The main aspect of this study is to analyse the relationship between public expenditures and foreign debt in Turkey considering the period after 2002 during political stability. In this respect, as first theoretical framework of this relationship between two variables is generated. Thereafter literature review on this aspect is followed by an econometric analysis of the relationship. The study is composed of two sections. First section introduced theoretical framework. Second section put forward the econometric analysis of public expenditure – foreign debt relationship by some estimation methods and tests. Respectly historical developments of public expenditure and foreign debt in Turkey are suggested. Econometric model followed the historical framework through estimation methods. Granger Casuality Analysis and Johansen Cointegration Analysis were used to test the relationship between variables The findings through econometric modelling suggested positive relationship between public expenditure and foreign debt during the period after the year 2002. The results are consistent with theoretical framework and literatüre. Accordingly, increase in public expenditure during the period of political stability after 2002 could bring about increase in foreign debt ; Bu çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye'de kamu harcamaları ve dış borçlanma ilişkisini 2002 sonrası dönemini dikkate alarak araştırmaktır. Bu bağlamda ilk olarak kamu harcamaları ve dış borçlanmaya yönelik teorik çerçeveye yer verilmiş, ardından literatür taraması yapılarak kamu harcamaları ve dış borçlanma arasındaki ilişki ekonometrik olarak incelenmiştir. Çalışma iki bölümden oluşmaktadır. Birinci bölümde kamu harcamaları ve dış borçlanmaya yönelik teorik bilgiler sunulmuş, ikinci bölümde ise Türkiye'de kamu harcamaları ve dış borçlanma ilişkisinin ekonometrik analizi gerçekleştirilerek, Türkiye'de kamu harcamalarının tarihsel gelişimi, kamu harcamaları ve dış borçlanma ilişkisine yönelik literatür taraması ve değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin test edilmesine yer verilmiştir. Değişkenler arasında ilişkinin test edilmesi amacıyla Granger Nedensellik Analizi ve Johansen Eşbütünleşme Analizi kullanılmıştır. Bu analizlerden elde edilen sonuçlara göre ise Türkiye'de 2002 sonrası dönemde kamu harcamaları ile dış borçlanma arasında bir ilişkinin olduğu ve bu ilişkinin yönünün pozitif olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Teorik beklentiyle uyumlu olan bu sonuç aynı zamanda 2002 sonrası dönemde kamu harcamalarında meydana gelen artışların dış borç stokunda da artışlar yaratacağı bulgusunu sunmaktadır
Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin kalkınmalarını sağlayacak yatırımlar gerçekleştirebilmelerini tasarruf yetersizliği sınırlamaktadır. Tasarruf, planlanan yatırımların kaynağını oluştururken, yurt içinde üretilemeyen makine, donanım ile hammaddenin ithali, kaynağı bulunan yatırımların gerçekleştirilebilmesini kolaylaştırır. Yapılan yatırımlar, yatırım malları ve hammadde ithalatını artırırken, yükselen gelir düzeyi de dış tüketim mallarına olan talebi uyarmaktadır. Artan ithal talebini karşılamak için gerekli olan dövizi sağlamanın yolu ise ya ihracatı artırarak ülkeye döviz girişini sağlamak ya da dış borçlanmaya giderek gerekli olan finansmanı sağlamaktır. Dış borçlanma, bir yandan tasarruf yetersizliğini giderirken diğer yandan kalkınma için gerekli ithalatın yapılabilmesine olanak sağlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada; Devletin dış borçlanmasının Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine etkileri incelenmiştir. ; In this paper, the state external debt will be analyzed in the context of the Turkish economy, an economy which had been undergoing a process of liberalization since the first half of the 1980s. Turkey was one of the heavy debtor countries in the beginning of 1980s. However, Turkey had two important advantages: First, when the debt crises hit, Turkey could reschedule her debt and get a breathing time. Second, Turkey could obtain access to new funds from the international financial organizations. After 1985, to cope with the internal debt problem, Turkey at first chose to restrict its public expenditures especially personnel and transfer expenditures. At the limit of restricting expenditures, government began to make domestic borrowing. ; In this paper, the state external debt will be analyzed in the context of the Turkish economy, an economy which had been undergoing a process of liberalization since the first half of the 1980s. Turkey was one of the heavy debtor countries in the beginning of 1980s. However, Turkey had two important advantages: First, when the debt crises hit, Turkey could reschedule her debt and get a breathing time. Second, Turkey could obtain access to new funds from the international financial organizations. After 1985, to cope with the internal debt problem, Turkey at first chose to restrict its public expenditures especially personnel and transfer expenditures. At the limit of restricting expenditures, government began to make domestic borrowing.
DergiPark: 326146 ; trakyasobed ; Countries have attracted foreign sources with a limited time by external debt transactions. Basically foreign debts are used to finance budget deficit and current account deficits. Providing temporary relief for the country's economy, foreign debts may case troubles when the time comes for payment of interest and principal payments unless they are invested in productive areas. Ottoman had lived this experience by losing her fiscal independence. The Ottoman Empire took its first foreign debt in 1854 from the United Kingdom because of the Crimean War and the amount of foreign debts continuously increased in subsequent years. In this study, it is subjected that the foreign debts taken in the period of 1854-1874 was the first twenty years of the foreign debt adventure of the Ottoman Empire and the cost of the debts taken to the state. Then, the foreign debts are recalculated for the amount of money today which dragged the Ottoman Empire into bankruptcy. Thus, though it covers a very short period, how the excessive foreign borrowing led a state to fall into insolvency is tried to explain. ; Dış borçlanma ile ülkelerin amacı, yurt dışı kaynakları sınırlı bir süre ile ülke içine çekmektir. Alınan dış borçlar temelde, cari denge açıkları ile bütçe açıklarının finansmanında kullanılmaktadırlar. Alındığı zaman ülke ekonomisine geçici bir rahatlık sağlayan dış borçlar, üretimi artıracak alanlara yatırılmadıkları takdirde, ileride faiz ve anapara taksitlerinin ödenme zamanı geldiğinde sıkıntı yaratabilmektedir. Osmanlı bu deneyimi mali bağımsızlığını kaybederek yaşamıştır. Osmanlı Devleti ilk dış borcunu Kırım Savaşı nedeni ile 1854 yılında İngiltere'den almış, sonraki yıllarda dış borçlanma artarak sürmüştür. Alınan dış borçlar kısa sürede devletin iflasına neden olmuş ve Osmanlı Devleti mali açıdan çökmüştür. Bu çalışmada Osmanlı Devleti'nin dış borç macerasının ilk yirmi yılı olan 1854-1874 döneminde yapılan dış borçlanmalar ve bunun devlete maliyeti konu edilmiştir. Sonra Osmanlı Devleti'ni mali olarak iflasa sürükleyen dış borç tutarlarının günümüz parasıyla karşılığı hesaplanmıştır. Böylelikle, çok kısa bir dönemi kapsasa da ölçüsüz dış borçlanmanın bir devleti nasıl iflasa sürüklediği anlatılmaya çalışılmıştır.
