Suchergebnisse

Spanish Mediterranean coasts are known as famous tourism destinations and have been under the construction of tourist accommodations and second home developments for several decades. These areas have faced with unsustainability symptoms resulted from the seasonality nature of mass tourism and sprawl form of urban land use. In this situation, international retirement migration has appeared as a phenomenon impacting in these coastal areas while the recent demographic projections show the increase of ageing in Europe. This fact, will generate changes in demography of international tourists of these destinations and require a specific evaluation according to elderly preferences. In such a pattern, European visitors who are retired or getting retired within 20 years are the target group of this research to seek two aims: first, evaluating the geographic-urban attributes that this person does consider in selecting the location of their desired second home, particularly for retirement period; and the second aim is evaluating their desired residential preferences. Regarding the first aim, the analysis includes evaluating the physical and quantitative urban factors that could change or influence tourists¿ evaluation toward decision of buying or renting a second home in coastal areas. These variables are categorized in built environment, socio-cultural environment and natural environment categories. In addition, the role of Mediterranean cities¿ characteristics as a probable attraction of the area in such a decision is evaluated. The second aim, refers to the residential preferences by an approach on the desirability of assisted living facilities for the second home. Moreover, regarding the seasonal use of tourist accommodation in coastal areas, as a prospective adjective, it¿s intended to assess if it¿s possible to promote a model of second home for retirees in such tourist accommodation during the low season of tourism. As the study area, Costa Brava, a famous tourism destination in the northeastern part of the Spanish Mediterranean coast, is selected in which second home has a remarkable share in its real estate market. The research by a quantitative approach is conducted through a questionnaire including listed geographic, urban and residential variables in Likert scale and 191 fulfilled questionnaires gathered. Findings showed that in addition to the natural and cultural attractions of the area, there are some attributes in built environment category indicated as important in selecting the second home area; these factors, mainly refer to the accessibility concept; for instance, maintained streets and sidewalks and the proximity to shopping and hospital. Moreover, the study focussed on people interested in having a second home in the area, to assess the attractiveness of the area for this potential second homers. Findings regarding the Mediterranean urban aspects, showed no significant interest in these aspects among this interested people. In housing typology, a high interest was indicated in detached and semi-detached house forms for desired second home, whereas development of such housings is in contrast to the traditional compact form of Mediterranean cities. Evaluating other residential preferences and desired assisted services concluded to a remarkable interest in these services and in other maintenance methods rather than self-maintenance of second homes. Results propose the possibility to develop a new model of second homes for retirees addressing further studies on transformation of actual tourist accommodations. In conclusion implications resulted from the analysis, stress the importance of elder-friendly environments and the environmental protection issues. Moreover, the significant cultural attractive attributes in this research, such as the attitude of locals proposed suggestions in public policy and regional planning. ; Las Costas Mediterráneas Españolas son consideradas famosos destinos turísticos que han estado bajo la construcción de alojamientos turísticos y desarrollos de segunda residencia en épocas recientes. Estas regiones se han enfrentado a síntomas de insostenibilidad, como producto del turismo masivo con carácter estacional, y la expansión urbana. Ante esta situación, la migración internacional de jubilados ha figurado como un fenómeno impactando en estas zonas costeras mientras, las proyecciones demográficas actuales muestran el envejecimiento progresivo en Europa. Esta realidad, generará variaciones demográficas de turistas internacionales en estos destinos y requiere una evaluación específica según las preferencias de las personas mayores. Con tal patrón, los turistas europeos que se retirarán en 20 años, son el grupo objetivo de esta invetigación para objetener dos finalidades: en primer lugar, evaluar los atributos territoriales urbanos que la persona considere al seleccionar la ubicación de su segunda residencia deseada, especialmente para su período de jubilación; y en segundo lugar, evaluar sus preferencias residenciales más deseadas. Con respecto al primer propósito, el análisis incluye la evaluación de los factores urbanos, que pueden alterar o influenciar la evaluación de los turistas hacia la decisión de comprar o alquilar una segunda residencia en territorios costeros. Estas variables se clasifican en tres categorías: entorno construido, entorno sociocultural y medio ambiente. Asimismo, es evaluado el rol fundamental de las características pertenecientes a ciudades mediterráneas como probables atracciones a la zona, en el momento de la toma de decisión. Por otra parte, la segunda finalidad, alude a las preferencias residenciales enfocadas a la conveniencia de hogares de cuidados asistidos como segunda residencia. El área estudiada, Costa Brava, un destino turístico ubicado en la parte noroeste de la Costa Mediterránea Española, es elegida gracias a la proporción significativa de segundas residencias en su mercado inmobiliario. La investigación, mediante enfoque cuantitativo, se lleva a cabo a través de un cuestionario conformado por: listado territorial, variables urbanas y residenciales en escala Likert, y 191 cuestionarios cumplimentados. Los resultados demostraron que, además de las atracciones naturales y culturales del territorio, existen ciertos atributos importantes al momento de escoger el área de la segunda residencia en zonas edificadas; estos factores, se refieren principalmente al concepto de accesibilidad; por ejemplo, calles y aceras bien conservadas, así como la proximidad a hospitales y comercios. También, el estudio se enfocó en personas interesadas en tener una segunda residencia en la zona. Los resultados relacionados a los aspectos urbanos del Mediterráneo, no mostraron interés significativo en estos aspectos dentro del grupo objetivo. En la tipología de la vivienda, se señaló un gran interés en las formas de casa unifamiliar, para la segunda residencia deseada, considerando que la elaboración de este modelo se contrapone a la forma compacta tradicional de las ciudades del Mediterráneo. Evaluando otras preferencias residenciales y servicios asistenciales deseados, se concluye con el notable interés en estos servicios y en otros métodos de mantenimiento, en lugar del automantenimiento de segundas residencias. Como producto, se plantea la posibilidad de elaborar un nuevo modelo de segunda residencia para jubilados, abordando otros estudios de la transformación de los alojamientos turísticos actuales. Para concluir, las consecuencias resultantes del análisis, subrayan la importancia de entornos agradables para personas mayores y los asuntos relativos a la protección del medio ambiente. Más aún, acentúan el importante atractivo cultural atribuido en esta investigación, así como las sugerencias de politica pública y planificación regional propuestas por los nativos. ; Postprint (published version)

