El 20 de diciembre de 2015 España dejó de votar por tradición. Al inicio de la campaña, casi la mitad de los votantes no sabía qué opción tomar, y finalmente uno de cada cuatro dejó en la urna algo diferente de lo que siempre había hecho. Estas cifras, inéditas, llevaron a la constitución de un parlamento, el de la XI legislatura, en el que no ha sido posible aglutinar ni siquiera la mayoría mínima que el sistema contempla para formar gobierno en momentos de fragmentación. Al cerrar estas páginas nos encontramos a unas semanas de la guillotina que caerá el 3 de mayo: si no hay gobierno se convocarán elecciones para el 26 de junio. Pase lo que pase, los datos del 20D y los de encuestas posteriores apuntan que ya nada es ni será igual en la política española. El objetivo de este artículo es compartir algunas reflexiones sobre lo que se está moviendo en el comportamiento electoral en España.
El texto se centra en el estudio de la comunicación política, que los candidatos con posibilidades de representación parlamentaria, realizan en las redes sociales durante la campaña electoral a las Cortes Generales del 20 de diciembre de 2015. Se trata de analizar cómo se comunican en este medio, estudiando su efectividad en base al cumplimiento de los axiomas que definen la comunicación política 3.0 y el alcance que dicha comunicación tiene en la ciudadanía, tanto desde una perspectiva cuantitativa como cualitativa. En la perspectiva cuantitativa se analizarán tres áreas, la primera, la distancia entre los mensajes y las preocupaciones de los ciudadanos, la segunda, cuatro categorías de los mensajes, la información, la interactividad, la actitud y la estética. Y la última área el análisis de la red social egocéntrica, identificando con quien se comunica los candidatos. En la cualitativa se analizará el modelo comunicativo y la función que tienen los mensajes, estas será la función persuasiva, emotiva, la de movilización, de reclutamiento, la deliberativa y la participativa. ; Social networks are taking an important role on every communication area and, political communication is no stranger to this new form of communication. Up to this day no politician is left out in this new world of Social Networks. This article is focused on the study of political communication, which candidates with possible parliamentary representation realised during the electoral campaign to General Courts on December 20th of 2015. It is about analysing how they communicate through this media, studying their effectiveness based on the achievement of the axioms that define the 3.0 political communication and the reach such communication has with citizens. Both from a quantity and quality perspective. On the quantity perspective, three areas will be analysed. The first one, the distance between messages and the worries of citizens. Second one, four categories of such messages: the information, interaction, attitude and aesthetic. Last area is the analysis of the egocentric social network, identifying whom which the candidates communicate with. On the quality perspective the communicative model will be analysed and the function the messages carry with them. These functions will be: persuasive, emotive, mobilisation, recruitment, deliberative and participative.
La amplia penetración de novedosos canales para la transmisión de información apoyados en la tecnología ha obligado a los actores políticos a adaptar sus estrategias de comunicación a los nuevos hábitos de consumo informativo de los ciudadanos. En este nuevo entorno, las redes sociales juegan un papel destacado. Esta investigación analiza el uso de Twitter por los principales partidos políticos de ámbito nacional (PP, PSOE, Podemos y Ciudadanos) durante la determinante campaña electoral de las elecciones del 20 de diciembre de 2015, unos comicios convocados en un escenario de gran incertidumbre por la desafección política ciudadana, el alto porcentaje de indecisos, la emergencia de nuevos actores que podían poner fin al tradicional bipartidismo, un sistema mediático fuertemente polarizado y el uso generalizado de las redes sociales como vía de comunicación. Para ello, se estudia cuantitativa y cualitativamente los mensajes emitidos desde cada una de las cuentas oficiales de estas formaciones entre el 4 y el 18 de diciembre de 2015. ; The broad introduction of new channels for the transmission of information based on technology has forced political actors to adapt their communication strategies to the new habits of information consumption of people. In this new environment, social media play a key role. This research analyzes the use of Twitter made by the main national political parties (PP, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos) during the decisive electoral campaign of December 2015 elections, when they had to face an extremely uncertain landscape due to the high number of undecided voters, the impatience of new actors to put an end to traditional bipartisanship, a strongly polarized media system and the widespread use of social networks as a means of communication. With this aim, the messages published between 4-18 December 2015 from the official accounts of these parties have not only been qualitatively, but also quantitatively studied. ; Ciencias de la Comunicación
