Suchergebnisse

What could happen to the Netherlands if, in 2030, the sea level starts to rise and eventually, after 100 years, a sea level of 5 m above current level would be reached? This question is addressed by studying literature, by interviewing experts in widely differing fields, and by holding an expert workshop on this question. Although most experts believe that geomorphology and current engineering skills would enable the country to largely maintain its territorial integrity, there are reasons to assume that this is not likely to happen. Social processes that precede important political decisions - such as the growth of the belief in the reality of sea level rise and the framing of such decisions in a proper political context (policy window) - evolve slowly. A flood disaster would speed up the decision-making process. The shared opinion of the experts surveyed is that eventually part of the Netherlands would be abandoned. © 2008 The Author(s).

Climate change may lead to an increased risk of river floods in the Netherlands. However, the impacts of changes in water management are even larger, whether enhancing or reducing flood risks. Therefore, the abilities of water management authorities to learn that climate and river flows are changing, and to recognise and act upon the implications are of crucial importance. At the same time, water management authorities respond to other trends, such as the democratisation of decision making, which alter their ability to react to climate change. This complex of interactions is illustrated with changes in river flood risk management for the Rhine and the Meuse in the Netherlands over the last 50 years. A scenario study is used to seek insight into the question whether current water management institutions and their likely successors are capable of dealing with plausible future flood risks. Structural solutions to future flood risks are feasible, but require considerable political will and institutional reform.

Climate change may well lead to an increased risk of river floods in the Netherlands. However, the impacts of changes in water management on river floods are larger, either enhancing or reducing flood risks. Therefore, the abilities of water-management authorities to learn that climate and river flows are changing, and to recognize and act upon the implications, are of crucial importance. At the same time, water-management authorities respond to other trends, such as the democratization of decision making, which alter their ability to react to climate change. These complex interactions are illustrated with changes in river flood risk management for the Rhine and the Meuse in the Netherlands over the last 50 years. A scenario study is used to seek insight into the question of whether current water-management institutions and their likely successors are capable of dealing with plausible future flood risks. The scenarios show that new and major infrastructure is needed to keep flood risks at their current level. Such a structural solution to future flood risks is feasible, but requires considerable political will and institutional reform, both for planning and implementation. It is unlikely that reform will be fast enough or the will strong enough.