Suchergebnisse

Globalizacija je proces svjetske ekonomske integracije koji vodi do globalne ekonomije bez granica. U radu se procjenjuje utjecaj globalizacije na gospodarski rast u slučaju zemalja Europske monetarne unije (EMU). Autori su koristili tri komponente globalizacije – ekonomsku, socijalnu i političku globalizaciju. Pooled Mean Group estimator (PMG) korišten je za procjenu dugoročne i kratkoročne veze između globalizacije i ekonomskog rasta. Rezultati su pokazali da u kratkom roku ekonomska i socijalna globalizacija ima pozitivan utjecaj na gospodarski rast, dok politička globalizacija negativno utječe na ekonomski rast zemalja EMU. Ekonomska globalizacija dugoročno ima statistički značajan pozitivan utjecaj na ekonomski rast zemalja EMU, dok društvena i politička globalizacija negativno utječe na ekonomski rast zemalja EMU. Autori preporučuju, za svaku zemlju, pojedinačni pristup prilikom prihvaćanja globalizacijskog procesa. Pristup ovisi o fazi razvoja zemlje, socijalnoj i političkoj pozadini. Jedan bi pristup mogao biti evolucijski za zemlje u razvoju i najmanje razvijene zemlje. Drugi pristup bi mogao biti brži način prihvaćanja globalizacije za razvijene zemlje. ; Globalization is a process of world economic integration which leads to the global economy without borders. The paper estimates the impact of globalization on economic growth in the case of European Monetary Union countries (EMU). Authors used three components of globalization – economic, social, and political globalization. Pooled Mean Group estimator (PMG) was used to estimate the long-run and short-run relationship between globalization and economic growth. The results showed that in the short-run, economic and social globalization has a positive impact on economic growth, while political globalization has a negative effect on the economic growth of EMU countries. In the long-run, economic globalization has a statistically significant positive impact on the economic growth of EMU countries, while social and political globalization has a negative effect on the economic growth of EMU countries. Authors recommend, for each country, case by case approach in accepting the globalization process. The approach depends on the country's development stage, social, and political background. Thus, the approach for developing and least developed countries could be an evolutionary way, while for the developed ones a faster way of acceptances of globalization, for developed countries.

Budući da postoje različiti načini otkrivanja namjera središnjih banaka, pojavljuje se jednostavno istraživačko pitanje, koje se razmatra u ovoj studiji. Je li komponenta očekivanja potrošača usmjerena na budućnost povezana s načinom na koji središnje banke otkrivaju i koriste prognoze? Istraživanje obuhvaća šest zemalja: Češku, Mađarsku, Rumunjsku, Poljsku, Švedsku i Veliku Britaniju, u razdoblju od 2001. do 2016. godine. Naša metodologija sastoji se od kvantifikacije očekivanja, testova racionalnosti očekivanja, procjene stupnja njihove usmjerenosti na budućnost, indeksne procjene prognoziranja centralnih banaka o transparentnosti i važnosti prognoze u monetarnoj politici, kao i korelacijskog ispitivanja dalekovidnosti monetarne politike i pogreške očekivanja. Na temelju dovršenog istraživanja povezujemo rezultate analize usmjerenosti na budućnost s indeksnom procjenom ciljanog prognoziranja inflacije. Rezultati su različiti. Najviši stupanj usmjerenosti očekivanja na budućnost nalazi se u Velikoj Britaniji i Švedskoj. Očekivanja čeških potrošača su manje usmjerena na budućnost, dok je uključenost centralnih banaka u ciljano prognoziranje inflacije usporediva sa švedskim slučajem. Dvije zemlje nemaju komponentu usmjerenu na buduća očekivanja potrošača. Studija daje vrijedan doprinos postojećoj literaturi jer predstavlja novi pristup analizi odnosa između prognoze i ciljanog prognoziranja inflacije i očekivanja usmjerenih na budućnost. ; Since there are different ways of revealing central banks' intentions, a simple research question, which we address in this study, arises. Is the forward-looking (FL) component of consumers' expectations related to the way in which the forecast is revealed and used by central banks? The research covers six countries: The Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Poland, Sweden, and the UK, over the period of 2001-2016. Our methodology consists of the quantification of expectations, tests for rationality of expectations, estimation of the degree of their FL, the index-based assessment of central banks' forecasting transparency and importance of forecasts in monetary policy, as well as correlation examination of forward-lookingness of monetary policy and expectation errors. Based on the completed research, we link the results of the FL analysis to the index-based assessment of inflation forecasts targeting. The results are varied. The highest degree of expectations' FL is found for the UK and Sweden. Czech consumers' expectations are less FL, whereas central banks' involvement in inflation forecast targeting is comparable to the Swedish case. For two countries we found no forward-looking component in consumers' expectations. The study makes a valid contribution to the existing literature as it presents a novel approach to analysing the relation between forecasts and inflation forecast targeting and expectations.