Ekonomik krizler son yüzyılda fazla karşılaşılan bir olgu olarak ekonomistler için önemli bir araştırma konusudur. Ayrıca ekonomik krizler, genel anlamda ülkelerin makroekonomik parametrelerinde negatif etkiler meydana getirmektedirler. Bu negatif etkilerden biri de yerel yönetimlerin mali yapısı üzerinde meydana gelmektedir. Vatandaşlara en yakın hizmet veren kamu idareleri olan yerel yönetimlerin ekonomik krizle birlikte mali yapılarındaki etkileşim değerlendirilmesi gereken bir konudur. Bu amaçla çalışmanın amacı makroekonomik etkileri olumsuz olan ekonomik krizlerin yerel yönetimlerin maliyelerinde ne tür etkiler bıraktığının tespit edilmesidir. Bu tespitin yapılması için "Avrupa Borç Krizi" örnek olarak seçilmiş ve PIIGS ülkelerinin de içinde yer aldığı Avrupa'daki on beş ülkenin krizin en yoğun olduğu "2010-2015" yılları arasında yerel yönetim bütçelerindeki negatif dönüşüm gözlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak bahsedilen dönemde bu ülkelerin yerel yönetimlerinin gelir ve harcamalarında daralmalar olduğu ve yaşanan ekonomik krizlerden ciddi anlamda etkilendikleri tespit edilmiş ve yerel yönetimlerin krizlerden daha az etkilenmesi için neler yapılması gerektiği hakkında çeşitli önerilerde bulunulmuştur. ; Economic crises are an important research topic for economists as a more common phenomenon in the last century. Also, economic crises have negative effects on the macroeconomic parameters of countries. One of these negative effects is on the financial structure of local governments. The deterioration in the financial structures of local administrations as the public institutions serving the citizens closest to them is an issue that needs to be evaluated. The aim of this study is to determine the effects of the economic crises which have negative macroeconomic effects on the finances of local governments of fifteen countries. In order to make this determination, the "European Debt Crisis" was chosen as an example and negative transformation was observed in the local government budgets between the years 2010-2015, when the crisis in Europe was the most intense. As a result, it was determined that there was contraction in the revenues and expenditures of local governments of these countries and they were seriously affected by the economic crises and various suggestions were made about what should
1990 Öncesinde daha çok kalkınmaya yönelik artan kamu harcamalarınınfinansmanı vergi gelirlerinin yetersizliği sebebiyle borçlanmayla sağlanmıştır.1990'lara kadar artarak gelen iç borçlar bu yıllardan sonra daha çok kamu açıklarının finansmanında kullanılmış yıllar itibariyle artmaya devam etmiitir.İç borçların siyasi tercihler sebebiyle verimsiz kullanılması kamu kesimi borçlanmagereğini oldukça yükseltmiştir. Durum, borcun borçla ödendiği bir hale dönüşmüş ve iç borçlar her yıl daha da artmıştır. Yüksek miktardaki borçlanma ise, toplam kamu harcamaları içerisindeki faiz harcamalarının payını arttırmıştır. Kamu harcamalarındaki faiz yükü artışı her geçen gün Türkiye'yi daha zor bir duruma götürmüş, borç-faiz kısır döngüsü içerisine sokmuştur. Türkiye bu dönemde iç borçların çevrilebilirliğinin tartışıldığı bir problemle karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Kamu gelirlerinin kamu giderlerini karşılayamaması durumunda iç borçlara başvurulması doğaldır, ancak yüksek reel faizler ve iç borçların miktarı yıllık faiz ödemelerinin normal gelirlerle karşılanamaması sonucunu doğurmaktadır. Faiz ödemeleri için yeniden borçlanmak zorunda kalınmaktadır. Bu, yeni kaynak sağlanmadığı halde borç stokunun sürekli olarak artması sonucunu doğurur ve borç kısır döngüsü olarak adlandırılır. 1994 ve şubat 2001 ekonomik krizleri Türkiye'yi ekonomik ve sosyal açıdan etkileyen önemli gelişmelerdir. Bu ekonomik krizler iç borç stokunda önemli artışlara sebep olmuş ve şubat 2001 krizinin etkileri hala devam etmektedir. Türkiye'nin iç borç-faiz kısır döngüsü içerisine girmesinin temel sebebi iç borçların verimsiz kullanılması ve iç borç yönetiminin siyasi kaygılar doğrultusunda hareket ederek ülke gerçekleriyle bağdaşmayan uygulamalarıdır. GENERAL KNOWLEDGE Name and Surname:Alper Bora DemirelField:FinanceProgramme:Financial EconomicsSupervisor:Professor Dilek YılmazcanDegree Awarded and Date:Master - July 2004Keywords:The domestic debts, internal debts ABSTRACT Before 1990 the increasing expenditures of public financing were provided by debts because of the insufficient taxes towards the development. The domestic debts that have increased since 1990's have been used for financial deficits. The domestic debts have increased very much and have been used for the public deficits for ages. The unproductive use of the internal debts as an outcome of political preferences, the need of public borrowing has increased a lot.That turned into a position that the debts have been paid with the debts, and the internal debts have increased continuously since then. And the large deal of borrowings increased the share of the interest expenses. The interest burden in public expenditures have put Turkey into an immensely difficult situation in every respect and all this created a vicious circle of debts and interest payments. Turkey has encountered a lot of problems about the exchange of internal debts. It is so natural to demand internal debts when public incomes do not cover public expenditures, but high real interests and the amount of internal debts cause the result that the annual interest payments can not be paid with the usual incomes. It is obliged to become indebted again and again. That causes the increase of the debt burden without obtaining new financial resources and it is called as ?vicious circle of debts.The crises of 1994 and February 2001 are very important events which affected Turkey from the point view of economy and social respects. These economic crises have caused a very great deal of increase of the internal debt stocks and the effect of the crisis February 2001 have also been felt even today by the people. The main reason of Turkey's internal debt and interest vicious circle are the unproductive use of the internal debts and the applications which are contrary to the realities of the country by the authorized administrators who aimed at political anxieties.
ÖZETTürkiye-Yunanistan ilişkileri tarihi süreçte güvensizlik temeline dayandırılmıştır. Bu güvensizlik 1950 yılında ortaya çıkan Kıbrıs sorunuyla pekişerek büyümüş, bu dönemde iki ülke arasındaki anlaşmazlıklar realist bakış açısıyla çözüme ulaştırılmaya çalışılmıştır. 1999 yılında düzenlenen Helsinki Zirvesi'nde Türkiye'nin Avrupa Birliği'ne aday gösterilmesi ilişkileri farklı bir boyuta taşımıştır. Geçmişe bakıldığında tarihleri boyunca hem Türkiye hem de Yunanistan birçok ekonomik krizle mücadele etmek zorunda kalmıştır. Bu krizlerden en önemlisi; 21. yüzyıl itibariyle kendini hissettirmeye başlayarak 2008 yılında Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nde ortaya çıkan ve 2009'un son çeyreği ile Avrupa Borç Krizi'ne dönüşen küresel ekonomik krizdir. Çok sayıda ülke bu krizden olumsuz etkilenirken özellikle Yunanistan AB bünyesinde en çok zarar gören ülke olmuştur. Kısa bir süre sonra ise Avrupa Borç Krizi Yunanistan borç krizine dönüşmüştür. Bu netice doğrultusunda, başta AB ülkeleri olmak üzere çok sayıda dünya ülkesini etkisi altına alan Avrupa Borç Krizi'nin Türkiye-Yunanistan ilişkilerine olası etkilerinden yola çıkılarak bu çalışma hazırlanmıştır. Bu bağlamda Avrupa Borç Krizi sonrası süreçte Türkiye-Yunanistan ilişkileri, AB-Yunanistan ilişkisini ortaya koyan bağımsız değişken ve yaşanan ekonomik krizin Türkiye-Yunanistan ilişkilerine etkisini gösteren bağımlı değişken ile birlikte neo-realist kuram çerçevesinde değerlendirilmiştir. Bu değerlendirme sonucunda iki ülke arasında yaşanan Ege ve Kıbrıs gibi siyasi anlaşmazlıkların çözüme ulaştırılıp ulaştırılamayacağı noktasında bir analiz yapılması amaçlanmıştır. Bu gaye uyarınca çalışma üç ana bölümden oluşturulmuştur. İlk bölümünde realizm, neo-realizm ve çalışmanın alt problemlerinden ilkini oluşturan Türkiye-Yunanistan ilişkilerinin genel çerçevesi neo-realizm bakış açısıyla çizilmiştir. İkinci bölümde, çalışmanın ikinci alt problemini oluşturan Avrupa Borç Krizi'nin ortaya çıkış nedenleri ile Yunanistan ve Türkiye'ye etkilerine değinilmiştir. Çalışmanın ana araştırma sorusunu oluşturan Avrupa Borç Krizi sonrası Türkiye-Yunanistan ilişkileri ise üçüncü bölümde değerlendirilmiştir.