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People seem to have pure time preferences about trade-offs concerning their own pleasures and pains, and such preferences contribute to estimates of people's individual time discount rate. Do pure time preferences also matter to interpersonal welfare trade-offs, including those concerning the welfare of future generations? Most importantly, should the intergenerational time discount rate include a pure time preference? Descriptivists claim that the intergenerational discount rate should reflect actual people's revealed preferences, and thus it should include a pure time preference. Prescriptivists claim that the intergenerational discount rate should be based on moral analysis, and thus they (often) claim that the rate of pure time preference should be zero. I argue that regardless of which view is correct, a focus on pure time preference is misplaced. First, the most plausible interpretation of descriptive preferences for intergenerational trade-offs is that people are socially biased and not time biased. Second, social bias is superior to time bias as a prescriptive reason to discount the welfare of future people. Third, recent advances in measuring social bias as a social discount rate make social bias a viable replacement for time bias in economic analyses of intergenerational welfare trade-offs.

In the analysis of causal effects in non-experimental studies, conditioning on observable covariates is one way to try to reduce unobserved confounder bias. However, a developing literature has shown that conditioning on certain covariates may increase bias, and the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon have not been fully explored. We add to the literature on bias-increasing covariates by first introducing a way to decompose omitted variable bias into three constituent parts: bias due to an unobserved confounder, bias due toexcludingobserved covariates, and bias due to amplification. This leads to two important findings. Although instruments have been the primary focus of the bias amplification literature to date, we identify the fact that the popular approach of adding group fixed effects can lead to bias amplification as well. This is an important finding because many practitioners think that fixed effects are a convenient way to account for any and all group-level confounding and are at worst harmless. The second finding introduces the concept of biasunmaskingand shows how it can be even more insidious than bias amplification in some cases. After introducing these new results analytically, we use constructed observational placebo studies to illustrate bias amplification and bias unmasking with real data. Finally, we propose a way to add bias decomposition information to graphical displays for sensitivity analysis to help practitioners think through the potential for bias amplification and bias unmasking in actual applications.

An evaluation of the relevance of Ur bias & Ru bias to the postrevolutionary Chinese case. Statistical data are presented on the nature & extent of differentiation in Ru-Ur living standards, the political basis of relevant economic policies is examined, & the relationship between these policies is investigated relative to changes in labor productivity in each sector & to intersectoral savings transfers. Both Ur bias & Ru bias hypotheses illuminate certain dimensions of Chinese development strategy. But the realities of Ru-Ur relations have been complex, & analysis must be supplemented by a focus on the division between state & society, & the question of state bias. 10 Tables, 73 References. HA.

Selective reading of political online information was examined based on cognitive dissonance, social identity, and news values frameworks. Online reports were displayed to 156 Americans while selective exposure was tracked. The news articles that participants chose from were either conservative or liberal and also either positive or negative regarding American political policies. In addition, information processing styles (cognitive reflection and need-for-cognition) were measured. Results revealed confirmation and negativity biases, per cognitive dissonance and news values, but did not corroborate the hypothesis derived from social identity theory. Greater cognitive reflection, greater need-for-cognition, and worse affective state fostered the confirmation bias; stronger social comparison tendency reduced the negativity bias.

AbstractThe handling of potential stakeholder bias distinguishes evaluation theorists from one another and from practitioners.

We demonstrate that female incumbents are of higher average candidate quality than male incumbents. This quality difference is the result of barriers to entry faced by potential female candidates, although the observed effects of this quality differential on vote share are partially masked by the fact that female incumbents are also more likely to be opposed or to be opposed by high-quality challengers. Using data from House elections for 1984-1992, we estimate that the gender-based differential in candidate quality yields an extra six percentage points of vote share for female incumbents. 7 Tables, 1 Appendix, 32 References. Adapted from the source document.

In Why Poor People Stay Poor: Urban Bias in World Development (London: Temple Smith, 1977), Michael Lipton argues that Ur bias is the moving force behind needlessly slow & inequitable growth in contemporary developing countries. This claim is defended against three main criticisms: that the methods chosen to test it are not appropriate; that the evidence tendered is not relevant or sufficient; & that the Ru-Ur polarity is not clear-cut or does not represent the prime conflict within contemporary developing countries. 116 References. HA.

"In this note we consider the preferences of a profit maximizing firm for international ownership in a world in which firms compete in an international Cournot oligopoly, and in which countries use strategic trade policy. We find that firms prefer national ownership and show that full indigenisation occurs in the equilibrium." (author's abstract)