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The family policy landscape changed dramatically across and within European societies during the 20th century. At the same time, family life courses have become more complex, unstable and unpredictable. However, there are no empirical studies that attempt to link changes in family policies with increasing family life course complexity. In this study, I address two research questions: (1) What is the association between family policies and family life course complexity? and (2) Do these associations vary by the life course stage at which individuals experience family policies? Retrospective data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe are used to construct the family life courses of individuals from the age of 15 to 50, born between 1924 and 1956, from 15 European countries. I use metrics developed in sequence analysis that incorporate life course transitions and unpredictability to measure the complexity of family formation. Annual policy information from 1924 to 2008 for each country are combined to generate cohort indices for three policy dimensions: familization, individualization and liberalization. These cohort metrics express the policy experiences of individuals over the course of their lives, rather than at a specific historical time point. I find that while familization is associated with less complex life courses, individualization is related to higher levels of complexity. Furthermore, my results indicate that the levels individualization experienced early and later in the life course are linked most strongly with complexity. I conclude that family policy reforms may partially account for increasing life course instability and unpredictability across Europe.

Diese Dissertation beschäftigt sich mit der Komplexität von Familienverläufen und beinhaltet vier empirische Studien. Die erste Studie untersucht, ob sich Familienverläufe in Geburtskohorten und Ländern unterscheiden, und ob sie mehr über die Zeit oder die Länder hinweg variieren. Anhand der SHARELIFE Daten wird ein Verfahren entwickelt, indem Komplexitätsmaße aus der Sequenzanalyse mit der Mehrebenenmodellierung zusammengeführt werden. Die zweite Studie untersucht, ebenfalls auf Basis der SHARELIFE Daten, folgende Fragen: Wie hängen Familienpolitik und -komplexität zusammen, und wird dieser Zusammenhang durch den Zeitpunkt des Eintreffens der jeweiligen Familienpolitik im Lebensverlauf moderiert? Um den Zusammenhang zwischen Familisierungs-, Defamilisierungs-, und Liberalisierungsindezes und Komplexität zu schätzen, werden weitere Datenquellen herangezogen. Die Zusammenhänge zwischen den Indizes und Komplexität werden mit Länder- und Kohorten Fixed-Effects geschätzt. Das dritte Kapitel untersucht auf Basis der NLSY79 und NLSY97 Daten den Zusammenhang zwischen elterlichen Ressourcen und Komplexität im jungen Erwachsenenalter, und ob sich dieser über Kohorten hinweg verändert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Komplexität eher bei jungen Erwachsenen aus benachteiligten Familien angestiegen ist. Das vierte Kapitel verwendet Lebensverlaufs- und genetische Daten aus den USA (HRS) und ermittelt die Erblichkeit von Komplexität mittels GCTA. Es wird geschlussfolgert, dass die Zunahme von Komplexität, auch in den USA, relativ gering ist und Länderunterschiede viel bedeutsamer sind. Nicht kulturelle Veränderungen, sondern zunehmende ökonomische Unsicherheit und sozialpolitische Institutionen scheinen die wichtigsten Faktoren für kohorten- und länderspezifische Komplexitätsunterschiede zu sein. Abschließend lässt sich festhalten, dass genetische Faktoren die Komplexität ebenfalls beeinflussen und ihre Berücksichtigung die Vorhersagekraft von statistischen Modellen erhöhen kann. ; This dissertation on family life course complexity revolves around four empirical studies. The first chapter investigates how family life courses vary across birth cohorts, how family life courses vary across countries, and whether family life courses vary more across birth cohorts or across countries. This study uses SHARELIFE and combines sequence complexity metrics with cross-classified multilevel modeling to quantify the proportion of variance attributable to cohort and country differences. The second chapter also uses SHARELIFE to address two research questions: what is the association between family policies and complexity and does the timing of family policies within the life course moderate this association? Data sources are combined to estimate the relationships between three family policy dimensions - familization, defamilization, and liberalization - and complexity. The associations between my policy indexes and complexity are estimated using country and time fixed effects regression models. The third chapter asks what is the association between parental resources and the early family life course complexity and has the association between parental resources and complexity changed across birth cohorts. NLSY79 and NLSY97 data show that complexity is higher among disadvantaged young adults. The fourth chapter applies life history and genetic data from the HRS to a GCTA to study the heritability of complexity. It is concluded that the increase in complexity, even in the United States, is relatively small and cross-national variation seems to be much more important. Rather than ideational change, increasing economic uncertainty and differences in national institutional arrangements are the most important factors for cross-national and cross-cohort differences in complexity. Finally, genetic factors matter for the complexity of individuals' family life courses and could likely contribute to the predictive power of future statistical models.

