From the introduction: The last two years mark a turning point in public perception of human-induced climate change as a problem of global importance. The widespread acceptance that 'most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas [GHG] concentrations' has increased political pressure on governments to reduce GHG emissions. At the same time, rising oil prices have made the reduction of dependence on energy imports and diversification of the energy mix strategic imperatives for many countries around the world. While governments worldwide are confronted with this dual challenge, it is of special relevance to China. On the one hand, China has recently become the world's largest emitter of CO2, accounting for 24% of global annual CO2 emissions. China is therefore one of the most important players to effectively mitigate global warming and pressure from governments around the world on China to join emission reductions efforts is mounting. On the other hand, energy demand is growing exponentially and China is increasingly relying on energy imports to satisfy energy needs. Worried that growing dependency on energy imports may be accompanied by foreign-policy and economic pressures that might threaten national security as well as social and political stability, China has implemented a number of policies to address this issue ranging from policies to save energy and reduce energy intensity, to the diversification of oil supply sources and routes, the support of equity oil overseas acquisitions and the build up of strategic oil reserves to the diversification of the energy portfolio. In line with the objective to diversify the composition of the energy mix, China's leadership is increasingly realizing the need to reduce emissions and support renewable energy development. At a recently held Politburo study session, President Hu Jintao exclaimed: 'Our task is tough, and our time is limited. Party organisations and governments at all levels must give priority to emission reduction and bring the idea deep into people's hearts". To address the issue of energy security, the Chinese government has adapted a two-pronged approach. While measures to promote energy savings and efficiency curb the increase in energy demand, the support of renewable and nuclear energy reduces dependency on energy imports and contributes to the broadening of the foundation of energy supply. This study focuses on China's renewable energy policy and the development of wind energy in China in particular. Commitment by the highest levels of government and a host of favourable policies have triggered a boom in renewable energy in China, especially in the wind power sector. A major step in the development of renewable energy in China has been the Renewable Energy Law that came into effect in January 2006. In addition, the government has set ambitious targets for energy intensity reduction, and share of renewable energy of primary energy consumption. China is on the way to become the world leader in renewable energies. In 2007, investment in renewable energies in China amounted to approximately US$ 12 billion, second only to Germany. In terms of installed renewable energy capacity, China leads the world with 151 GW of installed capacity, largely due to the widespread utilization of hydropower for electricity generation. According to a report by the United Nations Environmental Programme, China is the world's leading manufacturer of solar cells, with an estimated annual production capacity of 3.000 MW. China's wind power market was the third biggest worldwide in 2007 and growth rates continue to exceed expectations. In 2009, China is expected to take the lead as the largest manufacturer of wind turbines. Hydro power represents the most important source of renewable energy in China and plays an important part in the power generation portfolio, most notably since the construction of the Three Gorges Dam. Hydro capacity is expected to double to 290 GW until 2020, but concerns about the social and environmental impact of large-scale hydro power are becoming stronger. Although China is the world's leading solar manufacturer, installed solar photovoltaic power capacity amounts to a mere 0.01% of total power generation capacity (80 MW, approx. 50% of which are off-grid). Solar power equipment is produced almost exclusively for export. Considering China's enormous energy demand and the pace of its growth, deployment of solar photovoltaic power is not viewed as a first-rate solution to satisfy China's energy needs, since it features high costs and low efficiencies compared to other renewables like hydro or wind power. While China does not have significant amounts of solar PV capacity, it is the biggest market for solar thermal systems for heating and hot water supply with 64,5% of global capacity, amounting to 68 GW. Biomass covers 13% of primary energy demand, mostly used in rural households for heating and cooking. In 2007, only 0,28% of power generation capacity were fuelled by biomass. The government plans to expand biomass capacity from 2 to 30 GW by 2020. Despite the impressive progress of recent years, renewable energies - excluding hydro - only contribute less than 1% to China's electricity supply and the skies above China's urban areas continue to be shrouded by smog. Since coal-fired power generation accounts for 82,9% of total electricity supply, it is no surprise that half of China's emissions are attributable to power generation. With electricity demand growing rapidly alongside the economy, dependency on coal as the major source for power generation is likely to persist. However, as the most important source of renewable energy next to hydro, and growth of installed capacity constantly accelerating, peaking at about 130% in 2007, wind power is one of – if not the – most promising option on China's path towards diversification of the energy mix. In recent years wind power has become a mainstream source of renewable energy excelling with mature technology and power generation costs almost competitive with conventional power sources, providing a viable alternative to coal as a source of electricity generation. In 2005, just before the development of wind power started to pick up pace, the China Wind Power Training and Research Project (CWPP) of the German Development Cooperation (GTZ) saw its inception, with the aim of improving the conditions for sustained development of wind power in China. Primary objective of CWPP is the support of sustained long-term wind power development in China. To attain this goal CWPP supports the improvement of technical capabilities of private and government institutions and organizations through activities in the fields of wind power training, technical support and research. The project's engagement ranges from training of technicians in charge of operation and maintenance (OM) at wind farms to the introduction and localisation of software vital to wind resource assessment. These capacity building activities are complemented by wind power information services as well as policy advice to relevant government institutions. The CWPP activities and the indicators measuring its success are based on an analysis of framework conditions in 2003/2004. However, since then the general conditions for wind power in China have changed drastically due to policy changes inducing exponential growth of the industry. While from 2000 to 2005 total installed capacity grew at an average rate of 31%, it more than doubled in the last two years. Newly installed capacity increased at an even faster rate averaging 156% annual growth from 2005 till 2007. In light of the boom in the Chinese wind power sector, it is imperative to realign project activities with actual market conditions on the basis of an up-to-date assessment of the current situation and future outlook. This analysis of the wind power sector in China in 2008 will serve as a basis for the review of current CWPP activities with the aim of developing recommendations for adaptations where deemed necessary. Content Methodology: The study is divided into seven chapters. Subsequent to the introduction, the global development of wind power, its major drivers and trends are discussed briefly serving as a backdrop to the study. The third chapter introduces CWPP and its activities along with the current status of project implementation. The fourth and fifth chapter form the main body of this study. Beginning with the current picture of energy supply and demand, the fourth chapter goes on to introduce the relevant government authorities in charge of Chinese renewable energy policy. Since the basis for wind power development is government support, a detailed examination of renewable energy policy in China is given. The policies governing the wind power sector are reviewed in order to explore the origins of the current boom of the wind power industry. The fifth chapter offers an in-depth discussion of wind power in China, including wind power potential, current status of the market and future development as well as the situation with regards to wind power equipment manufacturers and project developers. In the sixth chapter, major determinants that have the potential to negatively affect the perspectives of wind power development in China are identified and discussed. As a conclusion, chapter seven offers recommendations for the realignment of CWPP activities according to the actual needs of the market. A series of expert interviews was conducted within the scope of the study. The experts interviewed included representatives of relevant government authorities, foreign and domestic wind turbine manufacturers, component suppliers, project developers, industry associations, universities, research institutes, consultancies, CDM agencies and environmental organizations. These interviews serve as a supplement to the evaluation of secondary literature and online sources so as to guarantee the timeliness and validity of information in the study. In cooperation with the China Electric Power Research Institute (CEPRI) and the Chinese Wind Energy Association (CWEA) the need for wind power-specific training and education for wind power equipment manufacturers and power generation companies was assessed through two separate surveys. In addition, two polls were conducted among wind turbine and component manufacturers at the China Wind Energy Exhibition 2008 in Shanghai and the Wind Power Asia 2008 in Beijing. These polls helped to identify the major challenges for the wind sector's future development in China and contributed to the assessment of the current situation with regard to human resources and qualification.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.INTRODUCTION7 1.1BACKGROUND7 1.2CONTENT METHODOLOGY9 2.THE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT OF WIND POWER10 2.1DEVELOPMENT OF THE GLOBAL WIND POWER MARKET10 2.2DRIVERS AND TRENDS OF WIND POWER DEVELOPMENT12 3.THE GTZ CHINA WIND POWER PROJECT17 4.ENERGY POLICY IN CHINA19 4.1ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND19 4.2RELEVANT PLAYERS IN ENERGY POLICY MAKING22 4.3RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WIND POWER POLICY25 4.3.1THE CONCESSION PROGRAMME AND ORIGINS OF WIND POWER PRICING25 4.3.2THE RENEWABLE ENERGY LAW29 4.3.3INVESTMENT CONDITIONS FINANCIAL INCENTIVES33 5.WIND POWER IN CHINA39 5.1WIND ENERGY RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS AND DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL39 5.2CURRENT STATUS OF DEVELOPMENT42 5.3MARKET FORECAST45 5.4WIND TURBINE MANUFACTURERS47 5.5WIND TURBINE COMPONENT SUPPLIERS55 5.6PROJECT DEVELOPERS55 5.7PROJECT ECONOMICS56 6.POTENTIAL PITFALLS FOR WIND POWER DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA58 6.1POLICY59 6.2HUMAN RESOURCES60 6.3WIND FARM PERFORMANCE LACK OF TRANSPARENCY63 6.4GRID INTEGRATION64 7.RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE GTZ CHINA WIND POWER PROJECT67 7.1WIND POWER EDUCATION TRAINING68 7.2RD AND TECHNOLOGICAL CAPACITY BUILDING70 7.3INFORMATION SERVICES71 7.4FINAL REMARKS73 Bibliography72Textprobe:Text Sample: Chapter 6.1, Potential Pitfalls for Wind Power Development in China: Wind power in China faces a series of adverse outer influences at present. Most of these are not expected to constitute insurmountable barriers to wind power development, but will impact the pace of development nonetheless. The financial crisis on Wall Street that has spread to financial markets around the world, spurs serious worries of a global economic downturn. The renewable energy sector is hit particularly hard by a deterioration of investor confidence, since many observers assume that renewable energy development same as environmental concerns will be shelved until the economies show signs of recovery. The wind industry in China will not be exempt from negative effects of the crisis. Since raising capital will prove difficult in this situation, planned IPOs will be moved back and investments may be deferred. The fall in oil prices in fear of a recession contributes to increase the discrepancy in profitability between conventional power and renewable energy projects (decrease the relative competitiveness of renewables). The rise in coal prices and the credit squeeze further draws liquidity from the market for project development. Rising prices in raw materials drive the increase in wind turbine prices. However, wind power development in China also faces a series of challenges of intrinsic nature. The tremendous pace at which the Chinese wind power sector has been evolving entails an inherent risk of undesirable developments. Reports of wind turbines not performing as expected or even collapsing, lack of due diligence in planning of wind farms, serial production errors in turbines, the counterfeiting of components. These incidents are often portrayed as isolated, but may be representative of greater erroneous trends in the industry. Government regulation will be essential in addressing the issues at stake and preventing them from becoming fundamental barriers to future wind power development. Policy: As mentioned before, government renewable energy and wind power policy have been the single most important driver for wind power development around the world. This is also true for China. A combination of wind power development targets, mandatory market share requirements, economic incentives and protective policies have created a burgeoning wind power market and a thriving domestic industry. Nevertheless, in order to prevent a bust from following the boom, a few adjustments of the policy framework are necessary in order to provide for sustained wind power development. Restrictive government policies, particularly with regard to wind power pricing and foreign investment, pose a serious barrier to the exploitation of a diverse set of investment sources for wind power development in China. Obstructive regulations for FDI, especially with regard to debt financing and CDM project ownership, serve as deterrents for foreign investors. Modes for participation in the regulatory process are unclear, as are rights to appeal regulatory decisions. The lack of a clear pricing policy guaranteeing secure and attractive profit margins for wind power projects has kept many potential investors at bay. Limited access to proper financing and insurance further discourages private and foreign investors. The development of a competitive power sector is also impeded by the dominance of state-owned power generators, who retain strong and often opaque links to state funds, while their levels of profit, subsidies and cross-subsidisation are undisclosed. The government has largely recognized the challenge to open up the market to private and foreign investors. Movement towards further improvement of the policy framework governing wind power is visible. Recently, the government has been addressing many of the most important barriers impeding wind power development. Wind power pricing policy has been slowly moving towards a more predictable and lucrative system of fixed feed-in tariffs. Government action has been taken to alleviate deficiencies regarding reliable wind resource data and the innovation capability of the domestic industry. According to some observers, CDM regulations are expected to be loosened in favour of foreign investors. Still, a number of challenges remain to be addressed, demanding government guidance in order to facilitate sustained, long-term development of wind power in China: - Enforce efforts to provide adequate wind power education and training programmes to ease the human resource deficit. - Establish strong mandatory wind turbine certification standards and support capacity building in the field of turbine testing, in order to ensure turbine quality/reliability and in the long-run improve global competitiveness of the domestic wind industry. - Facilitate smooth grid integration of wind power by: - strengthening the national power grid and interregional transmission capacity, taking into consideration the integration of wind power in the design of grid expansion plans by establishing management regulations and technical specifications to integrate wind power into grid planning; - mapping out comprehensive wind power development plans on national and provincial level in consultation with the grid companies, taking into account construction of other power generation capacity, (interregional) transmission capacity as well as the specific requirements of wind power grid integration; - redoubling research efforts with regard to the analysis of the influence of extensive deployment of wind power on the operation and management of the power grid, intensifying studies on accurate wind power forecasting to allow for effective dispatch of power and establishing a national grid code for wind turbines to ensure maximum electricity output of wind farms. - Tweak FDI, CDM and wind power policies to allow for more diversity in investment and enhance the efficiency of the power sector by creating a fair and open market. Clarify wind power pricing policies and facilitate access to government subsidized bank loans. - Increase transparency within the wind industry and power sector, e.g. with regard to information on wind farm energy output and turbine availability, in order to facilitate competition and intra-industry learning processes, enable timely identification of challenges and build investor confidence. Information transparency is also necessary to improve energy demand and (wind power) supply forecasts and thus provide for proper dispatch of power plants.
