Suchergebnisse

Bounded rationality theory, first developed by Herbert Simon (1947), is one of the first contributions to political science that explicitly focuses on decision processes and links cognitive science to research on decision processes at the level of both the individual and organisations. In line with more recent behavioral research, bounded rationality theory holds that public policy design should build on a realistic model of human behavior. The article analyzes the decision processes of Danish farmers against their responses to two versions of pesticide taxes implemented in Denmark, one in 1998 and the other in 2013. The two taxes achieved different success rates, although neither version achieved the pesticide reductions predicted by ex-ante models that built on the assumption of farmers as economically rational. We find that farmers' decision processes are consistent with features of bounded rationality, which may partially explain why the taxes were not as effective as predicted. However, with the second version of the tax adopted in 2013, the tax rate was doubled, which may have prompted farmers to give higher priority to economic objectives, possibly explaining why this recent version of the tax has been more successful.

Cost-benefit analysis have been attacked by many critics because of its implicit ethical assumptions. The normative content of the method is at odds with the common attitude that economists should analyze how to reach given goals, while determination of the goals should be left to the politicians. This paper presents a descriptive model of decision makers' behavior, demonstrating that rational, benevolent politicians will only in special cases accept the evaluation of projects resulting from a cost-benefit analysis. An alternative approach to project evaluation, which allows individual decision makers to rank projects in accordance with their own ethical views, is presented. In this framework, estimates of willingness to pay are generally not required. On the other hand, information about groups that are significantly affected by the project, as well as physical unit information on changes in the supply of public goods, is crucial.

We consider the problem of approximating the values and the optimal policies in risk-averse discounted Markov Decision Processes with in nite horizon. We study the properties of the rolling horizon and the approximate rolling horizon procedures, proving bounds which imply the convergence of the procedures when the horizon length tends to in nity. We also analyze the e ects of uncertainties on the transition probabilities, the cost functions and the discount factors. ; Nous considérons le problème de l'approximation de la fonction de valeur et des politiques optimales dans un processus de décision Markovien avec actualisation et aversion au risque. Nous étudions les propriétés de la procédure de l'horizon roulant et son approximation, et montrons des bornes qui impliquent la convergence de ces procédures quand l'horizon de temps tend vers l'in ni. Nous analysons aussi les e ets d'incertitudes sur les probabilités de transition, les fonctions de coût et les facteurs d'actualisation.

We consider the problem of approximating the values and the optimal policies in risk-averse discounted Markov Decision Processes with in nite horizon. We study the properties of the rolling horizon and the approximate rolling horizon procedures, proving bounds which imply the convergence of the procedures when the horizon length tends to in nity. We also analyze the e ects of uncertainties on the transition probabilities, the cost functions and the discount factors. ; Nous considérons le problème de l'approximation de la fonction de valeur et des politiques optimales dans un processus de décision Markovien avec actualisation et aversion au risque. Nous étudions les propriétés de la procédure de l'horizon roulant et son approximation, et montrons des bornes qui impliquent la convergence de ces procédures quand l'horizon de temps tend vers l'in ni. Nous analysons aussi les e ets d'incertitudes sur les probabilités de transition, les fonctions de coût et les facteurs d'actualisation.

We consider the problem of approximating the values and the optimal policies in risk-averse discounted Markov Decision Processes with in nite horizon. We study the properties of the rolling horizon and the approximate rolling horizon procedures, proving bounds which imply the convergence of the procedures when the horizon length tends to in nity. We also analyze the e ects of uncertainties on the transition probabilities, the cost functions and the discount factors. ; Nous considérons le problème de l'approximation de la fonction de valeur et des politiques optimales dans un processus de décision Markovien avec actualisation et aversion au risque. Nous étudions les propriétés de la procédure de l'horizon roulant et son approximation, et montrons des bornes qui impliquent la convergence de ces procédures quand l'horizon de temps tend vers l'in ni. Nous analysons aussi les e ets d'incertitudes sur les probabilités de transition, les fonctions de coût et les facteurs d'actualisation.

