Prevalence data of respiratory diseases (RDs) in Central Asia (CA) and Russia are contrasting. To inform future research needs and assist government and clinical policy on RDs, an up-to-date overview is required. We aimed to review the prevalence and economic burden of RDs in CA and Russia. PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched for studies that reported prevalence and/or economic burden of RDs (asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cystic fibrosis, interstitial lung diseases (ILD), lung cancer, pulmonary hypertension, and tuberculosis (TB)) in CA (Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan) and Russia. A total of 25 articles (RD prevalence: 18; economics: 7) were included. The majority (n = 12), mostly from Russia, reported on TB. TB prevalence declined over the last 20 years, to less than 100 per 100,000 across Russia and CA, yet in those, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) was alarming high (newly treated: 19–26%, previously treated: 60–70%). COPD, asthma (2–15%) and ILD (0.006%) prevalence was only reported for Russia and Kazakhstan. No studies on cystic fibrosis, lung cancer and pulmonary hypertension were found. TB costs varied between US$400 (Tajikistan) and US$900 (Russia) for drug-susceptible TB to ≥US$10,000 for MDR-TB (Russia). Non-TB data were scarce and inconsistent. Especially in CA, more research into the prevalence and burden of RDs is needed.
In: Tabyshova , A , Emilov , B , Postma , M J , Chavannes , N H , Sooronbaev , T & van Boven , J F M 2020 , ' Prevalence and Economic Burden of Respiratory Diseases in Central Asia and Russia : A Systematic Review ' , International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health , vol. 17 , no. 20 , 7483 , pp. 1-13 . https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17207483 ; ISSN:1661-7827
Prevalence data of respiratory diseases (RDs) in Central Asia (CA) and Russia are contrasting. To inform future research needs and assist government and clinical policy on RDs, an up-to-date overview is required. We aimed to review the prevalence and economic burden of RDs in CA and Russia. PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched for studies that reported prevalence and/or economic burden of RDs (asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cystic fibrosis, interstitial lung diseases (ILD), lung cancer, pulmonary hypertension, and tuberculosis (TB)) in CA (Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan) and Russia. A total of 25 articles (RD prevalence: 18; economics: 7) were included. The majority (n = 12), mostly from Russia, reported on TB. TB prevalence declined over the last 20 years, to less than 100 per 100,000 across Russia and CA, yet in those, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) was alarming high (newly treated: 19-26%, previously treated: 60-70%). COPD, asthma (2-15%) and ILD (0.006%) prevalence was only reported for Russia and Kazakhstan. No studies on cystic fibrosis, lung cancer and pulmonary hypertension were found. TB costs varied between US$400 (Tajikistan) and US$900 (Russia) for drug-susceptible TB to ≥US$10,000 for MDR-TB (Russia). Non-TB data were scarce and inconsistent. Especially in CA, more research into the prevalence and burden of RDs is needed.
BACKGROUND: COPD prevalence and mortality in Kyrgyzstan are high. Data on clinical and economic impact of COPD in Kyrgyzstan are scarce. This study was part of the FRESH AIR research project that focused on prevention, diagnosis and treatment of chronic lung diseases in low-resource settings. AIM: We aimed to evaluate the clinical characteristics, treatment patterns and economic burden of COPD in Kyrgyzstan. METHODS: A representative sample of patients with a spirometry-confirmed diagnosis of COPD was included. All patients were registered in one of the five major hospitals in Kyrgyzstan. Patients were surveyed on COPD risk factors, health-care utilization and patient reported outcomes (CCQ, MRC). Associations with high symptom burden (MRC score ≥4) and cost were assessed using logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: A total of 306 patients were included with mean age 62.1 (SD: 11.2), 61.4% being male, mean BMI 26.9 (SD: 5.2) and mean monthly income $85.1 (SD: 75.4). Biomass was used for heating and cooking by 71.2% and 52.0%. Current and ex-smokers accounted 14.1% and 32%. Mean FEV(1) was 46% (SD: 12.8), 71.9% had COPD GOLD III–IV and most frequent co-morbidities were hypertension (25.2%), diabetes (5.6%) and heart diseases (4.6%). Mean CCQ score was 2.0 (SD: 0.9) and MRC score 3.7 (SD: 0.9). Yearly mean number of hospital days due to COPD was 10.1 (SD: 3.9). Total annual per-patient costs of reimbursed health-care utilization ($107) and co-payments ($224, ie, 22% of patients' annual income) were $331. We found that only GOLD IV and hypertension were significantly associated with high symptom burden. Exacerbations and hypertension were significantly associated with high cost. CONCLUSION: The clinical and economic burden of COPD on patients and the government in Kyrgyzstan is considerable. Notably, almost half of interviewed patients were current or ex-smokers and biomass exposure was high.
