The department of Meta has natural wealth that aroused the interest of national and transnational capital to exploit these strategic resources, such as oil. After 2008, this department was reported as the first producer of crude oil at the national level. However, there were a series of social mobilizations denouncing: precarious work, environmental impacts and human rights violations. Therefore, analyzing the contribution made by the oil sector to the human development allows deepening the discussion of whether extractive economies are a source of welfare generation. This was done through an econometric modeling of multiple regression, where the variable Human Development Index -HDI- was used as a proxy for human development, based on the Gross Domestic Product of the agricultural, oil, industrial, construction and commerce sectors, all at 2005 prices. The agricultural, industrial and commercial sectors were found to explain the improvement of the HDI in the department, while the contributions of the oil and construction sector were irrelevant. As a general conclusion of the work, the oil sector does not explain human development, so the territorial entities, by the hand of the National Government, must strengthen the economic sectors that are doing so, turning this territory into an agricultural pantry and agroindustrial. ; El departamento del Meta cuenta con riqueza natural que despierta el interés del capital nacional y transnacional para explotar un recurso estratégico como el petróleo. Después de 2008 este departamento se reportó como el primer productor de crudo a nivel nacional. Sin embargo, surgieron una serie de movilizaciones sociales denunciando: precarización laboral, impactos al medio ambiente y violaciones a los derechos humanos. Por lo tanto, analizar el aporte que ha realizado el sector petrolero al desarrollo humano, permite profundizar la discusión de si las economías extractivas son una fuente generadora de bienestar. Lo anterior se realizó a través de una modelación econométrica de regresión múltiple, donde se utilizó la variable Índice de Desarrollo Humano -IDH- como próxy del desarrollo humano, en función del Producto Interno Bruto de los sectores agropecuario, petrolero, industrial, construcción y comercio, todos a precios 2005. Se encontró que los sectores agropecuario, industrial y comercio son los que explican el mejoramiento del IDH en el departamento, mientras que resultaron irrelevantes los aportes del sector petrolero y de construcción. Como conclusión general del trabajo se tiene que el sector petrolero no explica el desarrollo humano, por lo cual los entes territoriales, de la mano del Gobierno Nacional, deben potenciar los sectores económicos que sí lo están haciendo, convirtiendo este territorio en una despensa agrícola y agroindustrial.
Este trabajo se desarrolló con el objetivo de identificar los factores que influyen en la competitividad del café en el mercado internacional. Se utilizó de la teoría de la Ventaja Comparativa, señalada en la literatura como la más adecuada cuando se trata de análisis de la competitividad entre países. Se plantearon cuatro hipótesis sobre cómo los factores «Tierras agrícolas», «Población Rural», «Apertura comercial» y «Costo» influyen en la competitividad del café. Para ello se realizaron pruebas estadísticas de Efecto Fijo y Efecto Aleatorio a partir de datos de panel, lo que permitió inferir que tanto el incremento de la apertura comercial del país como de sus tierras agrícolas conducen a un aumento de la competitividad del café. Por otro lado, el aumento en la población rural y de los costos de exportación genera una reducción de esta competitividad. Estos resultados apuntan a la necesidad de coordinación de la agroindustria del café para cambiar su estructura y dinámica internamente en los países. Los actores de la industria agropecuaria, trabajando juntos, mejoran la competitividad de los productos a nivel internacional mediante la creación de mecanismos de fortalecimiento de productos tales como certificación, políticas públicas e incluso desarrollo de marketing de productos en el mercado externo. Estas acciones interfieren en el posicionamiento del país como un productor fuerte, generando reconocimiento por parte de los importadores y, en consecuencia, una mejor competitividad de los productos. Este artículo prueba la consagrada función de producción, trayendo nuevas variables al modelo, avanzando la teoría en este sentido. Además, el trabajo aporta una interdisciplinaridad, abordando la teoría económica, el comercio internacional y el marketing para explicar la competitividad. A los fines gerenciales, genera información sobre los factores que deben ser verificados y trabajados para mejorar la competitividad del café a nivel de país. ; This work was developed in order identify the factors that influence the competitiveness of coffee in the international market. As a theory, Comparative Advantage was used, pointed out in the literature as more appropriate when it comes to the analysis of competitiveness between countries. Four hypotheses were raised about how the factors «Agricultural land», «Rural population», «Opening» and «Cost» influence the competitiveness of coffee. In order do so, statistical tests were performed the Fixed Effect and Random Effect for panel data, which allowed to infer that the increase in the commercial opening of the country, as well as its agricultural land, leads to an increase in coffee competitiveness. On the other hand, the increase in the rural population and in the cost of export generate a reduction in this competitiveness. These results point to a need for coordination of the coffee agribusiness chain in order change its structure and dynamics internally in countries. Actors in the agribusiness chain, working together, improve product competitiveness at the international level by creating