Over the last decade, Kenya's society and economy have changed fundamentally and these deep trends will continue. Rapid population growth and urbanization will create many new challenges which need to be managed well to support Kenya's economic take-off in the medium-term. This fourth edition of the Kenya economic update argues that Kenya can turn the tide in turbulent times and make the most of the ongoing structural shifts. In 2011, Kenya will need to address short-term domestic and international shocks, including higher inflation, pressures on the exchange rate and, most importantly, a volatile political environment. The government will need to navigate through these shocks successfully and to continue with its economic reform program to achieve higher growth. At the same time, the government will be making major strategic decisions in Kenya's decentralization architecture which will shape the medium-term development prospects of the country. Economic success is possible, as the 5.6 percent growth in 2010 has shown. If growth will accelerate to an average of 6 percent this decade, Kenya will achieve middle income country status by 2019.
Bacillus cereus sensu lato comprises Gram-positive spore-forming bacteria producing toxins associated with foodborne diseases. Three pore-forming enterotoxins, nonhemolytic enterotoxin (Nhe), hemolysin BL (Hbl), and cytotoxin K (CytK), are considered the primary factors in B. cereus sensu lato diarrhea. The aim of this study was to determine the potential risk of enterotoxicity among soil B. cereus sensu lato isolates representing diverse phylogroups and originated from different geographic locations with various climates (Burkina Faso, Kenya, Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Poland). While nheA- and hblA-positive isolates were present among all B. cereus sensu lato populations and distributed across all phylogenetic groups, cytK-2-positive strains predominated in geographic regions with an arid hot climate (Africa) and clustered together on a phylogenetic tree mainly within mesophilic groups III and IV. The highest in vitro cytotoxicity to Caco-2 and HeLa cells was demonstrated by the strains clustered within phylogroups II and IV. 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Politics in the Pacific Island nation of Vanuatu, located east of Australia, can be turbulent, with constant chessboard moves among parliamentary members with fluid party ties and frequent no confidence motions. But the strategic importance of the country to the U.S.-Australia alliance and China was a factor in the recent abrupt expulsion of the 10-month-old government led by then-Prime Minister Alatoi Ishmael Kalsakau.In late August, Kalsakau lost a vote of no confidence against him by opposition leader Bob Loughman, who has for years backed China's increasing influence in the Pacific nation. After disputes about the vote result, Loughman was appointed deputy prime minister in the new government under Prime Minister Sato Kilman, who took the helm on September 4. The sudden change in administration came a year after Loughman, a former prime minister, ceded his leadership after parliament was dissolved and he avoided a vote of no confidence against himself. The snap election which followed in October last year saw Kalsakau take the top job.While the government is contending with domestic issues, such as a struggling economy, unemployment and contentious debates about the minimum wage, the main trigger for the latest political crisis was a security agreement with Australia signed by Kalsakau in December last year and due for parliamentary ratification. Vanuatu is one of many Pacific Island states that do not have their own armed forces and depend on military assistance from bilateral partners when needed.For Loughman, the unratified bilateral pact, which would increase military and law enforcement, but also disaster and humanitarian relief and cybersecurity co-operation with Australia, could have risked Vanuatu's relations with China. New Prime Minister Kilman claimed there had been a lack of consultation about the pact with ministers. Yet it was not an unknown or hasty development. Discussions about the agreement had been occurring between Australia and successive governments in Vanuatu for five years. "Australia respects Vanuatu's sovereign decision-making processes, including in relation to the bilateral security agreement that began in 2018 and was signed in 2022," Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs responded. The signing of the pact followed deep concerns by the U.S. and its allies about China's security agreement with the Solomon Islands that was announced last April.Soon after taking office, Kilman vehemently denied any geopolitical reasons for the crisis, claiming that the country had always and will continue to be "neutral" in big power contests. "We are not pro-West and we are not pro-Chinese," he said. "We adopt a non-aligned policy." Indeed, Vanuatu has a spectrum of development and aid relations with Australia, New Zealand, China and Japan, and its mobile paramilitary police force has also received support from Australia, New Zealand and China.Yet, in being non-aligned, Vanuatu was swift in 2016 to declare its support for China's territorial claim to islands in the South China Sea that are at the center of a heated sovereignty dispute and military provocation between the East Asian powerhouse and several of its Southeast Asian neighbors. And, for U.S. commentators, a high-risk site for potential conflict.Despite the Pacific nation remaining outside of any direct military involvement in U.S.-China geopolitics, it has, under some political leaders, become increasingly receptive to China's political influence. Last year, Loughman signed an array of agreements with China on technology, energy, infrastructure, health and economic development and, the year before, a multi-million dollar bilateral grant agreement on economic and technical cooperation. In 2018, Chinese funding and construction of a massive port development in the provincial, but geographically strategic, coastal town of Luganville, attracted international attention. Security experts speculated that, due to its exceptional size, it could potentially be used as a warship base.In contrast, Kalsakau has been publicly critical of China's penetration of Vanuatu's political life for several years. In 2018, he told the Australian media there wasn't enough internal scrutiny of the massive inflow of Chinese loans, businesses and influence and "he feared China was pursuing its strategic interests by showering Vanuatu with largesse and deepening its influence in the country." Last year, Vanuatu's public debt totalled 40 percent of GDP. China, its largest foreign creditor, is owed more than one third of its total external debt, which totals about $314 million and constitutes 32 percent of GDP.French President Emmanuel Macron expressed additional concerns during a visit to Vanuatu in July. "There is in the Indo-Pacific, and particularly in Oceania, new imperialism appearing and a power logic that is threatening the sovereignty of several states; the smallest, often the most fragile,"Macron said.Vanuatu, like many Pacific Island states, is a Westminster-style parliamentary democracy. But its statecraft is heavily influenced by norms of Melanesian customary governance that have prevailed for centuries. The power of traditional clan leaders in island societies is determined by their ability to acquire and distribute wealth and resources to their constituencies, rather than adherence to an ideology or party-driven policies. While political cultures in the Pacific are evolving, this legacy makes politicians particularly vulnerable to China's strategies of economic largesse and coercion which entails reciprocity.During his recent tenure as prime minister, Kalsakau attempted to broaden his country's international relations, bringing in other development partners, such as Saudi Arabia, and working for wide-ranging global support of its legal probe of climate justice at the UN General Assembly. He also took steps to reform Vanuatu's controversial citizenship-selling program in response to security concerns by the EU which has had a visa waiver arrangement with the nation.There is no doubt that Pacific Island leaders are opposed to being parties in the regional U.S.-China rivalry and are reasserting their rights of sovereignty above all else. At a meeting in August of the Melanesian Spearhead Group, an inter-governmental organization of southwest Pacific Island states, leaders emphasized their refusal to take sides in geopolitical battles.But regional analysts also point to Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and Samoa being located on a key geographical axis, which is crucial to maritime access into and across the Pacific Ocean by the U.S., Australia and China.Yet, despite the political upheaval, the new prime minister has not dismissed closer security ties with Australia; only that the pending agreement won't be ratified in its current form. "My view would be to revisit the agreement with both sides, the Australians and the Vanuatu government, and see if there's any sticking points and then address that," Kilman was quoted on September 4.Some Australian strategists support Vanuatu's greater scrutiny of the pact, claiming that it is a sign of democratic processes at work. But, in terms of a timeline, it is unlikely to be an immediate priority for the new leadership.
The majority of the people in sub-Saharan Africa depend on natural and planted forests for subsistence use and income generation. Despite this, the status of forests and wood-processing industries and their multiple uses are poorly understood. In Ethiopia information on the status and contribution of the forest and wood-processing industries to economic development is scanty and fragmented. The study was designed to contribute to filling this gap by analysing the status of the forest resource, assessing the contribution of the forest and wood-processing industries to the national economy with emphasis on the cost structure, and identifying innovations in the wood-processing industries. The study was further developed scenarios to upgrade wood product supply in Ethiopia. The study focuses on the macro-level analysis complementing same with micro-level data that looks into wood-processing industries of the country. Cluster analysis and innovation systems are frameworks employed in collecting and analysing both primary and secondary data. Secondary data on forests in Ethiopia are generally lacking. The analysis was conducted using data from 2010 as the reference year. The year 2010 was chosen as it is the only year for which the most recent aggregated social accounting matrix table for Ethiopia was available. Primary data were collected from key informant interviews and by undertaking survey in selected wood processing industries. A consultation workshop was conducted with different stakeholders to develop alternative scenarios regarding options to meet national wood demands and to share and validate findings of the study. The quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics such as frequencies, means, and percentages. The qualitative information gathered was summarised, analysed, and interpreted in the form of narratives. The study covered the six major forest types in Ethiopia from which significant wood volume is collected. The volume of wood reported to be harvested from these forests exceeded the annual incremental yield, indicating widening of the gap between supply and demand over time. The estimated wood product gap was 39 million m³ in 2013. The expanding gap between supply and demand of wood products in Ethiopia led to rapid increment in the volume of wood products imported, from 17,750 m3 in 1997 to 128,914 m3 in 2017. The estimated economic contribution of the forest sector and wood-processing industries in 2010 to the GDP was 4.2% and 0.036%, respectively. Regarding labour composition, both forest and wood-processing industries are dependent on unskilled labour with the respective share of 44.6% and 40.4%. The results also show that the forest sector has a strong linkage with the domestic economy, with 99.95% share as the input source. Wood-processing industries are mainly dependent on imported raw materials with a share of 51.6% of inputs. If the multiplier effect of the forest sector is considered, its contribution to the GDP could increase by up to 72%. Thus, a unit increment in the forest and wood-processing industries will have a multiplier effect on household income by 1.35 and 0.43, respectively. It is the non-poor households in small urban settlements that would benefit more in both cases. The strong forward and backward linkages of the forest sector indicated the potential of forests to support the national economic development as compared to the wood processing industries that showed a weak backward linkage due to its dependency on imported raw material, high price of round wood from domestic markets, and underdevelopment of plantation forestry in Ethiopia. Production factors related and supporting sectors, and government supports were found to be the constraining factors that affect the competitiveness of studied wood processing industries. The demand for wood products has a positive influence on the competitiveness of wood processing industries. The cost structure analysis showed variations with the types of wood processing industries. Raw material was the main input cost for the Ethiopian Chip Wood and Furniture Company (43%), and Ethiopian Plywood Enterprise (51%), while the overhead cost was the main costs (76%) for the Arsi Negelle sawmill. Imported chemicals raised the cost of the studied panel industries. However, the Arsi Negelle sawmill incurs a relatively low cost for raw material. This is because the Arsi Negelle sawmill uses its own plantations nearby the industry, which reduces the transportation cost. The analysis of sectoral innovation system actors indicated weak implementation of the expected roles. They are also poorly networked with the wood-processing industries. The identified constraining factors for innovation activities also include out-dated machines, lack of incentives for the employees, limited skilled manpower, insufficient financial resources, and inadequacy in research and development. Innovation activities identified are processing and marketing innovations in Maichew particleboard and Mitike sawmill, respectively. The introduction of innovation contributed to increasing the number of customers, revenue generated, jobs created, and volume of products sold. More innovation activities were identified in privately owned than in state-owned factories. Three scenarios were developed in identifying and examining prevailing options to reduce the gap between supply and demand of wood products in the country. These are business-as-usual, the government plan, and the independent experts' opinion scenarios. The business-as-usual scenario assumes that no major change will happen in the forest sector. This scenario assumed that the main problems remain the same and the supply-demand gap will widen using the current trend. The government plan scenario assumes that the country will build a climate-resilient green economy by 2030 as envisages in its CRGE strategy issued in 2011. In this scenario, significant investment is expected to reduce the gap. Official records show that between 2016 and 2019, the production of wood products increased and reached 8,703,439 m³ and revenue collection grew to 9,352,816 USD. Despite this, supply-demand gap continued to widen, resulting in increased importation of various wood products. The independent experts' scenario was developed based on the assessment of the unsustainability of the first scenario and the ambitious and unrealistic goals of the second scenario. The scenario of experts considered factors that will improve or undermine production and productivity of forests and meet demands for biomass fuel, industrial wood, and small diameter poles. As per this scenario, sustainable wood product supply is expected to increase and imports to be reduced by 20% in the coming decade. Scenarios developed provided insights for policymakers and suggested the need for strategic planning for developing forest resources and wood industries in the country. Measures to transform the forest sector and wood processing industries of Ethiopia need to consider their contribution and multiplier effects to the national economy. Regarding theoretical aspects, the thesis demonstrated there are some limitations associated with Social Accounting Matrix data quality, which limits the ability to interpret the forward and backward linkages. Yet, the analysis revealed that there is weak cooperation among innovation systems actors to work together. The study hopes to form the basis for further studies and proposed areas for future research to improve the economic contribution of forests and wood processing industries to the national economy.:1 Introduction 2 Theoretical concepts and analytical framework 3 Methodological framework 4 Overview of the forestry sector and its contribution to the national economy 5 Competitiveness and cost structure analysis of wood-processing industries in Ethiopia 6 Innovation system and innovations in the wood-processing industries of Ethiopia 7 Scenario development to upgrade the wood product supply in Ethiopia 8 Synthesis and conclusion References