In: Tabyshova , A , Estebesova , B , Beishenbekova , A , Sooronbaev , T , Brakema , E A , Chavannes , N H , Postma , M J & van Boven , J F M 2021 , ' Clinical Characteristics, Treatment Patterns and Economic Burden of COPD in Kyrgyzstan : A FRESH AIR Study ' , International Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease , vol. 16 , pp. 2833-2843 . https://doi.org/10.2147/COPD.S322778 ; ISSN:1176-9106
Background: COPD prevalence and mortality in Kyrgyzstan are high. Data on clinical and economic impact of COPD in Kyrgyzstan are scarce. This study was part of the FRESH AIR research project that focused on prevention, diagnosis and treatment of chronic lung diseases in low-resource settings. Aim: We aimed to evaluate the clinical characteristics, treatment patterns and economic burden of COPD in Kyrgyzstan. Methods: A representative sample of patients with a spirometry-confirmed diagnosis of COPD was included. All patients were registered in one of the five major hospitals in Kyrgyzstan. Patients were surveyed on COPD risk factors, health-care utilization and patient reported outcomes (CCQ, MRC). Associations with high symptom burden (MRC score ≥4) and cost were assessed using logistic regression analyses. Results: A total of 306 patients were included with mean age 62.1 (SD: 11.2), 61.4% being male, mean BMI 26.9 (SD: 5.2) and mean monthly income $85.1 (SD: 75.4). Biomass was used for heating and cooking by 71.2% and 52.0%. Current and ex-smokers accounted 14.1% and 32%. Mean FEV1 was 46% (SD: 12.8), 71.9% had COPD GOLD III-IV and most frequent co-morbidities were hypertension (25.2%), diabetes (5.6%) and heart diseases (4.6%). Mean CCQ score was 2.0 (SD: 0.9) and MRC score 3.7 (SD: 0.9). Yearly mean number of hospital days due to COPD was 10.1 (SD: 3.9). Total annual per-patient costs of reimbursed health-care utilization ($107) and co-payments ($224, ie, 22% of patients' annual income) were $331. We found that only GOLD IV and hypertension were significantly associated with high symptom burden. Exacerbations and hypertension were significantly associated with high cost. Conclusion: The clinical and economic burden of COPD on patients and the government in Kyrgyzstan is considerable. Notably, almost half of interviewed patients were current or ex-smokers and biomass exposure was high.
Maintaining healthcare for noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is particularly important during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, diversion of resources to acute care, and physical distancing restrictions markedly affected management of NCDs. We aimed to assess the medication management practices in place for NCDs during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic across European countries. In December 2020, the European Network to Advance Best practices & technoLogy on medication adherencE (ENABLE) conducted a cross-sectional, web-based survey in 38 European and one non-European countries. Besides descriptive statistics of responses, nonparametric tests and generalized linear models were used to evaluate the impact on available NCD services of the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Fifty-three collaborators from 39 countries completed the survey. In 35 (90%) countries face-to-face primary-care, and out-patient consultations were reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. The mean ± SD number of available forms of teleconsultation services in the public healthcare system was 3 ± 1.3. Electronic prescriptions were available in 36 (92%) countries. Online ordering and home delivery of prescription medication (avoiding pharmacy visits) were available in 18 (46%) and 26 (67%) countries, respectively. In 20 (51%) countries our respondents were unaware of any national guidelines regarding maintaining medication availability for NCDs, nor advice for patients on how to ensure access to medication and adherence during the pandemic. Our results point to an urgent need for a paradigm shift in NCD-related healthcare services to assure the maintenance of chronic pharmacological treatments during COVID-19 outbreaks, as well as possible future disasters.
