Digital Diplomacy and African Countries: Opportunities, Challenges, and Future Prospects
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Blog: Responsible Statecraft
As Russia's war in Ukraine approaches its two-year anniversary, President Vladimir Putin has reportedly had his suggestions of ceasefire rejected by Washington. On Tuesday, Reuters reported that Russia had approached the United States through intermediaries in late 2023 and early 2024 to propose freezing the conflict along the current lines. Washington reportedly turned down the suggestion, saying that they were not willing to engage in talks if Ukraine was not a participant."Putin was proposing to freeze the conflict at the current lines and was unwilling to cede any of the Ukrainian territory controlled by Russia, but the signal offered what some in the Kremlin saw as the best path towards a peace of some kind," according to Reuters, which cites three anonymous Russian sources. The plan, one of the sources told Reuters, was for national security adviser Jake Sullivan to meet with the Russian counterpart to hash out the details. But after meeting with other senior officials including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and CIA Director Bill Burns, "Sullivan told Ushakov that Washington was willing to talk about other aspects of the relationship but would not speak about a ceasefire without Ukraine, said one of the Russian sources," according to Reuters. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said that there is no point in negotiating with Putin and has maintained that he will never accept Russia controlling any part of Ukraine."Everything fell apart with the Americans," one of the sources told Reuters, saying that Washington did not want to pressure Kyiv into reaching an agreement. The sources also added that given the U.S. reaction to a potential ceasefire, Moscow saw little reason to reach out again. Both Washington and Moscow have denied the reporting. The Kremlin "never made any kind of proposal to us nor have we seen any signs that Putin is sincerely interested in ending the war," an unnamed U.S. official told Politico's NatSec daily on Tuesday. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that the report that Russia had made such an offer was "not true." Despite Washington's insistence, this is the latest piece of evidence that Putin may have pursued a ceasefire in recent months. The New York Times reported late in 2023 that the Russian president had quietly been sending signals to the West that he was prepared to freeze the conflict. "The signals come through multiple channels, including via foreign governments with ties to both the United States and Russia," the Times reported. "Unofficial Russian emissaries have spoken to interlocutors about the contours of a potential deal that Mr. Putin would accept, American officials and others said." The report also revealed that Putin had been interested in a potential ceasefire as far back as the fall of 2022, following Ukraine's successful counteroffensive. As journalist Leonid Ragozin explained in al-Jazeera earlier this week, this may be an effort to pressure the West to negotiate on Putin's terms."What Putin is trying to achieve is making the West face its moral dilemma which boils down to the cost and benefit of resisting his aggression," Ragozin writes. "The continued support for Ukraine's military effort will cost thousands of lives and devastate Ukraine even further, while success is hardly guaranteed." In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine:— The prospects for the next tranche of U.S. aid for Ukraine saw the first glimmer of optimism in months, but the chances that it becomes law remain murky. After a tumultuous negotiation, the Senate passed the $95 billion national security supplemental, which includes approximately $60 billion for Kyiv. The legislation next goes to the House of Representatives, which has been more skeptical of sending aid, and where leadership so far appears unwilling to bring the bill to the floor. Supporters believe that if the House voted on the package, it would pass overwhelmingly, and some have floated pursuing legislative maneuvers that would allow them to supersede leadership and bring the legislation to a vote. — Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he spoke with Paul Whelan, the U.S. Marine currently detained in Russia, on Monday, according to CNN. Blinken provided few details on his conversation with Whelan, who has been detained since December 2018. When asked about a possible prisoner exchange involving Whelan or detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, the Kremlin said that such matters could only be resolved, "in silence." — French President Emmanuel Macron announced in a statement that he will sign a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine on Friday. Macron did not specify what exactly the agreement will look like, but he said earlier this year that he was expecting to model an agreement after the 10-year deal that the United Kingdom and Ukraine signed earlier this year. — The Netherlands will join a coalition of countries that is providing Ukraine with advanced drones, according to Reuters. "Ukraine intends to manufacture thousands of long-range drones capable of deep strikes into Russia in 2024 and already has up to 10 companies working on production, Ukraine's digital minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, said in a Reuters interview on Monday."U.S. State Department news:In a Wednesday press briefing, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller reiterated the importance of Congress passing the supplemental, stressing that it was in the national security interest of Ukraine, Europe, and the United States."A lot of that money is spent here, helps develop the manufacturing base here in the United States. And so we will continue to push for the passage of the supplemental bill, and ultimately we think – as the President said, the world is watching," Miller said. "And certainly I'm sure that when we are in Munich we will hear directly from foreign leaders that they are watching very much what Congress does. We know the Ukrainian people are watching. And as the President said, history is watching as well."
