La escalada de la problemática socio-económica en el marco de la reestructuración del capitalismo, trae a colación dos debates de importancia cardinal para el funcionamiento del socio economicidad colombiana, estos son: relación universidad-sociedad y reestudio de la Economía Política en la economía. Al revisar los artículos publicados en la última década (1999-2011) en 3 de las principales revistas de economía de Colombia: Cuadernos de Economía (U. Nacional), Desarrollo y sociedad (U. Los Andes) y Lecturas de Economía (U. Antioquia) y paralelamente analizar los contenidos impartidos en los programas de economía del país, se evidencia la enorme brecha que separa las preocupaciones de los investigadores colombianos del contacto con la realidad y permite aseverar que particularmente hoy es menester el reavivamiento de la Economía Política en los planes de estudio de nuestra formación. ; The escalation of the socio-economic part of the restructuring of capitalism, brings up two debates of cardinal importance for the functioning of the cheapness Colombian partner, these are university-society and restudy of Political Economy in the economy. In reviewing the articles published in the last decade (1999-2011) in 3 of the major journals of economics in Colombia: Journal of Economics (National U.), Development and Society (U. Los Andes) and Readings in Economics (U. Antioquia) and in parallel to analyze the content taught in economics programs in the country, highlights the huge gap between the concerns of Colombian investigators of touch with reality and can now assert that it is necessary particularly the revival of political economy in curriculum of our training.
Editorial. ; Trabajo Especial ; El nombre Humania del Sur. Recorrido por la memoria y sus arcanos. ; The name South Humania. A tour through memory and its secrets. ; Nweihed, Kaldone G. ; Debate ; El club nuclear del siglo XXI, rumbo al día después. ; The nuclear club in the XXI century: On the way to the day after. ; Lee, Franz J.T. ; El tratado de no proliferación nuclear. ; ¿Es posible el desarme? ; The treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons: is disarmament possible? ; Fernández Colón, Gustavo ; India, potencia nuclear: algo más que un elemento para el balance de poder. ; Nuclear India: more than an element for the balance of power. ; Mata, María Gabriela ; El problema nuclear en Corea del Norte. ; The nuclear predicament in North Corea. ; Cejas Armas, Ismael ; La Unión Europea ante la crisis nuclear iraní. ; The European Union and the iranian nuclear crisis. ; Schmidt, Axel ; El proyecto nuclear de Venezuela, el "derecho" de Irán a la energía nuclear y la contraposición de dos tipos de religiosidad. ; Venezuela's nuclear project, Iran's "right" to nuclear energy, and the contrast between two kinds of religiosity. ; Capriles Arias, Elías Manuel ; Caleidoscopio ; La agresión israelí al Líbano del año 2006. ; The israeli aggression against Lebanon of 2006. ; Yunis, Fadi Kallab ; Diálogos ; Sin miedo. ¿hacia la paz? ; Diálogo con Ahmad Sobhami, ex embajador de la República Islámica de Irán en Venezuela. ; Dialogue with Admad Sobhani, ex-ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran ; in Venezuela. ; Mata, María Gabriela ; Reseñas ; González, Silvia Lidia: Hiroshima, la noticia que nunca fue. ¿Cómo se censura la información en tiempos de conflicto? ; Reseñado por: Ferrer, Argelia ; Jatami, Muhamad: El diálogo entre civilizaciones. ; Reseñado por: Mata, María Gabriela ; Documentos ; Manifiesto ecosocialista. Por un socialismo del siglo XXI libre de los riesgos de la energía ; nuclear. ; Tratado sobre la no proliferación de las armas nucleáres (TNP) ; 87-97 ; semestral ; Nivel analítico
The escalation in the level of conflict in the Gulf of Guinea poses a risk to global security. The purpose of this article is to analyze the contextual variables that influence the outbreak of a violent high intensity conflict in the area. The spillover effects of a regional crisis would seriously affect stability in West Africa. ; La escalada en el grado de conflictividad en el golfo de Guinea supone un riesgo para la seguridad mundial. El objeto de este artículo es realizar un análisis de las variables contextuales que condicionan el estallido de un conflicto violento de alta intensidad en la región. Los efectos desbordantes de una crisis regional pondrían en riesgo la estabilidad de África Occidental en su conjunto.
