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The evidence that capital controls adversely affect cross-border trade is debatable. This study proves that capital controls may support international trade by mitigating the negative effect of macroeconomic volatility. We use quarterly data from a sample of 25 emerging countries over the period 2011-2019. Using long- and short-standing capital controls dynamic panel models, and diversifying robust estimations techniques, our results show that capital controls alleviate the adverse effect of the exchange rate, interest rate differential, and inflation volatilities. The long-lasting capital controls «walls» are more effective than short-lasting capital control «gates». Besides, the effects of these controls are asymmetric regarding the financial development level and category of flows for which are applied, inflows or outflows. The study highlights the beneficial role of the macroprudential policy in supporting capital control actions. The results of this study have two main policy implications, the effectiveness of 'walls' controls and the importance of macroeconomic policy coordination.

Capital controls are seen as a means to promote financial stability or improve macroeconomic adjustment in economies with nominal rigidities and suboptimal monetary policy. Such controls may take various forms, including explicit or implicit taxation of cross‑border financial flows and dual or multiple exchange rate systems. Using a quarter dataset on capital controls actions in 27 emerging economies from 2010 to 2018, the study analyzes the effectiveness of capital controls (CCs) along different angles. Since the 2008 financial crisis, strengthening capital controls has allowed more monetary policy autonomy and exchange rate stability, verifying the Mundell‑Fleming trilemma model. Following CCs, the results show that accumulating international reserves may compensate for the loss of inflows and lead to more effective policies. Tighter CCs on inflows cause significant spillovers, specifically in the conditions of liquidity abundance. These spillovers originate from the problem of policy coordination of emerging economies and are mainly caused by capital controls being used as an instrument to manage capital flows. For governments that have to manage the risks associated with inflow surges or disruptive outflows, capital controls need to play a key role. ; Kontrola kapitału jest postrzegana jako metoda zapewnienia stabilności finansowej lub poprawy programu dostosowań makroekonomicznych w gospodarkach, w których występują sztywności nominalne i nieoptymalna polityka pieniężna. Taka kontrola może przybierać różne formy, w tym jawnego lub ukrytego opodatkowania transgranicznych przepływów finansowych oraz wprowadzenia systemu podwójnych lub wielokrotnych kursów walutowych. Wykorzystując kwartalne dane dotyczące kontroli kapitału w 27 gospodarkach wschodzących w latach 2010–2018, przeanalizowano skuteczność kontroli kapitału pod różnymi kątami. Od kryzysu finansowego w 2008 r. wzmocnienie kontroli kapitału umożliwiło zwiększenie autonomii polityki pieniężnej i stabilności kursu walutowego, zgodnie z założeniami modelu Mundella‑Fleminga. Wyniki analizy pokazują, że gromadzenie rezerw międzynarodowych może rekompensować utratę wpływów i prowadzić do realizacji bardziej skutecznej polityki. Silniejsza kontrola napływu kapitału powoduje znaczne skutki uboczne, szczególnie w warunkach nadmiernej płynności. Te zewnętrzne efekty wynikają z problemu koordynacji polityki gospodarek wschodzących i są głównie spowodowane przez kontrolę kapitału stosowaną jako instrument zarządzania przepływami kapitału. W działaniach rządów, które muszą zarządzać ryzykiem związanym z gwałtownym napływem lub odpływem kapitału, kontrola kapitału powinna odgrywać kluczową rolę.