Family life courses are thought to have become more complex in Europe. This study uses SHARELIFE data from 14 European countries to analyze the family life courses of individuals born in 1924-1956 from ages 15 to 50. A new methodological approach, combining complexity metrics developed in sequence analysis with cross-classified multilevel modeling, is used to simultaneously quantify the proportions of variance attributable to birth cohort and country differences. This approach allows the direct comparison of changing levels of family trajectory differentiation across birth cohorts with cross-national variation, which provides a benchmark against which temporal change may be evaluated. The results demonstrate that family trajectories have indeed become more differentiated but that change over time is minor compared with substantial cross-national variation. Further, cross-national differences in family trajectory differentiation correspond with differences in dominant family life course patterns. With regard to debates surrounding the second demographic transition thesis and the comparative life course literature, the results indicate that the degree of change over time tends to be overstated relative to large cross-national differences. Supplementary material: s.: 13524_2017_628_MOESM1_ESM.pdf.

AbstractFamily formation in China has undergone dramatic changes. Despite increasing academic attention, few studies have taken a holistic approach to study cohort change in Chinese family life courses. In this study, we assess how family life course patterns and diversity changed across 1930–1978 birth cohorts. Moreover, we evaluate to what extent changing norms, economic constraints, and institutional reforms drove cohort differences. Data from the China Family Panel Studies and sequence analysis are applied to identify family life course patterns and to calculate sequence diversity. While we found a shift in family life course patterns across 1930–1978 birth cohorts, there is no evidence that Chinese family lives have become more diverse. On the contrary, our results demonstrate that family life courses have become relatively standardized around relatively early marriage and a single child. We find that factors associated with economic constraints and educational attainment—not ideational change or institutional reforms—account for a considerable portion of cross‐cohort variation in the diversity of family life courses. Rather than a second demographic transition, the family demographic behavior of 1930–1978 Chinese birth cohorts is marked by continuity despite change.

Objective: The association between a first, second, and third childbirth and in-work poverty in the short- and medium-term were assessed across age groups in the US and Germany. Background: Previous research on in-work poverty has concentrated on structural and ascriptive characteristics, while family processes - especially childbirths - received less attention. This gap was filled by adopting a processual life course approach. Method: Longitudinal data from the US and Germany were applied to between-within random effects models to estimate within-individual change in the probability of in-work poverty up to six years following a first, second, and third childbirth across age groups. Results: First, second, and third birth were associated with an immediate increase in the probability of in-work poverty (up to 10 and 5 percentage points in the US and in Germany, respectively). Among US adults aged 30 and younger probabilities increased in the medium term (from 9 to 15 percentage points for a first, 6 to 15 for a second, and 9 to 18 for a third birth), but remained unchanged for older adults in the US and all adults in Germany. Conclusion: There was no recovery in risk of in-work poverty in the medium-term following childbirth in the US and Germany. Increasing the labor market participation of adult household members via more and low-cost childcare options remains crucial. However, higher levels of income support and child benefits may be needed to avoid poverty.

Abstract

[Background:] In-work poverty, a phenomenon that engenders social exclusion, is exceptionally high in the United States. The literature on in-work poverty focuses on occupational polarization, human capital, demographic characteristics, and welfare generosity. However, we have no knowledge on the effects of family demographic processes on in-work poverty across individuals' life courses. [Objective:] We estimate the risk of in-work poverty in the United States over the life course as a function of family demographic processes, namely leaving the parental home, union formation and dissolution, and the transition to parenthood. [Methods:] We use data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) and fixed effects regression models with interactions between age and each family demographic process to estimate age-specific associations between these processes and the probability of in-work poverty. [Results:] In-work poverty is a common phenomenon across the life courses of our study cohort: 20% of individuals are at risk of in-work poverty at every age. However, the risk generally decreases for men and increases for women across the life course. Leaving the parental home, entering parenthood, and separation increase, while marriage decreases the risk of in-work poverty. While the associations between marital statuses and in-work poverty are stable over the life course, the associations between parental home leaving and fertility with in-work poverty vary by age. [Contribution:] Our findings demonstrate the importance of family demographic processes over and above traditional stratification factors for the risk of in-work poverty. Associations between family demographic processes and in-work poverty estimated for all age groups may be grossly underestimated.

