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AbstractThe overall objective of business continuity management (BCM) systems is to provide guidance and analytical subcomponents on how to assess and manage risk and sustain operations when facing a disruptive event. Current BCM practices largely follow a standard structure for formal planning processes and risk‐assessment activities. An underlying assumption in standard practices is that systems can be decomposed in subsystems in a meaningful way, as they are tractable and data are available to predict the system's future functionality. However, the reality is much more complex in our volatile world. Standard BCM approaches do not pay adequate attention to the treatment of uncertainties. Thus, they fall short of addressing the complexity of operations involved with emergencies and crisis. Lack of focus on uncertainty hampers the ability of BCM systems to provide sufficient support for decision making in highly uncertain situations. Dealing with such situations necessitates a shift from a defensive risk‐management approach, grounded on an illusion of control and accountability, to a proactive stance based on resilience thinking. Responding to this call, we use concepts from the resilience engineering (RE) field and link them to different components of a BCM system. We develop a novel BCM framework and identify a set of resilience influence factors to enhance resilience in BCM systems. We use a case‐example, hosted by a leading organization in a second‐line emergency response operation in Norway to reflect on the application of a suggested BCM framework.

The civil war in Syria caused millions of people to become refugees in neighboring countries and Europe. Government capacity and the availability of resources are crucial for managing a refugee crisis effectively; however, they may not be sufficient in all circumstances. There must be a healthy relationship between the host government and refugees for government agencies to control the refugees and manage their needs. Government legitimacy and trust are crucial for refugee compliance with government policies. This article examines the case of refugees from Kobani in Turkey and provides evidence for understanding the role of government legitimacy in managing a refugee crisis. The data for this article were collected through qualitative interviews and focus groups with government officials and refugees. Two important factors shaped the refugees' perceptions of the Turkish government. First, ethnic conflict and the political circumstances in Turkey shaped some refugees' opinions of the Turkish government. Second, some refugees embraced their host community's perceptions of the Turkish government. The findings from this research have important political implications. Countries experiencing ethnic, religious, or racial conflicts are likely to face challenges regarding refugee compliance with government policies.

INTRODUCTION: Over the past 30 years, south-central Somalia, Puntland (north-east) and Somaliland (north-west) have experienced recurring drought- and conflict-related crises. By the end of 2018, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the region had reached 2.6 million; most were displaced to larger towns under government control, where humanitarian assistance was more accessible. Understanding the drivers of crisis-related displacement can provide insight into how responses can best manage and respond to displacement to prevent downstream morbidity and mortality. We aimed to explore the temporal patterns and crisis-related risk factors for population displacement in Somalia from 2016 to 2018, a period of severe drought. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study of secondary panel data stratified by district and month. The study population included all people in the region from 2016 to 2018. The outcome was defined as the number of new out-migrating internally displaced persons (IDPs) per district-month. Exposure variables included armed conflict, rainfall, food insecurity and food security services. Lags at one, two and three months were generated to explore possible delayed effects. All univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted using negative binomial regression models with mixed effects incorporating the district as a random effect. RESULTS: From 2016 to 2018, the proportion of IDPs increased from 9% to 25% in Somalia, Puntland and Somaliland. We observed strong associations between IDP out-migration rate and failed rains at a three-month lag, food insecurity at a one-month lag, and the presence of therapeutic food services with no lag. IDP out-migration rate was not associated with armed conflict intensity, and cash- and rations-based food security services. DISCUSSION: This study identified temporal, and socially and biologically plausible associations between key crisis-related risk factors and displacement in Somalia. The findings suggest a sequence of events spanning a few months, ...

