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Iranian proxies throughout the Middle East are involved in a multifront escalation. The correct approach for the United States is to engage the Middle East consistently through this crisis and beyond to promote long-term stability.
The post Iran's Hand in Attacks Targeting US, Israel appeared first on American Enterprise Institute - AEI.

1. Labour's return to power, nuclear sharing, Rhodesia, and the escalation of the Vietnam War, March 1964-March 1966 -- 2. Dissociation, NATO, and the continuing crisis in Rhodesia, March 1966-January 1967 -- 3. The Wilson-Kosygin talks, crisis in the Middle East, the defence review, and the devaluation of sterling, January-December 1967 -- 4. Withdrawal from east of Suez, Wilson's visit to Moscow, gold and monetary crises, Vietnam peace initiatives, and the end of the Johnson presidency, January 1968-January 1969.

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate emergency medical services (EMS) professional response to escalating threats of violence during simulated patient encounters and describe differences in behaviors by characteristics. METHODS: EMS professionals of a large county‐based system participated in 1 of 4 standardized patient care scenarios. Each 8‐minute scenario included escalated threats of violence such that EMS personnel should escape the scene for safety. Trained evaluators recorded EMS professionals' performance using standardized data elements. Outcomes included EMS personnel escape and verbal de‐escalation attempts. Descriptive statistics and univariable odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) are reported. RESULTS: There were 270 EMS professionals evaluated as individual members of 2‐person crews. Overall, 54% escaped the unsafe scene and 54% made an adequate de‐escalation attempt; 20% did not make an adequate de‐escalation attempt nor escape the unsafe scene. Paramedics demonstrated lower odds of escaping compared to emergency medical technicians (OR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.17–0.94), yet greater odds of adequate de‐escalation (OR: 3.17, 95% CI: 1.38–7.31). EMS professionals with more than 20 years of experience (OR: 0.32, 95% CI: 0.13–0.79, ref:2 years or less) and those with military experience (OR: 0.37; 95% CI: 0.17–0.81) demonstrated reduced odds of escaping. Crisis intervention team (CIT) training was associated with reduced odds of escape (OR: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.21–0.69), but increased odds of adequate de‐escalation (OR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.19–4.04). CONCLUSIONS: Nearly half of EMS professionals did not remove themselves from a simulated patient care scenario with an escalating threat of physical violence. EMS‐specific training for de‐escalation as a first‐line technique, recognizing imminent violence, and leaving a dangerous environment is needed.

