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Achieving peace & building the institutions that will make it last require much time & effort on the part of adversaries. While making this effort, the likelihood of peace is uncertain, & preparations for conflict are ongoing. Using a model that takes such considerations into account, adversaries divide their resources between "guns," "butter," & investments in conflict management. Even when all adversaries undertake sizable investments in conflict management, peace is uncertain. Results show that larger initial wealth increases the likelihood of peace, whereas the number of adversaries can have widely different effects. A larger number of adversaries in cases of international conflict tends to increase the likelihood of peace but has the opposite effect in cases of domestic conflict. 2 Figures, 14 References. [Copyright 2002 Sage Publications, Inc.]

IN EXAMINING CONSTRUCTIVE RESPONSES TO THE PROBLEMS CAUSED BY VIOLENT ETHNIC CONFLICT A DISTINCTION IS OFTEN MADE BETWEEN THE 'MANAGEMENT' AND 'RESOLUTION' APPROACHES. INDEED, THEY ARE OFTEN DEFINED SO AS TO MAKE THEM INCOMPATIBLE WITH EACH OTHER. THE BASIC ASSUMPTIONS UPON WHICH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE TWO APPROACHES ARE BASED ARE ANALYSED, AND THE WEAKNESSES OF EACH ARE EXPLORED. FINALLY, THE ASSUMPTION OF BASIC INCOMPATIBILITY IS QUESTIONED, BECAUSE IT IS GENERALLY UNHELPFUL IN PROMOTING CONFLICT RESOLUTION; AND AN ATTEMPT IS MADE TO SHOW HOW THE TWO APPROACHES CAN BE COMBINED BY INTRODUCING THE CONCEPT OF PEACE-KEEPING (MANAGEMENT) AND PEACE-MAKING AND PEACE-BUILDING (RESOLUTION).

Strategies of reassurance (S. der erneuten Versicherung oder Bestätigung) gehen von anderen Annahmen aus als die der Abschreckung. Sie setzen zwar ebenso Feindseligkeit als gegeben voraus, aber im Unterschied zur Abschreckung sehen sie die Wurzeln der Feindseligkeit nicht im Streben des Gegners nach einer günstigen Gelegenheit zum Angriff, sondern in seinen Nöten und Schwächen. Sie versuchen nicht, einer Fehleinschätzung durch verbale reassurance vorzubeugen, sondern bieten eine Palette von Reaktionsmöglichkeiten, auf die der Gegner zurückgreifen kann, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit der Androhung oder des Gebrauchs von Gewalt zu verringern. Vier strategies of reassurance - the exercise of restraint, the creation of norms of competition, the making of evocable commitments, regime building - werden an Hand von konkreten Beispielen vorgestellt. (SWP-Hck)

THE END OF COLONIALISM AND THE DECLINE OF COLD WAR BIPOLARITY MEAN THAT THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION MUST FIND NEW WAYS OF RELATING TO A THIRD WORLD THAT IS GROWING INCREASINGLY INFLUENTIAL AND IS SEEKING WAYS TO BE THE MASTER OF ITS OWN DESTINY. THERE HAS BEEN A MARKED GROWTH IN REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS WITHIN THE THIRD WORLD DESIGNED TO DEAL WITH THE RELATED PROBLEMS OF SOLVING INTERNAL DISPUTES AND REDUCING THE ROLE OF OUTSIDE POWERS IN REGIONAL AFFAIRS. THESE ORGANIZATIONS HAVE MIXED RECORDS, AND SOME COULD POSE THREATS TO BROADER GLOBAL INTERESTS, INCLUDING THOSE OF THE USA AND THE USSR. NONETHELESS, THE TREND TOWARD REGIONALIZATION IS PERVASIVE, AND IN MANY CASES REGIONAL GROUPINGS CAN DEAL WITH PROBLEMS THAT THE SUPERPOWERS NO LONGER CAN OR WANT TO HANDLE. MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON MUST JUDGE EACH CASE ON ITS OWN MERITS, BUT THEIR GENERAL APPROACH SHOULD BE TO LET REGIONAL GROUPINGS CARRY AS MUCH OF THE BURDEN AS POSSIBLE.