El tema del presente número especial el de los eventos críticos, extraordinarios y disruptivos; de los sucesos y situaciones que interrumpen un determinado orden social, ya sean de índole ambiental, tecnológico, financiero, político o social, y que tienen un impacto grande en la sociedad involucrada. Nos proponemos aquí introducir al lector cómo se puede abordar este objeto de estudio desde la antropología social. El problema de los desastres y de las crisis no es de ahora, ni es exclusivo de América Latina. No obstante, en la región han aumentado dramáticamente los impactos de los desastres de origen hidrometeorológico y geológico en el último siglo (BID 2010; UNISDR y Corporación OSSO 2013) y muchos países tienen experiencia histórica y reciente de profundas crisis sociales, políticas y económicas. Son eventos complejos y con un alto impacto social, político y económico que representan un desafío muy grande para las sociedades para gestionar, mitigar y reducir. Como tales, los estudios científicos sobre la problemática son indispensables para comprender tanto causas como efectos y así desarrollar soluciones sostenibles. En este número especial se presentan cuatro artículos que presentan casos empíricos de América Latina, con énfasis en Argentina y Brasil, que demuestran cual puede ser el aporte antropológico para analizar los eventos críticos, antes, durante y después. El número no aspira dar una visión exhaustiva de la antropología de desastres y crisis en América Latina, sino dar cuenta de un campo de investigación en crecimiento en la región que ya está haciendo importantes contribuciones, tanto a los estudios multidisciplinarios de los eventos críticos, como a las políticas de reducción de riesgo y de gestión de crisis y desastres. ; This special issue focuses on the phenomena of disasters and crises, and how such extraordinary and disruptive events can be understood from the perspective of social anthropology. Critical events are not unique to Latin America, yet the impact of hydro-meteorological and geological disasters have dramatically increased in the region in the last century (IDB 2010, UNISDR and Corporation OSSO 2013) and many countries have historical and recent experience of profound social, political and economic crises. They are complex challenges for societies to manage, mitigate and reduce, which is why social science has a major contribution to make in understanding both the causes and the effects, and forward sustainable solutions. This special issue presents four articles based on empirical cases from Latin America, with an emphasis on Argentina and Brazil, which demonstrate the anthropological contribution to the understanding of critical events. The authors make no claim to provide a complete view of the anthropology of disasters and crises in Latin America, but rather to account for a growing research field in the region, which is already making important contributions to multidisciplinary studies of critical events, and to the policy development of disaster risk reduction and crisis management.

El tema del presente número especial el de los eventos críticos, extraordinarios y disruptivos; de los sucesos y situaciones que interrumpen un determinado orden social, ya sean de índole ambiental, tecnológico, financiero, político o social, y que tienen un impacto grande en la sociedad involucrada. Nos proponemos aquí introducir al lector cómo se puede abordar este objeto de estudio desde la antropología social. El problema de los desastres y de las crisis no es de ahora, ni es exclusivo de América Latina. No obstante, en la región han aumentado dramáticamente los impactos de los desastres de origen hidrometeorológico y geológico en el último siglo (BID 2010; UNISDR y Corporación OSSO 2013) y muchos países tienen experiencia histórica y reciente de profundas crisis sociales, políticas y económicas. Son eventos complejos y con un alto impacto social, político y económico que representan un desafío muy grande para las sociedades para gestionar, mitigar y reducir. Como tales, los estudios científicos sobre la problemática son indispensables para comprender tanto causas como efectos y así desarrollar soluciones sostenibles. En este número especial se presentan cuatro artículos que presentan casos empíricos de América Latina, con énfasis en Argentina y Brasil, que demuestran cual puede ser el aporte antropológico para analizar los eventos críticos, antes, durante y después. El número no aspira dar una visión exhaustiva de la antropología de desastres y crisis en América Latina, sino dar cuenta de un campo de investigación en crecimiento en la región que ya está haciendo importantes contribuciones, tanto a los estudios multidisciplinarios de los eventos críticos, como a las políticas de reducción de riesgo y de gestión de crisis y desastres. ; This special issue focuses on the phenomena of disasters and crises, and how such extraordinary and disruptive events can be understood from the perspective of social anthropology. Critical events are not unique to Latin America, yet the impact of hydro-meteorological and geological disasters have dramatically increased in the region in the last century (IDB 2010, UNISDR and Corporation OSSO 2013) and many countries have historical and recent experience of profound social, political and economic crises. They are complex challenges for societies to manage, mitigate and reduce, which is why social science has a major contribution to make in understanding both the causes and the effects, and forward sustainable solutions. This special issue presents four articles based on empirical cases from Latin America, with an emphasis on Argentina and Brazil, which demonstrate the anthropological contribution to the understanding of critical events. The authors make no claim to provide a complete view of the anthropology of disasters and crises in Latin America, but rather to account for a growing research field in the region, which is already making important contributions to multidisciplinary studies of critical events, and to the policy development of disaster risk reduction and crisis management.

Although migration has always been a timeless and volatile phenomenon, modern transnational movements of people have become a dominant topic of interest by constantly acquiring new characteristics that modify their evolutionary process. Europe is a geographical area that has been significantly affected by recent changes as a result of the evolution of migration flows of the last 30 years. The urgent need to initially understand and later implement evidence-based policies in order to sufficiently manage the migration phenomenon can be considered as the basic spark that led to the scientific blast of the 21st century, focusing on the gradual development of migration studies. One of the most notable efforts of the scientific community was the use of the comparison method to examine, understand, and in some cases even forecast the characteristics of specific migration case studies, thereby forming the backbone of comparative migration research in general. Greece, due to its geographical position, has been unintentionally positioned, many times, inside the so called "ring of fire", as result of multiple factors and disastrous events that evolved mainly in its neighbouring countries, forcing massive, irregular migration flows to its external borders. The outbreak of the Albanian exodus in the early 1990s and the recent refugee flows of 2015 can be described as two major migration crises that have occurred in Greek's contemporary history, making their comparison a fruitful example of the potential capabilities of the above-mentioned method, contributing to a holistic study of the migration phenomenon in Greece.