Çalışmanın sonucunda uluslararası sistemin günümüzde "Çok Kutupluluğa" doğru dönüştüğü belirlenmiştir. Avrupa'da tecrübe edilen borç krizinin Avrupa Birliği'nin kendini sorgulamasına neden olduğu, Almanya'nın süreç ve kriz yönetiminde ön plana çıktığı, Yunanistan'ın ise ulusal çıkarları doğrultusunda yaşanan borç krizini fırsata çevirerek içinde bulunduğu durumu Türkiye ile olan siyasi sorunlarında bir taviz aracı olarak kullandığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Her ne kadar 1999 Helsinki Zirvesi'nin ardından Türkiye ile Yunanistan arasında ekonomik ve sosyal yönden çok sayıda işbirliği yolu açılmış olsa da, Avrupa Borç Krizi sonrasında AB-Yunanistan ilişkisinin sıkılaşarak devam ediyor olması da açık bir gerçektir. Bu durum, Türkiye-Yunanistan ilişkilerinde Ege ve Kıbrıs gibi geçmişten günümüze taşınan siyasi anlaşmazlıkların uzun bir süre daha Avrupa Birliği nezdinde çözüme kavuşturulamayacağını ortaya koymaktadır. ABSTRACTTurkey-Greece relations are based on the fundamental insecurity in the historical process. This insecurity grew by consolidating with the Cyprus problem that emerged in 1950, and the problems between the two countries were tried to be resolved by realist point of view. At the Helsinki Summit in 1999. Turkey's relations with the European Union, the nomination was moved to a different dimension. In retrospect, dates throughout Turkey and many have been forced to fight the economic crisis as well as Greece. The most important of these crises; It is the global economic crisis that began in the United States in 2008, beginning with self-empowerment in the 21st century and turning into the European Debt Crisis with the last quarter of 2009. While many countries are negatively affected by this crisis, Greece has been the most damaged country in the EU. Soon after, the European Debt Crisis became Greece's debt crisis. In line with this conclusion, especially European Union countries, including many countries of the world under the impact of the possible effects of the European debt crisis based on this study has been prepared on the Turkey-Greece relations. In this context, analyzed within the framework of neo-realist theory of the Turkey-Greece relations in the aftermath of the European debt crisis with the independent variable that reveals the EU-Greece relationship and the dependent variable that shows the impact of economic crisis in Turkey-Greece relations. As a result of this evaluation, it was aimed to make an analysis at the point where the experienced political disagreements between the two countries, Cyprus and Aegean, could not be delivered. In accordance with this objective, the study is composed of three main sections. The first section of realism, neo-realism, and forming the framework of the first Turkey-Greece relations problems of the sub-study were drawn from the point of view of neo-realism. In the second part, forming the second sub-study problems with the reasons for the emergence of the European debt crisis and it is addressed to the effects of Greece and Turkey. The study constitutes the main research question after the European Debt Crisis Turkey-Greece relations have been evaluated in the third section.At the end of the study, it was determined that the international system is now turning towards "Polarity". Europe's experience as the debt crisis in the European Union caused the self-questioning, Germany's process and that came to the fore in crisis management, while Greece national interests in accordance experienced were in turning the opportunities of the debt crisis compromise the vehicle's political problems with Turkey as the result that we use as. Although the 1999 Helsinki Summit the following economic and social aspects of many ways of cooperation from between Turkey and Greece opened, though, it is an obvious fact that EU and Greece relationships continues to tighten after the debt crisis. This case shows that the political disagreements moved from the past to the present in Turkey-Greece relations such as Aegean and Cyprus cannot be resolved for a long time within the European Union.
TEZ8730 ; Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- Çukurova Üniversitesi, Adana, 2012. ; Kaynakça (s. 94-103) var. ; xi, 104 s. : res., tablo ; 29 cm. ; As the financial crises which recurred frequently in the developing countries during the 1990's have appalled these economies, predicting of the financial crises has become one of the important subjects being studied at the national and international literature. In the developing economies, the ratio of the international reserves to the short term foreign debts is one of the most important leading indicators used in predicting the financial crises. It is generally accepted as ""The Reserve Adequacy"" where the ratio of international reserves to the short-term foreign debts is minimum 1, in other words where the international reserves are high enough to cover the capital and interest payments of the external and internal foreign currency debts which will become due within a one year term. In the literature, this ratio is evaluated as one of the key indicators of the credibility of an economy. While the decrease of the ratio of the reserves to the short-term foreign debts under the critical value of 1 leads to comments like there is a disorder in the economy or ineffective policies are used; the increase of this ratio over the critical value of 1 is interpreted as the economy is strong enough to front the sudden shocks. Therefore, this ratio is a key macroeconomic indicator for the developing economies which borrow from the financial markets and experience intensive foreign capital flow. In this research, the relationship of this ratio with the financial crises which Turkey and some developing economies are exposed to has been stated with both theoretical and empirical studies. The role of the ratio over the financial crises has been explored by determining the effects of some important macroeconomic indicators over the ratio at times the ratio is under the critical value of 1 and it is discussed whether this ratio is a leading indicator for the financial crises or not. ; 1990'lı yıllarda gelişmekte olan ülkelerde sıklıkla tekrarlanan finansal krizlerin ülke ekonomilerini derinden sarsması nedeniyle finansal krizlerin öngörülmesi ulusal ve uluslar arası literatürde çalışılan önemli konulardan biri olmuştur. Gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomilerinde uluslar arası rezervlerin kısa vadeli dış borçlara oranı, finansal krizlerin öngörülmesinde kullanılan öncü göstergelerden en önemlilerinden biridir. Uluslar arası rezervlerin kısa vadeli dış borçlara oranının en az 1 olması, diğer bir deyişle rezervlerin bir yıllık dönemde vadesi gelecek olan döviz cinsi dış ve iç borç anapara ve faiz ödemelerini karşılamaya yetecek düzeyde olması rezerv yeterliliği olarak kabul görmüştür. Bu oran, literatürde bir ekonominin güvenirliliğinin en temel göstergelerinden birisi olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Uluslar arası rezervlerin kısa vadeli dış borçlara oranının 1 kritik değerinin altına düşmesi ekonomide bozulmaların olduğu, etkin olmayan politikaların izlendiği şeklinde yorumlanırken, bu oranın 1 kritik değerinin üzerinde olması ise ülke ekonomisinin ani şokları göğüsleyebilecek kadar güçlü olduğu şeklinde yorumlanmaktadır. Bu nedenle bu oran, finansal piyasalardan borç alan ve yabancı sermaye akışının yoğun olduğu gelişmekte olan ülkeler için önemli bir makroekonomik göstergedir. Bu araştırmada, bu oranın Türkiye'nin ve bazı gelişmekte olan ülkelerin maruz kaldığı finansal krizler ile ilişkisi hem teorik hem de ampirik olarak ortaya konulmuştur. Uluslararası rezervlerin kısa vadeli dış borçlara oranının finansal krizler üzerindeki etkisi, finansal krizlerin ortaya çıkmasına neden olan para arzının uluslar arası rezervlere oranı, para arzının GSYİH'ya oranı, cari işlemler açığının GSYİH'a oranı ve yurtiçi kredilerin GSYİH'a oranı gibi makroekonomik göstergelerin, bu oran üzerindeki etkileri tespit edilmiştir. Aynı zamanda bu oranın finansal krizlerin öngörülmesinde potansiyel bir öncü gösterge olup olmadığı tartışılmıştır.