Transport er en fundamental faktor for den økonomiske udvikling og en af hjørnestenene bag velfærd. Den er yderligt ansvarlig for 28% af det endelige energiforbrug og 23 % af alle energirelaterede CO2 emissioner i verden, og anses som den sværeste sektor at dekarbonisere. For at kunne reducere karbon intensiteten og energiforbruget i transportsektoren er både teknologierne og forbrugsmønster nødvendige at ændre. Energisystemmodeller er et værdifuldt værktøj for langsigtede energiplanlægning. Beslutningstagere verden over har brugt modeller i mere end tre årtier til at analysere alternative retningslinjer for drivhusgas frie energi systemer og til at teste politiske tiltag. Kategorien buttom-up energi-økonomi-miljø-ingeniørarbejde (E4) modeller står for en detaljeret repræsentation af energi systemet. Dog er disse modeller ofte svage til at repræsentere menneskelig adfærd, selvom det er et fundamentalt element for beslutningstagere i transportsektoren. Denne afhandling udfylder dette hul i energisystemmodeller gennem forskellige metoder, der kan repræsentere adfærd inden for transport sektoren, og fremviser dermed retningslinjer til udføre nye transportanalyser og politiske incitament strukturer. Indledningsvist undersøger denne afhandling eksisterende videnskabelig litteratur inden for energi- og transportmodellering. Denne fremhæver manglende modellering af adfærdstendenser hos beslutningstagere og identificerer transportmiddelskift og køretøjs valg, som hovedpunkter, der skal integreres i modellerings værktøjer for at overkomme de eksisterende begrænsninger. Afhandlingen præsenterer metoder udviklet inden for rammerne af dette Ph.d. studie til at modellere transportmiddelskift og køretøjs valg i den danske TIMES energi systems model, TIMES-DK. De udvilkede metoderne kan klassificeres i to underkategorier: værktøjer udviklet med henblik på blive inkorporeret i TIMES-DK med transportspecifikke variabler og de der forbinder TIMES-DK med en ekstern transport-model. Som følge af den omfattende udvikling og test af metoder i dette Ph.d. studie er målet, at afhandlingen skal bruges som en manual for kollegaer og forskere med interesse inden for E4 modeller og forbrugernes adfærdsmønster i transport sektoren. Afhandlingen beskriver hvordan traditionelle E4 buttom-up optimerings modeller kan overkomme begrænsningerne takket være de udvikledet værktøjer. Yderligere, sammenlignes metodernes evne til at skildre adfærdsmæssige hovedtræk med henblik på at besvare politiske spørgsmål og den krævende indsats for at reproducere modellen. De nye metodiske værktøjer leder til en dybere og mere gennemgående analyse af fossil frie scenarier, hvor både adfærdsmønster og teknologiske dimensioner er inkluderet. Resultatet af denne afhandling indikerer at transportmiddelskift potentielt har positiv indvirkning i at dekarbonisere energi systemet og hjælpe med at opnå en fossilfri energi sektor i Danmark inden 2050 og kan sænke dens kumulative CO2 udledning. Undersøgelser udviklet i denne Ph.d.s anvendelsesområde bekræfter at forventes biler fortsat at være det førende transportmiddel i fremtiden. Et transportmiddelskift skal dog stadig suppleres med en Page | 4 elektrificering af bil-sektoren for at sænke drivhusgas udledningen i henhold til de danske klima målsætninger. Analyserne har til formål at informere danske beslutningstagere om energi- og transportplanlægning om det fordelagtige bidrag fra modalskifte og elektrificering af bil-sektoren for at reducere drivhusgasemissionerne. De nordiske erfaringer og model analyser er brugt til at give politiske anbefalinger til incitamentstrukturer som beslutningstagere kan iværksætte i praksis for at opnå et transportmiddelskift væk fra konventionelle biler og til mere klimavenlige transportmidler og indfasning af elbiler. Til slut diskuterer denne Ph.d.-afhandling hvilke forskningsområder, inden for forbrugervalg i BU optimering E4 modeller, der er stadigvæk er svagt belyst og anbefaler interessante energi- og transportanalyser, der bør udføres ved at benytte de nye modeller, som er udviklet i denne Ph.d.- afhandling. ; Transport is a fundamental driver of economic development and a key supporter of welfare. Nonetheless, it is responsible for approximately 28% of global final energy use, 23% of the global energyrelated CO2 emissions and is regarded as the most complicated sector to decarbonise. In order to reduce the carbon intensity and energy consumption of the transportation sector, both technological and behavioural changes are required. Energy system models are a valuable tool for long-term energy planning. Decision makers have been using these models for more than three decades to explore alternative pathways towards greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions free energy systems and to test the potential impact of policy measures. Bottom-up (BU) energy-economy-environment-engineering (E4) models in particular can provide a detailed technological representation of the energy system. However, these models are generally weak at representing human behaviour, despite it is a fundamental aspect of decision making in the transportation sector. This PhD thesis fills this gap by proposing several methodologies that improve the representation of consumers' choice in passenger transport within energy system models, thus paving the way for the possibility to carry out novel transport analyses and to consider a wider array of decarbonisation policies. The first part of this thesis reviews the current scientific literature regarding integrated energy and transport models. It highlights the failing in representing consumers' decision making and identifies modal choice and vehicle choice as key behavioral features to be integrated in the modeling framework to overcome the existing limitation. Following these two findings, this thesis presents the methodologies developed within the scope of this PhD research to incorporate modal choice and vehicle choice in TIMES-DK, the TIMES model of the Danish energy system. The methodologies developed can be classified in two categories: those that extend the structure of the TIMES model to accommodate novel transport-specific variables and those that link the TIMES model with an external transport model. Thanks to the broad spectrum of approaches developed and tested within the scope of this PhD research, this thesis ultimately aims at acting as a guide for fellow researchers interested in including behavioural realism of transport users' choice in E4 models. The thesis describes how traditional limits in the representation of behaviour within BU optimization E4 models can be addressed with the different approaches developed. Then, it compares the various methodologies with respect to the capability to capture key behavioural features, to answer different policy questions and to the modeling efforts required to reproduce the models. The novel methodologies proposed inaugurate the possibility to perform more comprehensive analyses of decarbonisation pathways, which include both the behavioural and technological dimension. The results of the PhD study indicate that modal shift potentially has a positive contribution to the decarbonisation of the energy system, helping to reach carbon-neutral energy system in Denmark in 2050 at faster pace and with lower cumulative emissions. The analyses carried out within the scope of this PhD research find that car transport is likely to maintain the highest modal share also in the future, suggesting that modal shift should be accompanied by the electrification of the car sector to comply with the Danish environmental targets and overarching climate targets. The analyses are intended to inform Danish policy makers dealing with energy and transport planning on the beneficial contribution of modal shift and of the electrification of the car stock to reduce GHG emissions. The Nordic experience and the findings of the modeling analyses are used to give policy recommendations on the measures that the authorities should put in practice to encourage modal shift away from car to more sustainable modes of transport and to promote the deployment of electric cars. Finally, this PhD thesis discusses future research to address the remaining gaps concerning the representation of consumers' choice within BU optimization E4 models and suggests interesting energy and transport analyses that should be performed using the novel models hereby proposed.
Dissertação de Mestrado em Gestão e Internacionalização de Empresas ; Com a aquisição do direito de livre circulação de pessoas e comércio e com a diminuição das barreiras económicas, políticas e sociais, o turismo demonstrou-se um mecanismo de geração interna de riqueza. Contudo, as constantes mutações do espaço económico e a saturação do mercado interno, exigiu ao setor turístico uma maior competitividade e aplicação de inovação e diferenciação nos seus produtos/serviços. Para subsistirem no mercado, e manterem o seu posicionamento competitivo, a indústria hoteleira, viu nas suas vantagens internas uma oportunidade de explorar mercados internacionais, pelo que, ao longo dos anos, a internacionalização do turismo e o seu potencial impacto no desenvolvimento económico e social das regiões, assim como as suas determinantes, têm vindo a ser alvo de aprofundamento por parte dos estudiosos. Apesar do elevado contributo, deste segmento de atividade, para o desenvolvimento da economia, são ainda verificadas muitas desigualdades, não sendo o fluxo turístico, a internacionalização ou fixação de cadeias hoteleiras estrangeiras proporcional em todas as regiões portuguesas. Neste sentido, a literatura enumera algumas variáveis que podem explicar este fenómeno, como o nível educacional, conhecimentos partilhados e experiências adquiridas pelos recursos humanos; o grau de aglomeração de empresas do setor turístico e de produtos complementares; fatores macroeconómicos subjacentes à economia ou, até mesmo, recursos herdados/adquiridos ou fatores climatéricos. De forma a averiguar o impacto das determinantes, na indústria hoteleira e nos fluxos de turismo, foram realizados três estudos diferentes, sendo um deles elaborado ao nível das NUTS III e os restantes ao nível dos municípios, existindo uma comparação de resultados para o ano de referência. Numa primeira fase, com o intuito de verificar se existem evidências estatísticas para afirmar que as variáveis validadas pela literatura, i.e. aglomeração, conhecimento e recursos turísticos, são significativas para a decisão de internacionalização das cadeias hoteleiras, utilizou-se a base de dados por NUTS III e a análise de regressão linear multivariada. Numa segunda fase, aplicando a mesma técnica de análise, mas ao nível dos municípios e considerando apenas as variáveis de aglomeração e conhecimento, efetuou-se uma comparação direta com o estudo anterior, para a verificação de evidências estatísticas que afirmem a relação das variáveis em análise com a internacionalização da indústria hoteleira. Ainda nesta segunda etapa, as mesmas variáveis foram estudas para medir o impacto na proporção de turistas internacionais recebidos anualmente pelo país e a representação gráfica será elaborada. Numa terceira fase, considerando as variáveis até então estudadas, e acrescentando outras i.e., importação, exportação e temperatura, também aplicadas em estudos científicos relacionados ao turismo, realizou-se uma análise de regressão logística para estimar a probabilidade associada à decisão de internacionalização dos hotéis ou estabelecimento de cadeias hoteleiras estrangeiras em território português. Os resultados obtidos no primeiro artigo, permitem concluir que a aglomeração de empresas relacionadas ao setor do turismo é estatisticamente significativa, enquanto que, apenas alguns recursos de conhecimento e endógenos são estatisticamente significativos para a internacionalização do setor hoteleiro. No segundo artigo, verifica-se que a aglomeração continua a ser estaticamente significativa para internacionalização dos hotéis, assim como alguns recursos de conhecimento. Verifica-se, igualmente, ao nível da proporção de turistas internacionais que a aglomeração e alguns recursos de conhecimentos são estatisticamente significativos. Os mapas caracterizam os municípios de acordo com as variáveis em estudo. No terceiro artigo, conclui-se que a existência de um elevado grau de conhecimento, acesso a recursos herdados ou adquiridos e a participação no comércio internacional, afetam a probabilidade de internacionalização da indústria hoteleira, enquanto que a probabilidade de estabelecimento de hotéis estrangeiros varia de acordo com o nível de comércio internacional, recursos naturais e histórico-culturais e o clima das regiões. ; The acquisition of free movement of people and commerce and the reduction of economic, political and social barriers, tourism has shown to be a mechanism of wealth generation. However, the constant changes in the economic space and the saturation of the internal market led the tourism sector to become more competitive and apply innovation and differentiation in its products / services. In order to survive in the market and maintain its competitive position, the hotel industry found in its internal advantages an opportunity to explore international markets, so over the years the internationalization of tourism and its potential impact on regional economic and social development, as well as their determinants, have been intensified by scholars. Despite the high contribution of this industry to the development of the economy, many inequalities persist in terms of the tourist flow, internationalization or establishment of foreign hotel chains proportional in all Portuguese regions. In this sense, the literature lists some variables that may explain this phenomenon, such as educational level, shared knowledge and experiences acquired by human resources; the degree of agglomeration of tourism firms and complementary products; macroeconomic factors underlying the economy or even inherited / acquired resources or climacteric factors. In order to find out the impact of the determinants in the hotel industry and tourism flows, three different studies were conducted, one being established at the level of NUTS III and the rest at the counties level, allowing to compare results. At an initial stage, in order to verify statistical evidence to confirm that the variables validated by the literature, i.e. agglomeration, knowledge and touristic resources, are significant for the internationalization decision of the hotel chains, based on NUTS III data subjected to multivariate linear regression analysis. In a second stage, applying the same techniques, but at the level of the counties and considering only the variables of agglomeration and knowledge, a direct comparison was made with the previous study, for verifying statistical evidence that confirm the relation between the variables in analysis with the internationalization of the hotel industry. Subsequently, the same variables were used to measure the impact on the proportion of international tourists received, annually, using the graphical representation. In a third stage, considering the variables previously studied, and adding others i.e., import, export and temperature, also applied in scientific studies related to tourism, a logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate the probability associated to the internationalization decision of the hotels or establishment of foreign hotel chains in Portuguese territory. The results obtained in the first article allow us to conclude that the agglomeration of firms related to the tourism sector is statistically significant, whereas only some knowledge and endogenous resources are statistically significant for the internationalization of the hotel sector.In the second article it is verified that the agglomeration continues to be statically significant for the internationalization of the hotels, as well as some knowledge resources. It is also verified, at the level of the proportion of international tourists, that the agglomeration and some resources of knowledge are statistically significant. The maps characterize the counties according to the variables under study. In the third article, it is concluded that the existence of a high degree of knowledge, access to inherited or acquired resources and participation in international trade, affects the probability of internationalization of the hotel industry, while the probability of establishing foreign hotels varies according to the level of international trade, natural and historical-cultural resources and the climate of the regions.
