Suchergebnisse

Publisher's description: ``Describes basic concepts of rational decision making and decision analysis to the reader -- offers insights that help to systematically analyze decision making problems in professional and private life and helps the reader to come up with a problem solution based on a higher degree of rationality -- updating/inclusion of current research, in-depth discussion of selected topics, additional exercises/case studies. This textbook conveys methods that can improve decision making processes in various fields such as economics, politics, and medicine as well as in personal life. Areas of focus are decision making under conflicting objectives, decision making under risk and uncertainty, decision making with incomplete information about individual preferences or probabilities, and the consideration of time preferences. Special emphasis is placed on the procedures and concepts applicability. Explicit sample applications show the methods benefit for a wide area of decision making problems. Exercises from daily life make it easy for the reader to understand the key insights from decision analysis."" \par This English edition corresponds to the 5th German one. Hence this book is close to completeness. Yet in this reviewer's opinion there are two comments: First a section with hints on the problems for solution is needed. Second a comparison with decision making in animals may be useful since recently [{\it D. Sumpter}, Collective animal behavior. Princeton Univ. Press (2010)] it was shown that collective animal behavior is highly efficient.

Decision Making is a case study of the decision to raise the Bank Rate by 2% (to 7%) on 19 September 1957. Reconsiders selected aspects of the original study in the light of files recently released in the Public Record Office and of other publications since the book was published. (Abstract amended)

IN A SENSE UNINTENDED BY THE AUTHORS, THESE TWO CLOSELY RELATED BOOKS PRESENT A STORY WITHIN A STORY. BOTH RATIONAL DECISION MAKING AND DECISIONS IN CRISIS ARE STRIKING EFFORTS TO UNDERSTAND THE DECISION-MAKING SUBSTANCE AND PROCESS OF A KEY ACTOR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IMBROGHO-ISRAEL. IN ADDITION, THE AUTHORS STRIVE TO EVALUATE THE QUALITY OF THE DECISION MAKING CHOICES AGAINST CURRENT INSIGHTS OFFERED BY NATIONAL AND OTHER DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORKS. AS WELL, THOSE ANALYSES REVEAL IMPORTANT ELEMENTS OF DECISION-MAKING CHOICE BY THE AUTHORS THEMSELVES. THEY THUS SHOW THE STATE OF THE ART AS IT EXISTS, AND THEY PROVIDE CLUES OF WHERE THE FIELD MUST MOVE IN THE FUTURE. WHILE THESE ARE CLOSELY RELATED BOOKS, THEY ARE NOT IDENTICAL. NEITHER METHODOLOGICALLY NOR SUBSTANTIVELY DO THEY COVER THE SAME GROUND. INDEED, ONE OF THE MOST TROUBLING ASPECTS OF READING BOTH STUDIES, AT LEAST THE RESPECTIVE COVERAGE OF THE 1967 CRISIS, IS THAT FREQUENTLY ONE WONDERS IF HE IS READING ABOUT THE SAME CRISIS AT ALL. THIS IS EVEN MORE DISTURBING WHEN ONE TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THAT DATA AND ADVICE WERE OFFERED WILLINGLY BY MICHAEL BRECHEN TO THE AUTHORS OF THE OTHER STUDY. FOR INSTANCE, BRECHER FINDS THE HOLOCAUST SYNDROME A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON THE ATTITUDINAL PRISM OF MAJOR ACTORS IN 1967, YET STEIN AND TANTER FAIL EVEN TO MENTION IT AS A FACTOR IN THEIR BOUNDED RATIONALITY PRESENTATION.