Cuban-Americans are changing their attitudesabout many of the key components of current US/Cuba policy. The paper explores some of the socialforces creating the patterns associated with thechanging attitudes. Based on the data from the2014 Cuba Poll, a descriptive analysis ofrelationships among key demographic variablesuncovers compelling patterns associated with theideological shift occurring in the population.Specifically, the patterns associated with ideologyshifts and time of arrival of the migrant aswell as his/her age and political party preferenceare explored. The paper makes clear that the newarrivals to Miami, as well as the younger Cubans,are significantly more interested in normalizingrelations with the home country. Unfortunately, alarge majority of the new arrivals (migrating since1995), are not citizens and therefore not able toparticipate in the electoral processes that shapeU.S. policy towards the island.Los cubano-americanos están cambiando susactitudes acerca de muchos de los componentesclave de la política actual de Estados Unidos haciaCuba. El artículo explora algunas de las fuerzas socialesque crean los patrones asociados a esas actitudescambiantes. En base a los datos del 2014Cuba Poll, un análisis descriptivo de las relacionesentre las variables demográficas clave, el texto descubrepatrones de peso asociados con el cambioideológico que ocurre en la población. En concreto,patrones asociados con los cambios y el tiempode llegada de los migrantes, así como su edady preferencia de partido político o de ideología.El documento deja claro que las personas reciénllegadas a Miami, así como los jóvenes cubanos,están significativamente más interesados en lanormalización de las relaciones con su país de origen.Por desgracia, la gran mayoría de los reciénllegados (desde 1995), no son ciudadanos estadounidensesy, por tanto, no pueden participar enlos procesos electorales que dan forma a la políticade Estados Unidos hacia la isla.
During his campaign president Obama focalized his message pointing skillful the change as the center of his speech. At the start the message consisted in repeating ¡change, we can believe in it! , and then "change we need" for, finally, like a dart, employing only one word: change. From a theoretical and logical point of view is not easy to assimilate a priori that fact where the most powerful nation in the whole world could be vulnerable because the idea of change, on the contrary, it is supposed that, after all, the USA people means a model to follow as a paradigm of "Developed Society" and therefore a path to pursue, confirming and reinforcing their institutions, the rules, the raison of life, the american dream. Many people still believe in the highest quality of life in America among the entire world. But the electoral experience showed the things in another way demonstrating that the american people is dissatisfied and that the political sense of smell of the candidate Obama target straight in the bull removing the heart and the consciences of the nation. The main purpose in this article is to analyze the causes and circumstances around this phenomenon from a point of view psychological, social and politic. ; El presidente de los Estados Unidos Barack Obama focalizó su campaña electoral con un simple, claro y certero mensaje: CAMBIO. Al comienzo la fórmula consistió en repetir ¡Change, we can believe in it! , luego abrevió el disparo con la frase que figura en el título del presente artículo y en las postrimerías de la contienda solamente repetía como un dardo una única palabra "¡Change! ", ¡Cambio! Desde un punto de vista objetivo y lógico, es decir teórico, no se podría haber admitido a priori que la nación que se reputa la más poderosa y rica del planeta pudiese ser vulnerable a la idea del cambio porque se presume que después de todo los Estados Unidos habrían sido una especie de modelo y paradigma de lo que se llama la "Sociedad Desarrollada" y en consecuencia el sentido común dictaría más bien todo lo contrario, como ser reafirmar las instituciones y confirmar las reglas de juego y el sentido de la vida, dado que el sueño americano tendría que tener el significado de la máxima calidad de vida, pero evidentemente la experiencia electoral demostró que el pueblo se encuentra insatisfecho y que el olfato político del candidato Obama acertó en el blanco removiendo el corazón y las conciencias del pueblo americano. En el presente artículo el propósito principal consiste en analizar las causas y circunstancias de este fenómeno psicológico, social y político.
The population of environmentally displaced people has increased recently, thus this article aims to address the challenges climate change may impose on Nation-States concerning human rights in relation to forced migration. The relationship between climate change and forced migration will be studied in order to present the problems arising from the allocation of international responsibility among States and the international protection (or the lack thereof) of "Climate Refugees" and stateless persons caused by the disappearance of Nation- States under climate change; solutions will be proposed under the existing International Human Rights Law.
