Modeling the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in the city of Pontianak
Pontianak is one of the cities in the globe hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. Therefore, an effort to assess the hazard of the pandemic on a local scale is critical. This study implements the SEIR model to evaluate the dynamics of the case in the city and determine the reproduction rate that must be achieved by the local government so that the NHS will not be collapse. The modeling uses two scenarios: without and with maximum intervention. The simulation results show that the death cases in the city due to Covid-19 could reach 21,588 persons without an intervention. On the contrary, the death cases can be reduced to only 20 persons with a maximum intervention. Based on the capacity of the isolation room available in the city's hospitals, the intervention process must reduce the transmission rate to below 1.05 so that all critical cases can be handled.