U ovom radu analiziraju se čimbenici koji određuju izravna strana ulaganja, posebice uloga prirodnih resursa, te gospodarskih i političkih karakteristika zemlje domaćina. Istraživanje se proširuje na postojeću literaturu usredotočujući se na četiri široke skupine zemalja: napredne, tržišta u nastajanju, zemlje u razvoju i tranzicijska gospodarstva, a panel podataka za razdoblje od 1996. do 2016. godine uključuje više od 100 zemalja. U radu se također istražuje scenarij tijekom velikih ekonomskih kriza – azijske krize, Dotcom Bubble, globalne financijske krize i krize državnog duga. Rezultati pokazuju da se s vremenom odrednice ulaznih izravnih stranih ulaganja mijenjaju i da obrasci nisu ujednačeni u četiri skupine zemalja. Nadalje, u radu se uspoređuju odrednice dviju glavnih skupine zemalja, a to su: tržište u nastajanju i zemlje u razvoju provođenjem Chow testa uz jednake koeficijente. Vidljivo je da gospodarski rast i veličina tržišta imaju snažniji pozitivni utjecaj na priljev izravnih stranih ulaganja na tržišta u nastajanju nego na gospodarstva u razvoju. Također, gospodarstva s tržištima u nastajanju su tijekom globalne financijske krize doživjela manji priljev izravnih stranih ulaganja u usporedbi s gospodarstvima u razvoju. Ovi rezultati imaju važne implikacije za donositelje politika jer mogu pomoći u prepoznavanju regionalnih čimbenika koji privlače priljev kapitala. ; This paper analyses the factors determining inward foreign direct investment, particularly the role of natural endowments and economic and political characteristics of the host country. It expands on the existing literature by focusing on four broad groups of countries: advanced , emerging-market, developing and transition economies, comprising of more than 100 countries in a panel data setting for the period 1996 – 2016. The paper also examines the scenario during the major economic crises ‒ Asian crisis, Dotcom Bubble, Global Financial crisis and Sovereign Debt crisis. The results indicate that the determinants of inward foreign direct investment have changed over time and that the patterns are not uniform across the four country groups. Furthermore, the paper compares the determinants of two major country groups, namely ‒ emerging-market and developing countries by conducting Chow test for equality of coefficients. It is seen that the economic growth and market size has a stronger positive influence on inward FDI flow to emerging-market than to developing economies. Also, emerging-market economies experienced a smaller flow of FDI during Global Financial crisis compared to developing economies. These results have important implications for the policy makers as they can help to identify the regional factors that attract capital inflows.

The US economy is facing the first big financial crisis in the 21st century. The author points out that the current crisis is much different from the previous ones by its characteristics, causes, consequences it produces on the world economy & international financial system in particular. The problems that were noticeable in the US loan market in the second half of 2007, which have escalated into a crisis of the financial system in 2008 creating instability in the world financial markets, were mostly caused by the losses on the American real estate market. For the fact that the highly integrated world economy has enabled rapidly & easily transmission the effects of real & monetary trends, reducing, on the other hand, the countries' prospects to protect their economies & populations from their effects it is evident that the way the US manages its financial system has the exceptional significance beyond USA, too. As the increasing number of countries is facing with direct or indirect effects of the current crisis it is in the interest of all those that undertaking actions to stop further negative repercussions on their national economies & ensure global economy growth. Tables, Graphs, References. Adapted from the source document.

