Suchergebnisse

Abstract
Whether increases to statutory retirement ages will have the anticipated effect in countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) depends on whether workers have the health capacity to postpone retirement. Methods that were proposed to measure the capacity to work at older age are ill-designed to assess inter-cohort trends, which is important for determining whether the amount of years spent retired and in good health is keeping up with increases in the statutory retirement age. We propose to measure the capacity to work as the amount of time that people would spend working if they kept working until poor health forces them to retire. We find that American workers born in 1936–1947 spent 9.4 years working between ages 55 and 69 but had the capacity to work an additional 3.3 years. We further find significant inter-cohort increases in the years spent working but insignificant ones in the years spent able to work, which might point toward a decrease in the years spent retired and in good health. Increases in the educational attainment of younger cohorts have had a positive effect on the capacity to work, but the expansion of obesity a negative one. Finally, we find similar trends among men and women as well as among Whites and non-Whites, although the capacity to work is much lower among non-Whites. Our results show the importance of considering inter-cohort changes in the capacity to work when designing policies that aim at inducing higher retirement ages.

European regions experience accelerating ageing, but the process has substantial regional variation. This paper examines the effect of this variation on regional economic cohesion in Europe. We measure the effect of convergence or divergence in the share of the working age population on convergence or divergence in economies of NUTS 2 regions. The effect of convergence or divergence in ageing on economic convergence or divergence is quite substantial and, in some cases, is bigger than the effect of changes in productivity and labour force participation. Convergence of ageing leads to economic convergence only when the share of the working age population in rich regions exceeds that in poor regions and the former regions experience a substantial decline in the share of the working age population, or the latter regions experience an increase. During 2003–12, an inverse relationship between convergence in ageing and economic convergence was the rule rather than the exception.

Because of inconsistencies in the reported migration flows and large amounts of missing data, our knowledge of international migration patterns in the Europe is limited. Methods for overcoming data obstacles and harmonising international migration data, however, are improving. In this article, we provide a methodology for integrating various pieces of incomplete information together, including a partial set of harmonised migration flows, to estimate a complete set of migration flows by origin, destination, age and sex for the 31 countries in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2007. The results represent a synthetic data base that can be used to inform population projections, policy decisions and migration theory.

Because of inconsistencies in the reported migration flows and large amounts of missing data, our knowledge of international migration patterns in the Europe is limited. Methods for overcoming data obstacles and harmonising international migration data, however, are improving. In this article, we provide a methodology for integrating various pieces of incomplete information together, including a partial set of harmonised migration flows, to estimate a complete set of migration flows by origin, destination, age and sex for the 31 countries in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2007. The results represent a synthetic data base that can be used to inform population projections, policy decisions and migration theory.

Résumé La méthode de projection intercensitaire par génération (MPIG) a été mise au point pour estimer l'espérance de vie à la naissance année par année au cours d'une période intercensitaire. Elle a été développée parce que l'application des méthodes classiques d'estimation de la mortalité avait donné des résultats incohérents. Elle comprend trois grandes étapes. La première consiste à projeter par itération les structures par âge de la population d'un recensement jusqu'au recensement suivant, en posant diverses hypothèses de mortalité constante, jusqu'à obtenir des tables types optimales de mortalité féminine et masculine, reflétant les conditions moyennes de la mortalité pendant la période de projection. Dans la deuxième étape, on utilise les espérances de vie à la naissance associées à ces tables types et des estimations de leur taux de croissance pour établir des équations de régression qui permettront de calculer les espérances de vie et les tables de mortalité annuelles. Dans la troisième étape, on évalue la précision des estimations à partir des résultats d'une dernière projection basée sur les tables types de mortalité annuelles calculées. L'espérance de vie des Salomoniens estimée par la MPIG est de 61,0 ans pour les hommes et de 61,5 ans pour les femmes en 1999. Ces valeurs s'accordent bien avec les estimations de la fécondité et de la migration.

In the coming years, the share of the working-age population in the total population will start to decline in all countries of the European Union. All other things remaining equal, this so-called demographic burden will have a downward effect on economic growth. This paper examines whether the Europe 2020 employment targets would be sufficient to compensate for the downward impact of demographic burden and whether the impact of demography on economic growth differs between EU countries and between urban and rural regions. The results show that raising employment rates to the Europe 2020 targets can restore positive opportunities for economic growth, but not in all countries and only to a limited extent. They also show that even though urban and rural regions differ in terms of population growth and growth of the working age population, the prospects for demographic burden are highly similar for both types of regions.