Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Coupled atmospheric–hydrologic systems are increasingly used as instruments for flood forecasting and water management purposes, making the performance of the hydrologic routines a key indicator of the model functionality. This study's objectives were (i) to calibrate the one-way-coupled WRF-Hydro model for simulating extreme events in Cyprus with observed precipitation and (ii) to evaluate the model performance when forced with WRF-downscaled (1×1 km2) re-analysis precipitation data (ERA-Interim). This set-up resembles a realistic modelling chain for forecasting applications and climate projections. Streamflow was modelled during extreme rainfall events that occurred in January 1989 (calibration) and November 1994 (validation) over 22 mountain watersheds. In six watersheds, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSEs) larger than 0.5 were obtained for both events. The WRF-modelled rainfall showed an average NSE of 0.83 for January 1989 and 0.49 for November 1994. Nevertheless, hydrologic simulations of the two events with the WRF-modelled rainfall and the calibrated WRF-Hydro returned negative streamflow NSE for 13 watersheds in January 1989 and for 18 watersheds in November 1994. These results indicate that small differences in amounts or shifts in time or space of modelled rainfall, in comparison with observed precipitation, can strongly modify the hydrologic response of small watersheds to extreme events. Thus, the calibration of WRF-Hydro for small watersheds depends on the availability of observed rainfall with high temporal and spatial resolution. However, the use of modelled precipitation input data will remain important for studying the effect of future extremes on flooding and water resources.

AbstractAir pollution from fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been associated with various health implications that can lead to increased morbidity and excess mortality. Epidemiological and toxicological studies have shown that carbonaceous particles (black carbon and organic aerosols) may be more hazardous to human health than inorganic ones. Health impact studies and emission reduction policies are based on total PM2.5 concentration without differentiating the more harmful components. In such assessments, PM2.5 and their sub-component concentrations are usually modeled with air quality models. Organic aerosols have been shown to be consistently underestimated, which may affect excess mortality estimates. Here, we use the WRF-Chem model to simulate PM2.5 (including carbonaceous particles) over the wider European domain and assess some of the main factors that contribute to uncertainty. In particular, we explore the impact of anthropogenic emissions and meteorological modeling on carbonaceous aerosol concentrations. We further assess their effects on excess mortality estimates by using the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We find that meteorological grid nudging is essential for accurately representing both PM2.5 and carbonaceous aerosols and that, for this application, results improve more significantly compared to spectral nudging. Our results indicate that the explicit account of organic precursors (semi-volatile and intermediate-volatile organic carbons—SVOCs/IVOCs) in emission inventories would improve the accuracy of organic aerosols modeling. We conclude that uncertainties related to PM2.5 modeling in Europe lead to a ∼15% deviation in excess mortality, which is comparable to the risk model uncertainty. This estimate is relevant when all PM2.5 sub-components are assumed to be equally toxic but can be higher by considering their specific toxicity.

Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been lacking for the region. Here, we project future hot spells by using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and a comprehensive ensemble of regional climate projections for MENA. Our results, for a business-as-usual pathway, indicate that in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 degrees C and higher) and will be of extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening for humans. By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population (approximately 600 million) could be exposed to annually recurring super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves. It is expected that the vast majority of the exposed population (>90%) will live in urban centers, who would need to cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions. ; This research was supported by the EMME-CARE project that has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program, under Grant Agreement No. 856612, as well as matching co-funding by the Government of the Republic of Cyprus. It was co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Innovation Foundation CELSIUS Project EXCELLENCE/1216/0039. ; Publisher's Version