Upravljanje financijskim tokovima iziskuje odgovarajuću povezanost deviznih rezervi, inozemnog zaduživanja i kontrole kapitala. Ove politike smatraju se alatom za predviđanje naglih zastoja (SS). Stoga se u ovoj analizi utvrđuje pojavljivanje naglih zastoja / prekida financijskih tokova na uzorku od 200 zemalja u periodu od 1985. - 2019. godine. Vjerojatnost SS-a određuje se pomoću logit modela. Rezultati ukazuju na činjenicu da efektivno upravljanje smanjuje vjerojatnost naglih zastoja. Provedena je analiza utjecaja rizika prelijevanja na bruto domaći proizvod, potrošnju, investicije i nezaposlenost. Rezultati pokazuju štetne utjecaje na ove makroekonomske varijable. Nalazi potvrđuju da zemlje sa zadovoljavajućom razinom deviznih rezervi, malim inozemnim zaduživanjem i koje započinju s kontrolom kapitala prije pojave naglih zastoja financijskih tokova manje pogađa rizik prelijevanja nego li gospodarstva u nastajanju, jer su znatno ranjivija od bogatih gospodarstava. ; Managing capital flows needs an appropriate association of foreign exchange reserves, foreign borrowing, and capital control. These policies are considered as a tool to predict sudden stops (SS). Consequently, this analysis identifies the occurrences of SS for a sample of 200 countries within the period 1985 - 2019. The probability of SS is determined through a logit model. Results suggest that effective management reduces the probability of sudden stops. A spillover risk influence analysis was conducted on the gross domestic product, consumption, investment, and unemployment. The results show harmful impacts on these macroeconomic variables. The findings demonstrate that countries with a satisfactory level of exchange foreign reserves, small foreign borrowing, and initiating capital controls before the occurrence of SS, are less touched by the spillover risk than emergent economies which are more vulnerable than rich economies.

In the 1960s, the golden age of development in Europe came to an end, the socialist economies failed to adapt to the new situation and began to reform their economic system. The Yugoslav federal leadership announced economic reforms in 1961 and 1965, considered to be the best programme of economic reform and modernization during the institutional development of the Second socialist Yugoslavia. The self management system was based on the premises that the state control of the economy and planning should be replaced by contractual bargains among socially-owned enterprises, indicative planning and market mechanism. Kraigher's reform (1965) strengthened the developmental principles and the position of industry as the leading economic activity on the one hand and stabilisation programme on the other. However, the stabilisation policy failed to live up to expectations, and its restrictive measures created new imbalances. Kraigher's reform deepened the economic volatility, economic growth declined, while inflation and foreign debt swelled rapidly. The federal government made no particular efforts to remedy the situation and resolve the problems. In the late 1960s, the Yugoslav economic miracle came to an end. The communist authorities were preparing the grounds for constitutional ammendments, and enforced the adoption where federal communist leadership disciplined the proponents of economic reform and liberal market policies. The socialist economies, like modern EU states (Great Recession 2008-2013), failed to respond to the crisis immediately and with resolute action. This was a key reason for the disintegration of the Second Yugoslavia and could be the new form of balkanisation of EU. Adapted from the source document.