A large divide in environmental science exists between the developed ("Northern") and developing ("Southern") countries. The latter, mainly located in tropical and subtropical regions, have been neglected as environmental research subjects and have only been marginally involved in generating knowledge and in setting research priorities. Only approximately 6% of all papers published in the most-cited nine environmental science journals from 1993-2003 focused in tropical and subtropical ecosystems. Yet, tropical ecosystems account for 52% of the Earth's surface, are critical to the global carbon and hydrogeological cycles, harbor most of the world's biodiversity, and are a source of valuable renewable and non-renewable resources. This North-South disparity precludes the contribution of research from the South to national and global environmental governance, and limits the visibility of issues that concern the South in the global policy agenda. The Northern bias also results in a narrow, incomplete understanding of environmental systems and biased global environmental assessments. Within this North-South divide, significant knowledge gaps exist in the Tropics regarding the use patterns, properties, fate, transport and effects of pesticides, some of which are even classified as persistent organic pollutants. In the Tropics, pesticides are mainly used for the control of vector-borne diseases endemic to these areas, and as the main method of pest control in conventional agriculture. Pesticide use intensity and frequency is higher in the Tropics as the climates favor increased pest pressure and year-round crop growth. Pesticide use is expected to increase as tropical agricultural lands expand to satisfy the growing worldwide food demand. Several studies in the Tropics have detected pesticide residues in environmental matrices, biota, and humans in non-target sites. However, most of these studies are snapshots that often do not take into account temporal and spatial variability, resulting in scattered insights on pesticide behavior and limiting the ability to assess exposure. This thesis seeks to contribute to narrowing the North-South knowledge divide by coupling monitoring data with dynamic multimedia models to investigate the environmental fate and transport of pesticides used for health-care and agricultural purposes in the Tropics. The research presented herein capitalizes on the existing knowledge base in the South on chemical behavior, including grey literature and the field experience of Southern collaborators, and builds up on it through suitable approaches developed in the North, namely multimedia models. The first case study presented in this thesis addresses the cycling of a legacy pesticide used for malaria vector control in a remote community in the Brazilian Amazon, which relies on local sources of water and food. In Brazil, DDT was officially used for indoor residual spraying (IRS) against malaria and leishmaniasis from the 1960s up to a ban in 1998. In the community of Lake Puruzinho, DDT levels measured in human breastmilk in 2004 were significantly higher than WHO recommendations, and than those measured in neighboring communities with a similar history of DDT use for IRS. To investigate the fate of DDT and its transformation products in Puruzinho and to assess environmental exposure, soil and sediment measurements were conducted from 2005-2014 and a dynamic multimedia floodplain model was developed. The daily-resolved model takes into account the variable lake water levels, rainfall, and changes in emissions patterns based on legislation. Model results and measurements showed that DDT and its metabolites, DDE, and DDD (collectively, DDX), accumulate mainly in upland soils and sediments. Measurements show significant increases of DDX levels in the soil from 2005-2014 in association with decreasing DDE/DDT ratios, which disagree with model results assuming that DDT use ceases after 1998. This comparison and the availability of DDT stockpiles in the region suggest that post-ban DDT emissions are very likely, so two additional scenarios were tested: one assuming DDT use for IRS after a malaria upsurge, and another assuming its use against leishmaniasis and termites. Under both re-emissions scenarios, model results for DDX concentrations and DDE/DDT in soils agree with measurements, while those in sediments were between the two re-emissions scenarios. The model-measurement agreement in soils suggests that the fractions of formation and half-lives used to describe degradation in soil were adequate in the model. Further sediment measurements and research to refine highly uncertain parameters associated with degradation and partitioning in sediments are required to improve the model's representation of DDX cycling. The second case study addresses the fate and transport of pesticides currently used for banana and pineapple cultivation in the Caño Azul River drainage basin in Costa Rica, the world's 3rd largest banana producer. Pesticide monitoring programs in Europe and the United States, the main importers of Costa Rican bananas, show that residues in bananas are not of concern to consumer health. However, in banana-producing regions of Costa Rica, located mainly on the Caribbean Coast, pesticides have repeatedly been detected in rivers, canals, and wetlands, at levels associated with negative acute and chronic effects on aquatic organisms. Pesticide concentrations above USEPA recommendations for chronic exposure have also been detected in children and pregnant women living in the vicinity of banana plantations. Most studies on pesticide residues in the Costa Rican environment are scattered in time and space, which prevents adequate exposure assessments given the variable pesticide use patterns and characteristic pesticide pulses observed in surface waters. To capture these dynamics, a multimedia model was developed for the Caño Azul River drainage basin, which is influenced by two banana plantations and one pineapple plantation, and where pesticide measurements in water and air were available for model validation. The model estimates concentrations of three representative chemicals—the herbicide diuron, the nematicide ethoprofos, and the fungicide epoxiconazole—in water, air, soil, sediments, and banana plants. Model results show highly variable concentrations in water, with peaks that are driven by rainfall and emissions and that sometimes exceed thresholds for ecosystem health. Conversely, concentrations in the fruit remain below the EU and US maximum residue limits. Model improvements to better estimate pesticide concentrations include fine-tuning sediment dynamics and incorporating the impact of adjuvants on the properties of active ingredients. The models developed here have a flexible design, so additional processes and compartments can be incorporated as new insights are gained into pesticide partitioning, degradation, and mass transfer processes in the Tropics, perhaps in response to the research calls within this thesis. Upon further validation, the models can be used to evaluate the environmental fate of pesticides proposed as alternatives and of problematic degradation products of existing chemicals. They can also be used to assess environmental exposure to pesticides that have not been measured in the environment due to analytical limitations, yet are widely used, such as fungicide mancozeb in banana cultivation. It is important to note that even though multimedia models are valuable decision support tools for identifying opportunities to reduce pesticide exposure and transfer to non-target sites, they should complement pesticide safe handling and use practices suitable for the Tropics, and strategies to minimize pesticide use such as integrated pest management.
The history of German migration policies was a growth industry during the 1990s. The political battles of the present, such as asylum legislation, integration, and citizenship reform, created growing interest in the German historical experience of migration, migration controls and citizenship law. At the time, the only major work to tackle the subject was Klaus Bade's pioneering study of Prussian migration policies before the First World War, recently republished in an updated edition.[1] Initially, interest in German migration policies was guided largely by two leading questions. Histories of citizenship in Germany tended to adopt a long or a comparative perspective, which sought to test the hypothesis that German citizenship law and its implementation in practice reflected a particularly ethnic German conception of nationhood.[2] Histories of migration policy, by contrast, tended to focus on particular episodes in which a German tendency to view migrants primarily with regard to their usefulness, and not as potential immigrants and future citizens, clearly emerged, especially with regards to histories of the German Empire, the First World War, National Socialism, the Second World War and the post-war treatment of Gastarbeiter. The Weimar Republic, in contrast, was usually passed over in a few pages that highlighted the continuity of labor market control.[3] This state of affairs was remarkable because research on other countries highlighted the interwar period as an epoch of massive change in international migration policies. Race and ethnicity loomed larger than they had before, as indicated by the implementation of a quota system and barred zones in the United States. Moreover, with the First World War came the introduction of documentation requirements and the creation of labor-management bureaucracies that facilitated the distinction between citizens and aliens, as well as attempts to match labor supply to labor demand. Gérard Noiriel had even gone so far as to argue, largely with a view to migration and documentation policies, that the practices of Vichy had their roots in republican reforms of the late 1920s and 1930s.[4] Jochen Oltmer's magisterialHabilitationsschrift closes this gap all but completely. Based on a thorough reading of the archival record and contemporary public debate, his book shows that the transition from the politics of the First World War to the politics of National Socialism in the years of a labor shortage was more complicated previously assumed. He also highlights that migration policy was a field in which the Weimar Republic's problems emerged with particular poignancy. Oltmer's account is organized thematically rather than chronologically, though his subjects are arranged in the order in which they emerged as the main foci of internal administrative and public political debate. In the Weimar Republic's early years, these topics concerned ethnic Germans left outside the Empire's post-Versailles borders, prisoners of war and political refugees. In the later years, the position of migrant workers gained more prominence. While publicly committed to aiding fellow Germans, the republic's practice was ambivalent. The arrival of former residents of Alsace--mostly skilled workers in industries where labor was in demand, from a territory unlikely to be re-conquered soon--was welcome, but emigration of ethnic Germans from areas under Polish control was actively discouraged. The official view of these potential emigrants was less positive, their numbers were larger by several orders of magnitude and maintaining a visible German minority outside Germany's eastern borders seemed a good way to bolster the German case for a revision of the Treaty of Versailles. Migrants from Poland who could not prove they had been persecuted could therefore only expect accommodation in forbidding refugee camps in remote locations. As Oltmer's third chapter shows, this attitude also shaped the Weimar Republic's response to ethnic German emigration from Russia, which peaked during the famine years of the 1920s. Individual ethnicity was, therefore, not a dominant factor in the treatment of refugees; aliens of all ethnic backgrounds remained in a precarious position in the Weimar Republic, regardless of whether they were former prisoners of war who had opted to stay, or Jewish refugees from eastern and southeastern Europe who loomed relatively large in public debates or refugees from Soviet Russia. Ethnicity and race also loomed large in debates on the desirability of labor immigration. In general, the attitudes of state governments had more or less come full circle since the days of the empire. Whereas Prussia had been most concerned about the impact of Polish immigrants on national homogeneity before 1914, Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg proved most rigid after 1919. However, the majority of migrant workers were interested in jobs in Prussia, in the industrial areas of the Ruhr and, more prominently, in the agricultural east, which continued to rely on the access to Polish labor markets, particularly for potato planting and harvesting. In theory, the states and the empire had a powerful new tool to control labor migration: the obligatory work permit, issued only if no German applicants could be found for a job. Things were, however, not so simple in practice. Political interest in ethnic homogeneity was equal to interest in increasing the supply of food, a goal that could only be achieved, East Elbian landowners claimed, if Polish seasonal workers remained available to German employers. Immigration was, however, regarded with distaste by the völkisch right, Prussia's conservative bureaucracy and the Social Democrats, who viewed Polish laborers as an obstacle to the long-overdue modernization of rural Prussia through mechanization and unionization. The solution, fixed quotas for migrant laborers set to decline every year, proved unworkable, as rural employers turned to undocumented laborers. Moreover, the German government did its bit to undermine respect for legality in immigration matters. Seeking to reimpose a de facto policy forcing Polish migrants to return home for part of the year to prevent their settlement in Poland, German officials came into conflict with Polish determination to cut the state's ties to long-term emigrants, and were frequently forced to aid migrants in clandestinely crossing the border, before an unequal agreement could be concluded with Poland in 1927 that confirmed the status of Polish workers as second-class migrants excluded from social insurance and subject to a forced return for part of the year. Oltmer's comprehensively documented study does more than simply fill a gap in existing research. He unearths a striking pattern to Weimar policies, which could be found in many other fields of policy and may contribute to explaining why successive Weimar governments had such a difficult time in gaining the population's respect. Public pronouncements frequently contradicted secret or semi-secret policies. Official quotas for foreign workers, for example, were unofficially raised and little attempt was made to sanction employers of undocumented workers. Such actions exposed the Republic to criticism from the right and created a climate in which even more restrictive National Socialist policies could acquire broad popular support. Oltmer's book thus treats a question at the center, not the periphery, of the Weimar years.