Spanish Mediterranean coasts are known as famous tourism destinations and have been under the construction of tourist accommodations and second home developments for several decades. These areas have faced with unsustainability symptoms resulted from the seasonality nature of mass tourism and sprawl form of urban land use. In this situation, international retirement migration has appeared as a phenomenon impacting in these coastal areas while the recent demographic projections show the increase of ageing in Europe. This fact, will generate changes in demography of international tourists of these destinations and require a specific evaluation according to elderly preferences. In such a pattern, European visitors who are retired or getting retired within 20 years are the target group of this research to seek two aims: first, evaluating the geographic-urban attributes that this person does consider in selecting the location of their desired second home, particularly for retirement period; and the second aim is evaluating their desired residential preferences. Regarding the first aim, the analysis includes evaluating the physical and quantitative urban factors that could change or influence tourists¿ evaluation toward decision of buying or renting a second home in coastal areas. These variables are categorized in built environment, socio-cultural environment and natural environment categories. In addition, the role of Mediterranean cities¿ characteristics as a probable attraction of the area in such a decision is evaluated. The second aim, refers to the residential preferences by an approach on the desirability of assisted living facilities for the second home. Moreover, regarding the seasonal use of tourist accommodation in coastal areas, as a prospective adjective, it¿s intended to assess if it¿s possible to promote a model of second home for retirees in such tourist accommodation during the low season of tourism. As the study area, Costa Brava, a famous tourism destination in the northeastern part of the Spanish Mediterranean coast, is selected in which second home has a remarkable share in its real estate market. The research by a quantitative approach is conducted through a questionnaire including listed geographic, urban and residential variables in Likert scale and 191 fulfilled questionnaires gathered. Findings showed that in addition to the natural and cultural attractions of the area, there are some attributes in built environment category indicated as important in selecting the second home area; these factors, mainly refer to the accessibility concept; for instance, maintained streets and sidewalks and the proximity to shopping and hospital. Moreover, the study focussed on people interested in having a second home in the area, to assess the attractiveness of the area for this potential second homers. Findings regarding the Mediterranean urban aspects, showed no significant interest in these aspects among this interested people. In housing typology, a high interest was indicated in detached and semi-detached house forms for desired second home, whereas development of such housings is in contrast to the traditional compact form of Mediterranean cities. Evaluating other residential preferences and desired assisted services concluded to a remarkable interest in these services and in other maintenance methods rather than self-maintenance of second homes. Results propose the possibility to develop a new model of second homes for retirees addressing further studies on transformation of actual tourist accommodations. In conclusion implications resulted from the analysis, stress the importance of elder-friendly environments and the environmental protection issues. Moreover, the significant cultural attractive attributes in this research, such as the attitude of locals proposed suggestions in public policy and regional planning. ; Las Costas Mediterráneas Españolas son consideradas famosos destinos turísticos que han estado bajo la construcción de alojamientos turísticos y desarrollos de segunda residencia en épocas recientes. Estas regiones se han enfrentado a síntomas de insostenibilidad, como producto del turismo masivo con carácter estacional, y la expansión urbana. Ante esta situación, la migración internacional de jubilados ha figurado como un fenómeno impactando en estas zonas costeras mientras, las proyecciones demográficas actuales muestran el envejecimiento progresivo en Europa. Esta realidad, generará variaciones demográficas de turistas internacionales en estos destinos y requiere una evaluación específica según las preferencias de las personas mayores. Con tal patrón, los turistas europeos que se retirarán en 20 años, son el grupo objetivo de esta invetigación para objetener dos finalidades: en primer lugar, evaluar los atributos territoriales urbanos que la persona considere al seleccionar la ubicación de su segunda residencia deseada, especialmente para su período de jubilación; y en segundo lugar, evaluar sus preferencias residenciales más deseadas. Con respecto al primer propósito, el análisis incluye la evaluación de los factores urbanos, que pueden alterar o influenciar la evaluación de los turistas hacia la decisión de comprar o alquilar una segunda residencia en territorios costeros. Estas variables se clasifican en tres categorías: entorno construido, entorno sociocultural y medio ambiente. Asimismo, es evaluado el rol fundamental de las características pertenecientes a ciudades mediterráneas como probables atracciones a la zona, en el momento de la toma de decisión. Por otra parte, la segunda finalidad, alude a las preferencias residenciales enfocadas a la conveniencia de hogares de cuidados asistidos como segunda residencia. El área estudiada, Costa Brava, un destino turístico ubicado en la parte noroeste de la Costa Mediterránea Española, es elegida gracias a la proporción significativa de segundas residencias en su mercado inmobiliario. La investigación, mediante enfoque cuantitativo, se lleva a cabo a través de un cuestionario conformado por: listado territorial, variables urbanas y residenciales en escala Likert, y 191 cuestionarios cumplimentados. Los resultados demostraron que, además de las atracciones naturales y culturales del territorio, existen ciertos atributos importantes al momento de escoger el área de la segunda residencia en zonas edificadas; estos factores, se refieren principalmente al concepto de accesibilidad; por ejemplo, calles y aceras bien conservadas, así como la proximidad a hospitales y comercios. También, el estudio se enfocó en personas interesadas en tener una segunda residencia en la zona. Los resultados relacionados a los aspectos urbanos del Mediterráneo, no mostraron interés significativo en estos aspectos dentro del grupo objetivo. En la tipología de la vivienda, se señaló un gran interés en las formas de casa unifamiliar, para la segunda residencia deseada, considerando que la elaboración de este modelo se contrapone a la forma compacta tradicional de las ciudades del Mediterráneo. Evaluando otras preferencias residenciales y servicios asistenciales deseados, se concluye con el notable interés en estos servicios y en otros métodos de mantenimiento, en lugar del automantenimiento de segundas residencias. Como producto, se plantea la posibilidad de elaborar un nuevo modelo de segunda residencia para jubilados, abordando otros estudios de la transformación de los alojamientos turísticos actuales. Para concluir, las consecuencias resultantes del análisis, subrayan la importancia de entornos agradables para personas mayores y los asuntos relativos a la protección del medio ambiente. Más aún, acentúan el importante atractivo cultural atribuido en esta investigación, así como las sugerencias de politica pública y planificación regional propuestas por los nativos. ; Postprint (published version)

