Suchergebnisse

Abstract

Research background: The economics of incarceration is having an increasing impact on the economies of the world due to the rapid growth in the number of prisoners in the world The search for effective solutions that can help reduce government spending on prisoners in penitentiaries and at the same time ensure the safety of society is becoming increasingly important. These studies used the method of binary logistic regression to predict the probability of convicted criminal recidivism in the future.

Purpose: The aim of the paper is to build an effective forecasting model that, based on the statistical and dynamic data of convicts, will provide information for optimal post-trial decisions, such as the grounds for possible parole, probation or length of sentence.

Research methodology: The data were collected on the basis of statistical data of 13,010 convicts serving sentences in penitentiary institutions in Ukraine. To predict the probability of convicts committing criminal offenses binary logistic regression and ROC-analysis (Receiver Operator Characteristic analysis) were used.

Results: A qualitative binary logistic regression model has been constructed, with the help of which it is possible to predict the probability of criminal recidivism by each of the convicts on the basis of its individual values of the variables included in the model.

Novelty: For the first time in Ukraine, a model has been developed to predict the probability of convicts committing repeated criminal offenses.

The objective of the article was to analyze the legal regulation of the decentralization reform in Eastern Europe and its impact on the unemployment rate. Methodologically, statistical analysis, hypothetical-deductive method and correlation were used. It was found that the first stage of the reform of the New Civil Service in Poland, Ukraine, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Latvia, and Bulgaria began in 1990, but can be called an informal preparatory stage. It is determined that the process of implementation of administrative reforms is influenced by a series of factors: historical, economic, geographical. It is concluded that there is no positive correlation between the effectiveness of public administration and the effectiveness of local self-government in all the countries studied. The reform of decentralization has been shown to have a negative impact on employment. In addition, it found that Poland is the most stable country among those studied, with a high level of efficiency of local self-government. La more negative correlation between the efficiency index of local self-government and employment, and the most positive correlation between local and unemployment rate.