Suchergebnisse

ÖZET Çok değişkenli ve karmaşık Kıbrıs sorunu bir den çok tarafı ilgilendirmekte ve kırk yılı aşkın süredir uluslararsı gündemi meşgul etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Kıbrıs sorunundaki kritik gelişmelere genel bir bakışla özetlerken, özellikle 1950'li yıllardan bu yana süre gelen çözüm girişimlerinin üzerinde durulmuştur. Adadaki ihtilafa ilişkin unsurların incelenmesinde Avrupa Birliğinin rolü ve etkilerinin altı çizilmiştir. Süregelen çözüm girişimleri inceledikten sonra ihtilaf çözünürlüğü teorileri çerçevesinde Kıbrıs meselesi genel olarak analiz edilecektir; spesifik olarak bu meselenin neden bunca yıl, ve özellikle son on senede, çözülemediği araştırılacaktır. Özellikle son dönemde çözümsüzlükte pay sahibi faktörler işaret edilip çözüme giden yola ışık tutacak önerilerde bulunulmaya çalışılacaktır. ABSTRACT The multi-faceted and complex Cyprus conflict has significant implications for a number of parties and has been on the international agenda for over four decades. The following study involves an overview of the critical junctures of the Cyprus conflict, incorporating significant resolution-seeking efforts since the 1950s. We shall explore the issues associated with the conflict and the continuous efforts to unite the peoples of the island, with a special emphasis on the prospect of a united Cyprus joining the European Union. Upon assessing the conflict and numerous negotiation and mediation efforts, an analysis will follow, which will be structured around theories of conflict resolution so as to shed light on the reasons of the protracted nature of the conflict, to investigate where and how conflict resolution techniques have fallen short so-far, and finally to provide insight on appropriate and effective ways to resolve this case. In this chronological assessment, we shall show how the Cyprus conflict grew into a protracted and intractable conflict.

This research advances the hypothesis and establishes empirically that interpersonal population diversity, rather than fractionalization or polarization across ethnic groups, has been pivotal to the emergence, prevalence, recurrence, and severity of intrasocietal conflicts. Exploiting an exogenous source of variations in population diversity across nations and ethnic groups, as determined predominantly during the exodus of humans from Africa tens of thousands of years ago, the study demonstrates that population diversity, and its impact on the degree of diversity within ethnic groups, has contributed significantly to the risk and intensity of historical and contemporary civil conflicts. The findings arguably reflect the contribution of population diversity to the non-cohesivnesss of society, as reflected partly in the prevalence of mistrust, the divergence in preferences for public goods and redistributive policies, and the degree of fractionalization and polarization across ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups.

The notion of a European heritage has become one of the main pillars of the EU's cultural policy. However, instead of the political wish for a European shared patrimony, Europe faces a highly conflicted past, which has become for many Europeans a contested heritage with strong repercussions for the backward-looking notion of European culture. For, there is no heritage without culture and no culture without conflict. One's heritage also defines one's identity, and the willingness of Europeans, and "Western" tourists more in general, to identify with deplorable and painful pasts makes Holocaust heritage tourism into a kind of healing experience. More than being a matter of shared values, the conservation of such painful pasts deals with their present uses. In other words, the meaning of heritage is produced by politics of memory and identity as much as by the performative experience of heritage tourists and other stakeholders with often conflicted interests and competing memories. This has resulted in many parts of Europe (and beyond) in what I would call urban "Holoscapes", where visitors now walk in the footsteps of victims in a virtually re-enacted site without Jews. Keywords: conflict, heritage, tourism, Holoscapes, Europe

FY 2013-2014. Project Lead: Richard Weitz ; Excluding the United States, Russia and China are the two most powerful militaries in the world. China is undertaking a comprehensive military modernization program and Russia still has approximately the same nuclear weapons capacity as the United States. While bilateral relations between Russia and China are strong in many areas, trilateral cooperation is inadequate in strategic nuclear arms control, operational arms control, and averting regional nuclear weapons proliferation. The Hudson Institute will focus on strategic offensive forces (intercontinental and short range), strategic defense (national and regional), and strategic stability issues that can contribute to further nuclear proliferation. Increased understanding of the trilateral relationship between the world_s three most important nuclear powers will shed key insight on the countries_ strategic positions. ; Defense Threat Reduction Agency ; NA ; Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This research advances the hypothesis and establishes empirically that interpersonal population diversity has contributed significantly to the emergence, prevalence, recurrence, and severity of intrasocietal conflicts. Exploiting an exogenous source of variations in population diversity across nations and ethnic groups, it demonstrates that population diversity, as determined predominantly during the exodus of humans from Africa tens of thousands of years ago, has contributed significantly to the risk and intensity of historical and contemporary internal conflicts, accounting for the confounding effects of geographical, institutional, and cultural characteristics, as well as for the level of economic development. These findings arguably reflect the adverse effect of population diversity on interpersonal trust, its contribution to divergence in preferences for public goods and redistributive policies, and its impact on the degree of fractionalization and polarization across ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups.

