Suchergebnisse

The main goal of this paper is to discuss the dynamics of public debt servicing – both domestic and foreign – in Zambia, tracing the trends, reforms and challenges over the period from 1964 to 2015. The paper shows that the exceptional rise in public debt servicing obligations in Zambia over the period under review has been principally due to high domestic and foreign interest rates, frequent debt rescheduling at commercial rates, and capitalisation of non-liquidated service obligations at commercial rates. Also revealed in the paper is the fact that prior to 2005, Zambia experienced severe public debt servicing problems which eased after 2006 owing to debt relief initiatives and an economic rebound. Among the government debt service reforms discussed in the paper are structural adjustments in foreign exchange management, fiscal and monetary reforms, and aggressive engagement of traditional creditors. Primary among the identified challenges of public debt servicing in Zambia was the insistent economic crises that dogged the country during the study period. Notwithstanding the current public debt service sustainability and remarkable economic performance that characterise the country today, the paper found that the recent contraction of nonconcessional loans by the state poses a threat to debt service sustainability in future. Hence, the paper recommends, among other things, for aligning of public sector infrastructure spending with revenues to ensure budget sustainability, and to continue diversifying the economy to minimise the impact of external commodity price shocks on the economy. ; The main goal of this paper is to discuss the dynamics of public debt servicing – both domestic and foreign – in Zambia, tracing the trends, reforms and challenges over the period from 1964 to 2015. The paper shows that the exceptional rise in public debt servicing obligations in Zambia over the period under review has been principally due to high domestic and foreign interest rates, frequent debt rescheduling at commercial rates, and capitalisation of non-liquidated service obligations at commercial rates. Also revealed in the paper is the fact that prior to 2005, Zambia experienced severe public debt servicing problems which eased after 2006 owing to debt relief initiatives and an economic rebound. Among the government debt service reforms discussed in the paper are structural adjustments in foreign exchange management, fiscal and monetary reforms, and aggressive engagement of traditional creditors. Primary among the identified challenges of public debt servicing in Zambia was the insistent economic crises that dogged the country during the study period. Notwithstanding the current public debt service sustainability and remarkable economic performance that characterise the country today, the paper found that the recent contraction of nonconcessional loans by the state poses a threat to debt service sustainability in future. Hence, the paper recommends, among other things, for aligning of public sector infrastructure spending with revenues to ensure budget sustainability, and to continue diversifying the economy to minimise the impact of external commodity price shocks on the economy.

Dužnički financijski instrumenti su specifične zbog komponente dospijeća koju sadržavaju te stoga konvencionalni pristupi u procjeni njihovih volatilnost mogu biti neprimjereni. Rad je usmjeren na modeliranje i prognoziranje volatilnosti cijene dužničkih vrijednosnih papira uzimajući u obzir komponentu njihovog dospijeća. U radu se uzima u obzir ovisnost volatilnosti dužničkog vrijednosnog papira o njegovom dospijeću i predlaže jednostavna i primjenjiva tehnike procjene volatilnosti uz željeni interval pouzdanosti. Korištenjem predloženog pristupa u radu su provedene procjene volatilnosti dužničkih vrijednosnih papira denominiranih eurima kao i u kunama koje je izdala Republika Hrvatska. ; Debt-based financial instruments are specific due to the maturity component and conventional approaches in estimating their volatility may not be applicable. This paper focuses on modeling and forecasting price volatility of sovereign debt instruments while taking into account their maturity. In doing so we propose a simple and useful technique for obtaining the desired confidence of volatility estimates. The proposed approach provides price volatility estimates for debt instruments issued by Croatian government denominated in HRK and in EUR.

