The central objective of this collective work is to analyze the results of the 2018 presidential elections, within their historical context and at a level of disaggregation that allows us to account for the development of the electoral process at the level of the federal entities. This chapter presents the basic contents of the statistical framework on the results of the elections for the Presidency of the Republic that were used as a general reference for the use of researchers responsible for the analysis of each entity.
El objetivo de este trabajo es comparar, desde una perspectiva cuantitativa, los diversos procesos locales realizados en junio de 2016, de manera central las doce elecciones para gobernador. Nuestra fuente fundamental para este análisis no será otra que los sitios de los organismos locales electorales (OPLES's) donde se concentran los datos oficiales de los resultados de los procesos electorales celebrados en fechas recientes (cuyas votaciones relativas son reportadas en el Anexo 1). Recurrimos en ellos a los datos que corresponden a los más recientes comicios: los de junio de 2016 y su antecedente inmediato, los de julio de 2010. Los puntos que se atienden en este texto son: la comparación entre los niveles de participación-abstención en las distintas entidades; la comparación entre las votaciones logradas por las distintas opciones electorales en los comicios, tanto entre las diferentes entidades como en distintos momentos en el tiempo (2010 y 2016); un análisis de la competitividad registrada en estas elecciones conforme indicadores convencionales; y finalmente la comparación de los niveles de volatilidad entre las elecciones más recientes y las previas.
Political legitimacy appeals to a subjective substrate that compromises the two extremes of a relationship. From the perspective of those who must obey, it will be legitimate for a government to access power and exercise in compliance with the requirements that they believe they must meet to send. From the perspective of the person in charge, the government that accesses power and what it exercises will be conceived as legitimate, seeing what it obeys that meets the requirements to command. The elections defined the right to access power and invariably the recognition of the cleanliness of the elections depends on whether their results coincide with the specific policies of the individual. There are four conditions that could be established to separate the elections whose results are controversial from those that are not: one, the effective guarantees of respect for the integrity of the losers and for the subsequent unhindered participation of the contestants in political life; two, the narrowness of the difference between the result and the requirements established to grant the victory; three, the provision of timely, continuous, transparent and verifiable information mechanisms on the results, such as the collection of preliminary electoral results and statistical rapid counting exercises that anticipate the distribution of votes within known margins of precision; and four, maintain an electoral authority that can be an arbitrator who exercises his functions impartially, by not representing the interests of any party or being against any party.
El objetivo de este ensayo es analizar y evaluar una colección de encuestas publicadas antes de las elecciones de ejecutivos locales (gobernador de un estado o Jefe de Gobierno en la Ciudad de México) que se celebraron en México durante 2018, haciendo uso de diversas herramientas propias del análisis político, estadístico y demoscópico, para cotejar las estimaciones por encuesta contra los resultados oficiales de los comicios, con el fin de conocer el rendimiento de las mediciones y determinar algunos posibles factores determinantes del mismo.
Much has been said about the impact of the Great Recession (2008-2009) on the conditions and foundations of democracy, especially in the Western world. But has it really been like this? Today we have various options to approach the comparative study of the state of democracy in the world through wide-ranging cross-sectional and longitudinal sections. Perhaps one of the most successful is that of Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem), whose approach to conceptualizing and measuring democracy is to provide a data set that attempts to reflect the complexity of the concept of democracy as a system of government that includes, but it goes beyond the simple presence of elections. For this reason, the V-Dem project collects data to measure different principles of democracy, one of which is the electoral one. In principle, the main finding of this documentary effort leads its authors to affirm that "autocratization", a word with which they call the decrease in democratic features, has accelerated in the world, particularly when the existing state at the time of The Great Recession will occur with the present situation in 2019. This has to be reflected in the state of the principles in the electoral question. Detailing the scope and characteristics of this loss of democratic features in general and its manifestation in the electoral sphere throughout this century and between two ten-year cuts (2000-2009 and 2010-2019) is the task that we propose to carry out in this paper. This, knowing that 2020 will represent a new watershed in the conditions for the development of democracy and elections in the world, given the experience of the "Great Confinement", with a practice and hopefully temporary suspension of electoral exercises in the world and a return uncertain at the polls in which the repercussions of this event will gradually be seen in the spirit of the electoral bodies of the world.