ПРЕГЛЕД НА ЗАШТИТАТА ОД КРИЗА ВО ОДНЕСУВАЊЕТО И ИНТЕРВЕНЦИЈАТА ВО УЧИЛИШТАТА ЗА ПОСЕБНО ОБРАЗОВАНИЕ ВО СОЕДИНЕТИТЕ АМЕРИКАНСКИ ДРЖАВИ REFLECTIONS ON BEHAVIORAL CRISES PREVENTION AND INTERVENTION IN SPECIAL EDUCATION SCHOOLS IN THE UNITED STATES Роланд ПАУЛАУСКАС Универзитет Сиаулиаи,Сиаулиаи, Литванија Roland PAULAUSKASSiauliai University,Siauliai, Lithuania Примено: 02.11.2010Прифатено: 02.12.2010UDK: 316.628:159.922.2-053.6(73)159.922.8:37.017(73) Recived: 02.11.2010Accepted: 02.12.2010Review ArticleРезиме Abstract Развојот на цивилизацијата ги направи кри­зи­те неразделен дел од нашиот живот. Ис­ти­те се појавуваат речиси во сите соци­јални струк­тури и организации, вклучувајќи ги и обра­зовните институции. Целите на овој труд се да презентира теоретски модел на нор­­мално, девијантно и антисоцијално одне­су­­вање, да ги дискутира психо-социјалните карак­­теристики на емотивно растроените адо­лесценти, сместени во установи за пре­стој и посебно образование во САД и да ги ана­­лизира најраспространетите кризи во одне­сувањето кај оваа популација, фази на ес­ка­лацијата на кризата и ненасилна пре­вен­ција од кризи и стратегии на интервенција. Ко­рис­тените методи во овој труд вклучуваат пре­г­лед на научна литература, анализи на ста­­тистички информации од различни вла­ди­ни извори, преглед и анализа на сту­дент­ски записи и анализа на искуството на авто­рот поврзано со работата со емотивно рас­трое­ни младинци во училиштата за престој и обра­­зование во САД.Резултатите од ова истражување укажуваат на различните терминологии кои ги кори­стат научниците од различните научни дис­ци­плини при опишување на социјално неа­дек­ватното однесување.Авторот прикажува тео­ретски модел на нормално, девијантно и анти­социјално однесување кое може да го по­добри разбирањето и препознавањето на ри­зични ситуации и однесувања кои водат до сериозни кризи. Анализите на студентски за­писи открива дека повеќето од адо­лес­­це­нтите сместени во специјални училишта за пре­стој и образование се дијагностицирани со неколку ментални здравствени проблеми. Ова налага дека постоечката превентивна нега и образовна парадигма во посебните учи­лишта за образование и престој, треба да се заменат со сеопфатен третман парадигма. Тру­дот исто така ги дискутира позитивните и негативните интервенции при кризи. Мис­ле­њето на авторот е дека сите специјални еду­кативни установи, кои им се на рас­по­ла­гање на емотивно растроените деца, треба да при­фатат еден од ненасилните модели на интер­венција при криза во однесувањето и да развијат и применат менаџментска поли­тика, планови и процедури за справување со кризи. The development of civilization made crises an inseparable part of our lives. Crises manifest themselves in almost all social areas and organizations, including educational institutions. The goals of the article are to present a theoretical model of normal, deviant and antisocial behaviors, and discuss the psycho-social characteristics of emotionally disturbed adolescents situated in a residential special education school in theUnited States. The article also gives an analysis of their most prevalent behavioral crises, escalation stages, as well as nonviolent crisis prevention and intervention strategies. The methods that were used include scientific literature review, analysis of statistical information supplied from different government sources, review and analysis of student records, as well as the author's analytical reflections in working with emotionally disturbed youngsters in residential special education schools in theUnited States.The results of the study indicate that scientists from different fields use different terminology to describe socially nonconforming behaviors. The author presents a theoretical model of normal, deviant and antisocial behavior that could enhance better understanding and identification of high risk situations and conduct leading to serious crises. The analysis of student records revealed that most of the adolescents situated in specialeducation residential schools are diagnosed with a number of mental health problems. This suggests that the currently prevailing care and education paradigm in the special education residential schools should shift to a more comprehensive treatment paradigm. The article also discusses the pros and cons of nonviolent crisis intervention. It is the author's opinion that all special education schools serving children with emotional disorders should adopt one of the nonviolent crisis intervention models and develop and implement crisis management policies, plans and procedures.Клучни зборови: заштита од криза, интер­вен­ција при вербални криза, ненасилна фи­зи­чка интервенција при криза, континуирана еска­лација на кризата, позитивна поддршка на однесувањето. Key words: crisis prevention, verbal crisis intervention, nonviolent physical crisis intervention, continuum of crisis escalation, positive behavior supports. Адреса за коресподенција:Роланд Паулаускас,Универзитет Сиаулиаи, П. Висинскио 25,ЛТ-76352, Сиаулиаи, ЛитванијаE-mail: roland.paulauskas@gmail.com Corresponding addressRoland Paulauskas,Siauliai University, P. Visinskio 25,LT-76352, Siauliai, LithuaniaE-mail: roland.paulauskas@gmail.com

