Suchergebnisse

To meet food demand after the failure of irrigation system developments, agricultural intensification is occurring in inland valley agro-ecosystems in sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural enhancement in inland valleys, which undermines environmental sustainability, was assessed using 'Driving Force–Pressure–State–Impact–Response' approach in four agro-ecological zones of Benin. The survey revealed that inland valleys are largely devoid of ligneous species. Crop residues are mainly transferred from inland valley fields to feed cattle, burnt in situ by the farmers themselves or abandoned to wildfires or to pasture—not mulched. Crop diversification is not universal and is limited to rice and vegetables crops. Monocropping of rice, practised by 83.3% of inland valley farmers, requires large chemical fertilizer application despite their impacts on environment including land degradation and water contamination. A major challenge is to determine means of characterizing entire agro-ecosystems of inland valleys in a way that is simple enough to be effectively and efficiently monitored. Inland valley agricultural development projects might include backstopping activities and policies that enable monitoring of chemical inputs and farming practices in inland valleys to reduce negative impacts on the environment and human health. ; European Union ; International Fund for Agricultural Development ; Peer Review

CONTEXT: Although rice production has increased significantly in the last decade in West Africa, the region is far from being rice self-sufficient. Inland valleys (IVs) with their relatively higher water content and soil fertility compared to the surrounding uplands are the main rice-growing agroecosystem. They are being promoted by governments and development agencies as future food baskets of the region. However, West Africa's crop production is estimated to be negatively affected by climate change due to the strong dependence of its agriculture on rainfall. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of the study is to apply a set of machine learning models to quantify the extent of climate change impact on land suitability for rice using the presence of rice-only data in IVs along with bioclimatic indicators. METHODS: We used a spatially explicit modeling approach based on correlative Ecological Niche Modeling. We deployed 4 algorithms (Boosted Regression Trees, Generalized Linear Model, Maximum Entropy, and Random Forest) for 4-time periods (the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2080s) of the 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8) from an ensemble set of 32 spatially downscaled and bias-corrected Global Circulation Models climate data. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The overall trend showed a decrease in suitable areas compared to the baseline as a function of changes in temperature and precipitation by the order of 22–33% area loss under the lowest reduction scenarios and more than 50% in extreme cases. Isothermality or how large the day to night temperatures oscillate relative to the annual oscillations has a large impact on area losses while precipitation increase accounts for most of the areas with no change in suitability. Strong adaptation measures along with technological advancement and adoption will be needed to cope with the adverse effects of climate change on inland valley rice areas in the sub-region. SIGNIFICANCE: The demand for rice in West Africa is huge. For the rice self-sufficiency ...

Inland valleys (IVs) in Africa are important landscapes for rice cultivation and are targeted by national governments to attain self-sufficiency. Yet, there is limited information on the spatial distribution of IVs suitability at the national scale. In the present study, we developed an ensemble model approach to characterize the IVs suitability for rainfed lowland rice using 4 machine learning algorithms based on environmental niche modeling (ENM) with presence-only data and background sample, namely Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Maximum Entropy (MAXNT) and Random Forest (RF). We used a set of predictors that were grouped under climatic variables, agricultural water productivity and soil water content, soil chemical properties, soil physical properties, vegetation cover, and socio-economic variables. The Area Under the Curves (AUC) evaluation metrics for both training and testing were respectively 0.999 and 0.873 for BRT, 0.866 and 0.816 for GLM, 0.948 and 0.861 for MAXENT and 0.911 and 0.878 for RF. Results showed that proximity of inland valleys to roads and urban centers, elevation, soil water holding capacity, bulk density, vegetation index, gross biomass water productivity, precipitation of the wettest quarter, isothermality, annual precipitation, and total phosphorus among others were major predictors of IVs suitability for rainfed lowland rice. Suitable IVs areas were estimated at 155,000–225,000 Ha in Togo and 351,000–406,000 Ha in Benin. We estimated that 53.8% of the suitable IVs area is needed in Togo to attain self-sufficiency in rice while 60.1% of the suitable IVs area is needed in Benin to attain self-sufficiency in rice. These results demonstrated the effectiveness of an ensemble environmental niche modeling approach that combines the strengths of several models.

Wetlands are abundant across the African continent and provide a range of ecosystem services on different scales but are threatened by overuse and degradation. It is essential that national governments enable and ensure the sustainable use of wetland resources to maintain these services in the long run. As informed management decisions require reliable, up-to-date, and large coverage spatial data, we propose a modular Earth observation-based framework for the geo-localisation and characterization of wetlands in East Africa. In this study, we identify four major challenges in spatial data supported wetland management and present a framework to address them. We then apply the framework comprising Wetland Delineation, Surface Water Occurrence, Land Use/Land Cover classification and Wetland Use Intensity for the whole of Rwanda and evaluate the ability of these layers to meet the identified challenges. The layers' spatial and temporal characteristics make them combinable and the information content, of each layer alone as well as in combination, renders them useful for different wetland management contexts.