U ovom radu istražuje se odnos između deviznih rezervi (FER) i inozemnog zaduživanja (FB) u okviru upravljanja kapitalnim tokovima. Da bi se istražio ovaj odnos i ispitao učinak kontrole kapitala na devizne pričuve i inozemne dugove za 25 zemalja u razvoju tijekom razdoblja 1985. - 2019.godine, primjenjena su dva pristupa: model autoregresije panelnih vektora (PVAR) i tradicionalni model potražnje deviznih pričuva. Rezultati pokazuju negativnu povezanost između FER-a i FB-a, a smjer uzročnosti je od dugova prema deviznim pričuvama. Kontrola kapitala, kao uspješna politika za ograničavanje kratkoročnih tokova, ne utječe na akumuliranje deviznih pričuva i, suprotno, smanjuje kratkoročne vanjske dugove. Korištenje neto inozemne imovine umjesto deviznih rezervi ukazuje na različite učinke kontrole kapitala i stoga se nameće pitanje o mogućnosti točne procjene deviznih pričuva. ; The study explores the relationship between foreign exchange reserves (FER) and foreign borrowing (FB) within the framework of the management of capital flows. To investigate this relationship and examine the effect of capital control on foreign exchange reserves and external debt of two approaches are applied, the panel vector autoregression model (PVAR) and a traditional model of the reserve demand for 25 emerging countries over the period 1985-2019. The results show a negative association between FER and FB; the direction of the causality was from debts to reserves. Capital controls, as an instrument to reduce the short-term inflows, fail to restrict the accumulation of exchange reserves and conversely, succeed in limiting the recourse to foreign borrowing. Net foreign assets replacing foreign exchange reserves highlights different impacts of capital controls and raise the issue on a correct evaluation of foreign exchange reserves.

Cilj ovog rada je ispitati odrednice javnog duga u zemljama zapadnog Balkana, s naglaskom na učinke gospodarskog rasta i socijalnih izdataka. Studija pokriva razdoblje od 2006. do 2017. godine i primjenjujemo dinamičku panel analizu, korištenjem diferenciranog i sistemskog GMM procjenitelja. Rezultati sugeriraju da inkrementalna promjena rasta značajno smanjuje dug, dok socijalni izdaci podižu omjer duga prema BDP-u. Također, postoji negativan odnos između inflacije i duga, dok otplaćivanje kamata na prethodno zaduživanje dodatno povećava javni dug. Konačno, nezaposlenost u ovom modelu nije statistički značajna. Glavna implikacija studije je da kreatori politika u ovim zemljama trebaju favorizirati politike usmjerene na rast i socijalne reforme orijentirane na djelotvornost, kako bi javni dug bio održiv na duže staze. ; The aim of this paper is to examine the determinants of public debt in the Western Balkan countries, with an emphasis on the effects of economic growth and social expenditures. The study covers the period 2006-2017, and we implement the dynamic panel GMM estimation, using both first-difference and system GMM. The results suggest that incremental growth change significantly reduces debt, while social expenditures push the debt-to-GDP ratio up. Also, there is a negative relation between inflation and debt, while interest payments on previous borrowing increase public debt additionally. Finally, unemployment is not statistically significant in this setting. The main policy implication is that policy makers in these countries should favor a growth-oriented policy toolbox and efficiency-oriented social reforms, in order to keep the public debt sustainable in the long run.

Upravljanje financijskim tokovima iziskuje odgovarajuću povezanost deviznih rezervi, inozemnog zaduživanja i kontrole kapitala. Ove politike smatraju se alatom za predviđanje naglih zastoja (SS). Stoga se u ovoj analizi utvrđuje pojavljivanje naglih zastoja / prekida financijskih tokova na uzorku od 200 zemalja u periodu od 1985. - 2019. godine. Vjerojatnost SS-a određuje se pomoću logit modela. Rezultati ukazuju na činjenicu da efektivno upravljanje smanjuje vjerojatnost naglih zastoja. Provedena je analiza utjecaja rizika prelijevanja na bruto domaći proizvod, potrošnju, investicije i nezaposlenost. Rezultati pokazuju štetne utjecaje na ove makroekonomske varijable. Nalazi potvrđuju da zemlje sa zadovoljavajućom razinom deviznih rezervi, malim inozemnim zaduživanjem i koje započinju s kontrolom kapitala prije pojave naglih zastoja financijskih tokova manje pogađa rizik prelijevanja nego li gospodarstva u nastajanju, jer su znatno ranjivija od bogatih gospodarstava. ; Managing capital flows needs an appropriate association of foreign exchange reserves, foreign borrowing, and capital control. These policies are considered as a tool to predict sudden stops (SS). Consequently, this analysis identifies the occurrences of SS for a sample of 200 countries within the period 1985 - 2019. The probability of SS is determined through a logit model. Results suggest that effective management reduces the probability of sudden stops. A spillover risk influence analysis was conducted on the gross domestic product, consumption, investment, and unemployment. The results show harmful impacts on these macroeconomic variables. The findings demonstrate that countries with a satisfactory level of exchange foreign reserves, small foreign borrowing, and initiating capital controls before the occurrence of SS, are less touched by the spillover risk than emergent economies which are more vulnerable than rich economies.

