Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was triggered by the Ms = 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 in China, threatened 1.2 million people downstream of the dam. All people in Beichuan Town 3.5 km downstream of the dam and 197 thousand people in Mianyang City 85 km downstream of the dam were evacuated 10 days before the breaching of the dam. Making such an important decision under uncertainty was difficult. This paper applied a dynamic decision-making framework for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM) to help rational decision in the emergency management of the Tangjiashan landslide dam. Three stages are identified with different levels of hydrological, geological and social-economic information along the timeline of the landslide dam failure event. The probability of dam failure is taken as a time series. The dam breaching parameters are predicted with a set of empirical models in stage 1 when no soil property information is known, and a physical model in stages 2 and 3 when knowledge of soil properties has been obtained. The flood routing downstream of the dam in these three stages is analyzed to evaluate the population at risk (PAR). The flood consequences, including evacuation costs, flood damage and monetized loss of life, are evaluated as functions of warning time using a human risk analysis model based on Bayesian networks. Finally, dynamic decision analysis is conducted to find the optimal time to evacuate the population at risk with minimum total loss in each of these three stages.

Abstract. A landslide dam typically comprises freshly deposited heterogeneous, unconsolidated or poorly consolidated earth materials and is vulnerable to overtopping breaching. A physically-based breach model is presented to simulate the breaching process of such landslide dams. The new model can predict the breach evolution, the erosion rate, and the outflow hydrograph. A spreadsheet is developed to numerically implement the model. The erosion processes of Tangjiashan Landslide Dam and Xiaogangjian Landslide Dam induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake are analyzed using the new model. The erodibility of the two landslide dams varies significantly along depth. The predicted key breaching parameters (i.e., final breach size, failure time, and peak outflow rate) considering the variations in the soil erodibility along depth agree well with the observed values. Further sensitivity analysis indicates that the soil erodibility affects the breaching process of a landslide dam significantly. Higher soil erodibility will lead to a larger breach, a shorter failure time and a larger peak outflow rate. The erosion rate of the breach channel in the depth direction decreases with increasing erosion resistance of the landslide deposits. In the two case studies, the key breaching parameters cannot be properly predicted if constant soil erodibility parameters along depth are assumed.

Abstract. During the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, a large landslide of approximately 30 million m3 occurred at Donghekou with a particle run-out distance of over 2000 m. This paper presents fascinating particle flow and segregation characteristics in the landslide process found through field investigation of changes in the soil particle size, density, and fabric along the particle movement paths. The soil particles experienced projection, long-distance flying, sliding, and rolling. Trajectory segregation, inverse grading, and particle crushing were found in the landslide event, which contributed to the heterogeneity of the soil deposits. In the initial deposition area, particles with larger diameters appeared to have flown longer. Materials from different sources mixed, forming more uniform debris. In the run-out area, the particle flow tended to cause large particles to travel further. However, particle disintegration and crushing led to more small particles along the movement paths and the observed characteristic flow distances of very large particles did not increase with the particle diameter, which is different from observations of an idealized granular mass flow.

Abstract. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based quantitative risk assessment methodology was adopted to evaluate the risks of loose deposits formed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake along a highway near the epicenter. A total of 305 loose deposits with a total volume of 4.0 × 107 m3 has been identified. A physical model was used to determine the failure probability of these loose deposits under six rainfall scenarios, assuming the loose deposits as infinite slopes. The calculated probability of rain-induced slope failures is verified by the recorded landslides at the same site during a storm in 2010. Seventy-nine out of the 112 rain-induced loose deposit failures are predicted by the reliability analysis, with an accuracy of 71%. The results of reliability analysis and information on the consequence of these rain-induced landslides enable the estimation of the annual societal and individual risks of the loose deposits. Under the rainfall scenarios of 30 mm/12 h and 70 mm/12 h, the estimated annual societal risks reach 8.8 and 7.5, respectively, and the individual risks reach 0.05 and 0.04, respectively, which are very high compared with present risk acceptance criteria. The preliminary assessment provides a benchmark for studying the long-term risks of these loose deposits and engineering decision.