This research advances the hypothesis and establishes empirically that interpersonal population diversity has contributed significantly to the emergence, prevalence, recurrence, and severity of intrasocietal conflicts. Exploiting an exogenous source of variations in population diversity across nations and ethnic groups, it demonstrates that population diversity, as determined predominantly during the exodus of humans from Africa tens of thousands of years ago, has contributed significantly to the risk and intensity of historical and contemporary internal conflicts, accounting for the confounding effects of geographical, institutional, and cultural characteristics, as well as for the level of economic development. These findings arguably reflect the adverse effect of population diversity on interpersonal trust, its contribution to divergence in preferences for public goods and redistributive policies, and its impact on the degree of fractionalization and polarization across ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups.

It is widely assumed that scientists should be objective and ignore personal factors in their scientific conduct (Douglas 2014). However, scientists are human beings and are therefore also driven by interests other than the advancement of scientific knowledge – for instance, by the pursuit of honour and status, wealth, the desire to support their students, political commitments, morality and other factors. Sometimes scientists' non-scientific interests seem to be in conflict with responsible conduct of research, and when this is the case there is a conflict of interest. However, some conflicts of interest are unavoidable and some are even harmless; conflicts of interest do not necessarily lead to questionable research practice and are sometimes an intrinsic part of research itself. But some, particularly those involving financial interests, are a serious threat to the responsible conduct of research and should therefore be taken very seriously. In this chapter we discuss what exactly a conflict of interest is, and why, when and how we, as scientists, should actively respond to our conflicts of interest by, for example, disclosing them.

FY 2013-2014. Project Lead: Anne Clunan & Kirsten Rodine Hardy ; While those in the nanotechnology field emphasize the benefits for medicine, travel, and manufacturing, it is a dual-use technology that could lead to a disruptive and expensive arms race for technology dominance. Nanotechnology has significant implications for globalization, technological governance, and national sovereignty. Through a cross-national and strategic lens, the project will analyze the potential threats to national security and competitiveness arising from nanotechnology and its governance. The project will also explore the threats and opportunities for U.S. national security and economic prosperity from commercial and military nanotechnologies, divergent nanotech developmental strategies, and emerging governance structures in critical countries. ; Defense Threat Reduction Agency ; NA ; Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The consequences of successful public health interventions for social violence and conflict are largely unknown. This paper closes this gap by evaluating the effect of a major health intervention – the successful expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to combat the HIV/AIDS pandemic – in Africa. To identify the effect, we combine exogenous variation in the scope for treatment and global variation in drug prices. We find that the ART expansion significantly reduced the number of violent events in African countries and sub-national regions. The effect pertains to social violence and unrest, not civil war. The evidence also shows that the effect is not explained by general improvements in economic prosperity, but related to health improvements, greater approval of government policy, and increased trust in political institutions. Results of a counterfactual simulation reveal the largest potential gains in countries with intermediate HIV prevalence where disease control has been given relatively low priority.

Post-conflict societies face two distinctive challenges: economic recovery and risk reduction. Aid and policy reforms have been found to be highly effective in the economic recovery. In this paper we concentrate on the other challenge, risk reduction. The post-conflict peace is typically fragile: around half of all civil wars are due to post-conflict relapses. Both external actors and the post-conflict government must therefore give priority to reducing the risk of conflict. Our statistical results suggest that economic development does substantially reduce risks, but it takes a long time. We also find evidence that UN peacekeeping expenditures significantly reduce the risk of renewed war. The effect is large: doubling expenditure reduces the risk from 40% to 31%. In contrast to these results we cannot find any systematic influence of elections on the reduction of war risk. Therefore, post-conflict elections should be promoted as intrinsically desirable rather than as mechanisms for increasing the durability of the post-conflict peace. Based on these results we suggest that peace appears to depend upon an external military presence sustaining a gradual economic recovery, with political design playing a somewhat subsidiary role. Since there is a simple and statistically strong relationship between the severity of post-conflict risks and the level of income at the end of the conflict this provides a clear and uncontroversial principle for resource allocation: resources per capita should be approximately inversely proportional to the level of income in the post-conflict country.