One reason why special German broadcast programs like "ARD Brennpunkt" and "ZDF spezial" fulfill their function in crisis communication is that politicians appear in them . In the course of an interdisciplinary research project on media disturbances, 164 of such special broadcasts from 2015 and 2016 were analyzed and 40 interviews with participants were conducted, eleven of those with national and local politicians . It is their roles that are elaborated here . Triangulating the conducted interviews on the one hand and textual analyses on the other, a typology of political role figurations can be presented . Political actors assumed the following roles: (1) "representative of the sovereign", either as a statesperson or as responsive and palpable; (2) "representative of the party", bringing forth the agenda of their respective party or subverting it as a deviator; (3) "communicator of exclusive knowledge", underlining researched facts; (4) authorized expert, driving towards sobriety; (5) "evaluator", emphasizing normative perspectives and (6) "crisis manager", underlining their problem solving competence or even, within the sub-role of "local caretaker", their personal engagement . The roles are part of a crisis communication that aims at calming and orientating the public .

The discovery in September 2015 of diesel emissions software cheat technology in Volkswagen (VW) cars initiated a process of organisational crisis management and damage limitation by VW, reflected in the contemporaneous intensive production of public information statements, including press releases, statements to shareholders and investors, and transcripts of oral evidence. Through taking stock of a selection of these public information statements, this article examines the organisational communication management strategies employed to respond to the crisis situation, making an integrated use of attribution, crisis management, and information orientation theories as an interpretive lens. An interpretivist, hermeneutic approach was used to carry out qualitative content analysis on selected statements issued by VW. The analysis reveals that there is a connection between statements relating to attribution and statements relating to information orientation, at the time of the crisis and in preparing future action. Priorities for action form part of the overall crisis management and image restoration approach. Proposed changes in information orientation constitute a key dimension of the company's public response to mitigate the offensiveness of the crisis. The analysis performed demonstrates the applicability of the proposed integration of attribution, crisis management, image restoration, and information orientation theories to better understand and explain how large corporations respond publicly to organisational crisis episodes, more specifically the ways in which attributions, crisis management, and image restoration strategies are related to aspects of information orientation as both components and consequences of the crisis.

Flow-of-funds accounts are a component of the national accounts system reporting the financial transactions and balance sheets of the economy, classified by sectors and financial instruments. The biggest financial crisis in a lifetime has shown how important it is to have a deep knowledge of the financial balance sheets of the main sectors of the economy and the financial flows that take place between them. This type of information is essential for a proper understanding of the transmission of monetary and financial shocks through the economy and to identify macroeconomic imbalances that could undermine financial stability. This publication takes a flow-of-funds perspective of the financial crisis. The book illustrates the broad range of interlinkages between the financial side and the real side of the economy and highlights the role of balance sheet variables and sectoral balance sheet positions in the evolution of the financial crisis, covering the United States, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, Japan and Slovenia. The authors also reflect on the use of financial data in the context of diagnosing and addressing excessive macroeconomic imbalances in Europe and on the use of financial accounts to underpin the analysis of systemic risks in the financial system. In this respect, the flow of funds offers a framework for looking at the right kind of questions when policy-makers consider how to prevent, manage and resolve financial crises.

La crisi pandemica ha portato molti osservatori a ipotesi paradigmatiche di cambiamento in campo culturale. Il saggio cerca di ricercare la fattibilità giuridica e normativa, de iure condito, di tali scenari futuri. In primo luogo, rileva che tale cambiamento consentirebbe l'applicazione dei principi europei e costituzionali di sussidiarietà orizzontale e verticale, nonché il rilancio delle politiche territoriali e integrate, in particolare quelle di natura culturale. Infine, vengono posti al vaglio possibili strumenti di governance partecipativa delle politiche di gestione culturale del territorio, quali fondamenti di comunità. Certamente bisognerà approfondire meglio le premesse, le analisi e le tesi dell'argomento qui esaminato. Gli eventi futuri possono indicare se le attuali premesse sistemiche e macroeconomiche incerte legate alla situazione di emergenza fossero corrette. Date queste premesse, si è cercato di fornire soluzioni attuabili nel quadro delle coordinate offerte dall'attuale ordinamento per rispondere con tempestività ed efficacia "alle sfide del cambiamento". The pandemic crisis led many observers to paradigmatic hypotheses of change in the cultural field. The essay tries to research the legal and regulatory feasibility, de iure condito, of such future scenarios. Firstly, it notes that such change would allow the application of European and constitutional principles of horizontal and vertical subsidiarity as well as the revitalization of territorial and integrated policies, in particular, those of cultural nature. Finally, possible participatory governance instruments of territorial cultural management policies, as community foundations, are placed under scrutiny. Certainly, the premises, analyzes and theses of the topic here examined will need to be better explored. Future events may indicate whether the current uncertain systemic and macro-economic premises linked to the emergency situation have been correct. Given these premises, the attempt was to provide feasible solutions within the framework of the coordinates offered by the current legal system in order to respond promptly and effectively "to the challenges of change".