In: Population and development review, Band 26, Heft 4, S. 821-826
ISSN: 1728-4457
It has been said that most of the founders of demography were astronomers (viz., Halley or Quetelet) or clergymen (viz., Süssmilch or Malthus). Jean‐Baptiste Moheau, the author of a treatise, published in 1778 under the title Recherches et considérations sur la population de la France, was an exception to this rule. He seems to have been an obscure bureaucrat, and left so few tracks in the record that his very existence was long in doubt. Today, however, the rough outlines of a biography have been traced. Moheau was born in 1745, and died in 1794; he was not thirty years old when he wrote the treatise. He made no other contribution to science, and appears to have been unwilling even to make simple corrections to his text when changes were requested by the 1780 German translator of the work. (There exists no translation in English.) He was the personal secretary of Montyon, the Intendant (the equivalent of a provincial governor, delegated by the central government) of the généralité of La Rochelle on the Atlantic coast of France. There is still a controversy about Montyon's possible contribution to the work, but it appears that Montyon was not interested in population, that he was not even in residence in La Rochelle, and that Moheau as his secretary was substituting for him, taking a special interest in the collection of population statistics that were requested by the royal administration.At the time of publication, the work attracted some attention, including an unfavorable critique by Condorcet, and had some admirers in Germany where it was compared to the work of Süssmilch, the great Prussian political arithmetician, whose own Göttliche Ordnung (The Divine Order, first edition published in 1741) was unknown to the author or authors of the Recherches et considérations. Moheau's work was soon forgotten, however, until a 1912 re‐edition. A modern critical edition, annotated by Eric Vilquin, which contains a biographical essay by Rene LeMée and a number of other contributions assessing the work and placing it in its historical context, was published in 1994 jointly by the Institut National d'Études Démographiques and Presses Universitaires de France. The excerpt printed below and the citations in this introduction are translations from the text as it appears in that edition. The translation is by Etienne van de Walle. Page numbers also refer to the 1994 edition. Recherches et considérations sur la population de la France, in any event, is a remarkable achievement for its time and deserves an important place in the history of demography. The title could be roughly translated, today, as "Empirical Studies on the Population of France, and Their Interpretation." Like John Graunt's 1662 Natural and Political Observations…made upon the Bills of Mortality, the work is characterized by a dual concern to present hard data and to use them to make politically and socially relevant inferences. Moheau's book consists of two very different parts, however, and lexicographical analysis suggests that they were written by two authors. The first part ("State of the Population") is a demographic monograph, and one is struck by the similarities of the chapter titles to those that one would find in any demographic description of a national population today:
– The means of investigating the population – An estimate of the population of France – Distribution by age and sex – Distribution by socioeconomic characteristics – Body size and strength – Fertility – Mortality – Migration – Is the population growing or decreasing?
The main demographic contribution of the work is in the area of fertility. Moheau lists the topics himself: A multitude of interesting questions present themselves for our investigation. What is the fertility of women in France? One in how many women gives birth per year? What is the ratio of marriages to births, and what is the highest number of children per marriage? Is fertility the same in all provinces of France, in the cities and in the countryside, and in the various parts of Europe? Is the result roughly the same every year, or every month? And finally, which of the two sexes accounts for the most births? (p. 125) This is a remarkable list of questions, and Moheau was the first to raise them so comprehensively. (It is noteworthy that there was not even a word in English, at that time, to express the concept of fertility as an aggregate characteristic of populations.) He distinguishes fertility from what we now call the birth rate, and marital fertility from overall fertility. He is interested in variability in space—national and international, and urban and rural. He analyzes the seasonality of births. He also concludes that fertility is constant over the years: "Nature has arranged the fertility of women in such a way that each year gives approximately the same number of births" (p. 134). The result of this constancy is that, in the absence of a census, the number of registered births provides the best estimate of the population size of a country. This view conflicts with the idea of fertility decline, and with potential depopulation as expressed later in the volume and in the passage below.The second part of the book examines the causes of the progress or decay of the population. This is the part described by the word "considérations" in the title of the book. The author distinguishes between physical causes (climate, food, dangerous occupations…) and political, social, or moral causes. Among the latter factors, he discusses the effects of law, government, religion, taxes, war, and the possession of colonies. The excerpt translated below is entitled "Des moeurs" (literally: "Of Mores"), by which Moheau means private morality in the areas of sexuality and reproduction; this is not unlike the meaning adopted by Malthus when he speaks of "moral restraint." The chapter deals mainly with four areas of sexual conduct: marital fidelity, prostitution, breastfeeding, and nonmarital sex (which may occasion venereal diseases). A specially noteworthy passage alludes to funestes secrets (fatal secrets), an expression widely quoted by French demographers and often interpreted as a reference to the spread of contraception in marriage. In context, however, it would appear that Moheau had in mind the growing impact of various types of extramarital behavior—fornication, prostitution, and adultery.But beyond offering a catalogue of individual behavior he considers reprehensible—a sharp—eyed critical description of some aspects of contemporary French mores—Moheau's central concern in these matters is with the consequences that affect the strength of the State. Moral failings, he argues, lead to diminished fertility and damage the overall physical quality of the population; they are pernicious in the civil and political order. He notes the high economic costs of children and implies that economic calculus alone would result in failure to reproduce: "logic and a calculating mind would not lead to the propagation of the species." Populousness of the State presupposes motivations that transcend material interest: it rests on the foundation of moral virtues.
Lo sfruttamento delle risorse naturali ha rappresentato la caratteristica principale dello sviluppo economico e del commercio per la maggior parte della storia mondiale. Attualmente, è generalmente accettato che lo sviluppo economico in tutto il mondo sia la causa dell'esaurimento irreversibile delle risorse naturali, del degrado ambientale e della conseguente minaccia per le generazioni future. Ciò costituisce le ragioni chiave e le sfide per ripensare i modelli economici. Le risorse ambientali sono considerate oggi come beni economici e vengono chiamate "capitale naturale". Questo vale in particolare per i mari e gli oceani. I mari e gli oceani coprono più del 70% della superficie terrestre e sono fondamentali per garantire alcuni dei bisogni fondamentali della società. Contengono il 97% di tutta l'acqua del pianeta e sostengono l'80% di tutte le forme di vita. Questi vasti ecosistemi sono tra i più grandi pozzi di carbonio del mondo, producono la metà dell'ossigeno che respiriamo e sono la fonte primaria di proteine per più di 3 miliardi di persone. I mari e gli oceani sono anche il tessuto di una grande industria che solleva questioni di sostenibilità ambientale e sociale. Quest'ultime sono al centro dell'agenda dello sviluppo sostenibile delle Nazioni Unite (ONU) entro il 2030 e non sono compatibili con un sistema incentrato sull'abuso e sullo sfruttamento dell'ambiente. Una gestione efficiente e sostenibile del capitale naturale degli oceani è quindi un obiettivo politico critico per il processo e il progresso economico. Di fatto, la crescente consapevolezza delle intense pressioni che impattano sul degrado ambientale marino ha portato gli organismi di governance stabiliti negli ultimi decenni a definire strumenti e meccanismi che permettano la conservazione e lo sviluppo più sostenibile del vasto capitale naturale che il mare e gli oceani offrono. Proprio in questa fase di ridimensionamento e di transizione verso una nuova economia sostenibile basata sugli ecosistemi marini, emerge il nuovo concetto della "Blue Economy" (BE). La BE ha recentemente guadagnato una notevole attenzione nelle agende politiche e accademiche, in linea con l'espansione della sua rilevanza rispetto ai settori economici tradizionali. Le strategie di implementazione della BE rientrano negli Obiettivi di Sviluppo Sostenibile (SDGs) delle Nazioni Unite, in particolare l'SDG 14 "Life Below Water". L'SDG 14 mira, tra le altre cose, alla prevenzione e ad una riduzione significativa dell'inquinamento marino, alla gestione sostenibile, nonché alla conservazione delle aree e degli ecosistemi marini e costieri, alla minimizzazione e reversione degli impatti dovuti all'acidificazione degli oceani, a far fronte alla pesca eccessiva, illegale e non regolamentata, all'aumento delle conoscenze scientifiche e al trasferimento di tecnologie marine sostenibili. Come tale, incorporato in queste ambizioni piuttosto all'avanguardia è il principio (e la necessità) che assicurare la crescita economica e l'occupazione devono andare di pari passo con l'imperativo della protezione e ripristino degli ambienti naturali e della lotta al cambiamento climatico. La BE permette di generare valore dagli oceani attraverso l'attuazione di pratiche sostenibili e nel rispetto della loro capacità di rigenerazione. Questo implica che l'impatto della produttività economica generata delle attività umane deve necessariamente garantire la salute e la salvaguardia degli oceani nel tempo. Sia i settori consolidati o tradizionali che quelli emergenti e innovativi della BE offrono importanti fonti di sviluppo economico sostenibile. I primi includono e riguardano le risorse marine viventi e non viventi, le attività portuali, la cantieristica navale, il trasporto marittimo e il turismo costiero. I secondi includono l'energia marina rinnovabile, la bioeconomia e le biotecnologie blu, i minerali marini, la desalinizzazione, la difesa, la sicurezza e la sorveglianza marittima, la ricerca e l'istruzione, le infrastrutture e la robotica marina. Questi settori rappresentano un potenziale significativo per la transizione verso una crescita economica sostenibile, e per la creazione di nuovi posti di lavoro. Ad oggi, i settori tradizionali della BE contribuiscono a circa 1,5% del PIL dell'Unione europea a 27 (UE-27) e forniscono circa 4,5 milioni di posti di lavoro diretti, cioè il 2,3% dell'occupazione totale dell'UE-27. Mentre i settori innovativi emergenti, come per esempio le fonti di energia rinnovabile derivata dall'oceano o le biotecnologie blu contribuiscono alla creazione di nuovi mercati e posti di lavoro. Ciò senza contare gli effetti indiretti e indotti sul reddito e l'occupazione. In questo contesto, la presente dissertazione ha due scopi principali. Il primo, quello di presentare lo stato dell'arte sulla BE nel mondo, mettendo in evidenza le sfide, le opportunità, le tendenze e il potenziale per uno sviluppo sostenibile. Il secondo, quello di servire come uno strumento di valutazione solido e in grado di favorire decisioni informate per definire nuove politiche e iniziative pertinenti. La ricerca si è sviluppata nell'ambito del programma di dottorato industriale Eureka, co-finanziato dalla Regione Marche insieme all'ISTAO - Istituto Adriano Olivetti, una tra le più antiche scuole manageriali d'Italia, fondata nel 1967 dall'economista Giorgio Fuà. Il capitolo I della tesi è una revisione della letteratura che colma il gap su come la BE possa rappresentare un modello di sviluppo economico per le istituzioni e le imprese. Lo fa adottando un approccio esplorativo per la raccolta e la revisione di una serie di contributi scientifici da considerare come più significativi e più rilevanti per analizzare come il concetto di BE si lega alla recente letteratura sullo sviluppo economico. Nello specifico, l'approccio esplorativo è stato progettato sulla base di una serie di criteri individuati in conformità con gli obiettivi dell'indagine: 1) inquadrare e valutare lo stato dell'arte sulle politiche e iniziative intraprese a livello globale; 2) rilevare le criticità e le sfide nell'attuazione di tali politiche e iniziative; 3) identificare le implicazioni e suggerimenti a livello di policy. Il capitolo II contribuisce alla letteratura emergente sullo sviluppo di una BE partecipativa presentando un modello innovativo a quadrupla elica. Questo modello non solo mette in collegamento i governi nazionali con il mondo accademico, le imprese e gli utenti, ma agisce anche come un driver che favorisce l'esposizione internazionale del paese in questo specifico settore. Attraverso un approccio esplorativo basato su una ricerca desk integrata da interviste semi-strutturate con otto esperti, il modello è testato a Qingdao, una città all'interno della Blue Economic Zone nella provincia dello Shandong, in Cina. Nel capitolo III, viene analizzata la risposta cinese alla "Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021-2030", il "Decennio del Mare" delle Nazioni Unite. L'analisi di documenti ufficiali di pianificazione strategica rivelano che i leader politici cinesi attribuiscono grande considerazione e importanza agli oceani per la sopravvivenza e lo sviluppo della società umana. Dal lancio del "Decennio del Mare", che rappresenta un'importante risoluzione adottata delle Nazioni Unite per promuovere lo sviluppo sostenibile degli oceani, nonché la più importante iniziativa che eserciterà un impatto di vasta portata sul progresso della scienza e della governance marina globale, varie iniziative sono state intraprese dalla Cina per sostenere il suo impegno basato sulla cooperazione per la protezione ecologica