The thesis focuses on the inter-departmental coordination of adaptation and mitigation of demographic change in East Germany. All Eastern German States (Länder) have set up inter-departmental committees (IDCs) that are expected to deliver joint strategies to tackle demographic change. IDCs provide an organizational setting for potential positive coordination, i.e. a joint approach to problem solving that pools and utilizes the expertise of many departments in a constructive manner from the very beginning. Whether they actually achieve positive coordination is contested within the academic debate. This motivates the first research question of this thesis: Do IDCs achieve positive coordination? Interdepartmental committees and their role in horizontal coordination within the core executive triggered interest among scholars already more than fifty years ago. However, we don't know much about their actual importance for the inter-departmental preparation of cross-cutting policies. Until now, few studies can be found that analyzes inter-departmental committees in a comparative way trying to identify whether they achieve positive coordination and what factors shape the coordination process and output of IDCs. Each IDC has a chair organization that is responsible for managing the interactions within the IDCs. The chair organization is important, because it organizes and structures the overall process of coordination in the IDC. Consequently, the chair of an IDC serves as the main boundary-spanner and therefore has remarkable influence by arranging meetings and the work schedule or by distributing internal roles. Interestingly, in the German context we find two organizational approaches: while some states decided to put a line department (e.g. Department of Infrastructure) in charge of managing the IDC, others rely on the State Chancelleries, i.e. the center of government. This situation allows for comparative research design that can address the role of the State Chancellery in inter-departmental coordination of cross-cutting policies. This is relevant, because the role of the center is crucial when studying coordination within central government. The academic debate on the center of government in the German politico-administrative system is essentially divided into two camps. One camp claims that the center can improve horizontal coordination and steer cross-cutting policy-making more effectively, while the other camp points to limits to central coordination due to departmental autonomy. This debate motivates the second research question of this thesis: Does the State Chancellery as chair organization achieve positive coordination in IDCs? The center of government and its role in the German politic-administrative system has attracted academic attention already in the 1960s and 1970s. There is a research desiderate regarding the center's role during the inter-departmental coordination process. There are only few studies that explicitly analyze centers of government and their role in coordination of cross-cutting policies, although some single case studies have been published. This gap in the academic debate will be addressed by the answer to the second research question. The dependent variable of this study is the chair organization of IDCs. The value of this variable is dichotomous: either an IDC is chaired by a Line department or by a State Chancellery. We are interested whether this variable has an effect on two dependent variables. First, we will analyze the coordination process, i.e. interaction among bureaucrats within the IDC. Second, the focus of this thesis will be on the coordination result, i.e. the demography strategies that are produced by the respective IDCs. In terms of the methodological approach, this thesis applies a comparative case study design based on a most-similar-systems logic. The German Federalism is quite suitable for such designs. Since the institutional framework largely is the same across all states, individual variables and their effect can be isolated and plausibly analyzed. To further control for potential intervening variables, we will limit our case selection to states located in East Germany, because the demographic situation is most problematic in the Eastern part of Germany, i.e. there is a equal problem pressure. Consequently, we will analyze five cases: Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt (line department) and Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony (State Chancellery). There is no grand coordination theory that is ready to be applied to our case studies. Therefore, we need to tailor our own approach. Our assumption is that the individual chair organization has an effect on the coordination process and output of IDCs, although