product-strengthening mechanisms such as certification, public policy, and even product marketing development in the external market. These actions interfere in the positioning of the country as a strong producer, generating recognition by importers, and consequently, better product competitiveness. This article tests the established production function, bringing new variables to the model, advancing the theory in this sense. In addition, the work brings an interdisciplinarity, approaching economic theory, international trade and marketing in order to explain competitiveness. For managerial purposes, it provides insight into the factors that need to be verified and addressed in order improve the competitiveness of coffee at the country level. ; Ce travail a été développé dans le but d'identifier les facteurs qui influencent la compétitivité du café sur le marché international. La théorie de l'avantage comparatif a été utilisée, puisqu'elle a été soulignée dans la littérature, comme la plus appropriée en ce qui concerne l'analyse de la compétitivité entre les différents pays. Quatre hypothèses ont été soulevées sur la manière dont les facteurs : Terres agricoles, Population rurale, Ouverture commerciale et Coût, influencent la compétitivité du café. Pour ce faire, des tests statistiques ont été effectués sur l'Effet Fixe et l'Effet aléatoire pour les données de panel, ce qui nous a permis de déduire que le renforcement de la libéralisation du commerce du pays ainsi que de ses terres agricoles, conduit à une compétitivité accrue du café. D'un autre côté, l'augmentation de la population rurale et le coût des exportations génèrent une réduction de cette compétitivité. Ces résultats indiquent un besoin de coordination de la chaîne agro-alimentaire du café, afin de changer sa structure et sa dynamique interne dans les pays. Les acteurs de la chaîne agroalimentaire, travaillant ensemble, améliorent la compétitivité des produits au niveau international en créant des mécanismes de renforcement des produits tels que la certification, la politique publique et même le développement du marketing produit sur le marché externe. Ces actions interfèrent dans le positionnement du pays en tant que producteur fort, générant une reconnaissance par les importateurs, et par conséquent, une meilleure compétitivité des produits. Cet article teste la fonction de production établie, apportant de nouvelles variables au modèle, faisant avancer la théorie dans ce sens. En outre, le travail apporte une interdisciplinarité, abordant la théorie économique, le commerce international et le marketing pour expliquer la compétitivité. À des fins de gestion, il donne un aperçu des facteurs qui doivent être vérifiés et traités afin d'améliorer la compétitivité du café au niveau des pays. ; Este trabalho foi desenvolvido com o intuito de identificar os fatores que influenciam a competitividade do café no mercado internacional. Como teoria, foi utilizada a vantagem comparativa, apontada pela literatura como mais apropriada quando se trata de análise da competitividade entre países. Foram levantadas quatro hipóteses acerca de como os fatores Terras agrícolas, População rural, Abertura comercial e Custo influenciam a competitividade do café. Para tanto, foram feitos testes estatísticos Efeito Fixo e Efeito Aleatório para dados em painel, que permitiram inferir que o aumento da abertura comercial do pais, bem como de suas terras agrícolas, geram um aumento na competitividade do café. Por outro lado, o aumento na população rural e no custo de exportação geram uma redução nesta competitividade. Estes resultados apontam para uma necessidade de coordenação da cadeia do agronegócio do café, a fim de alterar sua estrutura e dinâmica a nível interno nos países. Os atores da cadeia do agronegócio, trabalhando em conjunto, melhoram a competitividade do produto a nível internacional, ao criarem mecanismos de fortalecimento do produto, tais como certificação, políticas públicas, e mesmo o desenvolvimento do marketing para o produto no mercado externo. Estas ações interferem no posicionamento do país como forte produtor, gerando um reconhecimento por parte dos importadores, e consequentemente, melhor competitividade do produto. Este artigo testa a consagrada função de produção, trazendo novas variáveis ao modelo, avançando a teoria neste sentido. Além disso, o trabalho traz uma interdisciplinaridade, aproximando a teoria econômica, comércio internacional e marketing para explicar a competitividade. Para fins gerenciais, gera insights acerca dos fatores que devem ser verificados e trabalhados no sentido de melhorar a competitividade do café a nível de país. ; 43-58 ; Semestral
The aim of this paper is to analyze the phenomenon of generating employment through macroeconomic variables (private consumption, government spending, investment and exports) in the employment sector of the economy of Honduras, during the period 2001-2011. Where once characterized the labor sector this article will focus on to dramatize the effect they would have on employment levels of major economic policy measures using theories of modern economics, specifically classic Keynesian models and models that are used for its value and empirical approach to the behavior of the economy of Honduras.The analysis of this information was made through the relationship of macroeconomic variables of aggregate investment, demand and employment generation in the formal sector of the Honduran economy, where we intend to link the labor market using the number and different breakdowns of the total of employed persons, relating to public and private consumption to labor economic problems visible and invisible underemployment, open unemployment. The correlation of variables is a process focused on to compare the effects of major public policy measures in the framework of policy approaches of the leading