This opening address at a scientific symposium on the future of the state, held in Zagreb, May 10-11, 2002, discusses the activities of the "Konrad Adenauer" Instit in promoting democratic states all over the world. The Instit has offices in over 60 countries & carries out projects in over 120 countries. Its three objectives are: (1) the support of the development & solidification of democratic regimes, (2) the promotion of socially fair market economies, & (3) the provision of regional assistance during transitions to democratic & free market states. The Instit's stand on issues of civil society, free market, & solidarity is clarified, explaining how it attempts to promote liberal, competition-based economy in welfare states. The formation of the European Union does not cancel the need for the state as a political unit, but rather, makes its functioning more effective & secure for its citizens. The similarities & differences between Croatia & Germany as national states are briefly considered from the perspective of the symposium's leading theme. Z. Dubiel

With the publication of the work "Potential GNP: its measurement and significance" (Okun, 1962), the concept of Okun's law became an important part of global macroeconomic issues. The empirically determined connection between the national product and unemployment, which is manifested through Okun's law, belongs to a fundamental part of economic empiricism. Gross domestic product and unemployment are among the main macroeconomic variables that reflect the movement of a country's economy. The countries we observe in this paper went through a transition period in the 1990s, namely a period of great economic, institutional and economic changes. Precisely because of these changes, we are interested in comparing the Slovak and Croatian economies and testing Okun's law. The aim of this paper is to show whether Okun's law is valid for Croatia and Slovakia, or whether there is a correlation between the observed variables for these countries. The final purpose of the paper is to show whether there are similarities between the two observed economies when it comes to Okun's law. We will show this similarity based on the analysis of data for the period from 2000 to 2018 using vector autoregression. The results of the research have been presented at the end of the paper and they are related to the implications of economic policy in the sphere of the labour market that directly affect economic growth and development. ; Objavom djela "Potential GNP: its measurement and significance" (Okun, 1962) koncept Okunova zakona postaje važan dio globalne makroekonomske problematike. Empirijski utvrđena povezanost nacionalnog proizvoda i nezaposlenosti koja se očituje kroz Okunov zakon temeljnim dijelom pripada ekonomskoj empiriji. Bruto domaći proizvod i nezaposlenost su među glavnim makroekonomskim varijablama koje prikazuju kretanje gospodarstva jedne zemlje. Zemlje koje promatramo u ovome radu su 90-ih godina prošlog stoljeća prošle kroz tranzicijsko razdoblje odnosno razdoblje velikih gospodarskih, institucionalnih i gospodarskih promjena. Upravo zbog tih promjena zanimljiva nam je usporedba slovačkoga i hrvatskoga gospodarstva te testiranje Okunova zakona. Cilj ovoga rada je prikazati vrijedi li Okunov zakon za Hrvatsku i Slovačku, odnosno postoji li međusobna povezanost promatranih varijabli za te zemlje. Svrha rada je prikazati postoje li sličnosti između dva promatrana gospodarstva kada je u pitanju Okunov zakon. Ta sličnost će se prikazati na temelju analize podataka za razdoblje od 2000. do 2018. godine primjenom vektorske autoregresije. Na kraju rada prikazani su rezultati istraživanja te su povezani s implikacijama ekonomske politike u sferi tržišta rada koje izravno utječu na ekonomski rast i razvoj.

In this article, the author presents the content and principal ideas of Strpic's book on Karl Marx and the political economy of modernity, Karl Marx i politicka ekonomija Moderne. The author analyzes the book, its ideas and its significance within the context of an evaluation of the status and trends in political and economic thought in Croatia during a time of so-called transition, i.e. the process of restoration of crony capitalism. He criticizes the neoliberal school and its Economics, which has pushed aside and replaced Political Economy in the instruction at many university social science departments. The author considers Strpic's book a major contribution to the reaffirmation of Political Economy to its theoretical and scholarly status. He faults Strpic for not including in his analysis the results of scholarly research conducted by Croatian economists whose views complement his own. The current crisis of the neoliberal school, its Economics and the economic crisis in Croatia may serve as a means to reaffirm Political Economy, or rather to turn back from Economics in favor of Political Economy in scholarship and in the education of political scientists, legal scholars and economists. The author puts forth the thesis on the need to separate Political Economy from ideocracy. In this context, he advocates the reaffirmation of Political Economy as both a scientific discipline and as a skill in the management of national economies. Adapted from the source document.