Rad smjera pokazati značaj i relevantnost poststrukturalnog pogleda na ekonomiju kako trasiranjem sada već općih konceptualnih mjesta tog pristupa tako i prakticiranjem te teorijske pozicije u konkretnoj analizi zaduženosti financijskog sustava. Kratkotrajna i lokalizirana, ali značajna tradicija poststrukturalnog problematiziranja kategorije ekonomije ovdje se prezentira preko tri ključne discipline – governmentality studies, ekonomske sociologije i međunarodne političke ekonomije. Nakon opisa dometa i ograničenja tih disciplina ulazimo u drugi dio rada gdje analiziramo aparaturu standardifikacije i validacije kreditnog rizika kod banaka, točnije Basel kapitalne uvjete i prakse sekuritizacije. Pružanjem genealogije tih tehnika interpretiramo domenu financija kao diskurzivni prostor (re)artikuliran preko skupa normaliziranih mehanizama i praksi koji zajednički tvore racionalnost vladanja. Na taj način ukazujemo na važnost performativnih, simboličkih, relacijskih, decentriranih i kontingentnih momenata u kritičkom poimanju (financijske) ekonomije, odnosno pokazujemo da kritika ekonomije ne mora nužno biti organizirana i provedena kroz matricu kapital – klasa – ideologija. ; This paper aims to demonstrate the significance and relevance of the poststructural gaze towards the economy by both tracing the conceptual commonplaces of this approach as well as practicing this theoretical position in the concrete analysis of indebtedness of the financial system. A brief and localized, but nonetheless significant tradition of the poststructural problematizing of the category of economy is here presented through three key disciplines: governmentality studies, economic sociology and international political economy. After portraying the contributions and limitations of those disciplines, the second part of the paper analyzes the apparatus of standardification and validification of credit risk within banks, namely the Basel Capital Accord and practices of securitisation. By offering a genealogy of those techniques, we interpret finance as a discursive space (re)articulated through an aggregate of normalized mechanisms and practices which collectively form a rationality of governance. In this way, we point out the importance of performative, symbolic, relational, decentered and contingent moments in the critical conception of (financial) economy, as well as show that the critique of economy does not necessarily have to be organized and conducted through the capital – class – ideology matrix.

Introduction The relation between the bailiff and the debtor is conflictive due to the conflict of interest of both actors. The main interest for the debtors is focused on his or her daily life, while the bailiffs' interests lie within the judicial system. Also the current laws and disciplinary regulations are not always a guarantee for lawful and proper behavior of the bailiff during the face-to-face interactions with debtors. This could generate conflicts, like vigilantism. Moreover, several current societal developments lead to an increase of the friction between bailiffs and debtors, in particular: the intensification of the debt problems and new and profound powers of creditors, the increased individualization of citizens and their more outspoken behavior, and the dominance of the free market process for bailiffs. This thesis focuses on the conflictual interactions between bailiffs and debtors. The main research questions are: "What is the reason escalating conflicts occur between bailiffs and debtors and why does the incidence increase?" Methods A practical empirical approach is used. A total of 43 cases of face-to-face interactions between bailiffs and debtors are described. The backgrounds of the conflictive interactions are analyzed using qualitative and quantitative research methods. These methods include a participant observation study of bailiffs and debtors, interviewing bailiffs and debtors, and conducting surveys among bailiffs. The main point of view is bottom-up, in which a special focus is addressed to the perceptions and behaviors of the bailiff and debtor. Finally, the perspective of third parties is described, such as debt counselors. Results There are four distinct types of face-to-face interactions between the bailiff and debtor observed: 1) volatile interactions, 2) confronting interactions, 3) strategic interactions, and 4) strong/firm interactions. Each of the four interaction types has its own conflictive character and describes the behavior at the door. The two actors act and react ...