Makalenin amacı, Finansal Kırılganlık Endeksi (FKE) yardımıyla 1989- 2011 arasında Türkiye ekonomisinin temel makro ekonomik göstergelerindeki değişim ve bu değişimin sonuçlarının analiz edilmesidir. Bu bağlamda Türkiye ekonomisi için 8 makro ekonomik temel değişken seçilerek, bir FKE türetilmiştir. Bu sekiz değişken şunlardır: (1) Cari İşlemler Dengesi/GSMH; (2) Reel Kur Endeksi, (3) İthalat/İhracat (4) Kısa Vadeli dış borç/ TCMB döviz Rezervleri; (5) Konsolide Bütçe Dengesi/GSMH; (6) İMKB 100 endeksinin yıllık artış oranı(7) Kısa-vadeli Dış Borç/Orta ve Uzun-vadeli Dış Borç; (8)Kamu Net Borç Stoku/GSMH. Finansal kırılganlığın arttığını gösteren "eşik değer" 0.40 olarak bulunmuş ve bu eşik değerin hem 1994 hem de 2001 krizlerini önceden tahmin etme yetisi olduğu gözlenmiştir. Endeks değeri; 1992 ve 1999 yıl-sonu itibariyle düşükken (sırasıyla - 0,06 ve 0,25), 1993 yıl-sonunda 0.98; 2000'de ise 0.90 değerine ulaşarak, ekonomide kırılganlığın artığına dair çok güçlü sinyaller üretmiştir. Buna karşın endeks değeri, finansal kırılganlığın artığını gösteren eşik değere 2001 krizinden sonra hiç ulaşamamış; 2008-2009 krizini öngören bir sinyal üretmemiştir. Ama bu da, 2008-2009 krizinin yurtiçi değil yurt-dışı kaynaklı olduğu göz önüne alınırsa, olması gerektiği gibidir. ; The main purpose of this article is to take a snap-shot of the changes that occurred in the key macro variables of the Turkish economy in the past two decades and to comment on the results. ln this context a Financial Vulnerability Index (FVI) was constructed using the following eight selected fundamental variables for the 1989-2011 period: (1) Ratio of the the Current Account Balance to GDP, (2) The Reel Exchange-Index, (3)Imports/Exports Ratio, (4) Ratio of Short Term Foreign Debt to Central Bank Forex Reserves, (5) Budget Deficits/GNP Ratio, (6) The annual Rate of Increase in the IMKB-100 Index, (7) Ratio of Short-Term to Medium + Long-Term Foreign Debt and (8) Public Debt Stock /GNP Ratio. This FVI, the threshold-value of which is 0.40, was successful in predicting both the 1994 and 2001 currency crises for it has produced strong signals in the years immediately preceding the two "home-made" crises: While low as of the year end of 1992 and 1999 (-0.06 and 0.025 respectively), the index rose precipitously to 0.98 and 0.90 (respectively) as of years' end of 1992 and 2000. Between 2002-2011, this index oscillated but never crossed the threshold value and thus did not produce any predictive signals preceding the 2008-2009 crises. But considering the fact that the said crises was "imported" and not "home-made", this is neither surprising nor can be construed as a failure to predict.
Küreselleşme hareketine bağlı olarak yerelleşme hareketi de aynı şekilde hız kazanmaya başlamıştır. Bu sürecin bir sonucu olarak merkeziyetçi yapıların sahip olduğu güç ve imkânların bir kısmı yerel yönetimlere devredilmiştir. Bu yetki ve görev devrinin bir sonucu olarak yerel yönetimlerin kendi mali ve idari sorumlulukları oluşmuştur. Bu çalışmada Tekirdağ Büyük Şehir Belediyesi'nin mali disiplin içerisinde yürütmüş olduğu faaliyetler kapsamında 2014-2018 yılları arası mali bütçe bilançosu analiz edilmiştir. Genel itibariyle Tekirdağ Büyükşehir Belediyesinin gelir ve giderleri karşılıklı olarak incelendiğinde gelirlerin giderleri karşılamadığı görülmektedir. Bunun neticesinde oluşan bütçe açıklarını ise borçlanma ile kapatma yoluna gitmişlerdir. Bu durum Tekirdağ Büyükşehir Belediyesini mali açıdan devamlılığı çok güç olan bir borç yükü altına sokmuştur. Böylece belediye bir borç döngüsü içine girmiş ve borç ödemekte sıkıntıya düşmüştür. ; Due to the globalization movement, the localization movement started to accelerate. As a result of this process, some of the power and facilities owned by centralist structures have been transferred to local governments. As a result of this transfer of powers and duties, local administrations have their own financial and administrative responsibilities. In this study, the financial budget balance between the years 2014-2018 has been analyzed within the scope of the activities carried out in the financial discipline of Tekirdağ Metropolitan Municipality. When the income and expenses of the Tekirdağ Metropolitan Municipality are examined in mutual terms, it is seen that the revenues do not cover the expenses. As a result of this, they started to close the budget deficits by borrowing. This situation has put the Metropolitan Municipality under a financial burden which is very difficult to sustain. Thus, the municipality has entered into a debt cycle and has trouble to pay the debt.
Bu çalışma, Avrupa Birliği'ne üyelik sürecinde olan Türkiye ile Batı Balkan ülkelerinin küresel kriz sonrası ekonomik ve mali performanslarının karşılaştırılmasını amaçlamaktadır. Türkiye ve Batı Balkan ülkeleri (Makedonya, Karadağ, Sırbistan, Arnavutluk aday ülkeler; Kosova ve Bosna Hersek potansiyel aday ülkelerdir), Avrupa Birliği'nin ekonomik ve mali uyuma ilişkin kriterlerini yerine getirmekle yükümlüdürler. Küresel kriz ve ardından yaşanan borç krizi Avrupa Birliği'ne üye ülkeler kadar aday Batı Balkan ülkelerinin ekonomik ve mali performanslarını ciddi biçimde etkilediğinden, Batı Balkan ülkeleri müzakere sürecindeki yükümlülüklerini yerine getirmede zorlanmaktadırlar. 2008-2016 yıllarına ilişkin reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla, işsizlik, enflasyon, kamu açığı, kamu borcu, kamu gelirleri ve harcamaları gibi ekonomik ve mali göstergeler bu durumu açıkça ortaya koymaktadır. Batı Balkan ülkelerine göre küresel krizden daha sınırlı düzeyde etkilenen Türkiye ise dikkate alınan göstergeler bakımından daha olumlu bir görünüm sergilemesine rağmen, Avrupa Birliği, üyelik bakımından Batı Balkan ülkelerine daha yakın dururken, Türkiye ile arasına daha fazla mesafe koymaktadır. ; It is aimed to compare the economic and fiscal performance of Western Balkans and Turkey in the process of accession to the European Union. Turkey and the Western Balkans that consist of candidate ( Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Albania) and potential candidate (Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina) countries are obliged to fulfill the criteria for the European Union's economic and fiscal cohesion. The Western Balkans have been forced to fulfill their obligations under the negotiating process, as the global crisis and the subsequent debt crisis seriously affects their economic and fiscal performances as well as European Union members. Economic and fiscal indicators such as real gross domestic product, unemployment, inflation, public deficit, public debt, public revenues and expenditures for the years 2008-2016 clearly demonstrate this. Despite the fact that Turkey less affected by the global crisis vis-a-vis the Western Balkans has more positive outlook in terms of the indicators, the European Union stands closer to the Western Balkans compared to Turkey.