Corporate Action namely every action of the issuer that gives equal rights to all shareholders such as Dividends, Right Issues and Stock Splits. Dividend is the distribution of company profits to shareholders based on the percentage of ownership of capital owners. Management decisions in seeking new capital or funds through the stock exchange floor are usually for debt repayment actions, company goals, expansion through product innovation in improving and maintaining company stability for better prospects in the future so as to encourage the government to build a better economy in the next period. Corporate action applies to all companies, not limited to public companies. Several forms of corporate action that are generally carried out by issuers include the distribution of dividends, both cash and shares

Political elections exemplify complex decision processes in human populations. Data of proportional elections show a striking feature at different spatial scales, across years, and for several democracies: when ranking the parties according to their number of voters, the amount of votes grows exponentially with the party's rank. We develop a mechanistic mathematical model of birth and death of parties and voter grouping based only on word of mouth and not on political contents, close to neutral models used in evolutionary biology (Ewens sampling formula), or Hubbell's model of species biodiversity. Data and model agree strikingly well. The model explains, for instance, the steady loss of big-tent parties in France and Germany by the increasing number of parties standing for elections. A cannibalism effect (parties/candidates at a given rank systematically withdraw votes from others) can be identified. The interpretation and consequences of the rational or lack thereof of voters' choices for modern democracies are discussed.

66 pages ; The distress and disruption caused by extreme natural events has stimulated considerable interest in understanding and improving the decision-making processes that determine a manager's adjustment to natural hazards. Technological solutions to the problem of coping with hazards have typically been justified by a computation of benefits and costs that assume the people involved will behave in what the policy maker considers to be an economically rational way. However, it has slowly become evident that technological solutions, by themselves, are inadequate without knowledge of how they will affect decision making. In reviewing the wide range of adjustments to Gangetic floods or Nigerian drought or Norwegian avalanche, it has been observed that attempts to control nature and determine government policy will not succeed without a better understanding of the interplay among psychological, economic, and environmental factors as they determine the adjustment process.