The paper examines negotiated resolution of armed conflicts through an account of the war between El Salvador and Honduras. The situation before the conflict, characterized by deep political instability and marked influence of the military is dealt with. After mentioning the reasons of constraints in their relationship attention is focused on war operations as well as on the various vain attempt made by regional organizations to solve the conflict before both parties signed a peace treaty. Finally, some comments are offered regarding action mechanisms used in the case, suggesting the appropriateness of counting with permanent crisis management systems which would prevent their escalation to an armed conflict ; El trabajo examina la esolución negociada de los conflictos armados a partir de una reseña de la guerra entre El Salvador y Honduras. Se revisa la situación previa al conflicto en ambos países, caracterizada por una profunda inestabilidad política y la marcada influencia militar. Tras mencionar las razones del distanciamiento, se centra la atención en las operaciones de guerra y en los esfuerzos de las organizaciones regionales por resolver la situación, que luego de diversos altibajos culminaron en el tratado de paz de 1980. Finalmente, se formulan algunas observaciones acerca de los mecanismos de acción a los que se recurrió en el caso y se sugiere la conveniencia de contar con sistemas permanentes de manejo de crisis que permitan impedir que ellas lleguen a constituir un conflicto bélico.
A veinte años de la Constitución de 1991, y después de padecer una violencia endémica durante la década de los noventa, y por qué no decirlo, también en la primera década del siglo XXI, es pertinente hacer una reflexión ponderada sobre los efectos que ha tenido la Constitución de 1991 sobre el comportamiento tanto del Estado como de los actores armados. En especial porque algunos críticos ven en la constitución un obstáculo para la terminación del conflicto debido a su abundante carta de derechos, que según su entender están diseñados para proteger a los malos y maniatar al Estado. Para otros la Constitución se convirtió en una especie de fetiche que no debía ser reformado, pues de hacerlo, se perderían los espacios democráticos ganados y tendría como consecuencia una escalada de la violencia. El artículo demuestra que ni lo uno ni lo otro es cierto, es decir, ni la carta de derechos es la responsable de los problemas de violencia que sufre el país, ni los espacios de democratización abiertos por la constitución son la panacea para culminar con la violencia en Colombia. Este artículo pone en su justa medida los aciertos de los constituyentes como los dilemas no resueltos que conllevó la aprobación de la Constitución de 1991. ; Vinte anos após da constituição de 1991, e depois de padecer uma violência endêmica durante a década dos noventa, e porque não dizê-lo, também na primeira década do século XXI, é pertinente fazer uma reflexão ponderada sobre os efeitos que tem tido a Constituição do ano 1991 sobre o comportamento tanto do Estado quanto dos atores armados. Em especial porque alguns críticos vêem na constituição um obstáculo para a terminação do conflito devido a sua abundante carta de direitos,, que segundo seu entender estão desenhados para proteger aos maus e maniatar ao Estado. Para outros a Constituição se converteu em uma espécie de obsessão que não devia ser reformado, pois nesse caso, se perderiam os espaços democráticos ganhados e teria como conseqüência uma escalada da violência. O artigo demonstra que nem uma coisa nem a outra é verdade, ou seja, nem a carta dos direitos é a responsável dos problemas de violência que sofre o país, nem os espaços de democratização abertos pela constituição são a panacéia para culminar com a violência na Colômbia. Este artigo põe em sua justa medida os acertos dos constituintes como os dilemas não resolvidos que levou à aprovação da Constituição de 1991. ; Twenty tears after the 1991 Constitution, and after having suffered endemic violence during the 1990s, and why not admit it, during the first decade of the 21st Century, it is relevant to make a balanced reflection on the effects the 1991 Constitution has had on the behavior both of the State and of the armed actors, particularly because some critics claims that the Constitution is an obstacle to ending the conflict because of its generous chart of rights, which they believe are designed to protect the bad guys and to keep the State's hands tied. For others the Constitution has become a kind of fetish that must not be reformed, because any reform would compromise the democratic spaces that have been won and would lead to an escalation of violence. This article shows that neither is true: the chart of rights is not responsible for the problems of violence the country is experiencing, and the democratization vehicles established by the constitution are no panacea to end violence in Colombia. The article puts both the achievements and the unresolved dilemmas of the 1991 Constitution in proper perspective.