candidates for office in the election campaigns. The focus of this analysis will focus on possible scenarios to project and effects on employment levels.The results of this research show significant phenomena especially the marginal propensity to consume of Hondurans presenting a high level of resources for consumption and low savings, implying that consumption is the most powerful engine of growth GDP and use of workforce coming from the sectors producing goods and services for final consumption being these agriculture and trade. The recommendations are intended has shown these findings and public policy challenges in the current political context of 2012 and 2013.The function of this research is to provide an early approximation of a technical and broad debate on the effectiveness of public policies on employment, as a tool for decision -making to guide both the private sector as the primary entity in the creation of jobs and the public sector creates opportunities and supportive climates for being competitive and decent jobs for the economically active population.Revista Ciencia y Tecnología, N° 15, December 2014: 111-128 ; El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el fenómeno de la generación de empleo a través de las variables macroeconómicas (consumo privado, gasto público, inversión y exportaciones) en el sector laboral de la economía de Honduras, durante el periodo 2001-2011. Una vez caracterizado el sector laboral, el análisis se centrará en poder escenificar el efecto que tendrían en los niveles de empleo las principales medidas económicas de política pública, utilizando teorías de la economía moderna, específicamente modelos keynesianos y clásicos que se usan por su relación y acercamiento al comportamiento empírico de la economía de Honduras.METODOLOGÍA El análisis de esta información se efectuó a través de la relación de las variables macroeconómicas de demanda agregada e inversión que generan empleo en el sector formal de la economía hondureña, en donde se pretende relacionar el mercado laboral utilizando el número y las distintas desagregaciones del total de personas ocupadas, relacionándolo con el consumo público y privado con los problemas económicos laborales del subempleo visible e invisible, el desempleo abierto. El proceso de correlación de las variables está centrado en poder comparar los efectos de las principales medidas de las políticas públicas en el marco de los planteamientos políticos de los principales candidatos a cargos públicos en las campañas electorales. El énfasis de este análisis estará centrado en poder proyectar posibles escenarios y efectos en los niveles de empleo.Los resultados obtenidos de la presente investigación arrojan importantes fenómenos, en especial la propensión marginal a consumir de los hondureños, presentando un nivel alto de recurso destinado al consumo y el bajo nivel de ahorro, denotando que el consumo es el motor de mayor potencia en el crecimiento del PIB y la utilización de fuerza laboral que provienen de los sectores productores de bienes y servicios de consumo final, siendo estos el sector agropecuario y el comercio. Las recomendaciones están orientadas a estos hallazgos y muestran los retos de las políticas públicas en el marco político actual del año 2012 y 2013. La función de esta investigación es poder proveer el comienzo de una aproximación para un debate técnico y amplio sobre la efectividad de las políticas públicas en materia de empleo, como una herramienta para la toma de decisiones que orienten tanto al sector privado como ente primario en la creación de puestos de trabajo, como para el sector público como ente creador de oportunidades y climas propicios para un empleo competitivo y digno para la población económicamente activa.Revista Ciencia y Tecnología, N° 15, diciembre 2014: 111-128
The aim of this article focuses on analyzing the impact of trade liberalization, human capital, private credit, and variables related to work and specialization on income inequality in Peru during the period from 1997 to 2019. A multiple linear regression model based on the multiple least squares (OLS) methodology is applied, using time series data that mathematizes the relationship between these variables and income inequality, considering the specialization of the labor supply. The relation between the independent variables, human capital and trade openness, and the dependent variable, the Gini, was verified by measuring inequality in the final model. It is important to mention that the effects of historical events that affected the market in 2007, 2011 and 2019 have been considered. The debate about the true impact of economic openness on income inequality has been present throughout history. Therefore, the relevance of this work lies in finding practical explanations in a scenario of deep political and economic instability. We seek to find one of the causes of the income inequality that has been present in Peru for decades. Since a significant reduction has not been seen, it is necessary to demonstrate what type of effect globalization has –during the last two decades– in the fight against income inequality in Peruvian society. The results obtained show that, in this case, trade liberalization does have a positive impact on reducing income inequality. Likewise, inconclusive results are found regarding the nature of the specialization and training of human capital in an environment of economic openness. In these, contradictory behaviors are observed with economic theory and empirical studies. ; El objetivo de este artículo se centra en analizar el impacto de la apertura comercial, el capital humano, el crédito privado y variables relacionados al trabajo y la especialización en la desigualdad de ingresos en el Perú durante el período de 1997 a 2019. Se emplea un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple basado en la ...