Ovrha na temelju vjerodostojne isprave u Sloveniji je 2008. godine sustavno reorganizirana. Ispostavilo se, naime, da upravo ona generira velik dio zaostataka na slovenskim sudovima. Novoustrojeni Centralni oddelek za verodostojno listino (COVL) postao je isključivo nadležan za izdavanje rješenja o ovrsi. Sam je postupak elektronificiran i normativno revidiran, a u šestogodišnjoj se praksi pokazalo da je time postao brži i jednostavniji. Na marginama prikaza slovenskih iskustava i kvantitativne analize uspješnosti provedene reforme izneseni su i komparativni podatci za Hrvatsku kao poticaj promišljanjima hrvatskoga zakonodavca. ; Enforcement on the basis of a trustworthy document in Slovenia underwent a systematic reorganisation in 2008. The reason for this was the fact that it had been responsible for a vast amount of backlog in Slovenian courts. The newly established Central Department for Trustworthy Document (COVL) was given exclusive competence for issuing enforcement orders. The procedure was digitalised and revised in terms of regulation, and has proved to be quicker and simpler in the six years since its implementation. Alongside the presentation of the Slovenian experience and quantitative analysis of the reform, the paper features comparative data for Croatia with a view to proffering new ideas to the Croatian legislator.

Svjetska ekonomska kriza zahvatila je zemlje Zapadnog Balkana. Recesija koju je karakteriziralo smanjenje privredne aktivnosti, pad potrošnje i povećanje zaposlenosti bila je praćena smanjenjem javnih prihoda. Posljedica takvog stanja je budžetska neravnoteža koja se manifestirala u vidu strukturnog budžetskog deficita i rasta javnog duga. Fiskalna konsolidacija u svim zemljama bila je neophodna. U procesu fiskalne konsolidacije dolazi do promjene pojedinih elemenata fiskalne politike koji se razlikuju od zemlje do zemlje. U tom procesu , struktura javnih prihoda i javnih rashoda se mijenja. Postavlja se pitanje koliko je fiskalna konsolidacija bila uspješna i u kojoj mjeri. Dinamička panel analiza pomoću PMG procjenitelja u šest zemalja Zapadnog Balkana, za period od 2004-2016. godine pokazala je da fiskalna konsolidacija ima pozitivan utjecaj na ekonomski rast. Dakle, zemlje Zapadnog Balkana moraju voditi odgovorne financije kako bi potakle ekonomski rast. ; The global economic crisis has not spared the countries of the Western Balkans. The ensuing recession, characterized by a decline in economic activity, a decline in consumption and an increase in unemployment, went hand in hand with drops in public revenues. This in turn resulted in budget imbalances that manifested in structural budget deficits and higher public debt. Fiscal consolidation was deemed necessary across the board. In this process, certain fiscal policy elements varied among countries. The structure of public revenues and public expenditures changed. The question is whether the fiscal consolidation was successful and to what extent. Dynamic panel analysis using PMG estimator in six Western Balkan Countries for the period 2004-2016 has shown that fiscal consolidation has positive impact on economic growth in this region. So, Western Balkan Countries have to conduct responsible public finances in order to encourage economic growth.

Ten years ago, now, the Eurozone began to shake on its foundations. This article traces the genesis of the crisis and the present state of affairs. As to the causes of the global financial crisis in 2008, I argue that contrary to common understanding, the financial crisis had its deeper causes in a decades old tendency towards crisis in the real economy, produced by the continuous overaccumulation of capital which can only return profits by undertaking speculative short-term investments (a phenomenon known as 'financialisation'). I then trace how the global financial crisis morphed into a crisis of public deficits and debt in 2010-2011, particularly in the Eurozone. Three factors are shown to be responsible: financialization, design faults in the European monetary union, and the neo-mercantilist strategy of especially Germany and the Netherlands. The paper next looks at the five main traits of the policy responses in the Eurozone: bailing out governments and banks through creating emergency funds; imposition of austerity and budget discipline for member state governments; attempting to create and complete a Eurozone banking union; subsequently the European Central Bank engaged on an unprecedented scale in 'quantitative easing'; and finally, institutional reform in an attempt to repair the most pressing design faults of the EMU. The paper concludes that the underlying structural factors leading up to the crisis have only been addressed incompletely: the overaccumulation of capital continues, the completion of the banking union is in an impasse, quantitative easing has mostly just intensified financialization by pushing up asset prizes, and institutional reform has taken the form of a fundamentally undemocratic attempt at monetary and political union by stealth. The broader legitimacy of the European project has been substantially undermined, and Europe is not in a better position than eight years ago in case of a new global crisis.