1990'lu yıllarda 32 sayılı karar etkisinde, döviz kurları cari işlemler hesabındaki hareketlerden koparak, sermaye hareketlerinin etkisine girdi. Spekülatif sermaye girişleri, ekonomideki döviz arzını arttırarak Türk Lirasının yabancı paralar karşısında değer kazanmasına ve sonuçta ülkenin dış ticaret açıklarının giderek büyümesine neden oldu. Diğer yandan, kamu kesiminin artan dengesizliği iç borçlanma ile aşılmaya çalışıldı. Fakat yurtiçi tasarrufların yetersizliği ve yurtdışı maliyetlerin daha cazip olması nedeniyle dış borçlanmada da artış oldu. Türkiye, 2000'li yıllara bozuk bir kamu maliyesi, artan iç ve dış borçlar, dış dengesizlikler ve enflasyon ile girerken, IMF destekli, kur çapasına dayanan bir istikrar programını uygulamaya koydu. Fakat programın öngördüğü enflasyon tutturulamayınca Türk Lirası aşırı değerlenerek cari işlem açığı, GSHM'nin %4.8'ine ulaştı. Bu düzeyde bir cari açığın sabit kurda sürdürülemez olduğunu gören finansal yatırımcılar ülkeyi terk etmeye başladılar. Sıcak para kaçışları ile birlikte ülke Kasım 2000 ve Şubat 2001'de finansal krize girdi. Sonuçta, 22 Şubat 2001'de Türk Lirası dalgalanmaya bırakıldı. Çalışmada, 1995 Tekila, 1997 Güneydoğu Asya ve 2000 Arjantin Krizleri de irdelenmiştir. Tüm finansal krizlerin ortak yapısı, bu ülkelerin, sıcak paraya, düşük kur artış oranı - yüksek faiz politikasıyla sürdürülemeyecek düzeyde yüksek arbitraj kârı sunmaya çalışmalarıdır. Sonuçta aşırı değerlenen ulusal para yüzünden cari açıkları yükselen ülkelerden kaçmaya başlayan spekülatif sermaye, ülkelerin krize girmelerine yol açmakta ve dahası krizlerin ülkelerarası yayılmasına neden olmaktadır. Sermaye hareketlerinin istikrarsızlık yaratıcı etkisini bile bile IMF, hâlâ ülkeleri finansal serbestleşmeye teşvik etmektedir. Çalışmada IMF, bu yanlış tutumu nedeniyle eleştirilmektedir ve bunun dayanakları ülke örnekleri ve ekonomik göstergelerle ortaya konmaya çalışılmaktadır.GENERAL KNOWLEDGEName and Surname : Ayhan UçakField : EconomicsProgramme : Economic TheorySupervisor : Prof. Dr. Kıvanç ERTOPDegree Awarded and Date : Master - February 2003Keywords :IMF, Financial Crises, Stabilization Policies, Short Term Capital FlowsABSTRACTTURKEY'S 2000 ECONOMIC STABILIZATION POLICY AND ECONOMIC CRISEUnder the Decree Number 32 implemented in 1989, foreign exchange has no direct ties with the current account balances but has the relation with the capital account balances. Speculative capital inflows increased the foreign currency supply in Turkey and caused the value of TL to revalue. At the end, the foreign trade deficit started to increase. In addition, the public sector's borrowing requirement was financed through the domestic debt. The shortage of domestic sources and cheaper external sources caused the foreign debt to soar. Printing the money for public finance was the main cause of the high inflation rates.Turkey entered 2000s with a worsened public finance, increased foreign and domestic debt, external imbalances and high inflation rates. Turkey implemented a stabilization program with an exchange anchor. The targeted inflation rates were not achieved and TL started to revaluate. At the end of 2000, current account deficit reached at 4.8 percent of GNP, which was impressively high figure. The financial investors started to transfer their money abroad since they noticed that such an account deficit could not be managed with the fixed exchange rate. The outflow of the sources was the main reason of November 2000 and February 2001 crises. At the end, Turkey allowed Lira to float freely at February 22, 2001.In the study, the Tequila crisis of Mexico in 1995, Southeast Asian crisis of 1997 and Argentinean crisis of 2000 were examined. The common structure of these crises is the revaluation of the domestic currencies due to the foreign currency inflows, which entered to the country as a result of financial liberalization policies. As a result, the countries cannot continue with the increased current account deficits. The foreign capital, which notices this negative outcome, starts to leave the country to cause the financial crisis. IMF still advices the countries for more financial liberalization. In the study, IMF was criticized for the wrong policies.
GENEL BİLGİLERİsim ve Soyadı : Bülent İlhanAnabilim Dalı : İktisatProgramı : İktisat PolitikasıTez Danışmanı : Prof. Dr. Gülten DemirTez Türü ve Tarihi : Doktora – Şubat 2014Anahtar Kelimeler: Cari İşlemler Açığı, Ödemeler BilançosuÖZET2000 SONRASI TÜRKİYE'DE CARİ AÇIK PROBLEMİNİN BİR ANALİZİ VE ÇÖZÜME YÖNELİK ALTERNATİF ÖNERİLER1980 sonrasında giderek hızlanan küreselleşme paralelinde dünya ticaret hacmindeki büyük artışla birlikte, Türkiye'nin de özellikle 2000'li yıllarda ticaret hacmi ivmelenerek genişlemiştir. Gerek ithal bağımlılık oranının yüksek olması, gerekse tasarruf açığı nedeniyle dış ticaret açığı da büyümüştür. Bunun sonucunda cari işlemler açığı sorunu 2000 sonrasında Türkiye ekonomisinin önemli bir problemi haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmanın esas amacı cari açık problemi ile ilişkili olduğu düşünülen büyüme oranı, bütçe açığı, dış ticaret açığı, dış borç stoku, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, döviz kuru, faiz oranları ve enerji fiyatları değişkenlerinin incelenmesi ve zaman serileri analizi ile cari açığı ne ölçüde açıkladığının araştırılmasıdır. Amprik çalışma iki analizi içermektedir. İlk analizde değişkenlerin her biri ile cari işlemler açığı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi ve bu değişkenlerin cari işlemler açığını hangi oranda açıkladığı araştırılmıştır. İkinci analizde ise tüm değişkenler analize dahil edilerek hangilerinin cari işlemler açığının üzerinde daha belirleyici olduğu araştırılmıştır. Her iki analizde nedensellik ilişkilerinin benzerlik gösterdiği ve öne çıkan belirleyici değişkenlerin Ekonomik Büyüme, Dış Ticaret Açığı ve Dış Borç Stoku olduğu sonuçları elde edilmiştir.GENERAL KNOWLEDGEName and Surname : Bülent İlhanField : EconomicsProgramme : Politic EconomicsSupervisor : Professor Gülten DemirDegree Awarded and Date : Doctorate – February 2014Keywords : Current Account Deficit, Balance of PaymentsABSTRACTAN ANALYSIS OF CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT PROBLEM OF TURKEY AFTER 2000 AND ALTERNATIVE SUGGESTIONS OF SOLUTIONGradually increasing globalization after 1980 in parallel with the enormous increase in the volume of world trade, especially in the 2000s, Turkey's trade volume has expanded and accelerated. The high rate of import dependency and savings deficit caused to enlarge the foreign trade deficit. As a result, the current account deficit problem after 2000 has become an important problem of Turkey's economy.The purpose of this study is to analyze economic growth ratio, bugdet deficit, external trade balance, external debts, foreign direct investments, real exchange rate, real interest rate and energy prices which might be related as determinants of current account deficit by time series analysis. And the aim is to observe that how much the current account deficit is explained by the changes in these variables. The empirical study includes two analysis. In the first analysis, the causal relationship between each of the variables and the current account deficit analyzed and in what proportion of the current account deficit explained by these variables were investigated. In the second analysis, all variables were included in the analysis, which is more decisive on the current account deficit was investigated. In both assays, suggesting a causal relationship and the similarity of the determining variables Economic Growth, Foreign Trade Deficit and External Debt are obtained as results.