Ethnic conflicts often have a long & bitter history of dispute -- so deep-seated that de-escalation of the conflict without participation of an independent third party does not appear to be possible. This article explores the role & function of these parties in achieving peace by explaining the key terms & classification of different types of third party intervention & comparing the ideals of issue-oriented mediation & relationship-oriented consultation types of intervention. Additionally, the structural framework & macro structure of such conflicts is discussed. More than just intervention, a change in the structural framework in the political & societal areas of the affected regions is required for active conflict transformation. Most ethnopolitical conflicts will not achieve enduring peace until the relationship as well as the conflict issue itself are addressed, & a double strategy of ethnic acknowledgement & national loyalty supported by strong institutional foundations must be pursued. The third party must be competent & acceptable to both sides, & preventive action is critical. External third parties have a special responsibility for the construction of local & regional "peace constituencies" in crisis areas, generally requiring long-term engagement for a lasting peace. L. Kehl

The aim of this cumulative dissertation is to examine the quality and reliability of existing theories bearing particular focus on the subject matters of Solvency II, the accuracy of interest rate forecasts and the historically low interest environment paired with unconventional monetary policy. This empirically-based scientific contribution should hold practical use to asset managers working in the insurance industry due to the results that it provides: put briefly, to act as build a bridge between theory and practice. In times of historically low interest rate phases, one question is often repeated, namely the whys and the wherefores regarding interest rate forecasts. Here, it has been shown that particularly in times of market volatility the precision of these forecasts decreased. Even though it would have held significant importance during such a phase to concentrate on it. The worsening of the asset crisis was not only a result of decreasing yields but also due to a regime change regarding regulatory requirements. Solvency II can be seen as a paradigm change and its introduction underlines the necessity of appropriate capital reserves of insurance companies that already existed. The regulatory framework increased the short- and long-term work of asset managers in the field of capital investment, which resulted in the postulation that conventional life insurance products are – now more than ever – in need of explanation due to their declining guaranteed interest rates. In addition, this has also brought new challenges and a need for rethinking when considering the marketing and realization of (interest) earnings to the industry for the product "life insurance" to be attractive to the customer. Furthermore, the policies have continued to develop in structure, whereby in some cases only contribution guarantees are offered where the guaranteed interest rate does not play a role for individual companies or product offers. These observed correlations can be found in both theoretical and practical considerations. This can especially be said for the evasion of assets with higher risk return profiles as they require a higher amount of capital adequacy obligations under the standard model of Solvency II – Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) and Minimum Capital Requirement (MCR). During the course of time, the importance of asset liability management has once again gained relevance. At present, sovereign bonds issued by members of the European Economic Area or the OECD are to be classified as risk-free. In light of the sovereign debt crisis, an adjustment of the supervisory regulations is worth considering. Insurers already have to intensively address sovereign risks pursuant to Pillar II, i.e. the governance system requirements (Own Risk and Solvency Assessment – ORSA). Additional modules of this thesis are concerned with the accuracy of interest rate forecasts that have yet to be scientifically investigated in this form. The availability of appropriate historical databases served as the basis of the modules. The short end of the interest rate structure curve is especially affected by the current monetary policy of the European Central Bank – both unconventional and disputable – whose impulses are felt in the three-month rate and the forecasts. The research results here found that the direction of the interest rate change – increasing or further declining rates – cannot be unequivocally forecasted due to the increasing volatility during times of historically-unusual low interest rates. Thus, a naïve prognosis delivered as an alternative is not necessarily a