all cases are embedded in the same institutional setting, i.e. the German politico-administrative system. Therefore, we need an analytical approach than incorporates institutionalist and agency-based arguments. Therefore, this thesis will utilize Actor-Centered Institutionalism (ACI). Broadly speaking, ACI conceptualizes actors' behavior as influenced - but not fully determined - by institutions. Since ACI is rather abstract we need to adapt it for the purpose of this thesis. Line Departments and State Chancelleries will be modeled as distinct actors with different action orientations and capabilities to steer the coordination process. However, their action is embedded within the institutional context of governments, which we will conceptualize as being comprised of regulative (formal rules) and normative (social norms) elements. ; Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit interministerieller Koordination der Demografiepolitik in ostdeutschen Ländern. Alle ostdeutschen Länder haben interministerielle Arbeitsgruppen (IMAGs) eingerichtet, die von der jeweiligen Landesregierung beauftragt wurden, ressortübergreifende Strategien zur Bewältigung der Folgen des demografischen Wandels zu erarbeiten. IMAGs bieten potentiell einen organisatorischen Rahmen für das Gelingen positiver Koordination, also der ressortübergreifenden Bearbeitung interdependenter Problemstellungen. Ob sie jedoch tatsächlich positive Koordination herbeiführen, ist innerhalb der akademischen Debatte umstritten, was die Motivation für die erste Forschungsfrage darstellt: Führen IMAGs zu positiver Koordination? IMAGs haben bereits vor fünfzig Jahren akademische Aufmerksamkeit erregt. Dennoch ist über ihren Beitrag zur Vorbereitung ressortübergreifender Programme kaum etwas bekannt. Bislang haben nur wenige Arbeiten IMAGs in vergleichender Perspektive behandelt. Somit fehlt es an Wissen zu Determinanten des Koordinationsprozesses und –ergebnisses interministerieller Arbeitsgruppen. Jeweils einer Organisation obliegt die Federführung für die jeweilige IMAG. Die federführende Einheit kann erheblichen Einfluss ausüben, da sie den Koordinationsprozess strukturiert und organisiert. Interessanterweise haben die ostdeutschen Bundesländer zwei unterschiedliche organisatorische Modelle gewählt: Entweder obliegt die Federführung der entsprechenden IMAG einem Fachministerien oder der Staatskanzlei des entsprechenden Landes. Diese Situation erlaubt ein vergleichendes Untersuchungsdesign, das die Rolle von Staatskanzleien im Prozess ressortübergreifender Politikformulierung im politisch-administrativen System Deutschlands zu untersuchen erlaubt. Die akademische Debatte im Hinblick darauf lässt sich etwas zugespitzt in zwei Lager teilen: Während das erste Lager argumentiert, die Regierungszentrale könne horizontale Koordination verbessern und zur effektiveren Steuerung ressortübergreifenden Politikformulierung beitragen, rekurriert das zweite Lager auf die Dominanz des verfassungsrechtlichen Ressortprinzip und geht von einer klaren Begrenzung der Steuerungskapazität von Regierungszentralen aus. Dies motiviert die zweite Forschungsfrage der vorliegenden Arbeit: Erreicht Federführung durch Staatskanzleien positive Koordination in IMAGs? Obwohl die Regierungszentrale schon frühzeitig Gegenstand verwaltungs- und politikwissenschaftlicher Forschung war, finden sich kaum Arbeiten, die explizit die Rolle von Staatskanzlei im Prozess der Formulierung ressortübergreifender Programme thematisieren. Die unabhängige Variable dieser Untersuchung ist die federführende Organisation einer IMAG (Staatskanzlei oder Fachministerium). Die abhängigen Variablen sind einerseits der Koordinationsprozess innerhalb von IMAGs als auch das entsprechende Koordinationsergebnis in Form ressortübergreifender Strategien zur Bewältigung des demografischen Wandels. Das Untersuchungsdesign entspricht einem most-similar-systems Ansatz. So finden sich in allen untersuchten Fällen Koalitionsregierungen, ein ähnlicher Problemdruck in Hinblick auf demografische Entwicklungen sowie ein nahezu identischer institutionelle Rahmen für Koordination. Der Einfluss der unabhängigen auf die abhängigen Variablen kann damit plausiblen isoliert werden. Die Studie untersucht IMAGs in den Ländern Thüringen, Sachsen-Anhalt (Federführung bei einem Fachministerium), Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern und Sachsen (Federführung bei der Staatskanzlei). Die Arbeit nutzt den akteurszentrierten Institutionalismus als analytischen Rahmen. Dieser erlaubt Koordinationsprozesse sowohl in Hinblick auf ihre institutionelle Einbettung zu untersuchen, die Rolle intentional handelnder Akteure mit unterschiedlichen Handlungsorientierungen und -möglichkeiten aus dem Blick zu verlieren.

