Suchergebnisse

1. Introduction -- Part I. Social learning : 2. Bayesian tools : The bayesian framework ; Binary and Gaussian information ; Private signals and beliefs ; Martingales -- 3. Social learning with a common memory : A canonical model of social learning ; Efficient learning ; Observation noise ; Extensions -- 4. Cascades and herds : The basic model of herding ; The standard model with bounded beliefs ; The convergence of beliefs ; Herds and the slow convergence of beliefs ; Pricing the informational externality ; Crashes and booms -- 5. Limited memories : The sequential model with sampling ; The welfare-improving principle ; Sampling in a very large population ; Social learning or sampling in a large population? -- 6. Delays : The simplest model ; A general model with heterogeneous beliefs ; Properties -- 7. More delays : The length of a period ; Continuous times ; Buildup of private information ; Observation of payoffs -- 8. Outcomes : Incomplete learning ; The determinant of economic success: luck or effort? ; Complete learning with a diversity of private beliefs -- 9. Networks and diffusion : Optimization and diffusion of innovations ; Learning in networks -- 10. Words : Advice by one expert ; Larger sets of states and messages ; Panel of experts ; The receiver does not make the evaluation -- Part II. Coordination : 11. Guessing to coordinate : Overview ; Eductive stability in a standard market ; Strategic complementarities ; Speculative attacks against a fixed exchange rate -- 12. Learning to coordinate : A distribution with a cluster ; Observation noise -- 13. Delays and payoff externalities : Strategic substitutability ; Strategic complementaries -- Part III. Financial herding : 14.l Sequences of financial trades : Learning in the model of Glosten and Milgrom ; Herds ; Avalanches ; Herding in auctions -- 15. Gaussian financial markets : Actions in the CARA-Gauss model ; Markets ; The convergence of beliefs ; Multiple equilibria, crashes, and booms -- 16. Financial frenzies : Speculative attacks against a fixed exchange rate ; Information delays in financial markets ; The crash of a bubble.