disadvantage. However, more important for the insurance industry was the investigation of long-term interest rates, with or without the influence of macro-economic variables. Here, above all an escalation of the situation for German asset managers has developed over time as – in addition to the increase of "flight to safety" for many investors the need of "flight to quality" and the "flight to liquidity" – it has also made German sovereign bonds with a period of ten years and more appear especially attractive despite the historically low yields in an intensifying crisis situation. ; as Ziel dieser kumulativen Dissertation – insbesondere zu den Themen Solvency II, der Güte von Zinsprognosen und dem historischen Niedrigzinsumfeld gepaart mit unkonventioneller Geldpolitik – ist es, bestehende Theorien auf ihre Qualität und Zuverlässigkeit zu überprüfen. Der wissenschaftliche Beitrag basierend auf den empirischen Forschungsleistungen soll aufgrund der erzielten Ergebnisse zusätzlich einen praktischen Nutzen für Assetmanager in der Versicherungsindustrie leisten – kurz: Eine Brücke zwischen Theorie und Praxis zu schlagen. Insbesondere in Zeiten der historischen Niedrigzinsphase stellt(e) sich revolvierend die Frage: Warum und wofür werden Zinsprognosen erstellt? Dabei zeigte sich, dass gerade in volatilen Marktsituationen die Genauigkeit dieser Vorhersagen abnahm, wobei Orientierung in diesen Phasen von außerordentlicher Bedeutung gewesen wäre. Die Verschärfung des Anlagenotstands ergab sich zudem nicht nur durch sinkende Renditen, sondern auch durch den Regimewechsel mit Blick auf die Regulatorik. Solvency II kann als ein Paradigmenwechsel betrachtet werden und unterstreicht nicht erst seit der Einführung die Notwendigkeit einer angemessenen Kapitalausstattung von Versicherungsunternehmen. Diese Rahmenbedingungen verschärften die kurz- bzw. langfristige Arbeit der Assetmanager im Bereich der Kapitalanlage, weshalb zu konstatieren war, dass konventionelle Lebensversicherungsprodukte aufgrund der sinkenden Garantieverzinsung mehr denn je erklärungsbedürftig geworden sind. Zudem resultieren hieraus für die Branche neue Herausforderungen und zusätzliches Umdenken mit Blick auf Vermarktung und Renditeerzielung, um das Produkt 'Lebensversicherung' für Kunden attraktiv zu gestalten. Des Weiteren haben sich die Policen in der Gestalt weiterentwickelt, als dass teilweise nur noch eine Beitragsgarantie gewährt wird und der Garantiezins bei einzelnen Gesellschaften bzw. Produktangeboten keine Rolle mehr spielt. Diese beobachteten Zusammenhänge schlagen sich in praktischen und theoretischen Überlegungen nieder. Dies gilt insbesondere für das Ausweichen in Anlagetitel mit höherem Risiko-Ertrags-Profil, welche jedoch im Standardmodell unter Solvency II mit mehr Solvenzkapital zu hinterlegen sind – SCR und MCR (Minimum Capital Requirement). Die Wichtigkeit des Asset-Liability-Managements hat somit im Zeitablauf noch einmal an Relevanz gewonnen. Bisher werden Staatsanleihen, deren Emittenten Mitglieder des Europäischen Wirtschaftsraums oder der OECD sind, grundsätzlich als risikolos eingestuft. Eine Anpassung der aufsichtsrechtlichen Vorschriften wäre aus dem Blickwinkel der Staatsschuldenkrise durchaus überlegenswert. Versicherer müssen sich jedoch ohnehin im Rahmen der Säule II, also der Anforderungen an das Governance-System (Own Risk and Solvency Assessment – ORSA), intensiv mit den Staatenrisiken auseinandersetzen. Weitere Module dieser wissenschaftlichen Arbeit beschäftigen sich mit der Güte von Zinsprognosen, die in dieser Form so noch nicht wissenschaftlich untersucht wurden. Grundlage dafür war stets die Verfügbarkeit einer geeigneten historischen Datenbasis. Am kurzen Ende der Zinsstrukturkurve spielte dabei insbesondere die aktuelle Geldpolitik der Europäischen Zentralbank – unkonventionell und streitbar zugleich – eine maßgebliche Rolle, welche direkte Impulse sowohl auf den Drei-Monats-Satz als auch die Prognosen hatte. Dabei ergab sich aus den Forschungsergebnissen, dass die Richtung der Zinsänderung – steigende oder weiter sinkende Sätze – aufgrund der zunehmenden Volatilität in Zeiten historisch ungewohnt niedriger Zinsen nicht immer zweifelsfrei vorhergesagt werden konnte. Eine naive Prognose als Alternative gereichte somit keineswegs zum Nachteil. Noch wichtiger für die Versicherungsindustrie war jedoch der untersuchte längerfristige Zins – mit oder ohne Einfluss von makroökonomischer Variablen. Dabei zeigte sich vor allem die Verschärfung der Lage im Zeitablauf für deutsche Assetmanager, da neben der Zunahme der Sicherheitsbedürfnisse vieler Investoren ("flight to safety") auch die Flucht in Qualitätswerte ("flight to quality") und das Zurückziehen in höchstliquide Titel ("flight to liquidity") vor allem deutsche Bundesanleihen mit einer Laufzeit von zehn Jahren und länger trotz der historisch niedrigen Renditen im sich verschärfenden Krisenfall sehr attraktiv erscheinen ließen.