Hate speech is a specific form of expression targeting certain vulnerable or minority groups. It is a social phenomenon which has gained strength in recent years due to its normalisation from the public sphere and escalation on social media, particularly in contexts of crisis such as the circumstances that have arisen around COVID-19. This paper presents a systematic review of the scientific literature produced over the past two decades in English, Portuguese and Spanish as a tool to examine, from social science, the landscape of studies around one of the main threats democratic societies face today. In addition to an evidence-based idea of the state of the art, the results show a substantial increase of research into hate speech over the past five years and how focal points and disciplines have evolved from those approaches and are gaining in importance, along with the analysis of regulations and laws, computational linguistics and discourse analysis. Furthermore, the dearth of research from the field of communication and education is confirmed, which would allow us to examine not only its management and analyse its impact, but rather its understanding from critical pedagogical perspectives committed to the deepening and extension of democracy. ; Hate speech is a specific form of expression targeting certain vulnerable or minority groups. It is a social phenomenon which has gained strength in recent years due to its normalisation from the public sphere and escalation on social media, particularly in contexts of crisis such as the circumstances that have arisen around COVID-19. This paper presents a systematic review of the scientific literature produced over the past two decades in English, Portuguese and Spanish as a tool to examine, from social science, the landscape of studies around one of the main threats democratic societies face today. In addition to an evidence-based idea of the state of the art, the results show a substantial increase of research into hate speech over the past five years and how focal ...
This article studies the news coverage of the pandemic generated by Covid-19 in public broadcasting in Spain and France. Through analysis of the headlines, sources used and a study of their statements, it reflects on the mediatization of this crisis during its first wave in two Mediterranean countries. The study of the news coverage of this global health crisis in two public media responds to the importance of the media in a time of infopandemic. The corpus, comprising news on Covid-19 or coronavirus on RTVE.es (17 031) and Francetvinfo.fr (14 492), broadcast between January 15 2020, and 15 June 2020, was selected through quantitative analysis. Once counted, 70 units were randomly selected in each medium for in-depth content analysis. The results show that, in both cases, coverage of the pandemic in the first wave conveyed a large amount of information every day. However, the increase in news items does not always coincide with the increase in deaths or infections but rather responds to specific events related to the pandemic (such as states of alarm, de-escalation, etc.). For preference, government sources are used, alternating, especially in the French environment, with expert and health sources. The story, both from sources and that of the journalists, varies depending on the evolution of the pandemic. ; El principal objetivo de este artículo es estudiar el tratamiento informativo de la pandemia generada por la Covid-19 en los medios audiovisuales de servicio público en España y Francia. A través del análisis de los titulares, fuentes empleadas y el estudio de sus declaraciones se pretende elaborar una reflexión acerca de la mediatización de esta crisis durante la primera ola en dos países del mediterráneo. El estudio del tratamiento informativo de esta crisis sanitaria global en dos medios de titularidad pública responde a la importancia de estos en un momento de infopandemia. El corpus está formado, en un primer análisis cuantitativo, por las noticias en las que se habla de Covid-19 o coronavirus en RTVE.es ...