On May 27th the Republic of Turkey faced her first full-fledged Military takeover (Coup). As it is said, "A Coup is never just a Coup". This review article provides a summary of the atmosphere before and after the coup of 1960 and a critical analysis of the democratic promises it brought. This Paper analyzes different terms used to identify the event such as revolution, insurrection, intervention, and coup. It also discusses the tradition of regular military intervention in the history of the Republic of Turkey. Since the transition to democracy and the multiparty system was not natural this paper also indicates the absence of democratic culture in Turkish history. After 27th May, Turkey was led to the new constitutional structure of 1961. As it is said, the 1924 Constitution that established the first Republic of Turkey was wiped out with a coup and the 1961 Constitution and the Second Republic was established (Dursun, 2005:187). Since then until recent times the military could not separate itself from the political life of Turkey. The following discussions enclose; the origin of the 1960 Coup, the Aftermath, the Conspiracies, the Civilian Military relationship, Traditional and Historical views, Kemalist Principles, Government citizen dialogs, and Socio-economic backwardness. This critical analysis went through different interesting and easily misunderstood concepts (such as Revolt, Revolution, Military takeover, etc.).
Unlike other political leaders, leaders coming to power through military coups face a dual legitimation challenge: they must justify not only why they should rule but also how they came to power. Little attention has been paid to how coup leaders solve this legitimacy deficit and even less to the audiences of this legitimation. We ask: why do some coup leaders legitimate their coups by holding elections while others do not? Counterintuitively, we argue that coup leaders who oust democratically elected leaders are less likely to hold elections, except when tied to US military aid. We test these hypotheses through a data set of military coup regimes from 1946 to 2014 and trace out mechanisms through case studies of the Nigerian coup of 1983 and the Egyptian coup of 2013. This argument provides a new explanation for the emergence of authoritarian elections and a new perspective on the international dimensions of dictatorship.
Se trata de un artículo de investigación sobre la presencia y el tipo de participación social de los cuatro principales partidos políticos de España (PP, PSOE, Podemos y Ciudadanos) en Internet y en las redes sociales. El análisis, definido temporalmente entre las elecciones del 20 de diciembre de 2015 y las del 26 de junio de 2016, se realiza empleando una combinación de técnicas cuantitativas y cualitativas que dan respuesta no solo al qué, al dónde y al cuánto (tipo de presencia, localización, niveles de participación de organizaciones y usuarios, retroalimentación y viralidad, engagement y diálogo social generados), sino también al cómo y al por qué (política comunicativa, evaluación de contenidos, afinidad y sentiment ), y que nos permiten realizan un análisis comparativo entre las cuatro fuerzas políticas. Con respecto a los sitios web, los resultados constatan presencias adecuadas atendiendo al posicionamiento orgánico y al carácter descriptivo de la arquitectura de composición; y, con respecto a las redes sociales, las participaciones son, por lo general, pertinentes desde el punto de vista técnico, pero presentan un escaso grado de innovación y un bajo nivel de interacción social, por lo que se utilizan más como un escaparate publicitario que como un foro de debate y participación. ; This is a research on the presence and type of social participation of the four main political parties in Spain (PP, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos) on the Internet and social networks. The analysis, temporarily defined between the elections of 20th December (2015) and the 26th June (2016), is carried out using a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques that respond not only to what, where and how (kind of presence, location, levels of participation of organizations and users, feedback and virality, engagement and generated social dialogue), but also the how and why (communication policy, evaluation of content, affinity and sentiment). On the other hand, this allows us to perform a comparison between the four political forces. With respect to websites, the results confirm appropriate presences taking the organic positioning and the architecture of composition, and, with respect to social networks, they are generally correct from a technical point of view, but they reflect a low level of innovation and social interaction, so they are used as an advertising showcase and not as forum for discussion and participation. ; Facultad de Periodismo y Comunicación Social