degli oceani. Il capitolo IV conduce un'investigazione sull'industria della cantieristica navale nella Regione Marche. L'importanza del settore nel tessuto industriale regionale, in particolare nella costruzione di superyacht, ha suggerito un approfondimento mirato a valutare in che modo l'industria cantieristica possa rappresentare un driver per lo sviluppo della subfornitura artigianale, altamente qualificata e tecnologicamente avanzata, che l'ecosistema industriale della regione è già in grado di fornire. Nella stesura di questo contributo, realizzato insieme ai colleghi dell'ISTAO per conto della Fondazione Marche, è stato fatto ampio ricorso ai più recenti studi sulla cantieristica navale. È stata poi realizzata un'indagine di approfondimento che ha previsto una serie di interviste semi-strutturate con i vertici dei cantieri regionali e con una campionatura di subfornitori e aziende più rappresentativi, insieme all'incontro con alcuni testimoni privilegiati del settore. ; Natural resource exploitation has been the main feature for economic development and trade for most of global history. At present, it is generally accepted that economic development around the world is leading to the irreversible depletion of natural resources, environmental degradation and consequent threat to future generations, which are key reasons and challenges for rethinking economic patterns. Environmental resources are considered today as economic assets and called "natural capital". This particularly holds true for the seas and oceans. Seas and oceans cover more than 70% of Earth's surface and are critical in ensuring that some of society's most basic needs are met. They hold 97% of all water and sustain 80% of all life forms on the planet. These vast ecosystems are amongst the world's largest carbon sinks, produce half of the oxygen we breathe and are the primary source of proteins for more than 3 billion people worldwide. Seas and oceans are also the fabric of a large industry that raises environmental and social sustainability issues. These are at the heart of the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development agenda for 2030 which is not compatible with a system focused on abuse and exploitation of the environment. Therefore, an efficient and sustainable management of oceans' natural capital is a critical policy objective for the economic process and progress. The growing awareness of the intense pressures that cause environmental degradation of the natural wealth highlights the need for a sustainable approach. Governance bodies established over the recent decades have defined tools and mechanisms to achieving a more sustainable development allowing the preservation and sustainable uses of the natural capital. At this stage of economy reframing, a new concept of "Blue Economy" (BE) has emerged to foster the shift towards a new, ocean (marine)-based sustainable economy. BE has recently gained considerable policy and scholarly attention, in line with the expansion of its relevance on the political agenda beyond traditional economic sectors. BE implementation strategies are part of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in particular SDG 14 "Life Below Water" which aims, among other things, to prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems, minimize and address the impacts of ocean acidification, regulate harvesting by ending overfishing and illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, conserve coastal and marine areas, increase scientific knowledge and transfer sustainable marine technologies. As such, embedded is this quite a cutting-edge concept is the principle (and need) that ensuring economic growth and employment must go hand in hand with the imperative of protecting and restoring nature and fighting climate change. BE enables society to obtain value from the oceans and coastal regions, whilst respecting their long-term ability to regenerate and endure such activities through the implementation of sustainable practices. This implies that human activities must be managed in a way that guarantees the health of the oceans and safeguards economic productivity, so that the potential they offer can be realized and sustained over time. Both established and emerging, innovative sectors are part of the BE and offer important sources of sustainable economic development. The former include marine living resources, marine non-living resources, marine renewable energy, port activities, shipbuilding and repair, maritime transport and coastal tourism. The latter include ocean energy (i.e. floating solar energy and offshore hydrogen generation), blue bioeconomy and biotechnology, marine minerals, desalination, maritime defence, security and surveillance, research and education and infrastructure and maritime works (submarine cables, robotics). These sectors offer significant potential for the transition to a sustainable economic growth, as well as for employment creation. For instance, BE traditional sectors contribute to about 1.5% of the European Union-27 GDP and provide about 4.5 million direct jobs, i.e. 2.3% of EU-27 total employment. Emerging innovative BE sectors, such as ocean renewable energy, blue biotechnology, and algae production are adding new markets and creating jobs. This is without counting indirect and induced income and employment effects. Against this backdrop, this dissertation has two purposes. Firstly, it provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the BE in the world, highlighting challenges, opportunities, trends, and their potential for sustainable development. Secondly, it aims to provide a stocktaking tool based on solid foundation that will enable both policy-makers and stakeholders to make informed decisions to support relevant new initiatives and policies. This dissertation has been developed within the Industrial Ph.D. program Eureka, financed by the Regional Government of the Marche along with ISTAO – The Istituto Adriano Olivetti, one of the oldest managerial schools in Italy which was founded in 1967 by the Economist Giorgio Fuà. Chapter I of the dissertation is a literature review which fills the knowledge gap on how BE can represent an economic development model for institutions and entrepreneurs. It does so by adopting an exploratory approach for the collection and review of a series of scientific contributions to be considered as most significant and most relevant in addressing how the BE discourse is tied up in recent literature on economic development. Specifically, the exploratory approach was designed based on a set of criteria identified in compliance with the objectives of the investigation: 1) frame and evaluate the state of the art with regards to policies and initiatives undertaken at global level; 2) detect critical issues and challenges in the implementation of policies and initiatives; 3) identify policy implications and suggestions. Chapter II contributes to the emerging literature on the development of a participative BE by presenting an innovative Quadruple Helix model, which not only connects domestic government, academia, firms and users but acts as a driver boosting the foreign exposure of the country in this specific domain. The model is tested in Qingdao, an exemplary city included in the Blue Economic Zone of the Shandong Province, in China, through an exploratory approach based on desk research integrated with semi-structured interviews with eight experts. In Chapter III, the Chinese response to the UN's "Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021-2030" is unfolded based on documentary analysis of official planning and strategic documents. The ocean is considered of great significance by Chinese political leaders to the survival and development of human society. Accordingly, since the launch of the "Ocean Decade", which represents an important UN resolution to promote sustainable ocean development as well as the most important initiative in the coming decade that will exert a far-reaching impact on the progress of marine science and global marine governance, various initiatives have been undertaken by China in order to uphold its cooperation-based commitment to the ecological protection of oceans. Chapter IV makes the case for the shipbuilding industry in the Marche Region, in Italy. The importance of the Marche Region in the shipbuilding industry, suggested a more in-depth exploration to understand what impact the positive performance of the sector can have on the regional industrial system and how it could represent a catalyser for the system of highly qualified and technologically advanced supply chain. In writing this contribution, which was carried out together with colleagues from ISTAO on behalf of Fondazione Marche, I had ample recourse to the latest studies on the shipbuilding industry and carried out a survey investigating the sector in depth. Semi-structured interviews with top management of the most representative regional shipyards and a sample of subcontractors and companies were conducted to witness the growth of the industry. The results of the analysis provide interesting insights for policy-making to support the development of the regional shipbuilding industry and supply chain.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are a global concern; impacts on the climate do not depend on where the CO2 is emitted. To meet this concern, a worldwide program for cutting greenhouse gases was formed in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997. The Kyoto protocol formulates the general principles for a worldwide treaty on cutting greenhouse emissions and specifies reductions for the industrialised world. The European Union has introduced an EU wide emission trading system (EUETS) that became operational in 2005 as an instrument for EU member states to meet their Kyoto obligations. Transports are not included, but may become a part of the EU-ETS in future revisions. Instead emissions from transports are regulated by other means, including fuel taxes. To further reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars and to improve fuel efficiency, the European Community has adopted a separate strategy. An important element of this strategy are the Commitments of the European, Japanese and Korean Automobile Manufacturers Associations to achieve total new passenger car fleet average CO2 emissions of 140 g CO2/km by 2008/2009. In this paper we assess the option of introducing an EU wide certificate/emission permit trading system for new passenger cars as an alternative to the commitments made by the European Automobile Manufacturers Associations. An overview of alternative trading systems is presented, possible objectives and evaluation criteria are discussed, arguments for introducing separate systems for new passenger cars are discussed, the potential for emission reduction through technological advances and changed consumer behaviour is analysed and a possible design of a system of tradable permits for new passenger cars is presented. CAP-AND TRADE OR BASELINE-CREDIT? In a cap-and-trade system a total limit (a cap) on emissions is defined. Emission permits that sum up to the limit or cap are then allocated among the agents generating the emissions. Having allocated the permits, trade is introduced. If certain conditions are achieved, trade will continue to the point where marginal abatement costs are the same across sectors and nations. Cost-effectiveness is then achieved. The EU-ETS is an example of a cap-and-trade system. A baseline-credit system is an alternative. In such a system certificates or credits are based on the achievement of improvements in relation to a baseline. Agents with emissions lower than the predefined baseline receive credits and those exceeding the baseline will have to buy credits. The baseline is typically defined in relation to a rate-based value such as CO2-emissions per kilometre or emissions per unit of output. A relative baseline system of this kind is thereby designed to control average emissions, e.g. per car and kilometre, rather than total emissions. The cap-and-trade system has the advantage by allowing a larger variety of choices for adjusting emissions. Taking road transports as an example, total emissions can be reduced not only by reducing average emissions per car and kilometre but also by reducing total car fleet mileage e.g. by giving incentives to travellers to drive less, drive shorter distances or shifting to alternative modes of transport. If the overall objective is to reduce emissions in a cost-effective manner across sectors and nations, including the transport sector in current EU-ETS would be an option to consider. The advantage of such a system is that it has the potential of providing incentives to agents to act in a way that will equalise marginal abatement costs across sectors (assuming also that current CO2-based fuel taxes/other taxes linked to CO2 emissions are adjusted accordingly), thus leading to cost-effective abatement. The baseline-credit system, on the other hand, would concentrate on reducing average emissions and consequently target the behavioural changes necessary to reduce average emissions. If, for example, the objective is to increase energy efficiency through technological improvements, a baseline-credit system may therefore be the optimal choice. Moreover, myopic behaviour in the market for new passenger cars may lead to a situation where consumers' preferences and willingness to pay for CO2-reducing technology is insufficient to cover the costs of developing the technology and put it to the market even if car manufacturers were to trade in EU-ETS and thereby receive monetary gains by developing technology that reduces fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. A system such as the baselinecredit system may therefore be necessary in order to provide sufficient incentives to manufacturers to work towards increased energy efficiency in new cars through technological improvements. The average CO2 emissions from new cars sold in the market can be reduced in two ways; either by increasing the energy efficiency in each type of car put to the market (i.e. improved technology) or by providing incentives to consumers to choose the most energy-efficient cars already in the market. Achieving objectives such as 120 g CO2/km for new car fleet most likely requires both of these. Also, in order to influence consumer behaviour it is important to make technology available to consumers at low cost. Consumers choose to pay for new technology only if the benefits of improved gas-mileage exceed the costs of higher car prices. TECHNOLOGICAL IMPROVEMENT OR CHANGED CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR? Considering technological improvements there are two ways in which to reduce specific CO2 emissions: By