This article explores the State and its units of conflict management's capacitiesand limitations to transform social environmental conflicts. The analysis focuses on the type of intervention that Peruvian governments had been using in the media arena in response to the escalation of public conflicts. Furthermore, the article also focuses on how the government can use the information to play a role in the transformation and prevention of conflicts. Lastly, the discussion considers how the government handles its communication engagement and strategy with the citizens through conflict management -from a governance and public value perspective. The article concludes that the communication dimension is part of any government conflict management approach; therefore, it should be embedded within a national system for conflict management that puts the priority in the prevention and transformation of conflicts, rather than on the administration of crisis. ; El artículo aborda de manera exploratoria las capacidades y limitaciones comunicacionales estatales y de las unidades de gestión de conflictos para la transformación de los conflictos socioambientales. Se analiza el tipo de intervención que los Gobiernos en el Perú realizaron en el espacio mediático, a raíz de los conflictos que más trascendencia pública tuvieron. Asimismo, se describe la información en la gestión gubernamental de los conflictos y su rol en la prevención y transformación de los conflictos. Por último, se discute el relacionamiento comunicativo que el Estado viene desarrollando con los ciudadanos a través de la gestión que hace de los conflictos desde una perspectiva de gobernanza y construcción de valor público.El artículo concluye que la dimensión comunicativa está presente en todo el proceso de la gestión de los conflictos, y por lo tanto, debería estar articulada a un diseño institucional de un sistema nacional de gestión de conflictos que priorice la prevención y la transformación en lugar de un enfoque administrativo de las crisis.
From 1995 to 2015, Ecuador experienced one of its longest periods of deep political, social and economic crisis. During this interval, three democratically elected governments (Bucaram, 1997; Mahuad, 2000 and Gutiérrez, 2005) were overthrown and a critical juncture arose in 2006 as a result. Since 2007, and as a consequence of these chaotic circumstances, new populist strongmen ascended and, amid the biggest bonanza of oil revenues in Ecuadorian history, established a defective democracy. The gradual escalation of authoritarian tendencies during the three consecutive terms in which Rafael Correa has acted as President, have resulted in the severe weakening of the country's democratic institutions, since Correa's has strived to perpetuate himself in power through continual re-election into office, instead of building an institutional quality-democracy. This study aims to clarify the historical foundations of the recurrence of caudillistas, populist and authoritarian governments in Ecuador, revealing the basis of the specific path dependence of Ecuadorian politics. We also explore the Jungian theory, specifically the "pseudo-hero myth", as the political narrative which Correa's regime successfully employed to establish its hegemony. Additionally, we perform a psychological-political case analysis by examining the social psychology components underlying the Ecuadorian path dependence towards authoritarian and populist caudillos: Specifically, our case study is framed within historical institutionalism, which focuses on methodological individualism to attend various political science and psychological-political theories.
The Gaza Strip is one of the world's poorest areas in terms of water, mainly due to pollution and overexploitation of aquifers. In addition, the region has a humanitarian crisis as a result of the numerous escalations of war, the lack of food security and the lack of water and sanitation. A first conclusion is that water sharing, access and management are central to progress towards economic, social and political stability in the region. Gaza is in an unsustainable situation of permanent water scarcity, especially affecting the most vulnerable: women. A second conclusion is that, in order to improve the current situation of the right to water, it must be linked to women's rights, as well as to the strengthening of their role in negotiations and management in basic aspects for economic and social transformation in the Strip. ; La Franja de Gaza es una de las zonas más pobres del mundo en agua, a causa fundamentalmente de la contaminación y la sobreexplotación de los acuíferos. Adicionalmente, la región arrastra una crisis humanitaria como consecuencia de las numerosas escaladas bélicas, la falta de seguridad alimentaria o la carencia de agua y saneamiento. Una primera conclusión es que el reparto del agua, su acceso y gestión constituye un elemento central para avanzar hacia la estabilidad económica, social y política en la región. Gaza se encuentra en una insostenible situación de escasez hídrica permanente, afectando especialmente a las más vulnerables como las mujeres. Una segunda conclusión es que, para mejorar la situación actual del derecho al agua, se debe enlazar con los derechos de las mujeres, junto con el reforzamiento de su papel en las negociaciones y la gestión en aspectos básicos para la transformación económica y social en la Franja. ; La bande de Gaza est l'une des régions les plus pauvres du monde en eau, principalement en raison de la pollution et de la surexploitation des aquifères. En outre, la région connaît une crise humanitaire en raison des nombreuses escalades de la guerre, de l'absence ...