Bu çalışmada amacımız "Keynesyen Teori" çerçevesinde maliye politikasını incelemek ve bunun bağımsızlığını yeni kazanmış Azerbaycan Cumhuriyetinde uygulanış biçimini görmektir. Çalışmamız genel olarak 5 bölümden oluşmaktadır. İlk 4 bölümde maliye politikasını teorik bazda, 5.bölümde ise, Azerbaycan Cumhuriyetini model alarak, uygulama bazında incelemeye çalışacağız. Bundan dolayı çalışmaya öncelikle maliye politikasının gelişimi ve farklı iktisat okullarının maliye politikası yaklaşımını incelemekle başlayacağız. Bu bölümde genel olarak maliye politikasının doğuşundan gelişimine kadar geçtiği tarihsel süreç incelenecektir. Daha sonraki sayfalarda maliye politikasına Klasik, Keynesyen , Monetarist ve sonda Sosyalist yaklaşımlar genel hatlarıyla incelenecektir. Bundan sonraki bölümlerde inceleme Keynesyen çerçevede devam edecektir.2.bölümde maliye politikasının amaçları incelenecektir. Burada politika amaçları olan ekonomik dengeyi sağlamak, ekonomik kalkınmayı gerçekleştirmek ve ekonomide gelir dağılımı ve yaşam düzeyini iyileştirmek amaçları teker teker ele alınıp incelenecektir. Bölümün sonunda politika amaçlarının zaman zaman kendi aralarında çatışabileceğinin üzerinde durulacaktır.3.bölümde maliye politikasının araçları incelenecektir. Burada politika araçları olarak, kamu harcamaları, vergiler ve devlet borçlanması genel hatlarıyla anlatılacak, kamu harcamalarının sınıflandırılması, başlıca vergi çeşitleri ve devlet borçlanmasının nedenleri ve çeşitleri üzerinde durulacaktır.4.bölümde maliye politikasının amaçlarıyla araçları arasındaki etkileşim incelenecektir. Daha doğrusu amaçların gerçekleştirilmesi istikametinde araçların nasıl kullanıldığı incelenecektir. Burada her bir maliye politikası amacına ulaşmada politika araçlarının her birinin ayrı ayrılıkta etkinliği üzerinde durulacaktır.5.bölüm çalışmanın uygulama kısmıdır. Bu bölümde model ülke olarak Azerbaycan cumhuriyeti seçilmiştir. Bölüme öncelikle Azerbaycan'ın tanıtımı ve ekonominin genel makro ekonomik göstergelerinin yorumlanması ile başlanacaktır. Daha sonraki sayfalarda Azerbaycan ekonomisinde maliye politikası amaçlarının bağımsızlık sonrası durumu incelenecektir. Bölümün sonunda ise politika amaçlarının gerçekleştirilmesinde politika araçlarının hangi etkinlikte kullanıldığı incelenecektir. Çalışma sonuç ve önerilerle sona erecektir. FİSCAL POLİCY and THE EXAMPLE OF AZERBAİJAN"The Summary of ThesisOur objective in this study is to investigate the fiscal policy in the frame of "Keynesian Theory" and to see the appliance of this policy in the Republic of Azerbaijan which has reached its independency policy recently.Our study comprises 5 chapters. İn the first 4 chapters, we will try to study fiscal policy in theoritical base. In the last chapter we will try to investigate the fiscal policy in practical base by taking the Republic of Azerbaijan as pattern Therefore we will start this study by investigating the development of fiscal policy and the approaches of different economic schools to fiscal policy. İn this chapter, the historical process through which fiscal policy passed will be examined. İn following pages, Classical, Keynesian, Monetarist and Socialist approaches to fiscal policy will be investigated. İn following chapters, the research will continue in Keynesian frame.In the second chapter the objectives of fiscal policy will be searched. These objectives are to provide economical stability, to realize economic development, to make incame distribution more equally and to increase the standard of living. Each of these objectives will be investigated seperately. At the ehd of the capter, it will be shown that policy objectives could coincide with each other.İn the third chapter, the tools of fiscal policy will be examined. Here, as policy instrumentsgovernment expenditures, taxes andgetting into debt of government will be explained in general. Classification of goverment expenditures, types of taxes and the reasons behindgetting into debt of government will be emphasized.İn the fourth chapter the interaction between the objectives and the tools of fiscal policy will be investigated that how the tools of fiscal policy are used in the direction of realizing the objectives. At the ehd of this chapter we will emphasize that each of the tools has different efficiency while we are reaching each objective.The fifth chapter is application chapter. İn this chapter as the pattern country, the Republic of Azerbaijan is selected. The chapterwill be started by introduction of Azerbaijan and intrepretation of general macro economic indicators of the country. Then the condition of fiscal policy objectivesafter indepedency will be searched. At the ehd of the chapter it will be investigated that how efficiently policy instruments are used to reach policy objectives. The study will be ended by conclusion and propasals.
Her ülke ekonomisinde, belirli bir dönem içinde meydana gelen iyileşme veya gerilemenin temel göstergesi o ülkeye ilişkin makroekonomik verilerdir. Küresel çapta ülkelerin rekabet düzeyinin artması ve yabancı yatırımlar için daha cazip bir ülke konumuna gelebilmek gibi birçok olumlu sürecin gerçekleşmesi, öncelikle makro düzeyde başarılı bir ekonomik performansın sergilenmesiyle mümkündür. Bu kapsamda hem Türkiye'nin dış ticarette birinci sıradaki partnerinin AB olması hem de Türkiye ve Birlik arasında yürütülen tam üyelik müzakere süreci nedeniyle Türkiye ve AB ülkelerinin ekonomik görünümleri önem arz etmektedir.2008 yılı Eylül ayında ABD'de başlayan mortgage krizi, 2009 yılından itibaren tüm Dünya'yı etkisi altına alan küresel bir ekonomik krize dönüşmüş ve Türkiye ile AB ülkelerinde de kendini ciddi şekilde hissettirmiştir. Bu çalışmada, 2010 yılından itibaren Türkiye ve AB ülkelerinin; seçilmiş yedi makro gösterge (enflasyon, uzun dönem faiz oranı, kamu borcu, bütçe açığı, işsizlik, büyüme ve cari işlemler dengesi) üzerinden karşılaştırılması yapılmıştır. Seçilen ilk dört makro gösterge, aynı zamanda AB'nin Maastricht Kriterleridir. --- In each country's economy, the main indicator of improvement or decline are occurring within a specific period of macroeconomic data for that country. Many positive processes such as increasing the competitiveness level of the countries on a global scale and becoming a more attractive country for foreign investments are possible only through successful economic performance at the macro level. In this context, the EU and Turkey's foreign trade in the first row to become a partner, as well as economic outlook for Turkey and the EU countries due to the full membership negotiation process carried out between Turkey and the Union is important.The mortgage crisis, which started in the USA in September 2008, has turned into a global economic crisis that has affected the whole world since 2009 and has made itself felt seriously in the macro data of Turkey and the EU. In this study, since 2010, Turkey and the EU countries; seven selected macro indicators (inflation, long-term interest rate, public debt, budget deficit, unemployment, economic growth and current account balance) comparison has been made out. The first four selected macro indicators are also the Maastricht Criteria of the EU.
SUMMARYA great changement was occurring after fell down the Berlin Wall in East Europe, in 1989.The countries had begun to new period with high debts and inflation by these changements.East European countries have a common feature by carry out the transition period politics by rapidly in this process. So, it was necessity on stabilization politics but not easy.At result, privatization and restructure got an importance.I – THEORICAL AND CONSEPTIONAL FRAME OF MARKET ECONOMYFree market economy has the same philosophy and idea with liberalism. Economical liberalism is defended the free competition, reducing the customs taxes, import freedom and resisted to interference of state on the economy.Classical economy's base is economical freedom and market economy. Market economy is relying on free competition and private enterprise. Price mechanism and world prices are important. Interference of state must be in minimum levels. Public sector must be reduced. Basic factors such as wage, capital and foreign currency must reflect the real market prices, must get an importance to external trade.1-DEVELOPMENT OF MARKET ECONOMY1.1. CLASSIC REVIEWFree trade, specialization only on one field, annihilate the obstacles such as customs and quotas, interferences of state on the market are most important according to Adam Smith, which lived in 18th century.A specialization between nations must be obtained according to Ricardo. So, it must be an exchange on the entire world. 