The book has described the dynamics of disease occurrence in populations and gives an overview of the major known health determinants of mortality decline, health risk factors and health services, and studies the health interventions options in two example diseases i.e. diabetes and stroke. We postulated that a lifetime multi-state modelling approach can be useful to describe disease processes and health care costs in populations and outlined the approach in the second chapter. After describing various case studies in the five application sections, a number of conclusions can be drawn. The multi-state models allow for analysing dynamic disease processes throughout a lifetime in relation to the actual stage of the health transition in a country. The dynamic components are threefold: 1) the substitution, clustering and synergism of health determinants and diseases, 2) the effectiveness and efficiency of health services, and 3) the effect of ageing of populations in quantitative and qualitative terms as both early and late survival improves. At all stages, there is a trade-off with other diseases when a first disease is treated. The model approach quantifies these effects and allows for an analysis in time. Chapter 4 shows that substitution and competition of multiple health risks, at all ages, may partly explain the lack of results of the introduction of health programmes as in international co-operation in health. The same chapter shows that multiple, also low cost, roads to population health exist by elimination of health risks and by improvement of disease survival. Computation of optimal pathways is possible. The chapters on stroke and diabetes show the relationship of health intervention mixes options, available resources, health benefits, and optimisation options. The stroke analysis shows that, in case of high available budgets, costly clinical interventions for all patients can be more cost-effective than low cost clinical interventions for small groups of high-risk patients. The diabetes chapter shows that, in case of low available budgets, low cost clinical interventions for small groups of high-risk patients can be more cost-effective than prevention. The general conclusion is that multi-state models allow for computation of multiple, optimum paths to health throughout a lifetime, depending on the societal resources available. Health policy relevance As multi-state models allow for quantification of the health and costs influences of each health determinant, including health interventions, they facilitate rational policy making. Broad policy questions in relation to the role of health determinants and health care provision can be specified, modelled and explored like e.g. the use of a zero health expenditure scenarios (chapter 4) and in the use of interventions proposed in guidelines (chapter 5-8). For other broad or detailed policy questions the model approach can be expanded or simplified according depending on the nature of the question. Ethical and political choices will have to remain with the domain of politicians and the public. A lot of the evidence-based approaches, prominent on the national and international agendas for health policy and health research, frequently and increasingly make use of health modelling approaches. It is unclear what the implications of this policy approach are for the production and distribution of health in populations, given the notion of multiple determinants in health. It is equally unclear what kind of barriers there are to the adoption of evidence-based approaches in health care practice. Chapter 9 outlines the ways in which health policy is informed by the results from health research and health modelling. It summarises approaches in health at three impact levels: inter-sectoral assessment, national health care policy, and evidence-based medicine in everyday practice. Consensus is growing on the role of broad and specific health determinants, including health care, as well as on priority setting based on the burden of diseases. In spite of methodological constraints, there is a demand for inter-sectoral assessments, especially in health sector reform. Initiators of policy changes in other sectors may be held responsible for providing the evidence related to health. There are limited possibilities for priority setting at the national health care policy level. Hence, there is a decentralisation of responsibilities for resource use towards providers and health insurance companies. They are encouraged to assume agency roles for both patients and society and ask to promote and deliver effective and efficient health care. Governments need to design national frameworks to strengthen their organisation to enhance their roles. The formulation of national health guidelines supported by evidence on effectiveness and efficiency will be one essential element in this process. With the increasing number of advocates for the enhancement of population health in the policy arenas, evidence-based approaches provide the insights, information, and tools to help with priority setting. RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS Model validation The book observes the start of multi-state modelling of population health in epidemiology, demography, public health, and health economics research. Up to now there are relatively few related research efforts. The designs, implementation, and application of generic multi-state approaches have been initiated. Important is the validity of the results. More model calibration and validation can and should take place. Validation can be structural validation (chapter 3) or external validation, using external time series (chapters 4 and 5). The developed models have relatively few free variables that can be used for calibration and reproduction of population-based time series of morbidity and mortality. An important free variable to be use for calibration is the non-attributable incidence of diseases. In combination with the risk-attributable fraction, it results in the observed disease incidence. The population attributive risk approach should be developed further to account for regression dilution bias and the occurrence of multiple diseases and multiple determinants. Another important calibration parameter is the effectiveness of prevention and curative services in daily settings. Related parameters, such as coverage, are usually based on cross-sectional studies. Incidentally, longitudinal follow-up may be able to give data on day-to-day effectiveness. Also comparison with special population groups that have remained without an intervention may give supportive evidence like studies on religious, cultural groups, on the uninsured, or on 'natural' experiments like war or strikes. A third group of calibration parameters is disease-specific mortality and morbidity. This group can be used for the large disease categories that we used for the applications (chapter 3-5). This would be for Mexico for the period 1950-1990 and for India for the period 1980-1990 based on the Federal Sample Registration Survey. Last, disease-specific calibration is possible for The Netherlands 1900-1990 and also, but with more uncertainties, from 1860 onwards. Expert validation of model structure and assumptions could be more explored and transparency increased. Examples are review procedures and panel discussions with researchers, policy makers and the public or its representatives. This would also give more room to account for the more subjective or political choices to be a priori made. Future research The main characteristic of the multi-state approach is a comprehensive consideration of disease occurrence, disability and the cost of disease through a lifetime at the population