Capital controls are seen as a means to promote financial stability or improve macroeconomic adjustment in economies with nominal rigidities and suboptimal monetary policy. Such controls may take various forms, including explicit or implicit taxation of cross‑border financial flows and dual or multiple exchange rate systems. Using a quarter dataset on capital controls actions in 27 emerging economies from 2010 to 2018, the study analyzes the effectiveness of capital controls (CCs) along different angles. Since the 2008 financial crisis, strengthening capital controls has allowed more monetary policy autonomy and exchange rate stability, verifying the Mundell‑Fleming trilemma model. Following CCs, the results show that accumulating international reserves may compensate for the loss of inflows and lead to more effective policies. Tighter CCs on inflows cause significant spillovers, specifically in the conditions of liquidity abundance. These spillovers originate from the problem of policy coordination of emerging economies and are mainly caused by capital controls being used as an instrument to manage capital flows. For governments that have to manage the risks associated with inflow surges or disruptive outflows, capital controls need to play a key role. ; Kontrola kapitału jest postrzegana jako metoda zapewnienia stabilności finansowej lub poprawy programu dostosowań makroekonomicznych w gospodarkach, w których występują sztywności nominalne i nieoptymalna polityka pieniężna. Taka kontrola może przybierać różne formy, w tym jawnego lub ukrytego opodatkowania transgranicznych przepływów finansowych oraz wprowadzenia systemu podwójnych lub wielokrotnych kursów walutowych. Wykorzystując kwartalne dane dotyczące kontroli kapitału w 27 gospodarkach wschodzących w latach 2010–2018, przeanalizowano skuteczność kontroli kapitału pod różnymi kątami. Od kryzysu finansowego w 2008 r. wzmocnienie kontroli kapitału umożliwiło zwiększenie autonomii polityki pieniężnej i stabilności kursu walutowego, zgodnie z założeniami modelu Mundella‑Fleminga. Wyniki analizy pokazują, że gromadzenie rezerw międzynarodowych może rekompensować utratę wpływów i prowadzić do realizacji bardziej skutecznej polityki. Silniejsza kontrola napływu kapitału powoduje znaczne skutki uboczne, szczególnie w warunkach nadmiernej płynności. Te zewnętrzne efekty wynikają z problemu koordynacji polityki gospodarek wschodzących i są głównie spowodowane przez kontrolę kapitału stosowaną jako instrument zarządzania przepływami kapitału. W działaniach rządów, które muszą zarządzać ryzykiem związanym z gwałtownym napływem lub odpływem kapitału, kontrola kapitału powinna odgrywać kluczową rolę.

Capital controls are seen as a means to promote financial stability or improve macroeconomic adjustment in economies with nominal rigidities and suboptimal monetary policy. Such controls may take various forms, including explicit or implicit taxation of cross-border financial flows and dual or multiple exchange rate systems. Using a quarter dataset on capital controls actions in 27 emerging economies from 2010 to 2018, the study analyzes the effectiveness of capital controls (CCs) along different angles. Since the 2008 financial crisis, strengthening capital controls has allowed more monetary policy autonomy and exchange rate stability, verifying the Mundell-Fleming trilemma model. Following CCs, the results show that accumulating international reserves may compensate for the loss of inflows and lead to more effective policies. Tighter CCs on inflows cause significant spillovers, specifically in the conditions of liquidity abundance. These spillovers originate from the problem of policy coordination of emerging economies and are mainly caused by capital controls being used as an instrument to manage capital flows. For governments that have to manage the risks associated with inflow surges or disruptive outflows, capital controls need to play a key role.

U ovom radu istražuje se odnos između deviznih rezervi (FER) i inozemnog zaduživanja (FB) u okviru upravljanja kapitalnim tokovima. Da bi se istražio ovaj odnos i ispitao učinak kontrole kapitala na devizne pričuve i inozemne dugove za 25 zemalja u razvoju tijekom razdoblja 1985. - 2019.godine, primjenjena su dva pristupa: model autoregresije panelnih vektora (PVAR) i tradicionalni model potražnje deviznih pričuva. Rezultati pokazuju negativnu povezanost između FER-a i FB-a, a smjer uzročnosti je od dugova prema deviznim pričuvama. Kontrola kapitala, kao uspješna politika za ograničavanje kratkoročnih tokova, ne utječe na akumuliranje deviznih pričuva i, suprotno, smanjuje kratkoročne vanjske dugove. Korištenje neto inozemne imovine umjesto deviznih rezervi ukazuje na različite učinke kontrole kapitala i stoga se nameće pitanje o mogućnosti točne procjene deviznih pričuva. ; The study explores the relationship between foreign exchange reserves (FER) and foreign borrowing (FB) within the framework of the management of capital flows. To investigate this relationship and examine the effect of capital control on foreign exchange reserves and external debt of two approaches are applied, the panel vector autoregression model (PVAR) and a traditional model of the reserve demand for 25 emerging countries over the period 1985-2019. The results show a negative association between FER and FB; the direction of the causality was from debts to reserves. Capital controls, as an instrument to reduce the short-term inflows, fail to restrict the accumulation of exchange reserves and conversely, succeed in limiting the recourse to foreign borrowing. Net foreign assets replacing foreign exchange reserves highlights different impacts of capital controls and raise the issue on a correct evaluation of foreign exchange reserves.