Personal over-indebtedness can cause social exclusion, which means non-participation and/ or limited access to the labour market and education vulnerability to poverty and social isolation. The actual number of over-indebted people can be assessed, but due to the lack of a single definition of over-indebtedness it is difficult to carry out the above assessment. Almost certainly the number of over-indebted persons has increased due to the economic crisis. To avoid a situation in which creditors are losing their funds, and debtors often lose their proper place in society and become excluded, the EU developed counselling services for solving the problem of over-indebtedness and measures for debt repayment. These activities enable over-indebted people a new start in society and adequate economic participation. In the text the experiences and evaluations of specific measures related to the mitigation of over-indebtedness are presented. An effective system of prevention and alleviation of personal over-indebtedness is based on a balanced set of measures that can be grouped into four categories: prevention, addressing market related problem, resolution and rehabilitation and cross-cutting measures. ; Osobna prezaduženost može biti uzrokom socijalne isključenosti koja znači nesudjelovanje i/ili ograničen pristup tržištu rada, obrazovanju, pogođenost siromaštvom i socijalnu izolaciju. Stvarni broj prezaduženih osoba je moguće procijeniti, ali zbog nepostojanja jedinstvene definicije zaduženosti teško je izvršiti navedenu procjenu. Gotovo je sigurno da se broj prezaduženih osoba povećao zbog gospodarske krize. Za izbjegavanje stanja u kojem vjerovnici gube svoja sredstva, a dužnici često svoje mjesto u društvu i postaju socijalno isključeni, u EU-u su razvijene savjetodavne službe za rješavanje problema prezaduženosti i mjere za povrat duga, kojima se omogućava prezaduženim osobama novi početak u društvu i u ekonomskom sudjelovanju. U tekstu se iznose iskustva i ocjene pojedinih mjera vezanih uz ublažavanje prezaduženosti. Učinkovit sustav sprječavanja i ublažavanja osobne prezaduženosti temelji se na uravnoteženom sustavu mjera koje se mogu grupirati u četiri skupine: prevencija, rješavanje problema koji nastaju na tržištu, pomaganje, rješavanje i rehabilitacija te srodna pitanja.

U ovom radu analiziraju se čimbenici koji određuju izravna strana ulaganja, posebice uloga prirodnih resursa, te gospodarskih i političkih karakteristika zemlje domaćina. Istraživanje se proširuje na postojeću literaturu usredotočujući se na četiri široke skupine zemalja: napredne, tržišta u nastajanju, zemlje u razvoju i tranzicijska gospodarstva, a panel podataka za razdoblje od 1996. do 2016. godine uključuje više od 100 zemalja. U radu se također istražuje scenarij tijekom velikih ekonomskih kriza – azijske krize, Dotcom Bubble, globalne financijske krize i krize državnog duga. Rezultati pokazuju da se s vremenom odrednice ulaznih izravnih stranih ulaganja mijenjaju i da obrasci nisu ujednačeni u četiri skupine zemalja. Nadalje, u radu se uspoređuju odrednice dviju glavnih skupine zemalja, a to su: tržište u nastajanju i zemlje u razvoju provođenjem Chow testa uz jednake koeficijente. Vidljivo je da gospodarski rast i veličina tržišta imaju snažniji pozitivni utjecaj na priljev izravnih stranih ulaganja na tržišta u nastajanju nego na gospodarstva u razvoju. Također, gospodarstva s tržištima u nastajanju su tijekom globalne financijske krize doživjela manji priljev izravnih stranih ulaganja u usporedbi s gospodarstvima u razvoju. Ovi rezultati imaju važne implikacije za donositelje politika jer mogu pomoći u prepoznavanju regionalnih čimbenika koji privlače priljev kapitala. ; This paper analyses the factors determining inward foreign direct investment, particularly the role of natural endowments and economic and political characteristics of the host country. It expands on the existing literature by focusing on four broad groups of countries: advanced , emerging-market, developing and transition economies, comprising of more than 100 countries in a panel data setting for the period 1996 – 2016. The paper also examines the scenario during the major economic crises ‒ Asian crisis, Dotcom Bubble, Global Financial crisis and Sovereign Debt crisis. The results indicate that the determinants of inward foreign direct investment have changed over time and that the patterns are not uniform across the four country groups. Furthermore, the paper compares the determinants of two major country groups, namely ‒ emerging-market and developing countries by conducting Chow test for equality of coefficients. It is seen that the economic growth and market size has a stronger positive influence on inward FDI flow to emerging-market than to developing economies. Also, emerging-market economies experienced a smaller flow of FDI during Global Financial crisis compared to developing economies. These results have important implications for the policy makers as they can help to identify the regional factors that attract capital inflows.