1.2. NEO-CLASSIC REVIEWAlfred Marshall, Leon Walras and Carl Menger is an echol. The state must be more active to improve the poor part of community and must create the opportunities on the market, get the taxes from revenues and wealth, finance the education, health, park and city planning, defence the personal freedom, private property and open markets, manufacture the public commodities.1.3. ORDO-LIBERALISM REVIEWIt is different from classic liberalism. Economical regularity is social which emerges in an evident process, not natural. Social and juridical standards emerge the economical system.Price, monetarily stability, sciences, stability and durability on economical politics are important to emerging of market economy.Basic aim is bring to existence an economical constitution.2- BASIC ELEMENTS OF MARKET ECONOMYBasic factors are enterprising, competition, economical ideas and attitudes.Enterprising is a person which makes unity the manufacturing factors, makes direct the investments, begins to motion by utilize the signals from internal and external markets, gets the share on productivity and determines the firm profit. Basic aim is profit.Competition is social event, protects the personal, which works with high productivity against to personal, which works with low productivity, uses the sources most effectively. Buyer and seller number must be too much in this system. Competition is opposed to monopolization but necessity laws and politics have to support it. ECONOMICAL IDEAS AND ATTITUDESIt includes price, wage, interest, hire and foreign currency. Price system occurs freely according to rate of request and demand conditions. At this straight, firms and consumers must carry out their decisions freely.3- MARKET MECHANISM FLOW AND ROLE OF SOURCE DISTRIBUTIONConsumers and producers have activities on the market economy. The prices are determined according to the lowest cost and to the highest profit.Ideal special future is high productivity, low profit and high production. Competition reduces the profit to the lowest level.Main mechanism on free market is price. If the relative scarcity is enough, request and demand is more or less equal.Producers and consumers may have a decision according to the price indicator and request and demand. This case makes lead the manufacturing, increases the alternatives, also economical activities make an harmony against to conditions.The evident features of market economy are free decision, liberty on preferences, a great price mechanism and competition. So, economical stability is obtainable.Interferences may apply on the market economy for public health, regulations on economical activities, protect the consumers. These motions are generally precautions to control of drugs and drink manufacturing and consumption, annihilation of harmful on public health, growth the power on economic morals, make grow the quality, regulation on manufacturing and marketing. The state may meddle with economy to development rapidly. For example, the state may encourage the saving, increase the rates of interest, decrease the taxes to get on the saving, provide the precautions on investment.The buyers and sellers cannot determine the price on one's own on free competition market. Otherwise monopoly, trust and cartels may occur, stability may out of order between commodity and services.Market economy may deviate from the rules on two main categories.Manufacturer, buyer and seller may make deviate from the rules. Especially trade unionization is effective on this deviation.The state may interfere in economy by taxes, if social and individual advantages different, it may deviate from competition market.The state is exist in every kind of economy and serves to people with harmony and politics and social philosophies of our age. Also it provides security, education and health services but it doesn't determine the prices. It is one of the biggest manufacturers at the same time.II – HISTORICAL WIEW TO BULGARIAN ECONOMY IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD OF FREE MARKET ECONOMY1. BASIC SOCIAL AND ECONOMICAL INDICATORS1.1. GENERALThe form of government is republic, capital is Sofia, Population is 8.297.000(1997), increasing of population is %0. 7, distinctive characteristics in common with Turkishs, Pomaks, Russians, Gipsies, Tatars, Jewishes are in 16 percent.Estimated agricultural area is 1/3 and woodland is 1/3 of all the land. Charcoal, petroleum, natural gas, ferrum and sources except metal are too much. Bulgaria can't use the money too much on surroundings cause of economical lacks.Too many people are migrated to Turkey reason of economical lacks after communism regime. Population is decreased year by year, but unemployment.2. BULGARIA BEFORE 1989Ottoman empire had governorship on the Bulgaria more 500 years till 1908. Then, Bulgarian Kingdom is founded in 1908. Stamboliyski is in powered from Farmer Party in 1920. A new fascism supporter government is founded but communists and farmers were outside of government.Bulgaria is allied with Germany in 1941. Although a new government was found in 1944, the republican regime with referendum is founded in 1946. The new constution is validated in 1947. Cercenkov is in powered in 1950, relations with U.S.A. were out of order and membership of United Nations was validity in 1955.The new constitution is validated in 1971. T.Jivkow is in powered continually, became arrested cause of irregularity in 1990 and then, again a new constitution is validated. Communist Party is made to take out of only one party. In that year, state's name is changed to Republic of Bulgaria and removed the communist symbols from flag. Privatizational laws are validated with Jelev in 1992. The Government of Videnov is contraried the privatization in 1994.Peter Stoyanov is Nato's supporter and he was president in 1996. United Democratic Forces is in powered with 52 percent of vote after selections in 1997.2.1. COMECON AND COLLAPSING OF SYSTEMComecon is a union that emerged by East European Countries. Bulgarian economy has begun to transition period with some negative ness like other East European countries causes of political incompetence and dissociating end of 1980s.Bulgaria which had more than 60 percent of export to associate but it had couldn't find the new markets cause of inadequate ship of quality standards and had an old technology. Foreign currency reserves are high level. It has too many debts, political incompetent ship in the land. Financial system is not conformity to market economy and also could not claim 2 million dollars of money owing from Iraq because of golf war. So, Bulgaria couldn't save from crisis because of above reasons.2.2 GENERAL ECONOMICAL DEVELOPMENT AND SECTORSBulgarian manufacturing industry basically is founded on textile, wooden engrave, leather products and food prep rationing sectors.Bulgaria had realisation the attacks on the heavy industry that supported by S.S.C.B. after 2nd world war.Production of electro-mechanic and electronic goods in manufacturing sector is reached to an important share since 1970s.The biggest natural wealth of Bulgaria is productive earths. There are not important minerals in Bulgaria.In the following period of 2nd world war, metallurgy and chemical production had an importance. Industry sector had old technology. Its competition is losted the power with disunited of the Comecon.Productivity rates on industry are grown with economical reforms that started in 1979. Economical growing is dynamically continued in spite of reducing the productivity on agriculture sector, building sector and investments in Bulgaria. Especially, price volatility on agriculture sector is a reason of suspicion about real value of growth in 1988 according to 1987.Productions on agriculture and industry of Bulgaria are reduced according to statistics. Main problem on agriculture sector is delivery prices of goods.A stagnation indicator on Bulgarian economy is weakness of building and construction sector. Manufacturing products such as cement and weawing is in necessity. Manufacturing level is inadequate on that area and also unqualificationed organisations have been affected.2.3 - FOREIGN TRADEThere are no definite results on foreign trade reason of inadequate of numerical data's.However, export is increased up to the rate of 4 percent in 1988 and import is reduced to the rate of 1.8 percent. Bulgaria finance deficit is 600 million dollars result of trade with west countries in 1998. Tourism revenues are positive. Trade connections with Turkey are weak according to another East European countries.2.4 – PERESTROICA POLITICSThe new age on economy with state council's decision is started in January 9,1989. Activities to get the indepences of firms are velocitied. At the same time, this decision is more benefit to foreign investors too.3. 1989 – 1997 TRANSITION PERIOD3.1 – ECONOMICAL REFORM ACTIVITIESAlteration is started in east block countries after 1989 and together with this alteration. Comecon is losted the activity. So, idle capacities are commenced and Bulgaria is losted the production markets.The reforms are making started by new government in February 1991. External trade regime is liberalisation in one direction; this is one of the import nest factors of the reforms. With a decision is accepted in 1989, basic of economical reforms are occurred. Firms had equal rights to execution of economical activities. The laws related to foreign investment are validated in 1992.Commercial banks have gone to consolidation. Prices had freed except 11 basic consumption. Economical activities, government status on economy, foreign trade and foreign exchange regime, price regulations, privatization, tax systems are reorganized about foreign investors.3.2. SECTORAL CONSTITUTIONIndustrial sector had the over 50 percent of share on economy until 1990s. 11 private sector's share with service and trade sector approached to 60 percent between 1992 and 1997.SECTORSProductivity with old technologies on industrial sector is at low level. Engineering sector is developed. Products of textile sector are manufactured at high quality.CHEMICALSChemical products that have an important mark on export of Bulgaria. They were 1,096 milliard dollars with 22,3 percent in 1997 and 983 million dollars with 19.4 percent of total export in 1998.AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND TOBACCORate of plan tablelands are 34 percent in Bulgaria. Totally 304 firms are active on food, drink and tobacco sector.METALLURGY AND MINERSHIPIron product is 6.2 percent and other than iron is 6.8 percent on all of industry in 1998. In 1997, metallurgy sector is grown up to 117.2 percent with 529 million dollars in total amount of export in Bulgaria.MACHINEShare of machine sector is 13.8 percent in all of industry. Principal are; Machine parts, tractor, bus, ship, building and auto spare parts.CONSTRUCTIONPrivate firms in the sector have share with 13 percent in 1991. That share is grown to 62 percent in 1995 but then; it is reduced reason of financial inadequate ships.TOURISMTourism revenues are approximately 280 million dollars in 1995.4.5 million of transits and totally 8 million tourists are visited the Bulgaria in 1996.3.3. TRADE AFTER