leaders facing international challenges. Previous studies suggest that in both democracies and autocracies, citizens tend to support their government in resisting external coercion, and state leaders would pay high political costs for backing down, especially after they have publicly committed to standing firm. But it is also frequently assumed that the public would grow weary of international conflict and turn to peaceful settlement. Empirical research on how and why this presumed shift in public opinion would take place remains relatively scarce. This article tackles this issue by examining the dynamics of Chinese public opinion during the US–China trade war in 2018. With a two-wave survey of Chinese citizens, I explore how the government's strategy affected public approval through two causal mechanisms: the state's reputation for resolve and economic impact. I find that respondents' support for standing firm was strengthened by gains in reputation for resolve but attenuated by anticipated economic losses. I also find that respondents were more sensitive to the anticipated economic losses of a prolonged trade war over time and that respondents' preferences were constantly conditional on their pre-existing anti-American sentiment. These findings illuminate the nuanced considerations of an authoritarian audience whose calculations extend beyond sheer nationalist beliefs and dynamically respond to changing circumstances.

It is well known that regime types affect international conflicts. This article explores political parties as a mechanism through which they do so. Political parties operate in fundamentally different ways in democracies vs. non-democracies, which has consequences for foreign policy. Core supporters of a party in a democracy, if they are hawkish, may be more successful at demanding hawkish behavior from their party representatives than would be their counterparts in an autocracy. The study draws on evidence from paired experiments in democratic Japan and non-democratic China to show that supporters of the ruling party in Japan punish their leaders for discouraging nationalist protests, while ruling party insiders in China are less likely to do so. Under some circumstances, then, non-democratic regimes may be better able to rein in peace-threatening displays of nationalism.

AbstractIt is well known that regime types affect international conflicts. This article explores political parties as a mechanism through which they do so. Political parties operate in fundamentally different ways in democracies vs. non-democracies, which has consequences for foreign policy. Core supporters of a party in a democracy, if they are hawkish, may be more successful at demanding hawkish behavior from their party representatives than would be their counterparts in an autocracy. The study draws on evidence from paired experiments in democratic Japan and non-democratic China to show that supporters of the ruling party in Japan punish their leaders for discouraging nationalist protests, while ruling party insiders in China are less likely to do so. Under some circumstances, then, non-democratic regimes may be better able to rein in peace-threatening displays of nationalism.