En la literatura sobre democratización, la movilización social y, especialmente, su radicalización, ha sido tratada como un obstáculo a la consolidación democrática. En este texto se analizará el intenso duelo de manifestaciones y contra-manifestaciones políticas que tuvo lugar en Portugal entre mayo y diciembre de 1975 cuando un directorio militar radicalizado —aliado al Partido Comunista (PCP)—amenazaba con no respetar los resultados de las elecciones constituyentes, amparándose, como referente de legitimidad, en la intensa movilización obrera, vecinal y jornalera. En este análisis se intentará mostrar como otra movilización, la de "resistencia" contra el Movimiento de las Fuerzas Armados (MFA), que incluyó manifestaciones gigantescas en todo el país y más de 80 asaltos colectivos a sedes del Partido Comunista (PCP) u organizaciones afines, fue fundamental en la conversión de los resultados electorales en contrapoder político efectivo. El artículo concluirá con un análisis de las condiciones de eficacia de las campañas de movilización popular en situaciones de crisis y sobre la importancia de la noción de escalada del conflicto en la interacción estratégica entre movimientos, contra movimientos y autoridades. ; In literature on democratization, the social mobilization and. specially, its radicalization, have been treated as an obstacle to democratic consolidation. In this text we would analyze the intense duel of political demonstrations and counter-demonstrations that took place in Portugal between May and December 1975, when radicalized military directory, allied to the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP), threatened with a political take-over despite of the results of the Constituent Assembly elections. This analysis will show that "resistence" mobilization against the Armed Forces Movement (MFA), that included massive marches and more than 80 collective assaults to the PCP's headquarters, was crucial for the electoral results'conversion on eftective political power. The communication will conclude analyzing the conditions of effectiveness of popular mobilizations and of the importance of conflict escalation strategies in the interaction between movements, counter-movements and authorities.
At less than three weeks away from the national election, an Obama victory, even if not inevitable, seems today quite likely. Political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, in his on-line publication Crystal Ball, has now put Obama over the magic number of 270 electoral votes (50% plus 1 of all electoral votes), with potentially many more votes to be added from close races in several states. Barack Obama leads John McCain in the polls by ten points, and the McCain campaign is in disarray. It has stopped campaigning in some states (i.e. Michigan) and is trying to hold on to other states that traditionally vote Republican but are about to be lost for the first time in decades (Virginia, North Carolina). Barring a huge end-of-October surprise, this trend will firm up and determine the result in favor of Obama. Democrats are also poised to win a majority of seats in the Senate and House of Representatives. The so-called "coattails effect" of the presidential race on the congressional election is starting to worry Republicans, who are becoming very critical of John McCain's campaign. Considering that the electoral race was at a continuous dead heat in the last two months, it is worth discussing what has determined the steady rise of Obama in the polls. First and foremost, of course, was the financial crisis. The astounding institutional banking crisis that originated from the meltdown of the real estate market, the resulting credit crunch, have created an anxiety not seen since the Great Depression of 1930. Historically, the Democratic Party has a better reputation for salvaging the economy in times of crisis. In addition to the historical record, several political scientists, Alan Abramowitz from Emory and Larry Bartels from Princeton among others, have developed models based on the correlation between economic growth and presidential election results, and have found that when the economy is not growing in the second quarter of the election year, the party in power almost without exception loses the election. But just as important as the economic disarray has been the reaction of each candidate to that crisis, and the style of leadership that emerged from it. One week before the Wall Street debacle, McCain had said that" the fundamentals of the economy were strong". That unfortunate statement immediately gave an unequivocal ring of truth to Obama's claim that his opponent was "out of touch" with the realities of the country, and it will probably be remembered in history books as the critical turning point of this election. In the first debate, both candidates were cautious about the rescue plan (which had not yet been fully developed by the Treasury) and answered the questions on the economy as