Suchergebnisse

This report reviews the status of Maghreb countries' economic integration with the world, with the Arab world, and within the Maghreb itself. It focuses on trade in goods and services, labor and capital flows, financial integration and cross-border infrastructure integration. It discusses the potential benefits of and key constraints to greater integration. The focus on trade liberalization with the European Union (EU) provides an opportunity for individual Maghreb countries to lock in policies that would eventually help them harmonize policies within their own region. The same argument can be made regarding accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The Maghreb countries would reap significant additional benefits if, in parallel to reforms undertaken to improve trade liberalization with Europe, they improved conditions for streamlined trade among themselves. There is significant potential for trade in services in the financial sector, transportation and logistics, and communications and information, among other sectors. According to some studies, comprehensive services reforms that involve increased competition and regulatory streamlining would yield benefits that are at least twice the magnitude of those achieved through tariff removal alone.

This study outlines the initial challenge presented by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, describes Djibouti's response, reviews the results achieved and the enabling factors in curbing the spread of the epidemic, and identifies remaining challenges. Between 2002 and 2008, HIV prevalence among young pregnant women aged 15-24 was reduced from 2.7 percent to 1.9 percent and among sentinel surveillance groups from 2.5 percent to 1.9 percent. HIV prevalence among tuberculosis patients was reduced from an estimated 22 percent to 12 percent. Condom use during last intercourse outside marriage increased from 27 percent to 55 percent and reached 95 percent among sex workers. Among the general population, awareness of HIV/AIDS increased to 95 percent and knowledge about transmission and prevention rose to 50 percent. Political commitment, engagement of community and religious leaders, rigorous communication, social marketing and the provision of an integrated package of medical and social services, and donor harmonization were among the key factors that contributed to the achievement of these results. Despite these impressive results in a relatively short period, Djibouti still has to address several challenges and consolidate program gains, but most importantly, funds are being mobilized from government resources to sustain the national AIDS control program.

This assessment covers the transparency of monetary policy in the Republic of Indonesia, and in particular, BI's role in the formulation and implementation of this policy. It forms part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) for Indonesia, which was conducted jointly by the IMF and the World Bank during 2009-2010. The assessment was primarily undertaken during the first FSAP mission in October 2009 with subsequent refinements through written communications with the authorities. The assessment was conducted according to the IMF's code of good practices on transparency in monetary and financial policies, as issued in September 1999, and supporting documents as approved in July 2000. The assessment is primarily based on information available as of October 2009, in particular on the relevant laws and regulations then in force. After receiving a draft version of this assessment, Bank Indonesia (BI) took a number of steps to enhance transparency, and the ratings in some practices have been marked up accordingly. The review also incorporates a wide range of other materials published by the Indonesian authorities, including those on their website and draws extensively on a self-assessment and a response to a questionnaire. In addition, the assessment was informed by discussions held during the FSAP mission with the authorities at a senior level and with various departments and divisions of BI, as well as with representatives of the private financial sector.

Backed by sound economic policies and until the global crisis, a buoyant global economy, many developing countries made significant movement toward achieving the 2015millennium Development Goals (MDGs), particularly those for poverty reduction, gender parity in education, and reliable access to safe water. But even before the global economic crisis, progress in achieving some MDGs, especially those on child and maternal mortality, primary school completion, hunger, and sanitation, was lagging. The global food, fuel and economic crises have set back progress to the MDGs. An estimated 64 million more people are living on less than $1.25/day than there would have been without the crisis. The challenges ahead are achieving the MDGs requires a vibrant global economy, powered by strong, sustainable, multi-polar growth, underpinned by sound policies and reform at the country level; improving access for the poor to health, education, affordable food, trade, finance, and basic infrastructure is key to accelerating progress to the MDGs; developing countries need to continue to strengthen resilience to global volatility in order to protect gains and sustain progress toward the MDGs; the international community must renew its commitment to reach the 'bottom billion', particularly those in fragile and conflict-affected countries; and global support for a comprehensive development agenda including through the G20 process is critical. In the wake of recent global crises, and with the 2015 deadline approaching, business as usual is not enough to meet the MDGs.

Growth has slowed down since the second quarter, but exceeded expectations. Considering the 1) political turmoil; 2) robust growth during the rebound; and 3) slowdown in advanced economies, the Thai economy was expected to contract by more than it did in the second and third quarters. The output of the manufacturing sector expanded in the second quarter, led by still-growing exports and robust private consumption. Demand indeed appears to have been higher than production, as some orders had to be filled by drawing down on inventories. However, a sharp contraction in tourism led Gross Domestic product (GDP) overall to contract in the quarter. The FY10 fiscal deficit was much smaller than initially feared when the budget was proposed. The budget for FY10 was prepared at the trough of the global financial crisis in February 2009 and anticipated only 1.35 trillion baht in revenues. Inflation levels have been low and stable but persistent increases in food prices could pose risks. Overall, slower growth in advanced economies will translate into lower GDP growth Thailand for the next two to three years. Notwithstanding a deceleration in the second half because of the waning global inventory cycle, year-on-year growth in 2010 is expected at 7.5 percent due to the low base of 2009 and the strong first half. Quarter-to-quarter growth will pick up modestly in 2011 to average over 4 percent, but the relatively high base in 2010 results in a year-on-year growth rate of 3.2 percent for 2011.