ECONOMICAL REFORMSExport of Bulgaria is totally 4.9 milliard dollars in 1997. The import nest export products are fuel oil, other fuels, cooper and its products and nuclear reactors. Import is 4.5 milliard dollars in 1997 and included the product such as mineral fuels, nuclear reactor heaters and spare parts, electric machines, mineral substances, cotton, synthetic fibres, cereals, auto and tractors.3.4. EXTERNAL DEBTSRate of the external debts to export revenues were 249.9 Percent in 1993 but then, back to 188.2 percent in 1994.Official external debts were 10.363 dollars in the end of 1997.3.5. FOREIGN INVESTORS EXTERNAL CAPITALMost investments with 636.2 million dollars by foreigners are made in 1997. This amount is 526 million dollars in 1998. Principal foreign investors are European countries and U.S.A. A new foreigner investment law is prepared in Oct 1997. Main sectors to investment are industry, trade, finance and tourism.3.6. COMMERCIAL BANKINGState banks are privatization by associate. Regulations relate to control of banking are valitidied by government. In the middle of 1997, a new law on banking are validated after economical crisis in 1996, Central Bank Law are rebuilt. High levels of capital and capital qualifications are obligationed.3.7. PRIVATIZATIONPrivatization is started with foundation transformation and privatization belongs to state and municipalities in April 1992. Privatization Agency is built-up. Privatization is realization with totally 836 million dollars between Jan 1,1993 and Dec 30,1998. Its part of 421.4 million dollars is in 1997 and part of 116 million dollars is realization in 1998.Foundations like ports, telecommunication and, etc.are out of privatization by laws. 95 percent of state firms transformed to form of private limited or nationalization. Share of these firms are belong to state.III. BULGARIA IN EUROPAN UNION AND CONNECTIONS WITH TURKEY1. BULGARIAN ECONOMY AND CONNECTIONS WITH TURKEYTest and certification operations, metal products except iron, chemical products, cereals, operational petroleum. Products are important substances from Bulgaria to Turkey.Although weaving products, food, chemical products, leather and stout leather products, glass, ceramics, brick products are ones of important from Turkey to Bulgaria.1.1. CONTENTS OF FREE TRADE AGREEMENT BETWEEN TURKEY AND BULGARIAAll taxes and restrictictions on industrial products by signed on European Agreement between European Union and Bulgaria in Mar 8,1993 and validated in Dec 31,1993 will be removed till 2002.Turkey and Bulgaria made easy to particularization into agricultural products market by reduced the taxes for between their selves.End of signed acts, 131 products of 446 that stated to Turkey and 1141 goods of existing on European Union Agreement are liberalization by remove from list of sensitive products.Foreign companies had a partnership rights with corporations and individuals and also foreign individuals had a right on economical activities by law of keeping foreign investors, which is validated in 1992. Same economical rights are recognized between foreigners and Bulgarians and also getting unlimited share from exist companies and companies that will be found.2. CONNECTIONS WITH EUROPEAN UNION AND FINANCIAL PORTREIT OF BULGARIA2.1. CONNECTION WITH EUROPEAN UNION OF BULGARIAIn the autumn 1989, Berlin wall is demolished and this motion make united the European that had divided to east and west after 2nd world war. Comecon's mean is continuing the economical dependent ship to Soviet Union. But, most east and west European countries reject it. After these European Union augmented economical and political supports to that countries reason of carry out and conclude the reform, which is started in middle and east European countries.Firstly, a group includes the Turkey is formed by 24 of OECD countries. G24s are transferred to entrust with coordination of support to the European Union Commission.That commission is functionizationed the Phare program that helps on financial and technical areas to Poland and Hungary. Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and Romania in Sept.1990, Albanian, Estonia, Leetonia and Livonia in Jan.1992 and Slovenia in Aug.1992 are included by Phare program.Military regulations on security of West European losted the importance but they are already securely areas.Main political aims that related to Middle and East European countries of European Unions are explained below;a- Encouragement of liberal democratic system with respectful of law's superiority.b- to be sense on surroundingsc- to prevent the ethnical collidesd- to prevent the migration to foreign countries at the west.e- Phare program and encouragement of free market economy from planned economy.2.2. WHAT IS THE PHARE PROGRAM?Phare program's aim is build the encourage mental conditions to the market economy and to take pains about investments on economies of Middle and East Europe countries. This program includes unfinancable fields by traditional external supports. That supports on the program is formed by credits and encouragements and used for pilot projects related to reorganization of associations.Bulgaria is taken a support of 10.6 millions ECU by include of Phare program.European Union don't use only Phare program as a tool on politics related to Middle and East Europe countries, except itIncludes the programs within own constitution such as ERASMUS and COMETT.2.3. FIRST PERIOD (before 1989)In this period; trading is developed between Middle and East European countries that named as COMECON COUNTRIES but couldn't show the same developments against to West Europe in European Union.Soviet Union takes the priority on exporting with countries. Bulgaria is the develop pest country on trade with Soviet Union.2.4 TRANSITION PERIOD (1989-1992)The great changements occurred on trade in Soviet Union and Middle and East Europe countries from starting the reforms in 1989 to 1992.From 1989,trade and partnership agreements signed with Hungary and Poland then, with Czechoslovakia in 1990,also Bulgaria and Romania in 1991. At the same time, rejection is started on amount of restrictions. Exporting is increased between Middle and East European countries, Soviet Union and European Union other than below too;Devaluation in the countries other than Hungary,- Workings to join into the West European markets reason of re-emerging the losted ones in East European- Import is on peak-level from those countries to Germany after unitized the East and West Europe.2.5. EUROPEAN AGREEMENTSEuropean agreements are acted end of 1991.Bulgaria-Europe agreement's date of signature: Mar8, 1993Date of being inforce: Dec 31,1995Temporarily agreement: Dec 31,1992European agreement has been in force in Bulgaria, end of 1995. European agreements are partnership agreements that signed by based on 238th paragraph of Roma agreement and Maastricht agreement. According to that state, increasing of export is an prestipulation to growth the economy with stability.3. SUCCEED OF STABILITY PROGRAM IN BULGARIABulgaria signed on an agreement with IMF to pass over the economical hardships and started the reforms in 1991.Economy is grown at the rates of 2.1 percent in 1995.In 1997,economy has the new crisis related to Yugoslavia crisis and so, Bulgaria signed on a new agreement with IMF.Leva is fixed with 20 DM and 1000 Bulgarian Leva to 1 DM and constructral reforms is started to gain the speed.Economy in Bulgaria grown to positive from 1994 but to the 10.9 percent in 1996.- Inflation rates (%) in Republic of Bulgaria; 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 199882,2 72,8 96,2 62 123,1 1082,3 22,3After the stand-by agreement with IMF, inflation approached to 22.3 percent in 1998.Annual average of inflation is expected as 7.3 percent in 1999 and 9.0 percent in 2000.Bulgaria is the poorest country according to other east European countries candidate to membership of EU. Bulgarian Leva is determined by rejected the 3 zeros from Detsch Mark. So, new Leva is make related on euro at the rates of 1.95583:euro 1 (Lvl:DMI ).CONCLUSION:Bulgaria is declared the moratorium reason of hardness's to find an external debt, to refund the capital and interests of external debt.While external debt is 10.6-milliard dollars end of 1990,it has been 12.2 milliard dollars, end of 1993. So, started to paces towards to market economy in Feb 1991. Annual inflation is reduced from 338.5 percent in 1991 to 79.4 percent in 1992.The debts of managements of state are ruined the budget and also a reason to broken balance on economy too.The crisis on foreign currency is occurred in Mar 1994. Reforms have been out of control at the result of that crisis.Leva is devaluated as 100 percent and inflation is reduced to 90 percent on annual average. At this parallel, financial and revenue politics, money and its value are controlled. The debts to foreign countries are decreased to 9.8 milliard dollars with precautions in 1994 and end of 1996.Financial balance are obtained again in the first months of 1995, reduced the inflation and also rate of interests to 72 percent.Rate of exchange (Leva/$) was 503 percent between Jan 1 and Feb 12,1997. Especially, that increasing was 20-percent/each day in Feb 1997.Rate of interest was 300 percent in Sep.1996. 14 Banks are bankrupted in that period. Bulgaria had been 1st of the world from inflation increasing speed of view.Inflation, devaluation, unemployment and also wages are on the lowest level in transition period in Bulgaria. Incoming per person is decreased 50 percent between 1989 and 1995.Annual criminal events are increased 3 times more after 1990. Money committee had formed by advice of IMF in Jul 1997. 1Deutsche Mark is indexed on 1 Leva.Qualified personnel with educationed on technical areas is a great potential force of Bulgarian economy.Bulgaria will be completed the transition period when it became to membership of European Union.