Svrha ovog rada je analizirati reakcije CROBEX indeksa Zagrebačke burze na odabrane makroekonomske najave u vrlo kratkim vremenskim intervalima. U radu se koriste varijable stopa prinosa od 5 minuta od rujna 2017. do ožujka 2018. kao i 25 makroekonomskih najava. Nakon pažljive provedbe faze pripreme podataka, utvrđena je regresija za koju se koriste dummy varijable koje predstavljaju točno vrijeme objavljivanja. U obzir je uzeta heteroskedastičnost i autokorelacijske konzistentne (HAC) procjene zbog specifičnosti unutardnevnih podataka i robusnosti rezultata. Naši rezultati upućuju na to da su za unutardnevna kratka razdoblja reakcije tržišta statistički značajne. Stoga se zaključuje da se makroekonomska politika (monetarna ili fiskalna) odražava na stope prinosa hrvatskih dioničkih indeksa. Navedeno potvrđuje hipotezu učinkovitog tržišta i u skladu su sa zaključcima sličnih studija razvijenih gospodarstava. ; The purpose of this study is to analyse Zagreb Stock Exchange CROBEX Index reactions to selected macroeconomic announcements within ultra-short time intervals. We utilize 5-minute rates of returns from September 2017 to March 2018 and 25 macroeconomic announcements. After carefully arranging the data, we ran the regression with dummy variables capturing the exact announcement times. We used heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimations in order to account for specific characteristics of intraday data and to retain the robustness of the results. Our results indicate that, for short intraday periods, some reactions are statistically significant, but the majority stays insignificant. These conclusions support the semi-strong form of the efficient-market hypothesis and are in line with inferences of similar studies of advanced economies.

Svrha ovog rada je analizirati reakcije CROBEX indeksa Zagrebačke burze na odabrane makroekonomske najave u vrlo kratkim vremenskim intervalima. U radu se koriste varijable stopa prinosa od 5 minuta od rujna 2017. do ožujka 2018. kao i 25 makroekonomskih najava. Nakon pažljive provedbe faze pripreme podataka, utvrđena je regresija za koju se koriste dummy varijable koje predstavljaju točno vrijeme objavljivanja. U obzir je uzeta heteroskedastičnost i autokorelacijske konzistentne (HAC) procjene zbog specifičnosti unutardnevnih podataka i robusnosti rezultata. Naši rezultati upućuju na to da su za unutardnevna kratka razdoblja reakcije tržišta statistički značajne. Stoga se zaključuje da se makroekonomska politika (monetarna ili fiskalna) odražava na stope prinosa hrvatskih dioničkih indeksa. Navedeno potvrđuje hipotezu učinkovitog tržišta i u skladu su sa zaključcima sličnih studija razvijenih gospodarstava. ; The purpose of this study is to analyse Zagreb Stock Exchange CROBEX Index reactions to selected macroeconomic announcements within ultra-short time intervals. We utilize 5-minute rates of returns from September 2017 to March 2018 and 25 macroeconomic announcements. After carefully arranging the data, we ran the regression with dummy variables capturing the exact announcement times. We used heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimations in order to account for specific characteristics of intraday data and to retain the robustness of the results. Our results indicate that, for short intraday periods, some reactions are statistically significant, but the majority stays insignificant. These conclusions support the semi-strong form of the efficient-market hypothesis and are in line with inferences of similar studies of advanced economies.

The author's starting point is the assumption that the idea of the Christian Republic, suppressed by the Enlightenment, entered the French 18th-century discourse through its two secularized versions: the "Great Plan" put forward by Duke of Sully in Royal Economies (1638) and the Project for Perpetual Peace in Europe by Charles-Irenee Castel, the abbot of Saint-Pierre (1717). While the "Great Plan" aimed at establishing a secularized European peace alliance under the hegemony of France, Saint-Pierre strove to remove all hegemonic facets of the plan and establish peace according to the principles of equality of sovereign states. In the second half of the 18th century, Gabriel Bonnot de Mably and Jean-Jacques Rousseau, in reaction to the Seven-Year War, assumed different standpoints regarding the heritage of Sully and Saint-Pierre: although both deemed useful to build upon Saint-Pierre's pacifist thought, they rejected his way of establishing a Christian Republic in Europe as essentially Utopian. The former saw the only way of pacifying Europe in federalization under the hegemony of a single federal republic. The latter however rejected this solution as too risky and too difficult to carry out, preferring a return to the old theory of balance of forces, which enables small, autarchic and belligerent republics, that must always take into account the certainty that they could be attacked at any time, to establish only temporary and loose connections with other (equally small) republics within the frameworks of defensive alliances. Adapted from the source document.