The Thai economy runs on a single engine: external demand. The economic roller coaster since the onset of the global financial crisis can be overwhelmingly attributed to fluctuations in the output of three sectors most sensitive to external demand: manufacturing, logistics (transportation and storage), and tourism (hotels and restaurants). As global trade contracted between the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, Thailand's real gross domestic product (GDP) fell 6.3 percent, before rebounding 6.9 percent through the end of 2009 on a revival in actual and expected external demand. At the end of 2009, real GDP was back to pre-crisis levels, as measured in seasonally adjusted terms. For 2009 as a whole, however, real GDP fell 2.2 percent. The dominance of sectors linked to external demand over Thailand's growth dynamics is not new. Both sets of sectors grew at about the same pace prior to the 1997 financial crisis. However, a structural break took place in the aftermath of the crisis, when sectors linked to external demand grew an average of 6.1 percent between 2001 and 2007 compared to a 4.3 percent growth rate of other sectors. While the sectors linked to external demand are expected to grow below the historical average in the near term due to lower growth in demand from advanced economies, a reversal of the structural change observed since 1998 is unlikely. This will require an acceleration of the growth of the sectors linked to domestic demand. But the constraints that limited the growth of these sectors in the past not only remain but have been compounded in the near term by the escalation of the political conflict. This will ensure that growth rates in sectors linked to domestic demand will also remain below their (already low) historical averages and the dominance of external demand on the economy will continue to increase.

Since the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak, health care in China has become a leading national concern. Often highlighted by the popular phrase, kan-bing-nan, kan-bing-gui (seeking care is difficult and expensive), healthcare costs can be devastating. Prior to 2007, there were two formal insurance programs: the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) for the urban employed population, and the New Rural Cooperative Medical Insurance (NRCMI) for rural residents. A third major group-urban resident without formal employment-was essentially left out of the state health security system. In July 2007, the State Council initiated a pilot experiment in 79 cities-the Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance (URBMI). The plan targeted urban residents without formal employment, especially the elderly and children (State Council 2007). The present health policy note provides an updated review of healthcare settings and policy reforms, focusing primarily on urban health financing. It discusses urban insurance in the context of universal coverage and how to harmonize insurance schemes across urban and rural areas. This discussion is placed in the context of global experience and emerging principles of best practices.

China's remarkable economic performance over the last 30 years resulted from reforms that met the specific conditions of China at any point in time. Starting with a heavily distorted and extremely poor economy, China gradually reformed by improving incentives in agriculture, phasing out the planned economy and allowing non-state enterprise entry, opening up to the outside world, reforming state enterprises and the financial sector, and ultimately by starting to establish the modern tools of macroeconomic management. The way China went about its reforms was marked by gradualism, experimentation, and decentralization, which allowed the most appropriate institutions to emerge that delivered high growth that by and large benefited all. Strong incentives for local governments to deliver growth, competition among jurisdictions, and strong control of corruption limited rent seeking in the semi reformed system, whereas investment in human capital and the organizations that were to design reforms continued to provide impetus for the reform process. Learning from other countries' experience was important, but more important was China's adaptation of that experience to its own particular circumstances and needs.

The Country Environmental Analysis (CEA) for Timor-Leste identifies environmental priorities through a systematic review of environmental issues in natural resources management and environmental health in the context of the country's economic development and environmental institutions. Lack of data has been the main limitation in presenting a more rigorous analysis. Nevertheless, the report builds on the best available secondary data, presents new data on the country's wealth composition, and derives new results on the costs of water and air pollution. The CEA calls for urgent attention to gaps in the environmental management framework, the lack of capacity to implement the few regulations in place, and the high cost of indoor air pollution and poor water, sanitation, and hygiene. Timor-Leste is a young country that regained independence in 2002, and it has emerged from a bitter past burdened by colonialism and violent conflicts. It is still a fragile state facing enormous challenges. The report also points out the lack of clean water, appropriate sanitation, and hygiene as an environmental priority. The CEA estimates that this imposes an economic cost of about $17 million per year by way of illness and premature death. The CEA also looks at outdoor air pollution and at natural resource management for land, forestry, and coastal and marine resources. Outdoor air pollution is not a serious problem for the time being, but it could become so in the long run if the economy grows rapidly, urbanization continues, heavy industry emerges, and motorization increases rapidly. This underlines the need for good forward territorial and development planning. In conclusion, much good work has already been done to enhance the quality of the environment in Timor-Leste. Efforts are under way to improve the data base for environmental management.

