Suchergebnisse

Forty-eight subjects were asked to respond to occasional increments in a pulse train with ratings of certainty of signal occurrence for 20 min. Half (F) subjects were given feedback; half (NF) were not. In a second session all responded during an 80 min period with a simple response. In another, half responded with certainty ratings; half responded with a simple response. Finally, those who had responded with ratings responded simply and those who had employed a simple response made ratings. It was found that F subjects made fewer false responses and tended to make fewer detections in earlier sessions. In later sessions false responses were reduced for all. The usual progressive false response and detection reductions and latency increases were noted; when subjects employed ratings reductions in certainty were noted within sessions. It was concluded that the data support the detection theory model for vigilance for this type of task.

One of the att's affecting US foreign policy is empiricism, which leads to ad hoc solutions instead of the development of a long-range program. Pol'al problems are tackled by admin've means. This dooms America to a reactive policy that has to improvise counters to every Soviet move while the Russians' emphasis on theory gives them the certainty of action. Another problem of US foreign policy is their reluctance to think in terms of power, as internat relations cannot be conducted without awareness of power relationships. A major problem for America is the changed nature of negotiations in a revolutionary pol'al order. Diplomacy is no longer a legal process. Insufficient attention is being given to the symbolic aspect of foreign policy. As a result internat debate is being carried on in the categories & at the pace established by the Russians. US coalition policy also needs a new approach. But the adequcy of American att's for dealing with the crisis is mainly a problem of leadership. America faces the challenge of demonstrating that democracy is able to act with moral certainty & to run risks without a guarantee of success. IPSA.

Modern writers have usually dated die composition of Mun's work about the period 1630-1635. My article (pages 121-33 above) establishes diat much of die argument was the outcome of die trade crisis of 1620-1624, and die quotations and references there given prove that some of die most important sections of die work were first written, diough probably not as part of a book, during diat period. In addition, there are four pieces of internal evidence which help to date die complete work with some certainty.

A number of recent scholarly analytical studies which place pop issues in Asia in their proper perspective are discussed. 55% of today's world pop lives in Asia. By 1980 it is expected to increase by 75%. This assumes continued high birthrates with mortality decreasing. Japan appears to have successfully introduced birth control, but this experience should not be generalized. Her case has special features. On the contrary her most important moral remains the virtual certainty of rapid growth rates in Asia for some decades. Birth control is clearly becoming an internat issue. Yet it can clearly not alone cure man's tendency to outstrip available resources. A comprehensive balanced & dynamic development is needed in which pop policy takes its rightful place. IPSA.

SummaryOrder—Disorder—Statistics1. Disorder in statistics, which is orderly in virtue of its function, will always occur, since it is the work of men.2. What statistics are useful depends on the Social‐historical period in which we live. A source of disorder may be the continuance of statistical investigations that belong to former periods.In our century the available means for socio‐economic statistics should be used in the first place for statistics which are serviceable for systematic planning.3. Nowadays the importance of statistics for this planning is overestimated. It is not given to man to predict the future with certainty. Also statistics depend on experience, on what is happening empirically. Taking decisions with regard to systematic planning and bearing the risks involved in beyond the scope of the statistician.