Appendix available at: https://sites.google.com/site/victorgayeco/research ; In this dissertation, I provide a comprehensive analysis of the short and long-run impact of World War I military fatalities on female labor force participation in France. In chapter 1, I describe the measure of military death rates used throughout the dissertation and explore its sources of systematic variation. In chapter 2, I show that the scarcity of men resulting from the war generated an upward shift in female labor force participation that persisted throughout the interwar period. Increased female labor supply accounts for this result: deteriorated marriage market conditions for single women and negative income shocks to war widows induced many of these women to enter the labor force after the war. In contrast, firms did not increase their demand for female labor to compensate for the scarcity of men. I further show in chapter 3 that this initial shock to female labor transmitted across generations up until today. Three primary mechanisms account for this historical persistence: vertical intergenerational transmission (from mothers and fathers to daughters), transmission through marriage (from husbands to wives, and from mothers in-law to daughters in-law), and oblique intergenerational transmission (from migrants to non-migrants). Consistent with theories ofintergenerational transmission, I also provide evidence that World War I military fatalities permanently altered preferences and beliefs toward female labor. ; Cette thèse propose une analyse des conséquences à court et à long terme des morts militaires de la Première Guerre Mondiale sur le travail des femmes en France. Le premier chapitre décrit la mesure du taux de mortalité militaire utilisée tout au long de la thèse et explore ses sources de variation systématique. Le second chapitre montre que la pénurie d'hommes résultant de la guerre a généré une augmentation du travail des femmes qui a persisté tout au long de l'entre-deux-guerres. Une augmentation de l'offre de ...