Background: This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of indacaterol/glycopyrronium (IND/GLY) versus salmeterol/fluticasone (SFC) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients with moderate to very severe airflow limitation and ≥1 exacerbation in the preceding year. Methods: A previously published and validated patient-level simulation model was adapted using clinical data from the FLAME trial and real-world cost data from the ARCTIC study. Costs (total monetary costs comprising drug, maintenance, exacerbation, and pneumonia costs) and health outcomes (life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)) were projected over various time horizons (1, 5, 10 years, and lifetime) from the Swedish payer's perspective and were discounted at 3% annually. Uncertainty in model input values was studied through one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Subgroup analyses were also performed. Results: IND/GLY was associated with lower costs and better outcomes compared with SFC over all the analysed time horizons. Use of IND/GLY resulted in additional 0.192 LYs and 0.134 QALYs with cost savings of €1211 compared with SFC over lifetime. The net monetary benefit (NMB) was estimated to be €8560 based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of €55,000/QALY. The NMB was higher in the following subgroups: severe (GOLD 3), high risk and more symptoms (GOLD D), females, and current smokers. Conclusion: IND/GLY is a cost-effective treatment compared with SFC in COPD patients with mMRC dyspnea grade ≥ 2, moderate to very severe airflow limitation, and ≥1 exacerbation in the preceding year.
Medication non-adherence is associated with almost 200,000 deaths annually and €80–125 billion in the European Union. Novel technological advances (smart pill bottles, digital inhalers and spacers, electronic pill blisters, e-injection pens, e-Health applications, big data) could help managing non-adherence. Healthcare professionals seem however inadequately informed about non-adherence, availability of technological solutions in daily practice is limited, and collaborative efforts to push forward their implementation are scarce. The European Network to Advance Best practices and technoLogy on medication adherencE (ENABLE, COST Action 19132) aims to 1) raise awareness of adherence enhancing solutions, 2) foster knowledge on medication adherence, 3) accelerate clinical application of novel technologies and 4) work collaboratively towards economically viable policy, and implementation of adherence enhancing technology across healthcare systems.
There is a substantial burden of chronic respiratory diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). LMICs have particular challenges in delivering cost-effective prevention, diagnosis, and management of COPD. Optimal care can be supported by effective implementation of guidelines. This American Thoracic Society workshop considered challenges to implementation of COPD guidelines in LMICs. We make 10 specific recommendations: 1) relevant organizations should provide LMIC-specific COPD management guidance; 2) patient and professional organizations must persuade policy-makers of the importance of lung function testing programs in LMICs; 3) healthcare education and training should emphasize the early-life origins of COPD; 4) urgent action is required by governments to reduce airborne exposures, including exposures to tobacco smoke and indoor and outdoor air pollution; 5) guidance for COPD in LMICs should explicitly link across Essential Medicine Lists and the World Health Organization package of essential noncommunicable disease interventions for primary health care in low-resource settings and should consider availability, affordability, sustainability, and cost-effective use of medicines; 6) the pharmaceutical industry should work to make effective COPD and tobacco-dependence medicines globally accessible and affordable; 7) implementation of locally adapted, cost-effective pulmonary rehabilitation programs should be an international priority; 8) the World Health Organization Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases should specify how improvements in respiratory health will be achieved; 9) research funders should increase the proportion of funding allocated to COPD in LMICs; and 10) the respiratory community should leverage the skills and enthusiasm of earlier-career clinicians and researchers to improve global respiratory health.