Violence and war were ubiquitous features of politics long before the emergence of the modern state system. Since the late 18th century major revolutions across the world have further challenged the idea of the state as a final arbiter of international order. This book discusses ten major thinkers who have questioned and re-shaped how we think about politics, violence and relations between states – Thucydides, Augustine, Machiavelli, Hobbes, Locke, Rousseau, Clausewitz, Lenin and Mao, and Schmitt. Conflict, war and revolution have generally been seen in political thought as problems to be managed by stable domestic political communities. In different ways, all the paradigmatic thinkers here acknowledge them instead as inevitable dimensions of human experience, manifested through different ways of acting politically – while yet offering radically distinct answers about how they can be handled. This book dramatically broadens the canon of political thought by considering perspectives on the international system that challenge its historical inevitability and triumph. Drawing on history, theology, and law as well as philosophy, Paul Kelly introduces thinkers who challenge fundamentally the ways in which we should think about the nature and scope of political institutions and agents. He illuminates many troubling contemporary conflicts with a critical and historical perspective. This book is primarily intended for second year and upwards undergraduate students in general political theory and international theory, and advanced international relations students. Each chapter is also downloadable on its own for use in courses considering only some of the ten theorists covered. Written in an accessible way Conflict, War and Revolution will also interest advanced general readers with interests in the historical thought underpinnings of political ideas and today's international politics. Detailed reading advice is provided, and advice on how to access open access versions of the key thinkers writing.

Performer: Monterey Institute of International Studies Principal Investigator: Nikolai Sokov, FY: 2014-2015 ; Russia has been trying to develop a modern conventional strike capability for more than ten years. Although reaching this goal is still years ahead, the gap appears to be narrowing. Moscow's plans for an even more ambitious project, a prompt global strike capability, are probably only two or three years behind American efforts. Moscow's new ability to support a more ambitious foreign policy will inevitably affect Washington's calculations. This project will review the R&D and acquisition programs in these areas together with Russian military doctrine, Russian nuclear strategy, Russia's relations with other nations, missile defense capabilities, and arms control agreements.

Borders are political constructs, not constructs derived from laws of nature. Borders carry more potential for conflict than any other matter in political relations. In international relations, wars have been fought over borders and territory. But, territory does not necessarily entail a dispute about the geographic location of a border. Trans-boundary natural resources disputes emerge because the laws of nature do not bend to this peculiar human construct. As much can be seen in international and intra-state water conflicts, where political boundaries provide individuals with a tribal identity that eclipses the power of natural resources to tie people together in basins. Nevertheless, despite the tribal power of these divisive disputes, cooperative approaches emerge. Water users from competing political jurisdictions – within and between states – greatly benefit from cooperative water policies and practices based on philia, brotherly love. But the conditions under which such mutual concern emerges are not universal. Law can bring them to bear, and it should. Once it does so, the philia-driven commitments are often drawn up in compacts or agreements that will bind the parties in a long-term relationship that is more or less reflective of their original philia. In this paper we analyze water disputes between Kansas-Nebraska, Texas-New Mexico, and Egypt-Ethiopia-Sudan, and evaluate how cooperative models, consistent with philia, are employed to mitigate water fights.

The Assam conflict which culminated in large-scale massacres and in a civil war-like situation in the course of the State Assembly Election in Febmary 1983, has to be seen as a multi-causal crisis. In this article three important aspects are analysed. Part I concentrates on the political character of the anti-foreigners agitation. Rise, momentum and issues of the agitation movement are outlined. The main demands of the agitation leaders are confronted with the argumentation put forward by the Central Government. In view of the increasing polarisation and fragmentation of Assamese society emphasis is placed on the question which communal groups and organisations supported the agitation movement. Part II deals with the ethnic component of the long-standing conflict in Assam. The movement gained its main momentum from the controversy "How to identify the foreigners" and "How to determine their magnitude". A thorough investigation soon reveals the highly political nature of this identification and quantification problem. Finally, a district-wise analysis of the population growth and the ethnic distribution not only demonstrates the extremely composite structure of Assamese society but also proves the rather different impact of the population rise and migration on the eight districts concerned.

This project evaluates a conundrum facing those making and implementing foreign policies in the U.S. government and elsewhere, whether, in devising policies to address complex security crises, to focus on comprehensive programs that influence the fundamental drivers of conflict (root causes) or to pursue a more limited strategy that seeks to respond to the symptoms of violence. It explicitly focuses on the twin issues of when and why the policy community may take one approach over the other, and what tradeoffs the chosen strategy then creates. The project explores these issues by analyzing the dynamics in a particular subset of policies: mediation strategies employed by third party interveners in violent civil conflict. The project assesses the choices and consequences of different strategies for conflict mediation as a microcosm for debates over whether those responding to conflict should focus their efforts on addressing the fundamental drivers of conflict or the symptoms of conflict once it occurs. ; Defense Threat Reduction Agency Advanced Systems and Concepts Office Contract Number MIPR 09-2516M