if little had changed. However, two days earlier, McCain had suspended his campaign and announced he was needed in Washington to "help solve the crisis". He had also demanded that the debate be cancelled because "times were too serious for that type of exchange". This was a gamble taken by his campaign and it backfired badly, as Obama (who also flew to Washington and attended the same meeting at the invitation of Bush) insisted that because times were difficult, the debate had become even more important and should take place: Americans were now paying attention to who should be the one to lead them out of this mess. Ultimately, McCain backed down and attended the debate, after no agreement on the Rescue Plan came out of that White House meeting. Although he did very well, was energetic and on message, his erratic pre-debate behavior worked against him by providing ammunition to the opposition, who were thereby able to portray him as unpredictable and over excitable, not the steady hand you would want at the helm of a nation in turmoil. Still, most experts and observers considered the first debate a draw, with both candidates passing their respective tests: Obama proving he was presidential enough to hold the office, and McCain reminding the public of his experience and dedication to the country. However, the polls showed most voters had chosen Obama as the winner. The second debate was in a town-hall meeting format, but with strict control of time and of the questioning. Veteran journalist Tom Brockaw moderated it with a strong hand, but the questions were lame and it was a lackluster performance on the part of everybody involved. However, the body language proved an asset to Obama, who listened respectfully, did not take any notes, and when needed, moved comfortably around the set to approach the public. On the other hand, McCain had a nervous restlessness about him that put him at a disadvantage; he kept going back to his corner to make notes on his opponent's comments and at a certain point referred to Obama as "that one" in what was perceived by many to be an expression of slight contempt. This was compounded by his aimless wondering around the set, at times having to be called on by Brockaw for blocking the moderator's teleprompter. In comparison, Obama looked very relaxed and cool, exuding that kind of calm and self-confidence that most people seem to be yearning for during these difficult times. It paid off, and his numbers started mounting dramatically on the next day. Even before that debate, the McCain campaign had thrown all self-restraint overboard and was using every trick in the book of negative campaigning. Thus, the name of William Ayres has become very widely known across the country, as a "domestic terrorist" who organized a bombing campaign of the Pentagon in the 60s, and as a "close associate to Barack Obama". Ayres was the founder of the Weather Underground movement, which protested against the Vietnam War four decades ago. Today he is a university professor and an educational reformer who has worked with many politicians (both Republican and Democrat) to change the educational system in Chicago. The more McCain slips in the poll numbers, the more we hear allusions to Obama's radical "associate", even if their contacts have been sporadic, that they met only a few years ago, and that Obama was eight years old when Ayres was a radical anti-war activist. McCain, however, did not bring this up in the face-to-face debate, perhaps for fear of opening the door to his own connection to Charles Keating, the convicted Savings and Loan scandal figure of the 1980s, whose investigation by regulators McCain had tried to suppress. McCain's vice-presidential candidate, Sarah Palin, on the other hand, has at every opportunity mentioned Ayres' name at her rallies, working her base up to frenzy to the point of violent threats, with some yelling "off with his (Obama's) head". For good measure, she added underhanded allusions to his "foreignness" (read: race) by saying for example: "He is not a man who sees America the way you and I see it." This decision to play the "guilt by association" game and to associate Obama with terrorism (of any kind) has led to a violent escalation in the rhetoric and has roused the base, but does not seem to be working with the independent voters, as poll after poll continues to show. On the contrary, it seems to have hurt McCain: at last weekend rallies he had to "correct" several of his own supporters who in their questions to him claimed Obama was an "Arab", a terrorist, a criminal. After one of such claims, McCain very determinedly took the microphone away from a woman and told her: "No, Ma'm, that is not true. He is a decent family man with whom I just happen to have disagreements on policy." Surely this disappointed the base, which has been led to believe differently. In all fairness to Senator McCain, he is not a racist; in fact, he is a very moderate, middle of the road Republican