This paper tests for heterogeneous effects of cognitive skills on economic growth across countries. Using a new extended dataset on cognitive skills and controlling for potential endogeneity, we find that the magnitude of the effect is about 60 per cent higher for low-income countries compared to high-income countries, and it more than doubles when low TFP countries are compared to high TFP countries. There are also marked differences across geographic regions. Using data on the share of the population with advanced and minimum skill levels, our results also indicate that high-income countries should focus on increasing the number of high skilled human capital, while countries from Sub-Saharan Africa would benefit more by investing in the development of basic skills. ; Les Documents de Travail de l'IREDU, n°2016-1

In diesem Beitrag präsentieren wir Schätzungen für die tempobereinigte zusammengefasste Geburtenziffer in West- und Ostdeutschland von 1955 bis 2008. Um trotz der fehlenden Daten aus der amtlichen Statistik sowohl für Westdeutschland als auch für die neuen Bundesländer ab 1990 die für die Tempobereinigung der zusammengefassten Geburtenziffer (TFR) erforderliche paritätsspezifische Aufteilung der Geburtenzahlen vorzunehmen, haben wir auf die uns bekannten alternativen Quellen zurückgegriffen, welche die Zuordnung der Geburten zu den einzelnen Ordnungszahlen ermöglichen. Das kombinierte Bild aus konventioneller TFR und tempobereinigter TFR* erbringt für die in diesem Beitrag nur oberflächlich analysierten Trends der Periodenfertilität in West- und Ostdeutschland interessante Erkenntnisse, vor allem bezüglich der West-Ost-Differenzen und des enormen Ausmaßes von Tempoeffekten in Ostdeutschland während der 1990er Jahre. Im Vergleich zu entsprechenden Daten für andere Staaten zeigt die geschätzte tempobereinigte TFR* einen plausiblen Verlauf. Allerdings dürfen die Schätzungen der tempobereinigten Geburtenziffern nicht mit Ergebnissen der amtlichen Statistik verwechselt oder als ihnen gleichwertig angesehen werden.