Se trata de un artículo de investigación sobre la presencia y el tipo de participación social de los cuatro principales partidos políticos de España (PP, PSOE, Podemos y Ciudadanos) en Internet y en las redes sociales. El análisis, definido temporalmente entre las elecciones del 20 de diciembre de 2015 y las del 26 de junio de 2016, se realiza empleando una combinación de técnicas cuantitativas y cualitativas que dan respuesta no solo al qué, al dónde y al cuánto (tipo de presencia, localización, niveles de participación de organizaciones y usuarios, retroalimentación y viralidad, engagement y diálogo social generados), sino también al cómo y al por qué (política comunicativa, evaluación de contenidos, afinidad y sentiment), y que nos permiten realizan un análisis comparativo entre las cuatro fuerzas políticas. Con respecto a los sitios web, los resultados constatan presencias adecuadas atendiendo al posicionamiento orgánico y al carácter descriptivo de la arquitectura de composición; y, con respecto a las redes sociales, las participaciones son, por lo general, pertinentes desde el punto de vista técnico, pero presentan un escaso grado de innovación y un bajo nivel de interacción social, por lo que se utilizan más como un escaparate publicitario que como un foro de debate y participación ; This is a research on the presence and type of social participation of the four main political parties in Spain (PP, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos) on the Internet and social networks. The analysis, temporarily defined between the elections of 20th December (2015) and the 26th June (2016), is carried out using a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques that respond not only to what, where and how (kind of presence, location, levels of participation of organizations and users, feedback and virality, engagement and generated social dialogue), but also the how and why (communication policy, evaluation of content, affinity and sentiment). On the other hand, this allows us to perform a comparison between the four ...
As the elected president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez has undertaken a different type of economic and political agenda - one that presents a challenge to American - led neoliberalism and one which represents one nation's struggle towards a socialist project. In April 2002, there was a successful, yet short-lived, coup against Chavez. Many believe that the coup was heavily supported and financed by the Bush administration and the National Endowment for Democracy, an organisation that serves the interests of American imperialism. Using Edward Herman and Noam Chomsky's Propaganda Model in conjunction with Critical Discourse Analysis, this thesis critically examines the media coverage of the 2002 coup in the New York Times and the Globe and Mail.
A large proportion of coup attempts in autocracies occur in the aftermath of elections, yet little systematic research exists on the topic. Drawing on recent literature on elections in autocracies, we present an argument to explain postelection coups. While we recognize that electoral institutions have the potential to stabilize autocracies, we illustrate that the election event can spark instability when incumbents reveal electoral weakness. Electoral outcomes—in the form of vote shares and opposition reactions—are signals containing information about the strength of the opposition, and indirectly about the likelihood of a successful full-scale revolution that would compromise the privileged positions of regime elites. In these situations, coups are likely to be initiated to avoid a revolution, either by serving as concessions to the opposition or by facilitating increased repression. We perform a large-N study that supports our argument, significantly nuancing the claim that elections stabilize autocracies.
In: Tansey , O 2016 , ' The Limits of the 'Democratic Coup' Thesis : International Politics and Post-coup Authoritarianism ' , The Journal of Global Security Studies , vol. 1 , no. 3 , pp. 220–234 . https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw009
Recent studies have suggested that post-Cold War coups are much more likely to be followed by democratic elections than their Cold War predecessors, and that this trend is the result of the rise of international policies of democratic conditionality. Some argue we live in an age of the 'democratic coup'. This paper makes two principal contributions to the debate on the relationship between coups and regime type. First, it presents an analysis of the post-coup trajectories of coup countries after 1991. Using descriptive statistics to highlight trends across the post-Cold War cases, the analysis raises questions over any optimistic view of the capacity of coups to contribute to long-term democratization. While there is a clear trend for holding post-coup elections within five years of a coup, most countries experiencing coups fail to go on to establish high quality democratic rule and consolidate some form of authoritarian rule. Coups are not a force for democracy. Second, the paper adds to our understanding of the international dimensions of post-coup political development by highlighting the role of international autocratic sponsors. When states are strategically important, or when they have strong linkages to non-western autocracies, coup leaders are likely to receive international support and protection rather than condemnation and sanctions. The article examines the cases of post-coup authoritarian consolidation in Fiji and Egypt to illustrate the arguments.
