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This article investigates the electoral constraints on the inter-party mobility of candidates. We argue that the prevalent mode of interactions among candidates, voters, and parties in local, district-level electoral markets shapes the strategic constraints faced by potential party
switchers. We suggest that strong linkages between voters and political parties reduce the market value of the candidates outside of their political parties, thereby constraining their inter-party mobility. These expectations are evaluated using candidate- and district-level data from Pakistan
from 1988–2013. The results show that the strength of voter-party linkages in an electoral district, as measured by the lack of electoral volatility and the extent of straight-ticket voting in national and provincial elections, has a positive effect on the propensity of candidates to
switch parties.

AbstractPrevalent models of issue voting view vote choice as a choice among party policies. Choice sets are implicitly assumed to be the same for all voters, and their composition is left to researchers' discretion. This article aims to relax such assumptions by presenting a model with a varying probability of inclusion in the choice set. We apply the "constrained choice conditional logistic regression" to survey data from the 1989 parliamentary election in Norway to examine the effects of party identification of voters and electoral viability and policy extremity of parties on individual voters' choice set compositions. Further, we look into the effect of parties' policy positions on their electoral fates under alternative assumptions about the composition of voters' choice sets. We find that voters' choice set composition conditions both the effects of their policy considerations on vote choice and those of parties' policy offerings on their electoral fates.

AbstractThis essay examines the influence of the informal economy on the reach of government interventions in public health crises. It reports the results of an analysis of the self‐reported suspension of business operations during the pandemic, as well as a district‐level analysis of the changing patterns in community movement in response to the lockdown in India in March 2020. We find that informal establishments were less likely to suspend their operations and that the prevalence of the informal economy weakened the behavioral response of the communities to social distancing measures. In addition to bringing to light an understudied facet of the societal response to the COVID‐19 pandemic, this result demonstrates the importance of economic institutions for understanding public governance.

AbstractIn recent decades, political science literature has experienced significant growth in the popularity of nonlinear models with multiplicative interaction terms. When one or more constitutive variables are not binary, most studies report the marginal effect of the variable of interest at its sample mean while allowing the other constitutive variable/s to vary along its range and holding all other covariates constant at their means, modes, or medians. In this article, we argue that this conventional approach is not always the most suitable since the marginal effect of a variable at its sample mean might not be sufficiently representative of its prevalent effect at a specific value of the conditioning variable and might produce excessively model-dependent predictions. We propose two procedures to help researchers gain a better understanding of how the typical effect of the variable of interest varies as a function of the conditioning variable: (1) computing and plotting the marginal effects at all in-sample combinations of the values of the constitutive variables and (2) computing and plotting what we call the "Distribution-Weighted Average Marginal Effect" over the values of the conditioning variable.

Abstract
Precarity is often evoked in discussions about the rise of populism, but there is a dearth of systematic operationalization of the sociological concept of insecurity in populist research. This study fills this gap by theorizing about and empirically linking work-related and financial insecurity to populist outlook and voting in ten European countries. We propose a theoretical framework that links insecurity, respectively, to populist attitudes (symbolic link) and to populist voting (instrumental link). Our empirical investigation of 10 European countries finds a positive association between work and financial insecurity and populist outlook (people-centrism and anti-elitism, in particular) in all our case study countries. Precarity explains votes for Radical Populist Right and Radical Populist Left in all cases except populist right voting in Poland, Hungary, and Italy. Among the dimensions of precarity, financial insecurity and insecurity of work conditions show a particularly significant association with populist attitudes and voting, while the insecurity of tenure provides mixed results. These results suggest that insecurity may have an effect on the diffusion of populist attitudes and populist voting. It also indicates that populist outlook and voting should be investigated by not simply examining the insecurity of tenure but also using measures of insecurity that capture the conditions of work and financial insecurity of individuals.

This essay examines the policy response of the federal and regional governments in federations to the COVID-19 crisis. We theorize that the COVID-19 policy response in federations is an outcome of strategic interaction among the federal and regional incumbents in the shadow of their varying accountability for health and the repercussions from the disruptive consequences of public health measures. Using the data from the COVID-19 Public Health Protective Policy Index Project, we study how the variables suggested by our theory correlate with the overall stringency of public health measures in federations as well as the contribution of the federal government to the making of these policies. Our results suggest that the public health measures taken in federations are at least as stringent as those in non-federations, and there is a cluster of federations on which a bulk of crisis policy making is carried by subnational governments. We find that the contribution of the federal government is, on average, higher in parliamentary systems; it appears to decline with the proximity of the next election in presidential republics, and to increase with the fragmentation of the legislative party system in parliamentary systems. Our analysis also suggests that when the federal government carries a significant share of responsibility for healthcare provision, it also tends to play a higher role in taking non-medical steps in response to the pandemic.

We examine the roles of sub-national and national governments in Canada and the United States vis-à-vis the protective public health response in the onset phase of the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This period was characterized in both countries by incomplete information as well as by uncertainty regarding which level of government should be responsible for which policies. The crisis represents an opportunity to study how national and sub-national governments respond to such policy challenges. In this article, we present a unique dataset that catalogues the policy responses of US states and Canadian provinces as well as those of the respective federal governments: the Protective Policy Index (PPI). We then compare the United States and Canada along several dimensions, including the absolute values of sub-national levels of the index relative to the total protections enjoyed by citizens, the relationship between early threat (as measured by the mortality rate near the start of the public health crisis) and the evolution of the PPI, and finally the institutional and legislative origins of the protective health policies. We find that the sub-national contribution to policy is more important for both the United States and Canada than are their national-level policies, and it is unrelated in scope to our early threat measure. We also show that the institutional origin of the policies as evidenced by the COVID-19 response differs greatly between the two countries and has implications for the evolution of federalism in each.