El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en brindar un análisis econométrico del comportamiento del desempleo en el Ecuador entre el segundo trimestre del 2007 al cuarto trimestre del 2017. El trabajo emplea la Ley de Okun como enfoque teórico para explicar el comportamiento de la tasa de desempleo. La metodología consistió en una estrategia empírica soportada en los modelos de rezagos distribuidos autorregresivos con cointegración según el enfoque de Pesaran y Shin. Los resultados encontrados sugieren que en promedio por cada 1% de crecimiento del producto hay una disminución contemporánea de la tasa de desempleo de 0,30 puntos porcentuales, pero también hay efectos que perduran en los siguientes trimestres. Se concluye que la reducción de la tasa de desempleo en el Ecuador implica un esfuerzo político y de diseño de instituciones en las relaciones laborales entre trabajadores y empresarios para dinamizar el mercado laboral. ; The objective of this paper is to provide an econometric analysis of the behavior of the unemployment rate of Ecuador in the period 2007: 2-2017: 4 with a quarterly frequency. The work uses Okun's Law as a theoretical approach to explain the behavior of the unemployment rate. The methodology consisted of an empirical strategy supported in the models of autoregressive distributed lags with cointegration according to the Pesaran and Shin approach. The results suggest that on average for each 1% of product growth there is a contemporary decrease in the unemployment rate of 0.30 percentage points, but there are also effects that persist in the following quarters. It is concluded that the reduction of the unemployment rate in Ecuador implies a political effort and the design of institutions in labor relations between workers and employers to boost the labor market. ; O objetivo deste trabalho é fornecer uma análise econométrica do comportamento do desemprego no Equador entre o segundo trimestre de 2007 e o quarto trimestre de 2017. O trabalho utiliza a Lei de Okun como uma abordagem teórica para explicar o comportamento da taxa de desemprego. A metodologia consistiu em uma estratégia empírica apoiada nos modelos de defasagens autorregressivos distribuídos com cointegração, de acordo com a abordagem de Pesaran e Shin. Os resultados sugerem que, em média, para cada 1% de crescimento do produto, há uma queda contemporânea na taxa de desemprego de 0,30 ponto percentual, mas também há efeitos que persistem nos trimestres seguintes. Conclui-se que a redução da taxa de desemprego no Equador implica um esforço político e o desenho de instituições nas relações de trabalho entre trabalhadores e empregadores para impulsionar o mercado de trabalho.
La aplicación del salario mínimo (SM) en el Perú, conocido desde 1985 como remuneración mínima vital (RMV), se justifica como una herramienta para reducir la desigualdad laboral. Sin embargo, este estudio -que evalúa los efectos del SM sobre dos importantes variables del mercado laboral: ingresos y empleo en la década del 2000- muestra un piso salarial peruano que ha variado en la misma dirección que la tasa de incumplimiento; es decir, mientras más elevada fue la RMV respecto del salario promedio, más se incumplió. El SM no eleva las remuneraciones de los que ganan menos porque no tiene efecto sobre aquellos que ganan por debajo de este piso salarial, ni sobre los trabajadores del sector informal. Sobre el empleo, sus efectos se concentran en el sector informal y en trabajadores que ganan por encima del SM. No se encuentra evidencia de un impacto general en los salarios causado por el crecimiento del SM - llamado efecto "faro" -; por el contrario, estos efectos tienden a ser bastante focalizados. Tampoco hay efectos significativos sobre la probabilidad de mantener el empleo para los trabajadores que ganan alrededor del salario mínimo; sin embargo, tendrá un efecto positivo para los asalariados informales. Este efecto es de tal magnitud que impacta al grupo de asalariados como conjunto. De los resultados, se concluye que la RMV no es un instrumento efectivo para promover la inclusión social.