reducing fuel consumption in vehicles with conventional combustion engines (petrol and diesel), or by using renewable, low-CO2fuels (partly) in conjunction with new engine technologies. Fuel consumption in vehicles with conventional combustion engines can in turn be reduced in a number of ways. Technological measures can be roughly divided into four categories: Improved engine technology, downsizing and enhanced transmission technology, energy management and hybridisation, and vehicle design. The literature shows that conventional combustion engines have considerable potential for fuel-saving. In the case of petrol engines, it is thought that measures involving the drive train in a middle-size vehicle could achieve fuel savings of around 38 per cent. Further measures such as weight reduction, reduced rolling and air resistance, and promotion of fuel-efficient driving habits can result in 40 per cent or greater decrease in overall consumption. Diesel engines have lower savings potential than petrol engines because diesel engines are less wasteful than petrol engines when run at partial throttle, and significant increases in diesel motor efficiency have already been achieved. Nevertheless, hybridisation and improved transmission could result in savings of around 32 per cent. Additional savings could also be achieved with a reduction in vehicle weight, reduced rolling and air resistance, and by promoting fuel-efficient driving habits. Turning then to consumer behaviour, it is important to recognise that consumers consider a large variety of characteristics before finally choosing the car that best fits their needs and their personal preferences. From a CO2 point of view consumers should ideally be concerned about fuel efficiency more than any other characteristics. This, however, is not the case. Studies have shown that factors such as safety, prestige and powerful engines influence consumer behaviour more than does fuel efficiency, especially in times when disposable incomes increase. However, in spite of recent trends there seems to be a potential to provide incentives to consumers to shift to low-emitting cars without any large sacrifices being involved. Consider, for instance, Volvo V70, which was the most popular new car model in Sweden in 2005. The emissions from the different petrol versions range between 214 and 266 g CO2/km, whereas diesels are available with emissions ranging from 171 to 223 g CO2/km. A movement form the highest CO2/km per kilometre value to the lowest would thus imply savings of 95 grams per kilometre. To achieve these savings a consumer who currently prefers the highest emitting car has to change fuel, automatic transmission and engine power. However, brand, model or car size would not need to change. For most consumers the "adjustment cost" would thus be relatively low. The above is an extreme case scenario involving only one car model. Considering instead the whole fleet of new passenger cars, our calculations show that there is a general potential to reduce CO2 emissions from new cars by 13-30 g CO2/km within the same car model (or approximately 8-15 per cent). THE COST OF INCREASED ENERGY EFFICIENCY The main purpose of a baseline-credit system for new passenger cars would be to provide incentives for car manufacturers to develop and introduce the technology in new cars required to reach the specified CO2-objectives. However, this also means that consumers must find it worthwhile to buy a low-emitting car, i.e. the benefits of the improved technology, not the least in terms of increased gas mileage, must exceed the increase in sales price. The technological potential is large, but the benefits for consumers could be questioned since car buyers apparently do not judge energy efficiency as an important characteristic. Assuming unchanged market shares for petrol and diesel cars as well as small, medium and large sized cars, our calculations show that a reduction of the average emissions to 120 g CO2per car and kilometre in the EU would imply an increase in retail prices by 2 000 euro. There is technological potential to further reduce emissions to an average of 100 g CO2 per kilometre. However, the cost increase for this additional reduction is about 6 000 euro. THE DESIGN OF A SYSTEM FOR NEW PASSENGER CARS It is our conclusion that an emission trading system for new cars should be separated from the EU-ETS and designed as a baseline and credit system, based on emission intensity. Setting up a separate emission trading system for new cars as a baseline and credit system involves defining a baseline. It is natural to tie the baseline to the goals that are under discussion in the European Union i.e. 140 and 120 g CO2/km. Different time frames have been discussed. One possibility is to reach 140 CO2/km by 2008/2009 and 120 g CO2/km by 2012. Earlier discussions about technological development show that this time frame is feasible. Before trade can take place, demand and supply of credits need to be created. In a cap-and-trade system initial allocation of permits is a very important issue. In the baseline and credit system the allocation of credits is automatic: cars below baseline receive credits and cars above baseline need to purchase credits. In principle, this implies that no cost is imposed on the baseline car. High-emitting cars will become more expensive and low-emitting cars less expensive. The credits will work in a way similar to a system of subsidies for cars emitting below the baseline and taxes for those above. Trade with credits need to perform in a way that supports attainment of the baseline. A possible solution is that credits are traded in a market that is similar to a stock exchange. The offers of sellers and the bids of buyers will meet in a market that ideally clears each trading day. As long as markets clear, there is attainment of the baseline. To overcome imbalances, an accommodating system that handles short time excess credits or shortages will need to be worked out. There is also a need for an enforcement and compliance mechanism. Another issue to deal with is that there may be different incentives for buyers and sellers. Buyers will generally be obliged to buy credits. Sellers, on the other hand, may want to capitalise their credits later, or to bank them for coming periods. The differences in incentives can lead to shortages and an upward pressure on prices and fluctuating prices. The issue whether trade of credits should take place downstream or upstream includes several options in the production-consumption chain. The recommendation is that the retailers should be the trading entity. We also suggest gradual reductions in baseline. However, the details of a system of baseline and credits will need further analysis. Important issues in a future analysis will be designing mechanisms for compliance, monitoring and penalising. Incentive problems need also to be dealt with.
The increasing emissions from the transport sector have become a global concern as these emissions contribute to climate change. One way to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the transport sector is to replace fossil fuels with biofuels. The diesel engine is important for transports in society, especially since it is more efficient and more powerful compared with the gasoline engine. Therefore, replacing fossil diesel with biodiesel is one feasible option for achieving short and long-term emission targets. Fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) and hydrotreated vegetable oils (HVO) are the two kinds of biodiesel being used in Sweden. The raw materials are vegetable and animal oils and fats and the production method is esterification for FAME and hydrotreatment for HVO. HVO is more similar to fossil diesel and higher blends can be used in existing diesel engines if the vehicle manufacturer has approved it whereas FAME requires vehicle modifications when used in higher blends. Both HVO and FAME can be used as drop-in fuel with fossil diesel, but only up to 7% for FAME according to regulations. The Swedish consumption of HVO has increased rapidly in recent years. In 2017 it was more than 20% of the total globally produced HVO that year. Furthermore, the dependence on imported raw materials is heavy. Only 3% of the raw materials for FAME and only 5% of the raw materials for HVO sold in Sweden were of Swedish origin in 2017. Since the feedstocks used for biodiesel production are of limited availability and have competing uses, it is important to increase the knowledge of local resources. The County of Gävleborg has many large forest-related industries. The actors at different levels of the supply chain have important roles in the challenges to reduce fossil fuel dependence. The overall aim of this report is to investigate the current status and future prospects of biodiesel feedstocks and production technologies for FAME and HVO from a regional perspective. This is achieved by two separate approaches. First, a literature review is done through which potential feedstocks and production processes are described. The feedstocks are categorized into different generations. Second, ongoing and upcoming activities related to biodiesel production in Gävleborg County are explored through interviews with regional actors. The interviewees are representatives from companies with activities in Gävleborg County: Setra, BillerudKorsnäs, Iggesund, Rottneros and Colabitoil. Raw materials belonging to the first generation compete with food production. For biodiesel these raw materials are different types of vegetable oils. The main ones worldwide are palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil. These raw materials can be used as feedstock for both FAME and HVO. In Sweden the agricultural activity is relatively low and even lower in Gävleborg County. The extensive use of land and competition with food production makes these type of raw materials for biodiesel production questionable. But arguments can be made that the vegetable oils have good traceability and this can lead to better control to ensure a sustainable biodiesel value chain. Second-generation raw materials are non-food based. There are a variety of different types. Some are already being used and some are potential biodiesel feedstocks for the future. The ones presented in this report are animal fats, fish oils, waste cooking oils (WCO), pyrolysis oil, lignin and crude tall oil (CTO). Animal fats and fish oils can also be considered first-generation raw materials since they might be edible. There are strict health regulations for human food and the fats and oils that do not live up to the regulations can be used for other purposes. Animal fats and fish oils can also be used as animal feed and production of different chemicals. It is not obvious which use is best, but generally it seems that biodiesel and other energy uses are regarded as the least valuable in comparison. An important issue to consider is that the availability of animal fats and fish oils depends on the demand for meat. WCO is a feedstock for biodiesel which is currently used by Colabitoil in their pilot plant for HVO. It seems that the profitability of using WCO is dependent on the production capacity of the WCO producers and the distance between them since these two factors affect the fuel consumption during collection. It is optimal to have one big WCO producer in order to minimize the collection costs. In theory, there could be a situation in which there are so many small producers that more fuel is required for collection than is gained in biodiesel production. Pyrolysis oil from biomass is an interesting future source for biodiesel. It is a heterogeneous mixture of compounds and contains a lot of oxygen. Pyrolysis oil is definitely a raw material that needs catalytic hydrotreatment for upgrading. It is therefore considered an HVO feedstock and not feasible for FAME. This study did not clarify how much pyrolysis oil will end up as diesel fuel and how much will end up as gasoline or other products. A pyrolysis plant for production of pyrolysis oil from sawdust might be built at Setra's sawmill Kastet in Gävle. The pyrolysis oil will then be used as a feedstock for diesel and gasoline fuels in Preem's refinery. Lignin is one of the main components of wood. In the production of pulp by the sulfate process lignin is separated from the pulp as a component in the black liquor. The lignin is then primarily burned for energy purposes in the recovery boiler. The three pulp mills within Gävleborg County all use the sulfate process. At the pulp mill owned by Rottneros in Vallvik a plant for extraction of lignin and a plant for conversion into a lignin oil might be built. This pulp mill has a surplus of energy and therefore a potential to extract some of the lignin. The lignin will be processed together with a bio-based carrier oil to the lignin oil. This lignin oil will then be used as a feedstock for gasoline and diesel fuel in Preem's refinery. It was not clarified in this study what the source of the bio-based carrier oil will be. Additionally, the composition of the lignin oil was not revealed and therefore it could not be determined what share of it can be used for biodiesel production. Lignin oil is very interesting as a feedstock due to the large amount of lignin that is available in the forests. However, the interviews with the two other pulp mills (i.e., Iggesund and BillerudKorsnäs) showed that the availability is limited by other factors. These two pulp mills are integrated with production of paper products and therefore they have no surplus of energy. If lignin is extracted the energy has to be replaced by other sources. An eventual extraction of lignin is associated with reconstruction of different parts of the plant and thereby large investment costs. CTO is a by-product from pulp mills that use the sulfate process. It is of limited availability and consists mainly of fatty acids and rosin acids. The fatty acids can be converted to biodiesel. One way to utilize the components of CTO is to fractionate it into different product streams through distillation. These product streams include one stream with fatty acids, one stream with rosin acids and one stream called pitch. The pitch can be seen as a residue. There are two main refineries to which the three pulp mills in Gävleborg County deliver their CTO: Sunpine in Piteå and Kraton in Sandarne. Sunpine produces tall oil diesel and other products from the CTO, and the tall oil diesel is used for HVO production by Preem. Kraton produces different chemicals from the CTO. For all three pulp mills an important factor is to get tall oil pitch back from Sunpine and Kraton to be used for energy purposes. A potential source of lipids for biodiesel production was mentioned in the interview with Colabitoil. This was the conversion