IntroductionAlthough there is a considerable amount of work on the effect of catastrophes on elections, we still do not have much work on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on them. This article focuses on the case of the Madrilenian regional election of 2021, looking for the causes of the improvement of the ruling party's results, the Popular Party (PP), which went from having 22.23% of the vote share in 2019 to 44.76% in 2021, and more concretely to the role that COVID-19 had on this. This election is especially interesting for this matter because the main issue was the question of how to manage the pandemic: The right-wing parties (and mainly the PP) criticized the restrictions imposed by the central government, led by the socialist Pedro Sánchez, while the left-wing parties defended them.MethodsThe article runs separate analyses at the aggregate and individual levels. At the aggregate level, it uses municipal and district-level data with electoral and socio-demographic variables; at the individual level, it uses a post-electoral survey.ResultsThere was a higher improvement in PP's results in areas with higher increase in the turnout rate, and both individual and aggregate-level data show that this improvement was also led by upper-class and young voters. However, there is no significant association with the cumulated cases of COVID-19 in the area.DiscussionThe article contributes to the understanding of the 2021 Madrilenian regional election, showing that, despite the politicization of the pandemic, there was no relationship between how hardly were the areas hit by the pandemic and the outcome of the election at the aggregated-level.

Abstract. This study proposes a role-playing experiment to explore the value of modern
impact-based weather forecasts on the decision-making process to (i) issue
warnings and manage the official emergency response under uncertainty and
(ii) communicate and trigger protective action at different levels of the
warning system across Europe. Here, flood or strong-wind game simulations
seek to represent the players' realistic uncertainties and dilemmas
embedded in the real-time forecasting-warning processes. The game was first
tested in two scientific workshops in Finland and France, where European
researchers, developers, forecasters and civil protection representatives
played the simulations. Two other game sessions were organized afterwards
(i) with undergraduate university students in France and (ii) with Finnish
stakeholders involved in the management of hazardous weather emergencies.
First results indicate that multi-model developments and crowdsourcing tools
increase the level of confidence in the decision-making under pressure. We
found that the role-playing approach facilitates interdisciplinary
cooperation and argumentation on emergency response in a fun and interactive
manner. The ANYCaRE experiment was proposed, therefore, as a valuable learning
tool to enhance participants' understanding of the complexities and
challenges met by various actors in weather-related emergency management.

International audience ; This study proposes a role-playing experiment to explore the value of modern impact-based weather forecasts on the decision-making process to (i) issue warnings and manage the official emergency response under uncertainty and (ii) communicate and trigger protective action at different levels of the warning system across Europe. Here, flood or strong-wind game simulations seek to represent the players' realistic uncertainties and dilemmas embedded in the real-time forecasting-warning processes. The game was first tested in two scientific workshops in Finland and France, where European researchers, developers, forecasters and civil protection representatives played the simulations. Two other game sessions were organized afterwards (i) with undergraduate university students in France and (ii) with Finnish stakeholders involved in the management of hazardous weather emergencies. First results indicate that multi-model developments and crowdsourcing tools increase the level of confidence in the decision-making under pressure. We found that the role-playing approach facilitates interdisciplinary cooperation and argumentation on emergency response in a fun and interactive manner. The ANYCaRE experiment was proposed, therefore, as a valuable learning tool to enhance participants' understanding of the complexities and challenges met by various actors in weather-related emergency management.

International audience ; This study proposes a role-playing experiment to explore the value of modern impact-based weather forecasts on the decision-making process to (i) issue warnings and manage the official emergency response under uncertainty and (ii) communicate and trigger protective action at different levels of the warning system across Europe. Here, flood or strong-wind game simulations seek to represent the players' realistic uncertainties and dilemmas embedded in the real-time forecasting-warning processes. The game was first tested in two scientific workshops in Finland and France, where European researchers, developers, forecasters and civil protection representatives played the simulations. Two other game sessions were organized afterwards (i) with undergraduate university students in France and (ii) with Finnish stakeholders involved in the management of hazardous weather emergencies. First results indicate that multi-model developments and crowdsourcing tools increase the level of confidence in the decision-making under pressure. We found that the role-playing approach facilitates interdisciplinary cooperation and argumentation on emergency response in a fun and interactive manner. The ANYCaRE experiment was proposed, therefore, as a valuable learning tool to enhance participants' understanding of the complexities and challenges met by various actors in weather-related emergency management.