Las elecciones generales del 20 de diciembre de 2015 (20D) y el 26 de junio de 2016 (26J) han condicionado y transformado el escenario político español, conduciéndolo a una etapa de polarización, pactos e inestabilidad. Tanto es así, que entre 2015 y 2019 los españoles han votado en cuatro elecciones generales. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la estrategia comunicativa: temas, tipologías de mensajes, interacción con otros usuarios, (entre otras variables), que los dos partidos políticos que emergieron con fuerza en el escenario político nacional, en las elecciones generales del 20D (Podemos y Ciudadanos), llevaron a cabo en Twitter en ambos períodos electorales. La investigación se desarrolla con metodología mixta, cuantitativa y cualitativa, usando el social network analysis y el análisis de contenido (significación del mensaje político y tematización) como técnicas investigativas. Mediante el uso del criterio de viralidad del Top Discussion Indicator (TDI) se han analizado 121 tuits en total que cumplían con el requisito de tener un alto grado de viralidad. Los resultados sostienen que los mensajes auto propagandísticos y de contra campaña son los más difundidos por lo que, los partidos no aprovechan las posibilidades discursivas de Twitter para generar un debate con la ciudadanía. ; The general elections of December 20th of 2015 (20D) and June 26th of 2016 (26J) have conditioned and transformed the Spanish political scenario, leading to a stage of polarization, pacts and instability, so much so that between 2015 and 2019 the Spaniards have voted in four general elections. The objective of this work is to analyze the communicative strategy: themes, types of messages, interaction with other users, among other variables than the two political parties that emerged strongly on the national political scene in the general elections of 20D (Podemos and Ciudadanos) carried out on Twitter in both election periods. The research is carried out with mixed, quantitative and qualitative methodology, using social network analysis and content analysis (significance of the political message and thematization) as investigative techniques. Through the use of the Top Discussion Indicator (TDI) virality criterion, a total of 121 tweets were analyzed that met the requirement of having a high degree of virality. The results maintain that the self-propaganda and counter-campaign messages are the most widespread, so the parties don't take advantage of Twitter's discursive possibilities to generate a debate with citizens.
El presente artículo, partiendo del clásico de Frantz Fanon "Los condendos de la tierra", explora la representación de la subalternidad colonial en "Apocalypse Now" de Francis Ford Coppola (la magnífica adaptación cinematográfica de la novela de Joseph Conrad "El corazón de las tinieblas") y en "La batalla de Argel" de Gillo Pontecorvo. El artículo defiende que mientras la hiper-estetización de la violencia de Coppola construye un lugar de enunciación colonial-occidental hegemónico en el que el colonizado queda reducido a un "Otro" invisible, la estética documental de Pontecorvo a la hora de tratar la guerra de liberación argelina, representa al antagonista colonizado en una posición de poder político. El artículo quiere llamar la atención sobre la importancia del cine a la hora de generar los imaginarios políticos sobre el Colonialismo y las luchas de liberación nacional en un contexto como el actual, en el que las intervenciones militares occidentales en Irak y Afganistán y la producción cinematográfica que las ha acompañado han vuelto a plantear el problema de la representación del "Otro".
Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d'état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model uncertainty still looms large. About one hundred potential determinants of coups have been proposed, but no consensus has emerged on an established baseline model for analyzing coups. We address this problem by testing the sensitivity of inferences to over three million model permutations in an extreme bounds analysis. Overall, we test the robustness of 66 factors proposed in the empirical literature based on a monthly sample of 164 countries that covers the years 1952 to 2011. We find that slow economic growth rates, previous coup experiences, and other forms of political violence to be particularly conducive to inciting coups.
Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d'état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model uncertainty still looms large. About one hundred potential determinants of coups have been proposed, but no consensus has emerged on an established baseline model for analyzing coups. We address this problem by testing the sensitivity of inferences to over three million model permutations in an extreme bounds analysis. Overall, we test the robustness of 66 factors proposed in the empirical literature based on a monthly sample of 164 countries that covers the years 1952 to 2011. We find that slow economic growth rates, previous coup experiences, and other forms of political violence to be particularly conducive to inciting coups.