In: FRESH AIR Collaborators , Brakema , E A , Tabyshova , A , van der Kleij , R M J J , Sooronbaev , T , Lionis , C , Anastasaki , M , Pham Le An , T , Luan Than Nguyen , , Kirenga , B , Walusimbi , S , Postma , M J , Chavannes , N H & van Boven , J F M 2019 , ' The socioeconomic burden of chronic lung disease in low-resource settings across the globe - an observational FRESH AIR study ' , Respiratory Research , vol. 20 , no. 1 , 291 . https://doi.org/10.1186/s12931-019-1255-z ; ISSN:1465-9921
BACKGROUND: Low-resource settings are disproportionally burdened by chronic lung disease due to early childhood disadvantages and indoor/outdoor air pollution. However, data on the socioeconomic impact of respiratory diseases in these settings are largely lacking. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the chronic lung disease-related socioeconomic burden in diverse low-resource settings across the globe. To inform governmental and health policy, we focused on work productivity and activity impairment and its modifiable clinical and environmental risk factors. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional, observational FRESH AIR study in Uganda, Vietnam, Kyrgyzstan, and Greece. We assessed the chronic lung disease-related socioeconomic burden using validated questionnaires among spirometry-diagnosed COPD and/or asthma patients (total N = 1040). Predictors for a higher burden were studied using multivariable linear regression models including demographics (e.g. age, gender), health parameters (breathlessness, comorbidities), and risk factors for chronic lung disease (smoking, solid fuel use). We applied identical models per country, which we subsequently meta-analyzed. RESULTS: Employed patients reported a median [IQR] overall work impairment due to chronic lung disease of 30% [1.8-51.7] and decreased productivity (presenteeism) of 20.0% [0.0-40.0]. Remarkably, work time missed (absenteeism) was 0.0% [0.0-16.7]. The total population reported 40.0% [20.0-60.0] impairment in daily activities. Breathlessness severity (MRC-scale) (B = 8.92, 95%CI = 7.47-10.36), smoking (B = 5.97, 95%CI = 1.73-10.22), and solid fuel use (B = 3.94, 95%CI = 0.56-7.31) were potentially modifiable risk factors for impairment. CONCLUSIONS: In low-resource settings, chronic lung disease-related absenteeism is relatively low compared to the substantial presenteeism and activity impairment. Possibly, given the lack of social security systems, relatively few people take days off work at the expense of decreased productivity. Breathlessness (MRC-score), ...
In: Hurst , J R , Buist , A S , Gaga , M , Gianella , G E , Kirenga , B , Khoo , E M , Mendes , R G , Mohan , A , Mortimer , K , Rylance , S , Siddharthan , T , Singh , S J , van Boven , J F M , Williams , S , Zhang , J & Checkley , W 2021 , ' Challenges in the Implementation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Guidelines in Low- and Middle-Income Countries An Official American Thoracic Society Workshop Report ' , Annals of the American Thoracic Society , vol. 18 , no. 8 , pp. 1269-1277 . https://doi.org/10.1513/AnnalsATS.202103-284ST ; ISSN:2325-6621
There is a substantial burden of chronic respiratory diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). LMICs have particular challenges in delivering cost-effective prevention, diagnosis, and management of COPD. Optimal care can be supported by effective implementation of guidelines. This American Thoracic Society workshop considered challenges to implementation of COPD guidelines in LMICs. We make 10 specific recommendations: 1) relevant organizations should provide LMIC-specific COPD management guidance; 2) patient and professional organizations must persuade policy-makers of the importance of lung function testing programs in LMICs; 3) healthcare education and training should emphasize the early-life origins of COPD; 4) urgent action is required by governments to reduce airborne exposures, including exposures to tobacco smoke and indoor and outdoor air pollution; 5) guidance for COPD in LMICs should explicitly link across Essential Medicine Lists and the World Health Organization package of essential noncommunicable disease interventions for primary health care in low-resource settings and should consider availability, affordability, sustainability, and cost-effective use of medicines; 6) the pharmaceutical industry should work to make effective COPD and tobacco-dependence medicines globally accessible and affordable; 7) implementation of locally adapted, cost-effective pulmonary rehabilitation programs should be an international priority; 8) the World Health Organization Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases should specify how improvements in respiratory health will be achieved; 9) research funders should increase the proportion of funding allocated to COPD in LMICs; and 10) the respiratory community should leverage the skills and enthusiasm of earlier-career clinicians and researchers to improve global respiratory health.