In the first part of the thesis, a literature review is presented. In this literature review, industrial areas in the Netherlands are discussed, leading to the conclusion that industrial areas are important for realizing sustainable economic growth in the Netherlands. Industrial areas play an important role in accommodating employment, in stimulating local and regional economies, and in creating a high value added. Furthermore, I conclude that process features have a significant influence on the outcome of industrial area (re)development projects. Subsequently, the most important problem aspects of the current industrial area planning approach are discussed, together with several causes of these problems. It is argued that most of these problematic failures can be traced back to one main problem: the rapid obsolescence of the existing stock of industrial areas. The dimensions of the Dutch industrial area redevelopment task affirm this. This creates a large necessity for redevelopment. However, based upon the disappointing figures on yearly realized redevelopment projects and on the low spatial yields of actually realized redevelopment projects, it is concluded that the execution of industrial area redevelopment projects stagnates. When starting up a redevelopment project in the current increasingly complex and rapidly changing environment, interdependent negotiation processes within and among organizations appear to be problematic, consuming substantial time and effort. Focus within this research lies therefore on studying, supporting and accommodating the consensus-building process within redevelopment projects. The point of departure in this research is the postulate that the main cause of the occurring stagnation in industrial area redevelopment is the absence of a well-functioning process governance system. Several authors support this statement; they posit that the regional arena is the appropriate level for executing such governance. Because of a lack of insight into effective ways to implement a governance system, and because of the presumed advantages related to the acceleration of industrial area redevelopment processes when gaining this insight, the general research objective is as follows: 'To explore ways to effectively support the governance of involved stakeholders' choice behavior, in order to stimulate the current decision-making processes in industrial area redevelopment projects'. Thus, governance – and especially meta-governance – is a promising approach for application to complex industrial area redevelopment projects. Several best-practice industrial area redevelopment projects reveal that centrally governing such alliances contributes to project success. The aim of meta-governance within industrial area redevelopment projects is to establish cooperation between relevant parties, in order to realize a number of functions and purposes from a public, social importance, through the establishment of one central governing agency, responsible for the management of the decision-making process. In Dutch industrial area redevelopment, regional development companies seem most appropriate for executing this central governance role. Assuming that meta-governance can be a solution to the occurring problems in the Dutch industrial area redevelopment market, it is essential to analyze the consensusfinding processes, as well as causes of tension and conflict, in order to theoretically support governing agencies in managing decision-making processes. Therefore, the specific goal of the research is to better understand how individual and interactive decision-making of the most important actors in industrial area redevelopment processes can be modeled, in order to analyze and predict the occurrence of cooperation or conflict, and how this decision-making can be influenced by a regional governing agency. A better understanding of these processes is a key requirement for the development of a decision support tool for this regional governing agency, in order to support the acceleration of industrial area redevelopment projects. A formal model of the collaborative decision process has not been developed for this domain, incorporating a governance approach. Therefore, several available techniques for analyzing both individual and interactive decision-making are explored in the second part of the thesis. From this, it is concluded that the discrete choice approach seems applicable for modeling individual choice behavior of actors. Furthermore, the application of game theory seems very interesting for modeling interactive and interdependent choice behavior. In order to make a game-theoretic model that is suitable for studying strategic interactions in industrial area redevelopment, a relatively new approach is advocated in which game theory is combined with a multiattribute trade-off technique. Eventually, the application of game theory leads to an insight in the occurrence of conflicts, and in the causes of these conflicts. The 2x2 game is regarded as most appropriate for application in this research because this game type has been used very often in conflict modeling and conflict management, and it suits the real world negotiation processes in which two players are involved, each roughly having two strategies. Within 2x2 games, three tools are most utilizable for solving conflicts: (1) changing the information of the involved players; (2) changing the payoffs of the players; and (3) changing the rules of the game, focusing on the sequence of decisionmaking and the possible allowance of communication in the game. Because the research focuses on static 2x2 games of complete information, it is concluded that gaining insight in the second tool is most feasible and interesting. In the third part, the results are represented. Firstly, the individual choice behavior of involved actors is modeled, thereby giving a better and more systematical insight in stakeholders' preferences when accepting or rejecting a development plan, in the (dis)similarities between both stakeholder groups' preferences in making that choice, and in the most important points of interest when composing a development plan proposal. Resulting data analysis showed that the plan attributes 'technical quality' and 'cost coverage' are important for both stakeholder groups when choosing a plan proposal. A high level of these attributes in a plan results in a high probability of being chosen, while a low level results in a low choice probability. Besides this, companies find the attribute 'development speed' very important when choosing a plan, and municipalities value 'architectural quality' highly. Furthermore, municipalities proved to be less demanding in accepting industrial area redevelopment plan proposals. Secondly, the interaction between involved stakeholders is modeled as an interdependent process, using a relative novel approach in which conjoint analysis and game theory are combined, in order to explain the occurrence of cooperation or conflict within Dutch industrial areas redevelopment negotiations. Data analysis reveals that there is one major source of conflicts; stakeholders choosing not to cooperate based upon the presented negotiation setting. A more in-depth analysis of negotiation settings ending up in mutual cooperation demonstrated that the appraisal of both stakeholders for the proposed development plan is the most influential factor, together with an eventual absolute difference between both players' appraisals. This leads to the conclusion that the content of proposed plans is very important in such negotiations; factors like power and risks play a secondary role. Thirdly, a model is created that supports the decision-making of a central governing agency. This model is based upon the results of the individual and interactive choice models, giving recommendations on how to put meta-governance into practice in industrial area redevelopment. The model consists of three major steps: (1) giving assistance in assessing the initial state of the negotiation; (2) calculating whether the possible conflict occurrence can be prevented by marginally changing the payoffs of both players; and (3) indicating how the equalizing of appraisals can be put into practice. This final step gives insight in the contribution of specific changes in plan proposals to solving the conflicts that are discovered in the first part. After testing the model, it is concluded that altering payoffs in games in order to avoid conflicts is very effective in these games. Furthermore, these payoffs can often be altered through the use of minimal resources. In cases in which the municipality values the proposed plan lower than the company – raising the levels of the attributes technical quality, architectural quality, and value development results most often in an equaling of both players' appraisals. Furthermore, the attribute architectural quality functions most often as the only solution. Reciprocally, in cases in which the company has a lower plan proposal appraisal, raising the levels of the attributes development speed, technical quality, and cost coverage most often results in an equal plan proposal appraisal. In general, tools are already available for executing interventions on above-mentioned attributes. Thus, focus should be on actual execution of the governance task, not on adding tools to the existing instrumental palette. Concluding, a model is created with which it is possible to give recommendations concerning the decision-making of a central governing agency in different possible industrial area redevelopment negotiations. It entails a new, structured way of solving conflicts, which is empirically testable, and delivers some real world recommendations.