Nedavna financijska kriza je istakla potrebu razmatranja zašto su neke firme i ekonomije ugroženije, dok su druge otpornije na krizu i kako različite financijske karakteristike poduzeća mogu utjecati na rast poduzeća. S ciljem empirijskog istraživanja ovih pitanja, analizirali smo odrednice korporativnog rasta tijekom kriznog i post-kriznog perioda (2008. – 2013.) na uzorku od 10 zemalja srednje i istočne Europe koje pripadaju dvjema različitim regionalnim grupama – "Višegradska četvorka" i grupi zemalja bivše Jugoslavije. Naša analiza obuhvaća uzorak od 3,660 opažanja. Rast poduzeća razmatran je kao funkcija dvije makro varijable (inflacija i likvidnost tržišta kapitala) i četiri varijable povezane s karakteristikama poduzeća (financijska poluga, obrt imovine, profitna marža i odnos između novčanog toka i imovine). Istraživanje ukazuje na značaj infrastrukturnih preduvjeta i makroekonomske politike za rast poduzeća u kriznim uvjetima poslovanja. Naši rezultati također ističu specifičan odnos između financijske poluge i rasta tijekom kriznog perioda, pri čemu se utjecaj financijske poluge analizira kao sveobuhvatan rezultat stupnja zaduženosti poduzeća, razine razvoja tržišta kapitala, položaja bankarskog sektora i cijene duga. Konačno, naši rezultati ukazuju na intrigantnu prirodu veze između profitabilnosti i rasta, kao i između učinkovitosti upravljanja imovinom i rasta poduzeća u kriznim periodima. ; The recent financial crisis has underlined the necessity to recognize why some firms and economies are more severely affected while others are more resilient to crisis and how different financial characteristics affect firms' growth path. In order to explore these issues empirically, we reexamine the determinants of corporate growth during the crisis and post-crisis period (2008-2013) on the sample of 10 Central and East European countries belonging to two different regional groups – "Visegrad four" and the group of former Yugoslavian countries. Our analysis covers the sample of 3,660 firm-year observations. We model firm growth as a function of two country-specific variables (inflation and capital market liquidity) and four company-specific variables (financial leverage, asset turnover, profit margin and ratio between cash flow and assets). Our study indicates the importance of infrastructure prerequisites and macroeconomic policies for the companies' growth in the conditions of crisis. Our results reveal a specific relation between leverage and firm growth during the crisis period, whereby the impact of leverage is perceived by a comprehensive result of the degree of firm indebtedness, the level of capital market development, the position of banking sector and the cost of debt. Finally, our results show some intriguing patterns in firm profitability – growth as well as asset efficiency – growth relation.

U okviru borbe protiv negativnih posljedica globalne financijske krize iz 2008. godine Europska središnja banka (ECB) je pored tradicionalnih instrumenta monetarne politike u svrhu oporavka gospodarstva relativno rano počela provoditi i nestandardne mjere. Istodobno nakon krize dolazi do intenzivnog proučavanja makroprudencijalne politike i implementiranje njenih instrumenata. S druge strane, HNB je koristio makroprudencijalne instrumente i prije krize, međutim prvu nestandardnu mjeru monetarne politike implementirao je u ožujku 2020. Provedenim istraživanjem potvrdilo se kako je provedba monetarne politike i implementacija nestandardnih mjera pozitivno utjecala na oporavak gospodarstva. Analiza s primjenom deskriptivne statistike na razini EU pokazala je kako postoji značajna negativna korelacija između monetarnih agregata i stope nezaposlenosti. Provedena analiza u Hrvatskoj također pokazuje statistički značajnu negativnu korelaciju između ponude novca i stope nezaposlenosti. Međutim, analizirajući na razini EU i RH M2 monetarni agregat umanjen za novčanu masu M1 i stopu nezaposlenosti, vidljiva je jaka pozitivna korelacija, što znači da povećavanje štednje dovodi do porasta stope nezaposlenosti. Odnosi između inflacije i duga u BDP-u s ostalim varijablama su statistički nesignifikantni, kako na razini EU tako i u RH. ; As part of the fight against the negative consequences of the 2008 global financial crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB), in addition to traditional monetary policy instruments for the purpose of economic recovery, began to implement non-standard measures relatively early. At the same time, after the crisis, there is an intensive study of macroprudential policy and the implementation of its instruments. On the other hand, the Croatian National Bank (CNB) used macroprudential instruments even before the crisis, but the first non-standard monetary policy measure was implemented in March 2020. Proven research confirmed that the implementation of monetary policy and the implementation of non-standard measures had a positive impact on economic recovery. An analysis using descriptive statistics at EU level showed that there is a significant negative correlation between monetary aggregates and the unemployment rate. The conducted analysis in Croatia also shows a statistically significant negative correlation between the money supply and the unemployment rate. However, analyzing at the EU and Croatian level M2 the monetary aggregate reduced by the money supply M1 and the unemployment rate, a strong positive correlation is visible, which means that the increase in savings leads to an increase in the unemployment rate. The relations between inflation and debt in GDP with other variables are statistically insignificant both at the EU level and in the Republic of Croatia.