Rumours that the Brexit trade negotiations will stall and ending the Transition may be delayed have accompanied escalation in the virus crisis. This article reviews the evidence on the progression of the virus and its economic consequences and concludes with hope that a return to normality in the second half of the year will allow Brexit negotiations to proceed on-course.

Foreword : a call to action by the co-chairs -- Letter from the convening organizations -- Executive summary -- Defining the challenge -- Leadership : the indispensable ingredient -- Early warning : assessing risks and triggering action -- Early prevention : engaging before the crisis -- Preventive diplomacy : halting and reversing escalation -- Employing military options -- International action : strengthening norms and institutions -- Summary of recommendations. ; Mode of access: Internet.

This paper combines a review of the strategic security of European countries in 2017, and the creation - on the basis of the international scenario method - of short-, medium- and longterm forecasts. The authors address both the nature of armed conflicts (including the so-called 'frozen conflicts') and the escalation of terrorist acts. Also, the issue of the immigration crisis has been highlighted as causing both the rise of radical public sentiments and being a 'source' of the smuggling of people (including terrorists) and goods (including weapons which are later used in attacks). ; Treścią publikacji jest dokonanie przeglądu strategicznego bezpieczeństwa europejskiego państw europejskich w 2017 roku i stworzenie - na wzór metody scenariuszy międzynarodowych - prognoz krótko-, średnio- oraz długoterminowych. Autorzy zajęli się zarówno wydarzeniami mającymi charakter konfliktów zbrojnych (w tym także tzw. "zamrożonymi konfliktami"), a także problemem nasilających się aktów terrorystycznych. Zwrócono także uwagę na kwestię kryzysu imigracyjnego, powodującego zarówno wzrost nastrojów radykalnych, ale będącego również "źródłem" przemytu osób (w tym terrorystów) oraz towarów (w tym broni, wykorzystywanej następnie w zamachach).

The emergency caused by the escalation in the COVID-19 pandemic, which became widespread starting on 31 January 2020, put a strain on the Italian National Health System and forced purchasing centres to deviate from the ordinary general principles dictated by current legislation. The aim of this paper is to describe how Spedali Civili Hospital in Brescia challenged the crisis, structured itself optimally, followed simplified procedures, launched new processes, and opened up more Intensive Care Unit beds to accommodate the high number of COVID cases. From an analysis of the equipment variation in terms of increased purchases, subsequent installations, and tests carried out compared with the pre-pandemic period, we report the difficulties that hospitals had to face in the first phase of the pandemic and how they were able to respond to their needs. Our data clearly displayed how the pandemic situation led to a deep internal reorganisation and that the drafting of simpler, effective, and adaptable procedures represents a first key element to ensure receptivity and responsiveness in the management of ordinary and non-ordinary events such as this pandemic condition.

