Suchergebnisse

It is argued in this paper that the concept of operational deficit used in Brazil is flawed and that its current methodology of estimation is inadequate. In 1990, for instance, the government deducted an inflation of 1355% from the nominal deficit, but only accounted an expense of 837% as monetary correction in the expenditure side, to arrive at an estimate of a 1,2% operational "surplus" over GDP. It is argued that such number is illusory and that a better alternative is to use an ex-ante concept of deficit for policy decisions

Indicators for Brazil's real exchange rate are calculated using different definitions and focusing on what happened to such indices during the Cruzado Plan. The real effective exchange rate shows little appreciation in 1986 although the Cruzado/Dollar rate did appreciate. The result is troubling in the light of a 25% decrease in Brazil's trade surplus in 1986. The paper looks at the suggestion of a dual exchange rate regime for Brazil and concludes that such a system is likely to bring more instability to the economy

Por diversos criterios, a inflacao brasileira tem sido a mais persistente da historia. A duracao da inflacao elevada e sem paralelos: A taxa de inflacao foi superior a 50% ao ano todos os anos desde 1979, e tem registrado niveis de dois digitos desde 1957. Diversas tentativas de estabilizacao, de maior ou de menor folego, foram empreendidas, inclusive cinco "planos" abrangentes entre 1986-91, mas todas falharam. Em julho de 1994 teve inicio uma nova tentativa, com o Plano Real. Este trabalho avalia as dificuldades inerentes nos programas de estabilizacao brasileiros e os prospectos do Plano Real. (Rev Econ Polit/DÜI)

This article develops arguments in favor of recomposing the time to maturity of the Brazilian domestic public bond's debt and presents calculations on the amount of tax required by different terms of payment, assuming that it is rescheduled. Two alternatives are suggested and evaluated. Both yield a substantial alleviation of the interest burden compared to the present policy. The main conclusion is that with a dollar long-term interest rate similar to the ones observed in the international markets plus 2% of country risk and a 3% a year GDP growth rate, the domestic public debt could be paid in 20 years if a yearly provision of only 0.7% of GDP is allocated to its payment

A discussao sobre os fatores que determinam a taxa de cambio nao esta ainda assentada na economia. Este trabalho aplica testes de raizes unitarias e de co-integracao a dados brasileiros de 1855 a 1990 para testar duas hipoteses: se a paridade do poder de compra (PPP) explica o comportamento secular observado da taxa de cambio real do Brasil, e se mudancas nos termos de troca afetam a taxa de cambio real. Os testes de raizes unitarias rejeitam a hipotese da PPP absoluta, indicando a necessidade de se buscarem outros fatores, tais como as mudancas nos termos de troca, para explicar as mudancas na taxa de cambio real no longo prazo. (Pesqui Planej Econ/DÜI)