The objective was to evaluate the effectiveness and acceptability of locally tailored implementation of improved cookstoves/heaters in low- and middle-income countries. This interventional implementation study among 649 adults and children living in rural communities in Uganda, Vietnam and Kyrgyzstan, was performed after situational analyses and awareness programmes. Outcomes included household air pollution (PM2.5 and CO), self-reported respiratory symptoms (with CCQ and MRC-breathlessness scale), chest infections, school absence and intervention acceptability. Measurements were conducted at baseline, 2 and 6-12 months after implementing improved cookstoves/heaters. Mean PM2.5 values decrease by 31% (to 95.1 µg/m3) in Uganda (95%CI 71.5-126.6), by 32% (to 31.1 µg/m3) in Vietnam (95%CI 24.5-39.5) and by 65% (to 32.4 µg/m3) in Kyrgyzstan (95%CI 25.7-40.8), but all remain above the WHO guidelines. CO-levels remain below the WHO guidelines. After intervention, symptoms and infections diminish significantly in Uganda and Kyrgyzstan, and to a smaller extent in Vietnam. Quantitative assessment indicates high acceptance of the new cookstoves/heaters. In conclusion, locally tailored implementation of improved cookstoves/heaters is acceptable and has considerable effects on respiratory symptoms and indoor pollution, yet mean PM2.5 levels remain above WHO recommendations. ; European Union's Horizon 2020 programme under grant agreement no. 680997, TRIAL ID NTR5759, http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctsearch.asp?Term=23332. The devices, measuring the personal HAP, were funded by Netherlands Enterprise Agency ...
In: Fullman , N , Barber , R M , Abajobir , A A , Abate , K H , Abbafati , C , Abbas , K M , Abd-Allah , F , Abdulle , A M , Abera , S F , Aboyans , V , Abu-Raddad , L J , Abu-Rmeileh , N M E , Adedeji , I A , Adetokunboh , O , Afshin , A , Agrawal , A , Agrawal , S , Kiadaliri , A A , Ahmadieh , H , Ahmed , M B , Aichour , A N , Aichour , I , Aichour , M T E , Aiyar , S , Akinyemi , R O , Akseer , N , Al-Aly , Z , Alam , K , Alam , N , Alasfoor , D , Alene , K A , Alizadeh-Navaei , R , Alkerwi , A , Alla , F , Allebeck , P , Allen , C , Al-Raddadi , R , Alsharif , U , Altirkawi , K A , Alvis-Guzman , N , Amare , A T , Amini , E , Ammar , W , Antonio , C A T , Ansari , H , Anwari , P , Arora , M , Berhe , D F , Hoek , H W , van Boven , J F M & GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators 2017 , ' Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries : An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 ' , The Lancet , vol. 390 , no. 10100 , pp. 1423-1459 . https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X ; ISSN:0140-6736
Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable ...
BACKGROUND: Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. METHODS: We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. FINDINGS: Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89-4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61-2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18-5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10-4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8-8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4-8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1-10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3-0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0-16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6-11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8-23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68-2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6-0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9-136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7-138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments' increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. INTERPRETATION: Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. ; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation ; Sí
Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97.1 (95% UI 95.8-98.1) in Iceland, followed by 96.6 (94.9-97.9) in Norway and 96.1 (94.5-97.3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18.6 (13.1-24.4) in the Central African Republic, 19.0 (14.3-23.7) in Somalia, and 23.4 (20.2-26.8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91.5 (89.1-936) in Beijing to 48.0 (43.4-53.2) in Tibet (a 43.5-point difference), while India saw a 30.8-point disparity, from 64.8 (59.6-68.8) in Goa to 34.0 (30.3-38.1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4.8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20.9-point to 17.0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17.2-point to 20.4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view and subsequent provision of quality health care for all populations. ; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Barbora de Courten is supported by a National Heart Foundation Future Leader Fellowship (100864). Ai Koyanagi's work is supported by the Miguel Servet contract financed by the CP13/00150 and PI15/00862 projects, integrated into the National R + D + I and funded by the ISCIII —General Branch Evaluation and Promotion of Health Research—and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF-FEDER). Alberto Ortiz was supported by Spanish Government (Instituto de Salud Carlos III RETIC REDINREN RD16/0019 FEDER funds). Ashish Awasthi acknowledges funding support from Department of Science and Technology, Government of India through INSPIRE Faculty scheme Boris Bikbov has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 703226. Boris Bikbov acknowledges that work related to this paper has been done on the behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group. Panniyammakal Jeemon acknowledges support from the clinical and public health intermediate fellowship from the Wellcome Trust and Department of Biotechnology, India Alliance (2015–20). Job F M van Boven was supported by the Department of Clinical Pharmacy & Pharmacology of the University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Netherlands. Olanrewaju Oladimeji is an African Research Fellow hosted by Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), South Africa and he also has honorary affiliations with Walter Sisulu University (WSU), Eastern Cape, South Africa and School of Public Health, University of Namibia (UNAM), Namibia. He is indeed grateful for support from HSRC, WSU and UNAM. EUI is supported in part by the South African National Research Foundation (NRF UID: 86003). Ulrich Mueller acknowledges funding by the German National Cohort Study grant No 01ER1511/D, Gabrielle B Britton is supported by Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación and Sistema Nacional de Investigación de Panamá. Giuseppe Remuzzi acknowledges that the work related to this paper has been done on behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group. Behzad Heibati would like to acknowledge Air pollution Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences (IUMS), Tehran, Iran. Syed Aljunid acknowledges the National University of Malaysia for providing the approval to participate in this GBD Project. Azeem Majeed and Imperial College London are grateful for support from the Northwest London National Insititute of Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research & Care. Tambe Ayuk acknowledges the Institute of Medical Research and Medicinal Plant Studies for office space provided. José das Neves was supported in his contribution to this work by a Fellowship from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal (SFRH/BPD/92934/2013). João Fernandes gratefully acknowledges funding from FCT–Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (grant number UID/Multi/50016/2013). Jan-Walter De Neve was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. Kebede Deribe is funded by a Wellcome Trust Intermediate Fellowship in Public Health and Tropical Medicine (201900). Kazem Rahimi was supported by grants from the Oxford Martin School, the NIHR Oxford BRC and the RCUK Global Challenges Research Fund. Laith J Abu-Raddad acknowledges the support of Qatar National Research Fund (NPRP 9-040-3-008) who provided the main funding for generating the data provided to the GBD-IHME effort. Liesl Zuhlke is funded by the national research foundation of South Africa and the Medical Research Council of South Africa. Monica Cortinovis acknowledges that work related to this paper has been done on the behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group. Chuanhua Yu acknowleges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 81773552 and grant number 81273179) Norberto Perico acknowledges that work related to this paper has been done on behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group. Charles Shey Wiysonge's work is supported by the South African Medical Research Council and the National Research Foundation of South Africa (grant numbers 106035 and 108571). John J McGrath is supported by grant APP1056929 from the John Cade Fellowship from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Danish National Research Foundation (Niels Bohr Professorship). Quique Bassat is an ICREA (Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies) research professor at ISGlobal. Richard G White is funded by the UK MRC and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement that is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union (MR/P002404/1), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium: OPP1084276/OPP1135288, CORTIS: OPP1137034/OPP1151915, Vaccines: OPP1160830), and UNITAID (4214-LSHTM-Sept15; PO 8477-0-600). Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos was supported in part by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI17/00719 from ISCIII-FEDER. Mihajlo Jakovljevic acknowleges contribution from the Serbian Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (grant OI 175 014). Shariful Islam is funded by a Senior Fellowship from Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, Deakin University and received career transition grants from High Blood Pressure Research Council of Australia. Sonia Saxena is funded by various grants from the NIHR. Stefanos Tyrovolas was supported by the Foundation for Education and European Culture, the Sara Borrell postdoctoral program (reference number CD15/00019 from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII–Spain) and the Fondos Europeo de Desarrollo Regional. Stefanos was awarded with a 6 months visiting fellowship funding at IHME from M-AES (reference no. MV16/00035 from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III). S Vittal Katikreddi was funded by a NHS Research Scotland Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the MRC (MC_UU_12017/13 & MC_ UU_12017/15) and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU13 & SPHSU15). Traolach S Brugha has received funding from NHS Digital UK to collect data used in this study. The work of Hamid Badali was financially supported by Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran. The work of Stefan Lorkowski is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (nutriCARD, Grant agreement number 01EA1411A). Mariam Molokhia's research was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. We also thank the countless individuals who have contributed to GBD 2016 in various capacities. ; Peer reviewed