Credit Rating Agencies (CRA) provide ordinal assessments associated with the ability of companies, governments, institutions or financial assets, to meet debt obligations on time. These ratings are generated by CRAs as an 'objective' information about the financial health of their customers (although, in some cases, the CRAs provide ratings for third parties), bonds emissions, companies, institutions, and some other agents or financial products. This information is based on two components: the first is estimated from financial and economic sources, usually public, and the second on so called 'qualitative' data, which is part of the proprietary know-how of the agencies. But, how an independent investor or institution could evaluate the financial health of a company or a new issue? How can it be done without having to incur in the costs of arranging a contract for this purpose with a CRA? Some statistical methods have been employed with this aim, but as the emergency of Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools are becoming widespread, it is possible to model the rating of a company using public data. In fact, this is possible using public information, available to investors and to financial institutions. The answer to these questions lies in using statistical multivariate methods and AI models to estimate ratings of companies based on information available about their financial and economic data. Most of the literature about financial rating forecasting focuses on bond-rating prediction, and not in company's ratings. The specification of econometric models to forecast the credit rating of a company involves using exogenous financial variables that produce a causal effect on their creditworthiness, and on their capacity to fulfill their future obligations. Public data are available for most of the companies that are traded on financial markets. In Bloomberg's database, this information and the ratings obtained from the main CRAs, are available. Long-term rates are divided in two main categories: investment and non-investment grades using a letter scale. Investment grades starts (in Moody's scale) at 'Aaa', wich is related to the highest credit quality, and, consequently, the lowest expectation of default risk; they reflect and exceptionally strong capacity to fulfil their financial commitments, and they are not future events that can alter this situation; the 'Aa' rating is linked to very high credit quality, and low default risk. Following it is the 'A' level, associated to high credit quality and low possibility of default, but can be influenced by changes in the business environment. Finally, the 'Baa' level is associated with medium risk. The junk grade level starts at 'Ba' and 'B', which is associated to high risk of default, the 'Caa' and 'Ca' to highest risks, and finally, level 'C' is associated to firms in default, that is, with the presence of credit events of failure to pay interest or principal of a loan or security when due, and the debtor is unable to meet the legal obligation to debt repayment. The information provided by these values is ordinal, and not directly associated with probabilities of default. Moreover, more troubling is that the risk increase linked to a notch downgrade is not constant along the scale; more still, these variations are not comparable between them, and still less, they cannot be quantified. Some Multivariate Analysis methods used to estimate rates produce less accurate classifications; for example, Discriminant Analysis reaches only 20.7% of correct forecasted ratings, but only 16.7% when using jackknife methods to exclude one case at the time, as trial set. Multivariate logit (or similar models) are in the same range. While non-linear methods, such as Artificial Neural Networks, provide much better results, if a sufficiently large sample is used to train the model. The first main objective proposed is to elaborate models that can reproduce S&P's and Moody's long-term ratings using publicity available data. The second main objective is to analyze the phenomenon called 'rate inflation', that is, the attribution of a certain level of rating above the 'objective level' which would be generate by an impartial observer. As Moody's ratings tend to be lower that those obtained by S&P's, these differences are considered as an evidence of rating inflation. This has been studied, also, in different economic sectors. Data employed come from two random samples of over one thousand companies each, for the years 2010 to 2018, and from thirteen economic sectors
The growing empirical literature on the analysis of civil war has recently included the study of conflict duration at the cross-country level. This paper presents, for the first time, a within-country analysis of the determinants of violence duration. I focus on the experience of the Colombian armed conflict. While the conflict has been active for about five decades, local violence ebbs and flows and areas experiencing continuous conflict coexist with places that have been able to resile and where violence is mostly absent. I examine a wide range of factors potentially associated with violence duration at the municipal level, including scale variables, geographical conditions, economic and social variables, institutions and state presence, inequality, government intervention, and victimization variables. I characterize a few variables robustly correlated with the persistence of localized conflict, both across specifications and using different econometric models of duration analysis.
