Suchergebnisse

When applying the contingent valuation method (CVM) in risk reduction studies, some studies report that willingness to pay (WTP) is insensitive to the magnitude of risk reduction while other studies do not. On the other hand, social‐psychological research has shown that the affect heuristic biases judgments on probability, relative frequency, and risk. This article examines both magnitude (or scope) effect and affect heuristic (or representation) effect on WTP for risk reduction measures against tsunamis by introducing two experimental (i.e., absolute and relative) systems with four different representations to evaluate public behaviors in two different scenarios of risk reduction. Two common denominators (100 and 10,000) are introduced into absolute risk reduction representation (i.e., "of every 100 persons, from present 2 deaths to 1") to form different formats (i.e., "of every 10,000 persons from 200 to 100," and "of every 100,000 persons from 2,000 deaths to 1,000"). There is little evidence that WTP estimates are sufficiently sensitive to the magnitude of risk reduction, but relative risk reduction representations may be better than the absolute one given in CVM mail surveys when the risk is small. There is a statistically insignificant effect of risk reduction representations on respondent frequency, but mixed effects on the monetary values of WTP at the level of 0.05. The representation effect of absolute risk reduction on the WTP value varies with the common denominator. The larger the common denominator, the less the WTP to reduce the risk of tsunamis, and the significance probability is improved to less than the level of 0.05 when the common denominator becomes large enough. The findings suggest that improved methods are required for estimating the rates of tradeoff between fatality risk and other goods among consumers.

The economic value of evacuation and its relationship with flood risk acceptability in Japan were studied by applying the contingent valuation method (CVM). Flood risk acceptability here refers to the extent to which people accept the occurrence of floods, in terms of scale and frequency. The economic value of evacuation refers to people's willingness to pay (WTP) for avoiding evacuation inconvenience because of its inconvenience and the potential for certain losses as a result of evacuation. Our main finding was that over half of the people (56%) who actually evacuated in a real flood situation reported inconvenience. The greatest inconveniences were the shortages of information and food. Evacuation inconvenience can be regarded as an important factor causing the low rate of evacuation in Japan. The WTP for avoiding current inconvenience was approximately half of the estimated economic value of evacuation, implying that the current budget for evacuation is too small and should be increased to improve the conditions of evacuation sites. The economic value of evacuation can be taken into consideration in the risk assessment process in order to evaluate the efficiency of risk reduction measures. Flood risk acceptability and home ownership are two major statistically significantly determinants of the WTP. Considering that those who accept flood risk have a lower WTP for flood risk control (ex ante measures) than those who reject it, it is reasonable to think that there may be a tradeoff between the public WTPs for ex ante or ex post measures.

AbstractThis paper intends to clarify the relationship among the important attributes of flood prevention measures and the effects of socio‐economic factors on the public preferences of selecting the measures based on the choice experiment approach. The experiment was conducted via a mail survey in the Toki–Shonai River basin of central Japan. First, the relationships among the five attributes (external flood reduction, internal flood reduction, early warning systems, environmental protection and willingness to pay for such countermeasures) were quantitatively clarified, and it was shown that an early warning system in terms of fatality rate due to floods was lowly evaluated by the public. Second, certain socio‐economic factors, like annual household income, flood experience, sex and distance to a river, had statistically significant impacts on the utility functions in our model. Third and finally, there was a statistically significant difference in regional model results between Toki city and Kita ward of Nagoya city. These results imply the necessity to implement localized watershed management in Japanese urban catchments, and to improve information provision and public understanding of flood risk.

Maintaining a young, well-educated labor force is an important strategy for regional economic development and social vitality. Based on a comparative study of China and Japan, this article aims to elicit 1) the factors that affect college students' employment migration preference; and 2) the differences between migration preferences of students from the two countries and the possible explanations for such differences. With the use of survey data from approximately 2,000 college students in the two countries, this study identifies region of origin as a key determinant of employment migration choice in both countries. The region of origin functions as a critical point differentiating primary and secondary labor markets for individuals, whereas the first-tier region in each country is a popular work destination. A one-way bottom-up migration from lower-ranking to higher-ranking regions is revealed in our regional hierarchy model. Findings suggest that Chinese students were oriented to employment opportunities and economic well-being while Japanese students were more inclined to consider personal lifestyle and local amenities. The findings imply that reducing regional disparities in economic development and income levels in China and enhancing urban service facilities in Japan may encourage college graduates to remain in their home regions.