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Working paper
Testing Richardson's Law: A (Cautionary) Note on Power Laws in Violence Data
SSRN
Working paper
SSRN
Working paper
Reputations for resolve and higher-order beliefs in crisis bargaining
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 65, Heft 7-8, S. 1378-1404
ISSN: 1552-8766
Reputations for resolve are said to be one of the few things worth fighting for, yet they remain inadequately understood. Discussions of reputation focus almost exclusively on first-order belief change—A stands firm, B updates its beliefs about A's resolve. Such first-order reputational effects are important, but they are not the whole story. Higher-order beliefs—what A believes about B's beliefs, and so on—matter a great deal as well. When A comes to believe that B is more resolved, this may decrease A's resolve, and this in turn may increase B's resolve, and so on. In other words, resolve is interdependent. We offer a framework for estimating higher-order effects, and find evidence of such reasoning in a survey experiment on quasi-elites. Our findings indicate both that states and leaders can develop potent reputations for resolve, and that higher-order beliefs are often responsible for a large proportion of these effects (40 percent to 70 percent in our experimental setting). We conclude by complementing the survey with qualitative evidence and laying the groundwork for future research.
World Affairs Online
The known knowns and known unknowns of peacekeeping data
In: International peacekeeping, Band 24, Heft 1, S. 1-62
ISSN: 1353-3312
World Affairs Online