The directions of scientific research in the field of operational use of the forces of the security and defense sector of the state are considered. These areas are associated with the military-political situation, which is developing both in Ukraine and around it. The article analyzes the armed confrontation in the East of Ukraine with the assumption of its possible escalation. Regarding the positional combat operations continuing in the East of Ukraine, the urgency of establishing a connection between the cause of the emergence of this form of action (with its inherent features) and their stable duration and the continuing threat of their escalation is indicated. The article expresses fears of the emergence and development of crisis events in potentially crisis regions of Ukraine with their further escalation. An assumption is made about the development of these events according to the scheme: "provoking an internal political conflict of a regional scale" ‒ "an attempt to destroy the foundations of public order" ‒ "an extreme aggravation of an internal political conflict against the background of mass riots" ‒ "provoking the emergence and escalation of an internal armed conflict" ‒ "provoking civil war" ‒ "the emergence of an armed conflict of an international nature (possibly a local or regional war with the participation of Ukraine as a result of the intervention of external forces " ‒ "the introduction of peacekeeping forces into Ukraine". The urgency of the study of the driving forces of these events, their organizational forms, as well as the forms and ways of realizing their intentions at each stage is substantiated. The relevance of the development of a complex of operations of the security and defense sector of the state, as well as the appropriate methods of their implementation with an adequate response at each stage of the development of crisis events, is indicated. The article provides and analyzes examples of domestic developments in the field of military art with reference to the corresponding accumulated international experience. ; Окреслено актуальні напрями наукових досліджень у сфері оперативного застосування сил сектору безпеки і оборони держави, які пов'язуються із суспільно-політичною обстановкою, що складається в Україні, та геополітичною ситуацією навколо неї. Здійснено аналіз збройного протиборства на сході України з припущенням його можливої ескалації. Наведено і проаналізовано приклади вітчизняних напрацювань у сфері воєнного мистецтва, що пов'язані з концепціями застосування військ (сил).

The directions of scientific research in the field of operational use of the forces of the security and defense sector of the state are considered. These areas are associated with the military-political situation, which is developing both in Ukraine and around it. The article analyzes the armed confrontation in the East of Ukraine with the assumption of its possible escalation. Regarding the positional combat operations continuing in the East of Ukraine, the urgency of establishing a connection between the cause of the emergence of this form of action (with its inherent features) and their stable duration and the continuing threat of their escalation is indicated. The article expresses fears of the emergence and development of crisis events in potentially crisis regions of Ukraine with their further escalation. An assumption is made about the development of these events according to the scheme: "provoking an internal political conflict of a regional scale" ‒ "an attempt to destroy the foundations of public order" ‒ "an extreme aggravation of an internal political conflict against the background of mass riots" ‒ "provoking the emergence and escalation of an internal armed conflict" ‒ "provoking civil war" ‒ "the emergence of an armed conflict of an international nature (possibly a local or regional war with the participation of Ukraine as a result of the intervention of external forces " ‒ "the introduction of peacekeeping forces into Ukraine". The urgency of the study of the driving forces of these events, their organizational forms, as well as the forms and ways of realizing their intentions at each stage is substantiated. The relevance of the development of a complex of operations of the security and defense sector of the state, as well as the appropriate methods of their implementation with an adequate response at each stage of the development of crisis events, is indicated. The article provides and analyzes examples of domestic developments in the field of military art with reference to the corresponding accumulated international experience. ; Окреслено актуальні напрями наукових досліджень у сфері оперативного застосування сил сектору безпеки і оборони держави, які пов'язуються із суспільно-політичною обстановкою, що складається в Україні, та геополітичною ситуацією навколо неї. Здійснено аналіз збройного протиборства на сході України з припущенням його можливої ескалації. Наведено і проаналізовано приклади вітчизняних напрацювань у сфері воєнного мистецтва, що пов'язані з концепціями застосування військ (сил).

As Germany prepares to take on the chair of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (osce) in 2016 in the midst of Europe's worst security crisis in a generation, crisis management is in the foreground—with a focus on containing risk and preventing escalation through diplomacy and sanctions against Russia. Yet Berlin is also fundamentally re-shaping its foreign and security policy across the board. Ultimately, Germany's goal must be to restore a peaceful European security order: not on the terms of Vladimir Putin, but on the basis of the principles enshrined in the osce.

В статье рассматриваются попытки, предпринимаемые органами государственной власти по отношению к выводу из кризисной ситуации политической системы Украинского государства, которые, главным образом, осуществляются в экономической, военно стратегической и внутриполитической сферах. ; In the article of Koryakina Alexandra Andreyevna "Modern Ukrainian State Political System Crisis Threat of Escalation and the Peculiarities of its Elimination" the attempts, taken by the Ukrainian official government authorities with the purpose of leading the country out of political system crisis, are examined. These attempts, as it was defined, are taken mostly in the spheres of economy, domestic policy and military strategy.