Suchergebnisse

Relevance of the dissertation is determined by the object of research – the influence of logistical factors on transport flows distribution. The growth of world economics, business globalization, progress in technology skills extends the distances between geographical points of raw materials resources, manufacturers and consumers. Due to the membership in the European Union (EU) Lithuania has got new opportunities for international trade growth, and all the Eastern Baltic countries have become the buffer region for the EU trading with the countries of the Eastern Europe and Asia. A proper transport policy and infrastructure development would increase significantly the GNP in warehousing, transport and distribution sectors. Forecasting of potential transport flows according to logistical requirements of freight suppliers is most important for transport network optimization. Scientific problem. Contemporary transport engineering theory approaches the peculiarities of transport flows formation too narrowly, only as an analysis of internal factors determining freight flows. There is no analysis of external factors. Many researchers assume that transport flows are determined only by the existing transport network and its characteristics. Other researchers consider transport flows as a result of logistic elements only. The estimating of internal and external logistical factors provides a possibility to forecast the transport flows. Aim of the research is to create a model of logistical factors influence on transport flows distribution. Seeking to meet this aim, the author of the dissertation has solved the following tasks: 1. To make an analysis of the theory provided by Lithuanian and foreign researchers concerning the common interaction of logistics and transport, as well as to point out the advantages and disadvantages in the approaches and hypotheses of many authors, and to propose own conclusions. 2. To create a model of logistical factors and their indicators, which determine transport flows distribution in the transport network. 3. To make empirical research of indices of logistical factors in Lithuanian case. Scientific novelty of the research 1. The analysis of the research level of the scientific problem shows a very narrow theoretical view of determining transport flows. Many authors analyze internal factors only and do not estimate logistical needs of consignors and consignees. 2. The created new models determine transport flows and freight flows in transport network by internal and external specific logistical factors as well. 3. The results of empirical research of external factors confirm the created new models and provide a new interpretation and theoretical view of regularities of freight flows formation. Direct influence on basic transportation process characteristics and control is exercised by clients of transport companies. The basic attitudes for defending 1 The advantages and disadvantages of approaches of numerous researchers on logistic and transportation functions. 2 The models determining distribution of transport flows according to logistical factors. 3 The conclusions of empirical research of logistical factors' influence in Lithuanian case. The significance of the research. Theories proposed by many authors on transport and logistic functioning and interaction are analyzed, and a new point of theoretical view is given. The created models would be fit for forecasting of transport flows and planning of investments in transport infrastructure. The models would help the government, transport and logistics companies to make strategic decisions for development projects. Results of empirical research, which prove theoretical models are important for transport and logistic service providers and their customers for better common understanding and common activities. Methodology of the research is based on regression and correlative analysis, forecasting, as well as on market survey and mathematical modeling. Approbation of the work. Main theses of the dissertation were approbated in 3 scientific published works and 14 scientific conferences papers. Dissertation's structure. The work consists of introduction, three chapters, conclusions and a list of literature (123 scientific works). The amount of the work is: 108 pages, 61 figures and 20 tables. The work includes 6 appendixes. Conclusions The theoretical analysis of logistics influence on transport flows distribution concepts by many researchers, the mathematical modeling of transport flows determination factors and empirical research to give the following conclusions: 1. Many scientists explore logistics and transport by different concepts, however there are no special investigations of logistical impact on transport flows distribution in their works. The analysis of scientific works shows a dual aspect of transport flows distribution. The first theory maintains that technological engineering solutions determine transport flows; the second theory considers that they are determined by logistical factors such as: 1) added value; 2) minimization of logistics costs; 3) customer service. 2. The supporters of technological approach focus the attention on mathematical modeling of freight flows in transport network, nodes and links, as well as logistical chains. According to this point of view, physical characteristics of links and nodes only give possibility to solve the task of freight flows distribution. The scientific problem is that physical characteristics do not suffice for the right solution of this task. It is important to find and estimate external logistical factors. 3. It is important to estimate that transport flows formation is determined in long-term period according to the requirements of manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers and consumers. The trade centralization is one of the basic elements in formation of logistical channels and distribution centers, and transport flows of course. 4. The mathematical model of transport flows distribution is created here. The model gives peculiarities of freight flows distribution according to estimation of economical, juridical and physical parameters of nodes and links. If a logistical subsystem of the given sub-region does not constitute the entire goods traffic channel from the consignor to the consignee, but it is a constituent part of the entire logistical channel from the consignor to the consignee, then the flow traffic goods through that sub-region will be dependent not only on the characteristics of the logistical channel existing in the sub-region's logistical system, but it will also depend on other regions, the logistical systems of which are involved in the common logistical channel. The minimization of the characteristics of any element may cause the minimization of the characteristics of the entire logistical channel as well as the loss of its competitive abilities. 5. The model of shipment grouping according to peculiarities of transport flows and logistic requirements is created. The model enables the estimating of characteristics of freight origins and destination points and forecasting of grouped shipment routes. 6. The survey shows dual approach to transport flows distribution as well as theoretical analysis. Transport flows are distributed according to logistic strategy of transport service consumers and technological solutions, and implementations of providers as well. The survey demonstrates that transport companies are not only 'sellers' or 'providers' of transport services. They are logistical partners of transport service consumers. The strategic partnership of trading and transport companies determines in many cases the formation of transport flows in Lithuania. According forecast of 5 % yearly trade growth, freight volume by road and rail in Lithuania will increase to 133.6 million tons in year 2015. 7. The basic logistical factors determining the distribution of transport flows in Lithuania according to the survey are these: geography of consumers markets, geography of basic transport nodes, structures of logistical channels, perspective of urban development, shortest paths, political and anti-criminal security of transit, grouping of goods, national factor.