In what could turn out to be his boldest decision of this election cycle, this past weekend presidential candidate Mitt Romney announced he was picking Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his vice-president, thus clearing many doubts the Republican base had about Romney. Paul Ryan is the author of an ultra-conservative budget plan that will drastically reduce the size of government programs. A Roman Catholic, he is a social conservative and strongly anti-abortion. This should be more than enough reassurance for Tea Partiers and the Evangelical right, and should assuage the anxiety about having to vote for a Mormon. The announcement was made early Saturday morning, at a rally on the Norfolk, Va., scenic waterfront, with the battleship Wisconsin framing the stage. They were received by a large cheering, mostly middle-aged and white crowd, and the symbolism was quite patent: Virginia, a swing state, is also the home of the U.S Atlantic fleet and the NATO Supreme Allied Command; the Ryan fiscal plan is quite lenient on military spending. This is clearly the turning point of his campaign: unable to c lose the gap that separates him from Mr. Obama (by 6 % points, according to polls right before the announcement), Mr. Romney made a decision that will excite the base and show Republicans that he is indeed committed to aggressively dealing with the deficit problem through drastic tax reform and cuts in domestic programs. With this announcement, he has defined himself as a bold reformer and made it clear to the electorate that entitlement reform will be the centerpiece of his administration. In its own way, it is also a singularly progressive ticket: this will be the first major party ticket in US history with no Protestant candidate. Wisconsin Congressman Ryan became well-known during the difficult Congress debt and deficit reduction debates when, as head of the House Budget Committee, he presented a very specific proposal to control federal spending, privatize Medicare and reform the tax system. While there is bipartisan consensus that deficit reduction is a must, Democrats propose to do it over a longer term, especially since cutting government spending is unthinkable during a recession, and to raise taxes on the wealthy as soon as the Bush tax cuts have expired. Republicans, on the other hand, want to cut programs for the needy as well as taxes for the upper bracket, since the wealthy are also the job creators, according to their view. As Paul Gigot said in an earlier Wall Street Journal editorial, he best "exemplifies the nature and stakes of this election". Paul Ryan is indeed a thoughtful, serious politician, a man of big ideas who focuses more on policy than on politics. And while Vice-presidential candidates do not determine elections, Ryan will certainly excite the base and shake up the turnout. Some Republicans in Congress, however, have expressed their uneasiness about Ryan's direct assault on Medicare and Social Security, which they find politically dangerous: it may affect the senior vote in key swing states like Florida, and retirees constitute the most reliable voter block on Election Day: rain or sun they will find their way to the voting booth. This election will again be determined mainly by turnout. But in spite of the risk, this bold choice puts the lackluster Romney campaign on more secure footing: he is now a leader with a vision and a plan for dealing with the national debt. Whether you agree with Paul Ryan's budget plan or not (he would cut entitlements, change the way Medicare is delivered and make the tax system less progressive), his youth, intelligence, good looks and candid approach is refreshing to most audiences. Because he is a true heir to the Reagan revolution (during his formative years as a congressional aid he was drafted as a policy aid to Empower America, a think tank focused on preserving the Reagan legacy) he is not only a magnet for the Tea Partiers but also to the supply-siders and Reagan admirers, in other words, a true fiscally conservative Republican. Surprisingly, most Democrats welcomed the choice if for nothing else because it opens new opportunities for more substantive and targeted attacks on Romney. The shift to a more philosophical discussion on the nature of government will be relished by Obama since it will give him a chance to explain his own vision instead of being on the defense from weak job reports, month after month. In the meantime, while Washington focuses on debt, deficit reduction and the ominous "fiscal cliff", the US remains a magnet for foreign investors who prefer US Treasury bonds as the safest haven on earth. This breeds complacency and defers serious efforts by either party to cut spending. Sobre la autora Profesora de Política Comparativa. Universidad del Old Dominion, Norfolk, Virginia.
Cuba has experienced regularly international interventions of different forms due to geopolitical and economic foreign interests. The construction and survival of a post revolutionary economic and social model depended on the support or rejection of the superpowers during the Cold War. Almost 60 years after the Revolution its economy is still dependent on external factors and foreign financing. Cuba has now a double challenge: implementing an economic and political reform process and achieving its return to the hemispheric community. ; Por intereses geopolíticos y económicos, Cuba padeció la constante intervención internacional. La construcción y la supervivencia de un modelo económico y social post-revolucionario, dependieron del apoyo o "del rechazo" de los países protagonistas durante la Guerra Fría, y casi 60 años después de la Revolución, su economía está condicionada por factores y financiamiento externos. Cuba tiene ahora un doble desafío: alcanzar una reforma económica y política y lograr su reinserción en la comunidad hemisférica.