Zaposlene žene sklonije su kompulzivnoj kupovini što može dovesti do značajnog povećanja izdataka za potrošnju kućanstava. U ovom radu istražuje se utjecaj promjene broja zaposlenih žena na potrošnju kućanstva po glavi stanovnika. Testira se hipoteza da promjena u broju zaposlenih žena ima značajan utjecaj na izdatke finalne potrošnje kućanstva per capita, zbog različitih sklonosti potrošnji, a provedena je empirijska analiza temeljena na skupu panel podataka 36 gospodarstava OECD-a u razdoblju 2000. – 2016. Rezultati pokazuju da promjena broja zaposlenih žena povećava rashode kućanstva per capita. Nadalje, rezultati impliciraju da životna dob zaposlenih žena ima vrlo značajnu ulogu u donošenju odluka o potrošnji što može dovesti do značajnih razlika u ukupnim izdacima potrošnje. Ovi rezultati ukazuju na važnost razumijevanja činjenice da promjena broja zaposlenih žena utječe i na planiranje ukupne potrošnje i formuliranje politika gospodarskog rasta. ; Working women have more compulsive buying tendencies which can lead to a significant increase in their household consumption expenditures. This study investigates the effects of changes in the number of working women on household per capita consumption. We test the hypothesis that changes in the number of working women have a discernible impact on household final per capita consumption expenditures, due to their differing consumption propensities, by doing an empirical analysis based on panel data set of 36 OECD economies within the period 2000-2016. The results indicate that changes in the number of working women increase the household per capita consumption expenditures. The result also implies that age plays a significant role in working women consumption decision making and may lead to significant differences in aggregate consumption expenditure. These findings suggest the importance of understanding changes in the number of working women in planning for aggregate consumption mobilization and in the formulation of aggregate growth policies.

U radu se proučavaju odrednice potražnje za proizvodima životnih osiguranja u trinaest zemalja Europske unije. Očekivane determinante potražnje čini šesnaest faktora koji su podijeljeni na makroekonomske, demografske, socijalne i institucionalne varijable. Osnovni je cilj rada identificirati varijable koje najbolje objašnjavaju varijacije u potražnji za životnim osiguranjem te zaključiti mogu li nositelji ekonomske politike doprinijeti razvoju tržišta životnog osiguranja. U tu se svrhu procjenjuje neuravnoteženi panel model s fiksnim efektom za razdoblje od 1995. do 2014. godine. Najznačajnijim varijablama pokazale su se makroekonomske varijable, posebice bruto domaći proizvod po stanovniku. Pri kreaciji svojih proizvoda, društva za osiguranje će trebati uzeti u obzir demografska kretanja i gospodarsko stanje u zemljama, ali kako je i analiza pokazala, uložiti napore da educiraju stanovništvo o beneficijama životnog osiguranja te o potrebi za dugoročnom štednjom. ; The paper analyzes determinants of demand for life insurance products in thirteen countries of the European Union. The expected demand determinants cover sixteen factors divided into macroeconomic, demographic, social and institutional variables. The main aim of the paper is to identify the variables that best explain variations in demand for life insurance and to draw a conclusion as to whether policy makers can contribute to the development of the life insurance market. For this purpose, an unbalanced panel model with a fixed effect for the period from 1995 to 2014 was estimated. The most important variables were macroeconomic ones, especially gross domestic product per capita. Insurance companies need to take into account demographic trends and existing economic situations in the respective economies when developing their products, and as analysis indicates, they have to make efforts in educating the population concerning the benefits of life insurance and the need for long-term savings.