In this article we present estimates of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate in Western and Eastern Germany from 1955 to 2008. Tempo adjustment of the total fertility rate (TFR) requires data on the annual number of births by parity and age of the mother. Since official statistics do not provide such data for West Germany as well as Eastern Germany from 1990 on we used alternative data sources which include these specific characteristics. The combined picture of conventional TFR and tempo-adjusted TFR* provides interesting information about the trends in period fertility in Western and Eastern Germany, above all with regard to the differences between the two regions and the enormous extent of tempo effects in Eastern Germany during the 1990s. Compared to corresponding data for populations from other countries, our estimates of the tempo-adjusted TFR* for Eastern and Western Germany show plausible trends. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the estimates of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate presented in this paper should not be seen as being on the level of or equivalent to official statistics since they are based on different kinds of data with different degrees of quality.

Trois figures et une carte illustrent cet article. http://www.population-demographie.org/revue.htm ; International audience ; La Roumanie, l'un des deux pays du sixième élargissement de l'Union européenne, connaît une évolution géodémographique résultant notamment de l'héritage du régime communiste. Cet article examine la répartition spatiale de la population, puis ses évolutions.

Trois figures et une carte illustrent cet article. http://www.population-demographie.org/revue.htm ; International audience ; La Roumanie, l'un des deux pays du sixième élargissement de l'Union européenne, connaît une évolution géodémographique résultant notamment de l'héritage du régime communiste. Cet article examine la répartition spatiale de la population, puis ses évolutions.

The impact of education on growth or individual earnings has been vastly studied in economics. However, much remains to know about this association before the mid-20th century. In this article, I investigate the effect of primary schooling on the economic devel- opment of French municipalities during the 19th century and up to World War I. Before the Guizot Law of 1833, no national legislation on primary schooling existed in France. Therefore, I evaluate if the municipalities with higher educational achievements before this law grew more than their counterparts during the following years. To do so, I exploit first the fact that the Guizot Law forced municipalities over 500 inhabitants to open and fund a primary school for boys. I implement a regression discontinuity around this cut-off on municipalities with no primary school in 1833. Second, I instrument educational achieve- ment, namely enrolment rates and schooling years, by the proximity of municipalities to printing presses established before 1500. Each method returns a positive impact of edu- cation on development. Education quality also mattered in this perspective. A matching estimation on municipalities with a school in 1833 indicates a positive impact of better teaching conditions provided by public grants on the subsequent growth of municipalities. Primary schooling is therefore an important factor which favoured the development of French municipalities during the century of industrialisation and modernisation.

International audience ; Préface à l'ouvrage de François Facchini sur les dépenses publiques en France dans une perspective historique et comparative

International audience ; Préface à l'ouvrage de François Facchini sur les dépenses publiques en France dans une perspective historique et comparative

The vast majority of research focuses on the individual factors leading to coronavirus mortality. Numerous studies have shown that the age of the population is the dominant factor explaining mortality. Other more recent work has added gender, comorbidity, ethnicity and obesity. Based on the most populous and dense region of France-Île-de-France, grouping 8 heterogeneous departments in terms of wealth-our study seeks to identify whether economic and financial or structural factors related to housing can explain a faster circulation of the virus during social dis-tancing like lockdown, and therefore lead to excess mortality. We show that agglomerations with higher precariousness indicators (unemployment benefit income, poverty rate, social minima in income, little or no graduate in the workforce) and less suitable housing (potentially unworthy housing, household size, overcrowded housing) are more at risk, including if their population is younger. Our study therefore provides political leaders with a number of indications allowing them to take effective measures in the event of a second wave of COVID-19 or forthcoming coronavirus pandemics.

The vast majority of research focuses on the individual factors leading to coronavirus mortality. Numerous studies have shown that the age of the population is the dominant factor explaining mortality. Other more recent work has added gender, comorbidity, ethnicity and obesity. Based on the most populous and dense region of France-Île-de-France, grouping 8 heterogeneous departments in terms of wealth-our study seeks to identify whether economic and financial or structural factors related to housing can explain a faster circulation of the virus during social dis-tancing like lockdown, and therefore lead to excess mortality. We show that agglomerations with higher precariousness indicators (unemployment benefit income, poverty rate, social minima in income, little or no graduate in the workforce) and less suitable housing (potentially unworthy housing, household size, overcrowded housing) are more at risk, including if their population is younger. Our study therefore provides political leaders with a number of indications allowing them to take effective measures in the event of a second wave of COVID-19 or forthcoming coronavirus pandemics.