Upravljanje financijskim tokovima iziskuje odgovarajuću povezanost deviznih rezervi, inozemnog zaduživanja i kontrole kapitala. Ove politike smatraju se alatom za predviđanje naglih zastoja (SS). Stoga se u ovoj analizi utvrđuje pojavljivanje naglih zastoja / prekida financijskih tokova na uzorku od 200 zemalja u periodu od 1985. - 2019. godine. Vjerojatnost SS-a određuje se pomoću logit modela. Rezultati ukazuju na činjenicu da efektivno upravljanje smanjuje vjerojatnost naglih zastoja. Provedena je analiza utjecaja rizika prelijevanja na bruto domaći proizvod, potrošnju, investicije i nezaposlenost. Rezultati pokazuju štetne utjecaje na ove makroekonomske varijable. Nalazi potvrđuju da zemlje sa zadovoljavajućom razinom deviznih rezervi, malim inozemnim zaduživanjem i koje započinju s kontrolom kapitala prije pojave naglih zastoja financijskih tokova manje pogađa rizik prelijevanja nego li gospodarstva u nastajanju, jer su znatno ranjivija od bogatih gospodarstava. ; Managing capital flows needs an appropriate association of foreign exchange reserves, foreign borrowing, and capital control. These policies are considered as a tool to predict sudden stops (SS). Consequently, this analysis identifies the occurrences of SS for a sample of 200 countries within the period 1985 - 2019. The probability of SS is determined through a logit model. Results suggest that effective management reduces the probability of sudden stops. A spillover risk influence analysis was conducted on the gross domestic product, consumption, investment, and unemployment. The results show harmful impacts on these macroeconomic variables. The findings demonstrate that countries with a satisfactory level of exchange foreign reserves, small foreign borrowing, and initiating capital controls before the occurrence of SS, are less touched by the spillover risk than emergent economies which are more vulnerable than rich economies.

AbstractThis paper examines whether capital flow management and monetary policies effectively reduce credit growth in emerging market economies in the presence of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy actions undertaken by advanced economies. We apply a dynamic panel model with fixed effects to a sample of 21 emerging market economies from 2000 to 2020 using quarterly data and more continuous variables than in other studies rather than limiting the variability using proxies. We find that capital controls and macroprudential regulation, as tools of capital flow management policy, moderate credit growth. This effect is particularly shown in countries with tighter monetary conditions. Our main findings highlight the useful role of coordinating capital flow management and monetary policies. This role stands for both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. Lastly, we find capital flow management and monetary policies manage to control credit in normal periods, but their coordination is less effective during crises and high volatility periods. Robustness checks suggest that these findings are stable across alternative proxies used in the literature, thus providing additional support for the validity of our results.

n the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, international financial institutions have changed their views on the benefits of capital account liberalization and the management of capital flows. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) began to publicly express support for what have traditionally been referred to as "capital controls." The impacts of restrictions on capital flows have, unfortunately, still not been established, and capital controls create distortions if they remain in place indefinitely. The present study uses quarterly data on capital controls in 25 emerging economies over the period between 2000 and 2016. Through an examination of a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) with variance decomposition and impulse-response functions analysis, the study provides further evidence of some domestic effects of restrictions on capital flows. The results show that restrictions were more effective following the 2008 financial crisis and allowed for more monetary policy autonomy and exchange rate stability. Unexpectedly, the findings do not show any significant impact on international reserves accumulation. The study highlights the necessity of following the international financial organizations' guidelines to well manage external capital flows and to better coordinate macroeconomic policies in the hope of finding an optimal policy mix.