Na temelju građe nekoliko fondova Arhiva Jugoslavije i dostupne dokumentacije međunarodnih institucija zaduženih za kontrolu opijumske proizvodnje i prometa, ovaj rad rekonstruira malo poznate aspekte američko-jugoslavenskih odnosa tijekom 1930-ih koji prelaze domenu privredne suradnje. U tekstu je rekonstruirano nekoliko faza izvoza kvalitetnoga jugoslavenskoga (makedonskoga) sirovog opijuma američkim farmaceutskim kompanijama: od 1929. do 1934., kada su gotovo čitavu godišnju proizvodnju otkupljivale američke tvornice, preko perioda poslovanja tursko-jugoslavenskoga Centralnog biroa obilježenog međusobnim opstrukcijama i rivalstvom na američkom tržištu, pa do faze kada je stupanj ilegalne prerade i krijumčarenja droge u Jugoslaviji ugrozio odnose sa Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama uoči izbijanja Drugoga svjetskog rata. ; Due to its large morphine content, Yugoslav medical opium was an exception-ally sought-after pharmaceutical raw material, and therefore exported to leading processing plants in Germany, Switzerland, and France till 1928, when American plants began buying up almost the entire production. After 1932, yearly production of raw opium in Yugoslavia stabilised at 35-48 tons, with 99% of the production being absorbed by the American pharmaceutical companies Merck & Co. and Mallinckrodt Chemical Works, at prices significantly greater than those in Europe. However, the enthusiasm about exporting the entire yearly opium production to the USA was put into question in early 1934, when the Turkish-Yugoslav Central Bureau for raw opium export began operating in Istanbul. It comprised representatives of the Turkish Opium Export Institute and the Yugoslav Opium Export Institute (Jugoslovenski zavod za izvoz opijuma – JUZOP). The Yugoslav participation quota of 23-26% hindered the previous level of export to America, which generated resistance towards further cooperation with Turkey in Belgrade. Thus, disputes about placing opium on the American market led to a short-lived blockade of Yugoslav opium import, while the appearance of cheap Iranian opium in Europe further emboldened the Turkish side in the Central Bureau to compensate its loss of the European market by obstructing its Yugoslav partners in dealing with American plants. Apart from this, the debts of the American Eli Lilly plant towards the JUZOP on the day of the Central Bureau's liquidation in late June 1941 further contributed towards the impression that Yugoslavia was actually suffering a loss by exporting opium in collaboration with Turkey. According to official Ministry of Agriculture data, a total of 688 tons of raw opium worth 386 million dinars were exported from the Kingdom of Yugoslavia in the 1927–1939 period. On a yearly level, this amounted to an average of 42 tons of opium worth 29 million dinars, which equalled, for example, the average yearly budget revenue of the entire Vardar Banate (province). Since yearly opium smuggling in the Kingdom of Yugoslavia stood at around 8-10 tons of opium, one can conclude that almost a quarter of the legal production actually ended up in illegal trafficking. If the smuggling of processed opium derivates (morphine, heroin, codeine) to the USA is added to these figures, and if one keeps in mind the links of the Belgrade and Skopje smuggling organisations with leading European networks for drug trafficking across the Atlantic (Eliopoulos, Bacula, Raskin), then the increased interest of the League of Nations and American diplomacy for the situation in Yugoslavia from late 1937 becomes more understandable. The direct pressure of the American embassy in Paris, which operated a "service" for tracking narcotics smuggling, influenced the Yugoslav authorities to enact harsher laws and at least temporarily reign in the increasingly aggressive criminalisation of a formerly perspective branch of agriculture.