El importante análisis de un contexto en el que urge re-pensar el papel del Estado y la toma del poder por vía electoral, así mismo, es también de vital importancia,retomar también la reflexión-acción en torno a los procesos desde abajo, comunitarios, colectivos, de esos múltiples procesos que si bien pudiésemosidentificar como locales y pequeños, pero que multiplicados suman fuerza en tanto constituyen sujetos anclados a una historia, a un territorio. ; The major analysis of the context in which urgent re-think the role of government and take power through elections, likewise, is also of vital importance, also regain reflection-action processes around the bottom, community , buses, multiple processes such that while we could identify as local and small, but added strength multiplied while subjects are anchored to a story, to a territory.
The major analysis of the context in which urgent re-think the role of government and take power through elections, likewise, is also of vital importance, also regain reflection-action processes around the bottom, community , buses, multiple processes such that while we could identify as local and small, but added strength multiplied while subjects are anchored to a story, to a territory. ; El importante análisis de un contexto en el que urge repensar el papel del Estado y la toma del poder por vía electoral, así mismo, es también de vital importancia, retomar también la reflexión acción en torno a los procesos desde abajo, comunitarios, colectivos, de esos múltiples procesos que si bien pudiésemos identificar como locales y pequeños, pero que multiplicados suman fuerza en tanto constituyen sujetos anclados a una historia, a un territorio.
We discuss a model of gradual coalition formation with positive externalities in which a leading country endogenously decides whether to negotiate multilaterally or sequentially over climate change. We show that the leader may choose a sequential path, and that the choice is determined by the convexity of the TU-game and the free-rider payoffs of the followers. Except in a few clearly defined cases, the outcome of the negotiation process is always the grand coalition, although the process may need some time. This holds for the standard IEA game with heterogeneous players even if the grand coalition is not stable in a multilateral context. We also analyze the role of a facilitating agency. The agency has an incentive to speed up intra-stage negotiations and to extend the period between negotiation stages in a sequential process. ; Peer reviewed
The general purpose that guides this article is to contribute to the critique and study of the possibilities of reformulation of the category of social totality and social change or some of their central elements, as theoretical alternatives to think again about the urgent and historical matter of development (mainly in its economic dimension), in order to face the new cultural and political challenges present in Latin American societies. ; Orienta el desarrollo del artículo el propósito de contribuir a la crítica y al estudio de las posibilidades de reformulación de la categoría de totalidad social y cambio social o bien de elementos centrales de las mismas, como alternativas teóricas para repensar la urgente e histórica cuestión del desarrollo (principalmente en su dimensión económica) y con ello hacer frente a los nuevos desafíos culturales y políticos que se presentan en las sociedades latinoamericanas.
Scholarly studies of elites and political elites have a vibrant recent history. My aim here is to provide a selective summary of that history, focusing on the importance of social distinction and the theories of power structure as a theoretical background for understanding the influence of political elites in social change. Since new insights and concerns have emerged in this field, the organization of this essay is not entirely chronological. Even though I may have ignored many relevant contributions, my hope here is to provide some sense of the richness and significance of what have been accomplished by scholars regarding the relationship among elites and representation, the links between elites, democracy and social change and the theories of power structure. In this paper I also study the extent to which the introduction of a new research method by Domhoffian class domination theory opened a new insight in élite studies. Finally, an élite research strategy and two main conclusions are presented subsequently. ; Los estudios académicos acerca de las élites políticas poseen una vibrante historia reciente. El objetivo aquí es proveer un resumen selectivo de esa historia, enfocándose en la importancia de la distinción social y en las teorías de la estructura de poder como el marco teórico para comprender la influencia de las élites políticas en el cambio social. Dado que nuevas perspectivas y preocupaciones han surgido en este campo, la organización de este artículo no es completamente cronológica. Aunque puedan haberse ignorado muchas contribuciones relevantes, la intención aquí es brindar algún sentido de la riqueza e importancia de lo que han logrado los académicos acerca de la relación entre élites y representación, los vínculos entre élites, democracia y cambio social y las teorías de la estructura de poder. En este artículo también se estudia hasta qué grado la introducción de una nueva metodología de investigación por parte de la teoría de la dominación de clase de Domhoff abrió una nueva perspectiva en ...