of lignocellulosic material into lipids by microbes. A particularly suitable feedstock for the microbes would be waste fibers from pulp and paper industries. This still appears to be at the research stage, but it will be interesting to follow the development since it has promising opportunities if it can be achieved at a commercial scale. Third-generation feedstocks for biodiesel are oils obtained from microalgae. Microalgae are potentially superior to the other raw materials. Biodiesel from microalgae is not commercially available so it is up to the future to determine its destiny. Due to the cold climate of Gävleborg County it is questionable if it is a good place for large-scale cultivation of microalgae. The optimal feedstock for FAME are triglycerides. Therefore, first-generation raw materials are wanted. Catalytic hydrotreatment can handle more complex raw materials and the feedstock range can thereby be increased to second-generation feedstocks. There is no producer of FAME in Gävleborg County, but there is a company (Colabitoil) that distributes HVO produced by Neste. Colabitoil also has a pilot plant for HVO production and might build a large-scale production plant in the future. The activities in Norrsundet, which Colabitoil is part of, has a potential to provide synergy effects if different companies settle there. There can then be knowledge-sharing and utilization of different by-products between the companies. There are two aspects about the limitations of the report that should be mentioned. First, the environmental performance of the different raw materials and production technologies is not considered. This is an important issue since the main purpose of biofuels is to reduce the environmental impact of fossil fuels. Second, it cannot be ruled out that there could have been intentional or unintentional bias in the interviews, even though there is no reason to suspect this. Additionally, it is very tricky to assess the certainty behind different statements from different persons since they have different backgrounds and different expectations about the future. Apart from this, the aim of the report was met to a large extent by shedding light on the future prospects of biodiesel through the challenges, uncertainties and success factors related to projects that the different actors described in the interviews. The challenges are technical and financial. The uncertainties are related to political stability but also to the environmental permit and future availability of raw materials. The success factors are the high demand for transport fuels and cooperation with other companies. ; De ökande utsläppen från transportsektorn har blivit en global angelägenhet, eftersom dessa utsläpp bidrar till klimatförändringen. Ett sätt att minska koldioxidutsläppen från transportsektorn är att ersätta fossila bränslen med biobränslen. Dieselmotorn är viktig för transporter i samhället, speciellt eftersom den är effektivare och mer kraftfull jämfört med bensinmotorn. Att ersätta fossil diesel med biodiesel är därför ett möjligt alternativ för att uppnå korta och långsiktiga utsläppsmål. Fettsyrametylestrar (FAME) och vätebehandlade vegetabiliska oljor (HVO) är de två typerna av biodiesel som används i Sverige. Råvarorna är vegetabiliska och animaliska oljor och fetter och produktionsmetoden är förestring för FAME och vätgasbehandling för HVO. Sammansättningen hos HVO är mer lik fossil diesel och högre inblandningsnivåer kan därmed användas i befintliga dieselmotorer om fordonstillverkaren har godkänt det. FAME däremot kräver modifiering hos dieselmotorsystemet vid användning i högre blandningar. Både HVO och FAME kan användas som drop-in bränsle med fossil diesel, men bara upp till 7 procent för FAME enligt föreskrifter. Den svenska konsumtionen av HVO har ökat snabbt de senaste åren. År 2017 var den över 20 procent av den totala globala produktionen det året. Det finns ett starkt beroende av importerade råvaror. Endast 3 procent av råvarorna för FAME och endast 5 procent av råvarorna för HVO som säljs i Sverige var av svenskt ursprung 2017. Eftersom råvarorna som används för biodieselproduktion har begränsad tillgänglighet och konkurrerande användningsområden är det viktigt att öka kunskapen om lokala resurser. Gävleborgs län har många stora skogsrelaterade industrier. Aktörerna på olika nivåer i försörjningskedjan har viktiga roller i utmaningen att minska beroendet av fossila bränslen. Det övergripande syftet med denna rapport är att undersöka nuvarande status och framtidsutsikterna för biodieselråvaror och produktionsteknologier för FAME och HVO ur ett regionalt perspektiv. Detta uppnås genom två separata tillvägagångssätt. För det första görs en litteraturöversikt där potentiella råvaror och produktionsprocesser beskrivs. Råvarorna kategoriseras i olika generationer. För det andra undersöks pågående och kommande aktiviteter relaterade till biodieselproduktionen i Gävleborgs län genom intervjuer med regionala aktörer. Intervjuerna är gjorda med representanter för företag med aktiviteter i Gävleborgs län: Setra, Billerud, Korsnäs, Iggesund, Rottneros och Colabitoil. Första generationens råvaror konkurrerar med livsmedelsproduktionen. För biodiesel är dessa råvaror olika typer av vegetabiliska oljor. De vanligast förekommande i världen är palmolja, sojabönsolja, rapsfröolja och solrosolja. Dessa råvaror kan användas till produktion av både FAME och HVO. I Sverige är jordbruksverksamheten relativt låg och i Gävleborgs län är den lägre än det Svenska genomsnittet. Den omfattande användningen av mark och konkurrensen med livsmedelsproduktionen gör att denna typ av råvaror för biodieselproduktion kan ifrågasättas. Men det kan argumenteras att vegetabiliska oljor har bra spårbarhet vilket kan leda till bättre kontroll för att säkerställa en hållbar biodieselvärdekedja. Andra generationens råvaror är icke-livsmedelsbaserade. Det finns en mängd olika typer. Vissa används redan och vissa är potentiella biodieselråvaror. De som presenteras i denna rapport är animaliska fetter, fiskoljor, spilloljor (WCO), pyrolysolja, lignin och råtallolja (CTO). Animaliska fetter och fiskoljor kan också betraktas som första generationens råmaterial eftersom de kan vara ätbara. Det finns höga hälsokrav för livsmedel och de fetter och oljor som inte uppfyller kraven kan användas för andra ändamål. Animaliska fetter och fiskoljor kan också användas som foder och produktion av olika kemikalier. Det är inte uppenbart vilken användning som är bäst, men i allmänhet verkar det som biodiesel och annan energianvändning anses vara den minst värdefulla. En viktig fråga att beakta är att tillgången på animaliska fetter och fiskoljor är beroende av efterfrågan på kött. WCO är ett råmaterial för biodiesel som för närvarande används av Colabitoil i deras pilotanläggning för HVO. Det verkar som om lönsamheten för att använda WCO är beroende av produktionskapaciteten hos WCO-producenterna och avståndet mellan dem, eftersom dessa två faktorer påverkar bränsleförbrukningen vid insamling. Det är optimalt att ha en stor WCO-producent för att minimera insamlingskostnaderna. Teoretiskt sett kan det uppstå en situation där producenterna är så små och så många att mer bränsle krävs för insamling än som uppnås i biodieselproduktionen. Pyrolysolja från biomassa är en intressant framtidskälla för biodiesel. Det är en heterogen blandning av föreningar och den innehåller mycket syre. Pyrolysolja är definitivt en råvara som behöver katalytisk vätgasbehandling för uppgradering. Den anses därför vara en råvara för HVO och inte för FAME. Denna studie klargör inte hur stor del av pyrolysoljan som kan omvandlas till dieselbränsle och hur mycket som kan omvandlas till bensin eller andra produkter. En pyrolysanläggning för produktion av pyrolysolja från sågspån kan komma att byggas vid Setras sågverk Kastet i Gävle. Pyrolysoljan kommer då att användas som råvara för diesel- och bensinbränsle i Preems raffinaderi. Lignin är en av huvudkomponenterna i trä. Vid framställning av massa genom sulfatprocessen separeras lignin från massan som en komponent i svartluten. Lignin bränns sedan i första hand för energianvändning i samband med återvinningen av kokningskemikalierna. De tre massafabrikerna i Gävleborgs län använder alla sulfatprocessen. Vid massabruket som ägs av Rottneros i Vallvik kan en anläggning för utvinning av lignin och en anläggning för omvandling till ligninolja komma att byggas. Denna massafabrik har ett överskott av energi och därmed en potential att extrahera en del av ligninet. Ligninet kommer att processas tillsammans med en biobaserad bärar-olja till ligninoljan. Denna ligninolja kommer då att användas vid produktion av bensin och dieselbränsle i Preems raffinaderi. Det framgår inte i denna studie vad källan till den biobaserade bäroljan kommer att vara. Dessutom avslöjas inte ligninoljans sammansättning och därför kan det inte fastställas hur stor del som kan användas för biodieselproduktion. Ligninolja är mycket intressant som råmaterial på grund av den stora mängd lignin som finns i skogen. Intervjuerna med de två andra massafabrikerna (dvs Iggesund och BillerudKorsnäs) visade emellertid att tillgängligheten är begränsad av andra faktorer. Dessa två massafabriker är integrerade med produktion av pappersprodukter och har därför inget överskott av energi. Om lignin extraheras måste energin ersättas med andra energikällor. En eventuell extraktion av lignin är förknippad med ombyggnad av olika delar av fabriken och därmed med stora investeringskostnader. CTO är en biprodukt från massafabriker som använder sulfatprocessen. Den är av begränsad tillgänglighet och består huvudsakligen av fettsyror och hartssyror. Fettsyrorna kan omvandlas till biodiesel. Ett sätt att utnyttja komponenterna i CTO är att fraktionera den till olika produktflöden genom destillation. Dessa produktflöden innefattar en ström med fettsyror, en ström med hartssyror och en ström som kallas beckolja, som kan ses som en restprodukt. Det finns två raffinaderier till vilka de tre massafabrikerna i Gävleborgs län levererar sin CTO: Sunpine i Piteå och Kraton i Sandarne. Sunpine producerar talloljediesel och andra produkter från CTO. Talloljediesel används för HVO-produktion av Preem. Kraton producerar olika kemikalier från CTO. För alla tre massabruken är det viktigt att få tillbaka beckolja från Sunpine och Kraton. En potentiell källa till lipider för biodieselproduktion nämns i intervjun med Colabitoil. Detta är omvandling av biomassa till lipider av mikrober. Ett särskilt lämpligt råmaterial för mikroberna skulle vara en typ av restprodukt från massa- och pappersindustrin som kallas fiberslam eller nollfiber. Intrycket är att detta fortfarande är i en forskningsfas, men det kommer att vara intressant att följa utvecklingen eftersom det finns lovande möjligheter om detta kan nå kommersiell skala. Tredje generationens råvaror för biodiesel är oljor erhållna från mikroalger. Mikroalger är potentiellt överlägsna de övriga råvarorna. Biodiesel från mikroalger är inte kommersiellt tillgänglig så framtiden avgör dess öde. På grund av det kalla klimatet i Gävleborgs län är det tveksamt om detta är ett bra ställe för storskalig odling av mikroalger. Den optimala råvaran för FAME är triglycerider. Därför är första generationens råvaror önskade. Katalytisk vätgasbehandling kan hantera mer komplexa råvaror och råvarubasen kan därmed ökas till andra generationens råvaror. Det finns ingen producent av FAME i Gävleborgs län, men det finns ett företag (Colabitoil) som distribuerar HVO producerat av Neste. Colabitoil har även en pilotanläggning för HVO-produktion och kan i framtiden komma att bygga en storskalig produkt-ionsanläggning. Verksamheten i Norrsundet, som Colabitoil ingår i, har potential att ge synergieffekter om olika företag etablerar sig där. Det kan då ge förutsättning för kunskapsdelning och utnyttjande av olika biprodukter mellan företagen. Det finns två aspekter kring rapportens begränsningar som bör nämnas. För det första beaktas inte miljöpåverkan från de olika råmaterialen och produktionsteknologierna. Detta är en viktig fråga eftersom biobränslenas huvudsakliga syfte är att minska miljöpåverkan jämfört med fossila bränslen. För det andra kan det inte uteslutas att intervjuerna kan vara avsiktligt eller oavsiktligt partiska, även om det inte finns anledning att misstänka detta. Dessutom är det väldigt svårt att bedöma säkerheten i uttalanden från olika personer eftersom de har olika bakgrund och olika förväntningar på framtiden. Bortsett från detta, uppnåddes i stor utsträckning målsättningen med rapporten att bedöma framtidsutsikterna för biodiesel genom belysning av utmaningar, osäkerhetsfaktorer och framgångsfaktorer relaterade till de projekt som de olika aktörerna beskrev i intervjuerna. Utmaningarna är tekniska och finansiella. Osäkerheten är relaterad till politisk stabilitet, men också till miljötillstånd och framtida råvarutillgång. Framgångsfaktorerna är den höga efterfrågan på drivmedel och samarbete mellan olika företag. ; Forskningsfinansiärer: Europeiska regionala utvecklingsfonden (ERUF), Region Gävleborg, Högskolan i Gävle
In 2012, the World Bank signed five agreements with MRDPA for advisory services, out of which one relates to the growth poles policy and to its improvement for the programming period 2014-2020. This agreement has three components: 1) an analysis of the growth poles policy, 2) energy efficiency studies for each growth pole; and 3) a review of the Integrated Development Plans prepared by the growth poles for the period 2007-2013. In this context, South Muntenia Regional Development Agency, through the coordinator of Ploiești Growth Pole, requested the World Bank, under a project funded by ERDF through the Technical Assistance Operational Program 2007-2013, to support the Growth Pole in implementing the recommendations stemming from the previous analysis with: 1) updating the Integrated Development Plan for 2014-2020; and 2) proposing an improved institutional framework for coordinating the planning, implementation and monitoring of projects under this plan. The current document of the Integrated Development Plan belonging to Ploiești Growth Pole was developed during the period 2008-2009 and approved and submitted to South Muntenia RDA in April 2010. It contains a total number of 93 projects with a total value of RON 5,136,143,583.91, out of which 762,515,322.81 are EU funds, and the remainder comes from the national budget and the beneficiaries' own contribution. In the process of updating the plan, the implementation status of these projects will be studied further, while attention will be also given to the unimplemented projects in order to see whether they will be included in the documentation, depending on their response to the new development conditions of the growth pole.