Suchergebnisse

The bivariate Poisson conditionals distribution is characterized by the form of one of the conditional distributions and one of the conditional expectations.

Both unconditional mixed-normal distributions and GARCH models with fat-tailed conditional distributions have been employed for modeling financial return data. We consider a mixed-normal distribution coupled with a GARCH-type structure which allows for conditional variance in each of the components as well as dynamic feedback between the components. Special cases and relationships with previously proposed specifications are discussed and stationarity conditions are derived. An empirical application to NASDAQ-index data indicates the appropriateness of the model class and illustrates that the approach can generate a plausible disaggregation of the conditional variance process, in which the components' volatility dynamics have a clearly distinct behavior that is, for example, compatible with the well-known leverage effect.

With the aim of mitigating the possible problem of negativity in the estimation of the conditional density function, we introduce a so‐called re‐weighted Nadaraya‐Watson (RNW) estimator. The proposed RNW estimator is constructed by a slight modification of the well‐known Nadaraya‐Watson smoother. With a detailed asymptotic analysis, we demonstrate that the RNW smoother preserves the superior large‐sample bias property of the local linear smoother of the conditional density recently proposed in the literature. As a matter of independent statistical interest, the limit distribution of the RNW estimator is also derived.

This article enquires whether modern practices of punishment are undergoing a transformation by investigating the effect that the development of citizenship has had upon modern punishment. Citizenship requires that people expand their horizons of recognition and treat people, who had previously been disregarded, as equals. This is one of the primary cultural influences upon punishment and explains why modern punishment has always partly been an inclusionary project. The effect of citizenship is ambivalent as punishment is designed not only to incorporate offenders but also to underline their `conditional' status as citizens, hence the persistence of brutal treatment. This article traces the influence of citizenship, through the emergence of civil, political and social rights, upon punishment from the late 18th century to the present day. It argues that the `inclusionary' aspect of punishment is waning as the conditions of citizenship are becoming ever more stringent.