A solid financial armor could not protect Thailand against the impact of the global financial crisis on its real economy. Despite a sound banking system and low external vulnerabilities, the Thai economy contracted 5.7 percent between October 2008 and March 2009, as the magnitude and speed of the contraction in foreign demand, and resulting shock to the real economy, has been greater than anticipated. There continues to be little impact of the global financial crisis on Thailand's banks: liquidity remained adequate as financial institutions did not face solvency concerns given their adequate capitalization and lack of exposure to 'toxic' assets or risky derivative contracts. The combination of a sound financial sector, low external roll-over and balance-of-payment financing requirements, and, more recently, large current account surpluses, has led to capital inflows, build-up in reserves and an appreciation of the Baht relative to other currencies in the region. However, the impact of the global crisis on the real sector was far more severe than expected. Export volumes contracted by 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared to the World Bank's forecast in December of a 3.0 percent expansion. Exports contracted a further 16 percent in the first quarter of 2009. The aggravation of Thailand's political crisis, which had been dampening investor and consumer confidence since 2006, compounded the shock to the real economy. As a result, real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009 after 38 quarters of growth, and is expected to contract for 2009 as a whole, the first annual contraction since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998.

Securities settlement systems should have a well-founded, clear and transparent legal basis in the relevant jurisdiction. The laws, regulations, rules and procedures governing the operations and activities of Thailand Securities Depositories (TSD) are public and accessible to participants. In particular, participants receive comprehensive documentation covering the rules, requirements, procedures and instructions of TSD. This documentation is available on request and is accessible on the TSD website. The public authorities' regulations are also available to the general public on the websites of the Ministry of Commerce (MoC), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Bank of Thailand (BOT). It is recommended to implement adequate legal measures that ensure the netting arrangement is legally protected even in the event of the insolvency of a participant.

This paper outlines the methodological issues associated with the task of measuring that actual delivered direct protection or taxation to individual agricultural industries, as well as the direct protection or anti-protection to non-agricultural sectors. It begins with a guide to what elements in principle could be measured. There are two key purposes of the distortion estimates being generated by this project are: 1) to provide a long annual time series of indicators showing the extent to which price incentives faced by farmers and food consumers have been distorted directly and indirectly by own-government policies in all major developing, transition and high-income countries, and hence for the world as a whole; and 2) to attribute the price distortion estimates for each farm product to specific border or domestic policy measures, so they can serve as inputs into various types of partial and general equilibrium economic models for estimating the effects of those various policies on such things as national and international agricultural markets, farm value added, income inequality, poverty, and national, regional and global welfare.

This review of public expenditures on Social Protection (SP) in Nicaragua is based on the analytical framework of Social Risk Management (SRM) developed by the World Bank. The concept of managing social risk comes from the notion that certain groups in society are vulnerable to unexpected shocks which threaten their livelihood and/or survival. Social protection focuses on the poor since they are more vulnerable to the risks and normally do not have the instruments to handle these risks. This prevents the poor from taking more risky activities that usually yield higher returns and that could help them overcome gradually their poverty situation. Social risk management involves policies and programs aimed at reducing key risks, breaking inter-generational cycle of poverty and vulnerability. Risk management consists in the choice of appropriate risk prevention, mitigation and coping strategies to minimize the adverse impact of social risks. Social protection under SRM is defined as public interventions to assist individuals, households and communities to better manage risk and provide support to the critically poor. Thus Social protection should provide: a safety net, particularly for the poor that are likely to fall in the cracks of established programs; and a springboard for the poor to bounce out of poverty.

Mounting evidence suggests that excessive job protection reduces employment and labor market flows, hinders technological innovations, pushes workers into the informal sector, and hurts vulnerable groups by depriving them of job opportunities. Flexible labor markets stimulate job creation, investment, and growth, but they create job insecurity and displace some workers. How can the costs of such insecurity and displacements be minimized while ensuring that the labor market remains flexible? Each of the main unemployment income support systems (unemployment insurance, unemployment assistance, unemployment insurance savings accounts, severance pay, and public works) has strengths and weaknesses. Country-specific conditions, chief among them labor market and other institutions, the capacity to administer each type of system, and the size of the informal sector, determine which system is best suited to developing and transition countries.

This article presents estimates of the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). China is estimated to be the biggest beneficiary (US$31 billion a year from trade reforms in preparation for accession and additional gains of $10 billion a year from reforms after accession), followed by its major trading partners that also undertake liberalization, including the economies in North America, Western Europe, and Taiwan (China). Accession will boost manufacturing sectors in China, especially textiles and apparel, which will benefit directly from the removal of export quotas. Developing economies competing with China in third markets may suffer small losses. Accession will have important distributional consequences for China, with the wages of skilled and unskilled nonfarm workers rising in real terms and relative to those of farm workers. Possible policy changes, including reductions in barriers to labor mobility and improvements in rural education, could more than offset these negative impacts and facilitate the development of China's economy.