Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Scientific evidence is critical to underpin the decisions associated with shoreline management, to build climate-resilient communities and infrastructure. We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on coastal impacts in the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events and a worst-case
scenario, modelling the storm surges and waves, suggesting a storm surge
might reach 1.5 m, depending on the underwater topography. Coastal wave
heights of up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent are
simulated with a regional wave model. We deliver probabilistic sea level
projections for 2100, with a low-probability–high-impact estimate of
possible sea level rise up to 2.2 m, exceeding the 1.8 m global estimate for the same scenario. We introduce a combined vulnerability index, which allows for a quantitative
assessment of relative risk across the region, showing that sea level rise
is the most important risk factor everywhere but wave impacts are important on windward coasts, increasing to the north, towards the main hurricane track. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively prepare for and protect
against climate change.

Abstract. This paper presents an innovative web-based decision support system to facilitate emergency management in the case of oil spill accidents, called WITOIL (Where Is The Oil). The system can be applied to create a forecast of oil spill events, evaluate uncertainty of the predictions, and calculate hazards based on historical meteo-oceanographic datasets. To compute the oil transport and transformation, WITOIL uses the MEDSLIK-II oil spill model forced by operational meteo-oceanographic services. Results of the modeling are visualized through Google Maps. A special application for Android is designed to provide mobile access for competent authorities, technical and scientific institutions, and citizens.