Blog: Responsible Statecraft
U.S. President Joe Biden, in his rousing State of the Union speech, warned that Vladimir Putin's Russia is on the march, "invading Europe and sowing chaos throughout the world." There's no doubt that Russia is a rogue, nuclear-armed state which crushes dissent at home, exports war abroad, and endangers what the United States and its allies call the "rules-based international order."But many people around the world — especially civil society activists from the Global South — are not just concerned about Putin's threats to the rules-based order. We also worry about Biden's commitment to it. As Israel's death toll tops 30,000 in Gaza with Washington's material support and diplomatic cover, many of us shake our heads at Biden's moral dualism on international norms.Indeed, if President Biden truly wants to save the rules-based order, he should start by looking at the United States' own behavior. Then, he should urgently push for United Nations reform that checks both Putin's influence, and America's own. Biden's administration should also back systemic changes that put the world's people, not the world's powers, at the center of global decision-making.Our research — based on over 250 interviews and articles we published over the last year on civil society activism — shows that the Biden administration's hypocrisy on Gaza is seriously undermining the rules-based international order. Crucial global governance systems like the UN Security Council, already weakened by Russia, are now at their breaking points. The unrelenting carnage in Gaza makes clear that the UN cannot stop wars as long as the belligerents have leverage in New York.It's easy for us to call out Putin. His atrocities in Syria and Ukraine confirm — in the worst way possible — that he is willing to go to any length to preserve his power.That's why many activists — including from Ukrainian and Russian civil society, who suffered the brunt of the invasion — applaud American support for Kyiv. But Gaza's wreckage has all but buried the goodwill the U.S. gained in support of Ukraine.Israel, like Russia in Ukraine, has disregarded almost every rule of international humanitarian law in its response to the October 7 Hamas massacre. Yet Biden has put no restrictions on American weapons flows to Israel, even as they are used to bomb and starve innocent people.At the Security Council, where the U.S. has often called out Russia's self-serving obstruction on Ukraine, the Biden administration has used its veto power just as cynically to cover for Israel's actions in Gaza — which the International Court of Justice says is plausibly genocide — and to block a ceasefire.With such hypocrisy at the helm, it's no wonder the UN system's response has pivoted to trying to supply never-enough humanitarian relief, rather than proactive diplomacy to stop the fighting and hold perpetrators accountable.The U.S. isn't the only country exercising double-standards in international affairs.When The Gambia brought genocide charges against Myanmar before the International Court of Justice, Britain stood with the Rohingya and argued that blocking aid to civilians was a war crime. But when South Africa used the same argument at the ICJ against Israel, a UK spokesperson derided the suit as "wrong and provocative."Sadly, South Africa is not immune to hypocrisy, championing the Palestinians while withholding criticism of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's persecution of the Uyghur people.Indeed, double-standards are hardly the West's purview. The expanded BRICS coalition claims to be an alternative to Western hegemony, but its members include the most repressive countries on Earth, some of whom have exported war and suffering to Sudan, Yemen, and elsewhere.Hypocrisy reigns in "peaceful" forums, too. The UAE used the COP28 climate summit to ink oil deals. And from the UN General Assembly to the G20, world leaders in 2023 spoke the language of democracy and rights on the one hand, while repressing citizen activism or sidelining civil society on the other.The results of these double-standards are all around us: a world beset by war, economic inequality, and rising temperatures.No country can fix these problems alone — all must work together. Despite his record on Gaza, Biden in particular has an opportunity to pull the rules-based international order from the brink.First, he should change tack on Gaza to prove he believes human rights apply equally regardless of who is the perpetrator and who is the victim.Second, his administration should champion UN Security Council reform to either abolish the much-abused veto or allow a UN General Assembly vote to override it. The perfect time to achieve such a change is September's Summit of the Future in New York.Biden's administration can also use the Summit of the Future to challenge the UN's state-centric approach to diplomacy. Currently, the UN, despite its public commitment to human rights, favors governments even if they are unelected or unaccountable to their own people.To boost popular participation and oversight instead, the U.S. should push for the UN to adopt the five recommendations of the UNmute Civil Society initiative at the Summit of the Future. These modest reforms include appointing a UN civil society envoy, mandating a civil society day at the UN, and providing wider public access to the UN through digital technologies.More boldly, in the spirit of the UN Charter which begins with the words, 'We the Peoples', Biden's team should back a world citizens' initiative, modeled on European Union processes, to allow people to petition to put issues directly before the General Assembly. Even better: a UN parliamentary assembly of elected representatives alongside the General Assembly to further balance state power with people power.All these reforms would curb powerful states' ability to act with impunity — including the US, Russia, China and their respective allies. But trading double standards for diplomacy is a worthy price if it means reducing the risk of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide across the board.Above all, U.S. leadership on global governance reform would show that Washington doesn't just talk about the rules, it plays by them, too. Putin would hate nothing more.