When presidents do not run for reelection in democracies, the electoral connection is not straightforward. It is not obvious in this case how voters' evaluations of leaders get transformed into votes for political parties, nor how political campaigns affect such a relationship. The argument is that voters' evaluations of presidents, which can be measured by presidential approval ratings, work as an information shortcut about the future performance of the candidate; as campaigns generate information about contenders, approval of the retiring president matters relatively less in the voting decision. Based on econometric analysis & four nationwide polls conducted from October 2005 to June 2006, the article tests these hypotheses using the case of the 2006 Mexican presidential election. Adapted from the source document.
In Colombia, the coexistence of democracy and armed conflict is considered to be a paradox (Posada 2006). This work intends to shed light on the consequences of armed conflict on the local levels of government, particularly on the effectiveness of the Colombian municipalities in providing basic services. In order to do that, I use municipal data from 2005 and, through an econometric analysis that includes spatial correlations, evaluate the impact of armed conflict on several health, education and basic sanitation indicators. The results show that armed conflict has affected the government effectiveness in providing such services. This leads one to think that, at least at the local levels, armed conflict would be putting at risk one of the basic principles of decentralization, the capacity to satisfy citizens' needs through public service provision. (Colombia Internacional/ GIGA)
This paper combines reference point techniques and econometric analyses to provide the profile of non-life insurers that simultaneously optimize the strategic growth, profitability, and risk goals. The econometric analyses provide the relevant relations among the variables. Non-life insurers from 33 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries over a six-year period are analyzed. A cluster analysis allows forming groups of countries according to the non-life insurance penetration ratio. Several scenarios, which are characterized by the maturity of the market and the crisis/non-crisis situation, are studied. The results indicate that the highest level of profitability (growth) is linked to scenarios with a medium (low) level of maturity and booming times. They also show that the lowest level of risk that is representative of good performance is associated with scenarios where markets have a high level of maturity and crisis times. We find that a higher recommendable size is associated with more mature markets. The results also indicate that reinsurance utilization is linked to a crisis time. We additionally find that the recommendable level of capitalization differs significantly among scenarios. ; This research was partially funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness(Project PID2019-104263RB-C42), the Spanish Ministry of Science, Technology, and Universities (Project RTI2018-097620-B-100), the Regional Government of Andalucía (Project P18-RT-1566),and by the EU ERDF operative program (Project UMA18-FEDERJA-065).The Open Access publication has been funded by the University of Málaga (Spain) and by theCBUA.
This paper presents an analysis to quantify the communication on fiscal policy in Colombia based on information available in the news about the government deficit issued by the main newspapers in the country. An index on the fiscal position is constructed and, by means of an econometric analysis, its effects on the public debt securities returns for the period 2010-2018 are estimated. The results indicate that the greater the fiscal deficit indicated in the fiscal news, the greater the return required in public debt, although the effects are only important in short-term securities ; Este trabajo presenta un análisis para cuantificar la comunicación sobre la política fiscal en Colombia, a partir de información disponible en las noticias sobre el déficit del gobierno que emiten los principales periódicos del país. Es construido un índice sobre la postura fiscal y, mediante un análisis econométrico, son estimados sus efectos sobre los retornos de los títulos de deuda pública para el período 2010-2018. Los resultados indican que cuanto mayor es el déficit fiscal señalizado en las noticias fiscales, mayor es el retorno exigido en la deuda pública, aunque los efectos solo son importantes en los títulos de corto plazo. ; Maestría
Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Empresariales. Ciencias en Negocios Internacionales ; The main objective of this research is to identify the influencing factors of the bilateral commercial flows between Mexico and the European Union, during de period of 1994-2015. It gets an econometric analysis with panel data using a gravity model. The gravity model assumes that the trade between two countries has a direct proportion to their economic mass, in this case measuring the GDP, and inverse proportion of the distance between this two. Through an econometric estimation with the method of Least Squares, is obtained as a result that the GDP, the distance, the FTA EU-MX and the real exchange rate, are important influencing factors on the commercial flow. ; Con el objetivo de identificar qué factores influyeron en los flujos de comercio bilateral entre México y la Unión Europea, durante el periodo 1994-2015, se llevó a cabo un análisis econométrico empleando un modelo gravitacional con base de datos panel. El modelo gravitacional supone que el intercambio comercial entre dos economías será directamente proporcional a su masa económica, en este caso medida por el PIB, e inversamente proporcional a la distancia que hay de por medio. Al realizar la estimación econométrica por el método de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios se obtuvo como resultado que el PIB, la distancia, el TLCUEM y el tipo de cambio real influyeron de manera significativa en el flujo comercial estudiado.