Whether employment life courses have become more unstable and complex across the twentieth century has been a prominent topic in academic and public debate. Yet, empirical evidence on longer-term employment trajectories and how they changed across cohorts beyond single-country analyses is sparse. In this paper, we propose a new methodological approach that includes measures developed in sequence analysis to summarize complexity in employment trajectories in a cross-classified multilevel model by cohort and country. This allows us to quantify and describe change in the complexity of employment trajectories across cohorts relative to variation across fourteen European countries. We use SHARELIFE data to analyze employment trajectories from age 15 to 45 for men and women born between 1918 and 1963. For these birth cohorts, findings show that change across cohorts is negligibly small, compared with a sizeable variation of complexity in employment trajectories across countries. Further, based on theoretical assumptions derived from the varieties of capitalism literature, we demonstrate that the cross-national variation in employment complexity can, in part, be accounted for by employment protection legislation and unemployment protection measured as wage replacement rates. We conclude that in accordance with other studies, our findings contradict the commonly held belief that employment trajectories have become much more unstable across the second half of the twentieth century. More generally, the proposed methodological approach is also promising to analyze complexity in life course trajectories in other areas of application.

Whether employment life courses have become more unstable and complex across the twentieth century has been a prominent topic in academic and public debate. Yet, empirical evidence on longer-term employment trajectories and how they changed across cohorts beyond single-country analyses is sparse. In this paper, we propose a new methodological approach that includes measures developed in sequence analysis to summarize complexity in employment trajectories in a cross-classified multilevel model by cohort and country. This allows us to quantify and describe change in the complexity of employment trajectories across cohorts relative to variation across fourteen European countries. We use SHARELIFE data to analyze employment trajectories from age 15 to 45 for men and women born between 1918 and 1963. For these birth cohorts, findings show that change across cohorts is negligibly small, compared with a sizeable variation of complexity in employment trajectories across countries. Further, based on theoretical assumptions derived from the varieties of capitalism literature, we demonstrate that the cross-national variation in employment complexity can, in part, be accounted for by employment protection legislation and unemployment protection measured as wage replacement rates. We conclude that in accordance with other studies, our findings contradict the commonly held belief that employment trajectories have become much more unstable across the second half of the twentieth century. More generally, the proposed methodological approach is also promising to analyze complexity in life course trajectories in other areas of application.

The persistency of in-work poverty during the last de cades challenges the idea that employment is sufficient to escape poverty. Research has focused on the risk factors associated with in-work poverty, but scholars know little about individuals' experiences after exiting it. The Sequence Analysis Multistate Model procedure is applied to three high-quality longitudinal data sources (NLSY79, NLSY97, and PSID) to establish a typo logy of employment pathways out of in-work poverty and estimate how gender and race are associated with each pathway. We identify five distinct pathways characterized by varying degrees of labor market attachment, economic vulnerability, and volatility. White men are most likely exit in-work poverty into stable employment outside of poverty, while Black men and women likely remain vulnerable and at-risk of social exclusion as well as recurrent spells of in-work poverty. Gender and race differences persist even after controlling for labor market related characteristics and family demographic behavior.

This archive includes all data compiled in the course of a systematic review on the association between family demographic processes and in-work poverty that represents the empirical material used in the paper Polizzi, Struffolino, Van Winkle. 2020. "Family Demographic Processes and In-Work Poverty: A Systematic Review." SocArXiv: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/zncaq

The systematic review aims at locating empirical results on these associations within a common grid to summarize the findings with respect to five family demographic processes: parental home leaving, cohabitation, parenthood and subsequent births, union formation, and union dissolution. We concentrate on empirical studies on in-work poverty in OECD and EU-28 countries without any restriction on the year of publication.

In the first part of the systematic review, we provide a quantitative review of results from a comparative pool of cross-sectional analyses. In the second part of the systematic review, we perform a narrative review of the literature that pays special attention to recent research implementing a longitudinal design with household panel data and to alternative operationalizations of pivotal variables.

The methods report provides detailed information on all files included in the archive.

This archive includes all data compiled in the course of a systematic review on the association between family demographic processes and in-work poverty that represents the empirical material used in the following paper: Polizzi, Antonino; Struffolino, Emanuela; van Winkle, Zachary (2022): Family demographic processes and in-work poverty: A systematic review. In: Advances in Life Course Research 52, Article 100462. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2022.100462
This article reviews ever published quantitative evidence on in-work poverty and family demographic processes in OECD and EU-28 countries.
In this systematic review, we first provide a quantitative review of results from analyses that estimated the association between in-work poverty and parental home leaving, union formation, marriage, parenthood, and dissolution of non-marital and marital unions. This allows us to formulate tentative conclusions about whether and in which direction family demographic processes are associated with in-work poverty. Second, we discuss in detail conceptual and methodological advances in in-work poverty research, that is analyses that deviated from the more conventional approaches adopted in the analyses selected for the quantitative review or that accounted for the interaction between family demographic processes and individual or context characteristics.
The methods report provides detailed information on all files included in the archive.