who has taken on his own party on matters of campaign finance reform and immigration. Why, then, is he playing this self-destructive game? The only logical answer is: out of desperation, as his numbers slip and several senior Republicans have turned against him. The constant chasing of the headlines, the constant spewing of "rapid responses and frantic emails" has resulted in an incoherent message to the detriment of his own personal appeal. Yesterday Bill Kristol, political analyst and commentator of impeccable conservative credentials, and editor of the Weekly Standard, in an op-ed column in the New York Times, called for McCain to fire his campaign staff, "set himself free" and run as the "cheerful, open and accessible candidate" he was in the past. He said it is the "strategic incoherence and operational incompetence of his staff that has made his campaign dysfunctional…and toxic." To this, McCain retorted that "even Bill Kristol had bought into the Obama line" and that he himself was "exactly where he wanted to be, with the whole media establishment against him." However, Republicans are starting to distance themselves from McCain, who they think is dragging the whole party down and will be responsible for loss of Senate and House Republican races, too. To compound his plight even more, yesterday a bipartisan ethics report by the state legislature of Alaska found Sarah Palin abused her power when she fired the Police Commissioner over a family vendetta against a state trooper (an affair already nicknamed "Troopergate" by the media). Voters seem to have tuned McCain out; it is no longer a question of message. It is a question of leadership, of calm amid the turmoil, of whom Americans want to answer the proverbial three-in-the-morning phone call that rings in the White House. Confronted with the angst and fury of John McCain, his impulsive change of course and mixed messages at a time of enormous economic uncertainty, voters are turning in larger numbers to Obama, who has remained unflustered in the face of nasty accusations. Composed, focused on the economy, he dismisses the violent rhetoric of his opponents, and prefers to focus on the difficulty of the times and on the specifics of his policy solutions. He has sharpened his message, spoken directly to the issues and remained a sea of calm amidst the turmoil, a source of optimism amidst the gloom and doom of the headlines. In the meantime, his campaign has registered hundreds of thousands of voters in many states that have traditionally voted Republican, and that today are surprisingly in play for the Democrats (namely Virginia, North Carolina). The McCain campaign is financially weaker and had to pull out of Michigan, where he was down eight points, in order to concentrate more resources in Florida, where the race is still tight, but where the economy has been severely hit by the real estate bust and by the reduction in tourism due to the credit crunch, all of which may favor Obama. In spite of the 270 electoral votes that put him over the top, with potentially many more votes to be added from close races in several states, an Obama win is still not assured. McCain is defending states that went for Bush in the last two elections and which he absolutely must win in order to have a slim chance at the whole, and therefore he can't be on the offense as much in other states. If Obama wins Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina, he will be the first non-Southerner Democrat to carry these states since John F. Kennedy. That explains the frustration of Republican Party stalwarts with McCain, his irresponsible choice of running mate and the unraveling of his campaign. Ironically, in the first debate McCain accused Obama of not knowing the difference between a tactic and a strategy. It actually seems it is McCain who has confused the two. Populism as a political tactic is common, but as the main strategy it is ineffective and harmful for the country. At times like this, when people are worried about their jobs, their pensions and their health care, the populist message of anger and division is not what the average voter is looking for. They are looking instead for some measure of optimism and reassurance. That is why they have turned to Obama. To win, the McCain campaign should stop playing the race–and-terrorism card, and instead bring up a concept which surprisingly has been all but ignored in this election: that of Washington being swept up by a "one-party rule", with Democrats controlling not only the White House but also Congress. No checks and balances, no limits on government in this country of Lockean traditions? That is a scenario that few Americans would look forward too, even in difficult times. It may win McCain more votes than destructive insinuations about his opponent. Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science and Geography Director, ODU Model United Nations Program Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
