Suchergebnisse

Predictions of COVID-19 case growth and mortality are critical to the decisions of political leaders, businesses, and individuals grappling with the pandemic. This predictive task is challenging due to the novelty of the virus, limited data, and dynamic political and societal responses. We embed a Bayesian time series model and a random forest algorithm within an epidemiological compartmental model for empirically grounded COVID-19 predictions. The Bayesian case model fits a location-specific curve to the velocity (first derivative) of the log transformed cumulative case count, borrowing strength across geographic locations and incorporating prior information to obtain a posterior distribution for case trajectories. The compartmental model uses this distribution and predicts deaths using a random forest algorithm trained on COVID-19 data and population-level characteristics, yielding daily projections and interval estimates for cases and deaths in U.S. states. We evaluated the model by training it on progressively longer periods of the pandemic and computing its predictive accuracy over 21-day forecasts. The substantial variation in predicted trajectories and associated uncertainty between states is illustrated by comparing three unique locations: New York, Colorado, and West Virginia. The sophistication and accuracy of this COVID-19 model offer reliable predictions and uncertainty estimates for the current trajectory of the pandemic in the U.S. and provide a platform for future predictions as shifting political and societal responses alter its course.

Predictions of COVID-19 case growth and mortality are critical to the decisions of political leaders, businesses, and individuals grappling with the pandemic. This predictive task is challenging due to the novelty of the virus, limited data, and dynamic political and societal responses. We embed a Bayesian time series model and a random forest algorithm within an epidemiological compartmental model for empirically grounded COVID-19 predictions. The Bayesian case model fits a location-specific curve to the velocity (first derivative) of the log transformed cumulative case count, borrowing strength across geographic locations and incorporating prior information to obtain a posterior distribution for case trajectories. The compartmental model uses this distribution and predicts deaths using a random forest algorithm trained on COVID-19 data and population-level characteristics, yielding daily projections and interval estimates for cases and deaths in U.S. states. We evaluated the model by training it on progressively longer periods of the pandemic and computing its predictive accuracy over 21-day forecasts. The substantial variation in predicted trajectories and associated uncertainty between states is illustrated by comparing three unique locations: New York, Colorado, and West Virginia. The sophistication and accuracy of this COVID-19 model offer reliable predictions and uncertainty estimates for the current trajectory of the pandemic in the U.S. and provide a platform for future predictions as shifting political and societal responses alter its course.

Abstract
There is converging evidence that young blood conveys cells, vesicles, and molecules able to revitalize function and restore organ integrity in old individuals. We assessed the effects of young plasma on the lifespan, epigenetic age, and healthspan of old female rats. Beginning at 25.6 months of age, a group of 9 rats (group T) was intraperitoneally injected with plasma from young rats until their natural death. A group of 8 control rats of the same age received no treatment (group C). Blood samples were collected every other week. Survival curves showed that from age 26 to 30 months, none of the group T animals died, whereas the survival curve of group C rats began to decline at age 26 months. Blood DNAm age versus chronological age showed that DNAm age in young animals increased faster than chronological age, then slowed down, entering a plateau after 27 months. The DNAm age of the treated rats fell below the DNAm age of controls and, in numerical terms, remained consistently lower until natural death. When rats were grouped according to the similarities in their differential blood DNA methylation profile, samples from the treated and control rats clustered in separate groups. Analysis of promoter differential methylation in genes involved in systemic regulatory activities revealed specific GO term enrichment related to the insulin-like factors pathways as well as to cytokines and chemokines associated with immune and homeostatic functions. We conclude that young plasma therapy may constitute a natural, noninvasive intervention for epigenetic rejuvenation and health enhancement.