Generically, farm-scale crop protection decision making may be characterized as a process beginning with an initial assessment of disease risk followed by the accumulation of evidence related to current risk factors, leading to a risk prediction. What action is then taken depends on the response of the decision owner, taking into account previous experience, advice from trusted sources, alongside policy or legislative constraints on crop protection practice that are intended to mitigate any impacts that may transcend the farm scale. This process has commonalities with decision-making in the strategy of preventive medicine. This article delves into the clinical literature in order to provide a perspective on some recent discussions of shared decision making presented there, discussions that relate to issues also faced in sustainable crop protection.

The U.S. military uses modeling and simulation as a tool to help meet its warfighting needs. A key element within military simulations is the ability to accurately represent human behavior. This is especially true in a simulation's ability to emulate realistic military decisions. However, current decision models fail to provide the variability and flexibility that human decision makers exhibit. Further, most decision models are focused on tactical decisions and ignore the decision process of senior military commanders at the operational level of warfare. In an effort to develop a better decision model that would mimic the decision process of a senior military commander, this research sought to identify an underlying cognitive process and computational techniques that could adequately implement it. Recognition-Primed Decision making (RPD) was identified as one such model that characterized this process. Multiagent system simulation was identified as a computational system that could mimic the cognitive process identified by RPD. The result was a model of RPD called RPDAgent. Using an operational military decision scenario, decisions produced by RPDAgent were compared against decisions made by military officers. It was found that RPDAgent produced decisions that were equivalent to its human counterparts. RPDAgent's decisions were not optimum decisions, but decisions that reflected the variability inherent in those made by humans in an operational military environment.

This paper studies associations between the use of formal decision-making processes in e-Government projects and the outcomes of these projects. By doing so, this study contributes to the decision sciences as well as to the fields of e-Government, information systems and public administration. Data were collected using a survey conducted among Swedish national government agencies and municipalities. Variables that have been investigated are the defining and weighting of objectives, resource allocation and assessment of whether objectives are met, as well as to what extent risk analysis was conducted. The results reveal that successful projects distinguish themselves by involving more activities related to formal decision-making procedures, especially with respect to stakeholder inclusion and weighting of objectives. These initiatives also manage more types of risks, including organizational issues. Future research should continue to explore the possible benefits of formal decision-making and risk analysis in e-Government.

This paper studies associations between the use of formal decision-making processes in e-Government projects and the outcomes of these projects. By doing so, this study contributes to the decision sciences as well as to the fields of e-Government, information systems and public administration. Data were collected using a survey conducted among Swedish national government agencies and municipalities. Variables that have been investigated are the defining and weighting of objectives, resource allocation and assessment of whether objectives are met, as well as to what extent risk analysis was conducted. The results reveal that successful projects distinguish themselves by involving more activities related to formal decision-making procedures, especially with respect to stakeholder inclusion and weighting of objectives. These initiatives also manage more types of risks, including organizational issues. Future research should continue to explore the possible benefits of formal decision-making and risk analysis in e-Government.

Decision-makers need to make choices to improve public health. Population-based newborn screening (NBS) is considered as one strategy to prevent adverse health outcomes and address rare disease patients' needs. The aim of this study was to describe key characteristics of decisions for funding new NBS programmes in Europe. We analysed past decisions using a conceptual framework. It incorporates indicators that capture the steps of decision processes by health care payers. Based on an internet survey, we compared 22 decisions for which answers among two respondents were validated for each observation. The frequencies of indicators were calculated to elicit key characteristics. All decisions resulted in positive, mostly unrestricted funding. Stakeholder participation was diverse focusing on information provision or voting. Often, decisions were not fully transparent. Assessment of NBS technologies concentrated on expert opinion, literature review and rough cost estimates. Most important appraisal criteria were effectiveness (i.e., health gain from testing for the children being screened), disease severity and availability of treatments. Some common and diverging key characteristics were identified. Although no evidence of explicit healthcare rationing was found, processes may be improved in respect of transparency and scientific rigour of assessment.